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Qingsong Wen

Publications and source records attributed to Qingsong Wen.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
arXiv2026

TimeSage-EV: A Live Benchmark for Agentic Time Series Analysis in Evolving Environments

Time series analysis in high-stakes domains relies on recurring data releases, where new observations can alter the evidence base and the validity of later conclusions. Existing time series QA benchmarks mostly rely on fixed snapshots, leaving temporal validity and cutoff-aware evidence use unevaluated. We introduce TimeSage-EV, a live benchmark for agentic time series analysis in evolving environments. It tracks 60 real institutional scenarios across 6 domains, comprising 1,485 scenario-period QA pairs from Feb 2023 to May 2026 and spanning monthly, weekly, daily, and irregular release cadences. At each period, large language model (LLM) agents receive time series data and source reports, while the withheld target release provides ground truth. TimeSage-EV evaluates state identification, data summarization, and outlook reasoning. Experiments with frontier LLM agents and TimeSage-1.0, a novel self-evolving agent with a reusable analytical skill library, reveal significant performance gaps across model tiers and recurring failures in temporal validity, exogenous context use, and adaptation. We release TimeSage-EV as a research resource with monthly updates, code, a leaderboard, and failure-mode analyses.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

GradientStabilizer:Fix the Norm, Not the Gradient

Training instability in modern deep learning systems is frequently triggered by rare but extreme gradient-norm spikes, which can induce oversized parameter updates, corrupt optimizer state, and lead to slow recovery or divergence. Widely used safeguards such as gradient clipping mitigate these failures but require threshold tuning and indiscriminately truncate large updates. We propose GradientStabilizer, a lightweight, drop-in gradient transform that preserves the instantaneous gradient direction while replacing the update magnitude with a statistically stabilized estimate derived from running gradient-norm statistics. We prove that the resulting stabilized magnitude is uniformly bounded on spike steps, independent of the spike size, and show how this boundedness controls optimizer state evolution in adaptive methods. Across LLM pre-training (FP16), quantization-aware pre-training (FP4), ImageNet classification, reinforcement learning, and time-series forecasting, GradientStabilizer consistently improves training stability, widens stable learning-rate regions, and reduces divergence relative to clipping-based baselines, even substantially reducing Adam's sensitivity to weight-decay strength. Code will be released soon.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Bridging AI and Energy Forecasting: An Autonomous Workflow with Customized Toolkit

Energy forecasting is crucial for the power grid, but fundamentally different from general time series analysis: it highly relies on covariates like meteorological factors, and its goals must align with actual power grid operations, such as risk assessment and system reliability. In order to bridge the huge gap between advanced machine learning forecasting models and actual power grid demand, this paper proposes an autonomous forecasting workflow based on LLMs. As a virtual analyst, the agent replaces tedious manual adjustments by autonomously analyzing data features, dynamically orchestrating optimal forecasting pipelines, and generating actionable analysis reports for decision-makers. The carefully arranged pipeline directly addresses the demand of the power grid through probabilistic forecasting for uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the framework acts as an automated testbed, enabling seamless A/B testing of specific algorithmic plugins across various architectures to evaluate their empirical effectiveness. As the foundation of the algorithm, the underlying toolkit integrates 31 advanced temporal architectures and 6 customized exogenous modules, resulting in 146 highly configurable variants. In addition, to provide experience references for the agents, we established a large-scale benchmark on 21 energy datasets and released new high-quality renewable energy datasets with meteorological factors.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Adapting Embedding Models for Agent Capability Retrieval

Open agent marketplaces list native agents, tool bundles, and reusable skill packages in the same search interface, yet practitioners still have little guidance on how to retrieve across this mixed catalog. We study whether off-the-shelf retrieval models, trained for general text retrieval, can be adapted to match user queries to executable agent capabilities, and whether the learned signal transfers beyond the benchmark used for tuning. We fine-tune three open retrieval backbones, BGE-base, KaLM-v1.5, and EasyRec, on AgentSelect, which represents marketplace-visible units as capability profiles derived from public metadata, and test transfer on two catalogs not seen during training: MuleRun native agents and a ClawHub benchmark of 50 skills with 1,000 queries. Adaptation helps on both catalogs. Code and data will be released upon publication.

cs.IR↗
arXiv2026

M3F-UAV: A Missing-Modality Multimodal Foundation Model for Low-Altitude Wireless Sensing

Low-altitude unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are emerging as key platforms for wireless intelligence tasks. However, practical low-altitude wireless systems usually operate in complex urban environments, where visual occlusion, sparse geometric observations, multipath propagation, and sensor failures may degrade the reliability of single-modality models. To address these challenges, this paper proposes M3F-UAV, a missing-modality multimodal foundation model for low-altitude wireless sensing. The proposed framework learns a unified multimodal representation from visual, geometric, and wireless observations. Specifically, modality-specific pretrained feature extractors are adopted for RGB/depth images, LiDAR point clouds, and CSI matrices, respectively. Through cross-modal fusion and missing-modality-aware pretraining with feature-level masked reconstruction and UAV localization objectives, M3F-UAV can extract fixed-size features from different modality combinations and adapt them to downstream low-altitude wireless tasks with lightweight task heads. Experiments on the LAMBDA dataset show that M3F-UAV outperforms single-modality baselines and maintains robust performance under missing-modality settings.

eess.SP↗
arXiv2026

TS-Memory: Plug-and-Play Memory for Time Series Foundation Models

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) achieve strong zero-shot forecasting through large-scale pre-training, but adapting them to downstream domains under distribution shift remains challenging. Existing solutions face a trade-off: Parametric Adaptation can cause catastrophic forgetting and requires costly multi-domain maintenance, while Non-Parametric Retrieval improves forecasts but incurs high inference latency due to datastore search. We propose Parametric Memory Distillation and implement it as TS-Memory, a lightweight memory adapter that augments frozen TSFMs. TS-Memory is trained in two stages. First, we construct an offline, retrieval-leakage-safe kNN teacher that synthesizes confidence-aware quantile targets from retrieved futures. Second, we distill this retrieval-induced distributional correction into a lightweight memory adapter via confidence-gated supervision. During inference, TS-Memory fuses memory and backbone predictions with constant-time overhead, enabling retrieval-free deployment. Experiments across diverse TSFMs and benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements in both point and probabilistic forecasting over representative adaptation methods, with efficiency comparable to the frozen backbone. Code: https://github.com/sisuolv/TS-Memory.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

RankLLM: Weighted Ranking of LLMs by Quantifying Question Difficulty

Benchmarks establish a standardized evaluation framework to systematically assess the performance of large language models (LLMs), facilitating objective comparisons and driving advancements in the field. However, existing benchmarks fail to differentiate question difficulty, limiting their ability to effectively distinguish models' capabilities. To address this limitation, we propose RankLLM, a novel framework designed to quantify both question difficulty and model competency. RankLLM introduces difficulty as the primary criterion for differentiation, enabling a more fine-grained evaluation of LLM capabilities. RankLLM's core mechanism facilitates bidirectional score propagation between models and questions. The core intuition of RankLLM is that a model earns a competency score when it correctly answers a question, while a question's difficulty score increases when it challenges a model. Using this framework, we evaluate 30 models on 35,550 questions across multiple domains. RankLLM achieves 90% agreement with human judgments and consistently outperforms strong baselines such as IRT. It also exhibits strong stability, fast convergence, and high computational efficiency, making it a practical solution for large-scale, difficulty-aware LLM evaluation.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Large Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data: A Survey and Outlook

Temporal data, including time series and spatio-temporal data, are pervasive in real-world applications. Generated in massive volumes by physical and virtual sensors, they record dynamic system behaviors and enable a wide range of downstream tasks. Effectively analyzing such data is crucial to unlocking their rich information content. Recent advances in large language models and other foundation models have accelerated their use in time series and spatio-temporal data mining. These approaches not only improve pattern recognition and reasoning across diverse domains but also support progress toward artificial general intelligence that can understand and process temporal data. In this survey, we present a comprehensive, up-to-date review of large models tailored or adapted for time series and spatio-temporal data along four dimensions: data types, model categories, model scopes, and application areas/tasks. We organize existing work into two main groups: large models for time series analysis (LM4TS) and for spatio-temporal data mining (LM4STD), and further distinguish general-purpose from domain-specific models. We also curate related resources, including datasets, model implementations, and tools, organized by major application areas. Overall, this survey consolidates recent advances and highlights foundations, applications, resources, and open research opportunities in large model-centric temporal data analysis.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

PAC-Bayesian Adversarially Robust Generalization for Message Passing Graph Neural Networks: A Sensitivity Analysis

Whilst the vulnerability of graph neural networks (GNNs) to adversarial attacks poses a critical threat to graph representation learning, the understanding of the robust generalization behavior remains a fundamental challenge in the adversarial setting. Recently, PAC-Bayesian margin-based generalization analysis substantially advances this line of research by providing a flexible and data-dependent analytical framework. However, existing robust analyses often rely on isotropic Gaussian posteriors and control weight perturbations in the full parameter space, which limits the ability to capture heterogeneous parameter sensitivity yet hinges on hidden-width-dependent complexity terms, resulting in not-tight-enough generalization bounds. In this paper, we extend a recently proposed sensitivity-aware PAC-Bayesian framework from deep neural networks to message passing GNNs (MPGNNs) and derive a tighter robust generalization bound in the adversarial setting. Specifically, we first quantify how sensitive the perturbations across different parameter blocks are to the network outputs by deriving the output Jacobians with respect to the weight parameters. Exploiting the fact that these Jacobian matrices have rank at most $K$ in $K$-class graph classification, we then construct Jacobian-aligned sensitivity matrices and use anisotropic Gaussian posteriors with optimized covariances to upper bound the KL divergence in a tight way. Notably, by refining the spectral-norm dependence on the learned weights and reducing the leading dimension factor from hidden-width-dependent terms to the number of classes $K$, our analysis yields much tighter robust generalization guarantees for MPGNNs, thereby guiding their designs to enhance adversarial robustness.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

It's TIME: Towards the Next Generation of Time Series Forecasting Benchmarks

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are revolutionizing the forecasting landscape from specific dataset modeling to generalizable task evaluation. However, we contend that existing benchmarks exhibit common limitations in four dimensions: constrained data composition dominated by reused legacy sources, compromised data integrity lacking rigorous quality assurance, misaligned task formulations detached from real-world contexts, and rigid analysis perspectives that obscure generalizable insights. To bridge these gaps, we introduce TIME, a next-generation task-centric benchmark comprising 50 fresh datasets and 98 forecasting tasks, tailored for strict zero-shot TSFM evaluation free from data leakage. Integrating large language models and human expertise, we establish a human-in-the-loop benchmark construction pipeline to ensure high data integrity and redefine task formulation by aligning forecasting configurations with real-world operational requirements and variate predictability. Furthermore, we propose a novel pattern-level evaluation perspective that moves beyond traditional dataset-level evaluations based on static meta labels. By leveraging structural time series features to characterize intrinsic temporal properties, this approach offers generalizable insights into model capabilities across diverse patterns. We evaluate 12 TSFMs and establish a multi-granular leaderboard to facilitate in-depth analysis and visualized inspection. The leaderboard is available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Real-TSF/TIME-leaderboard.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

PnP-Corrector: A Universal Correction Framework for Coupled Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Coupled spatiotemporal forecasting is important for predicting the future evolution of multiple interacting dynamical systems, such as in climate models. However, existing methods are severely constrained by the persistent bottleneck of compounding errors. In coupled systems, errors from each subsystem simulator propagate and amplify one another, a phenomenon we term Reciprocal Error Amplification, leading to a rapid collapse of long-range predictions. To address this challenge, we propose a universal framework called PnP-Corrector (Plug-and-Play Corrector). The core idea of our framework is to decouple the physical simulation from the error correction process: it freezes pre-trained physics simulation engines and exclusively trains a correction agent to proactively counteract the systematic biases emerging from the coupled system. Furthermore, we design an efficient predictive model architecture, DSLCast, to serve as the backbone of this framework. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method significantly enhances the long-term stability and accuracy of coupled forecasting systems. For instance, in the challenging task of a 300-day global ocean-atmosphere coupled forecast, our PnP-Corrector framework reduces the prediction error of the baseline model by 28% and surpasses state-of-the-art models on several key metrics.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

TimeSage-MT: A Multi-Turn Benchmark for Evaluating Agentic Time Series Reasoning

Time series data inform critical decisions across many real-world domains. While large language model (LLM) agents can analyze data through natural language and tools, it remains unclear whether they can conduct reliable time series analysis across multi-turn conversations. Existing benchmarks focus on single-step tasks such as forecasting and anomaly detection, overlooking practical workflows where user goals evolve, agents must build on prior analyses, and conclusions emerge from accumulated evidence. In this work, we introduce TimeSage-MT, a multi-turn benchmark for agentic time series reasoning with 240 tasks and 2,680 dialogue turns across 8 real-world domains, spanning basic exploration to decision-oriented analysis. TimeSage-MT is built through a reproducible pipeline that converts real-world time series data into multi-turn conversations with verifiable answers. It provides a unified evaluation protocol and public leaderboard for comparing time series agentic systems. To demonstrate the benchmark's utility, we evaluate frontier LLMs alongside TimeSage, a novel structured agent equipped with a comprehensive time series skill library. The results show sharp performance drops on decision-oriented tasks, driven by failures in memory, uncertainty handling, and domain-based decision making. TimeSage-MT exposes critical gaps in current agentic reasoning and provides a rigorous foundation for future development.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Parallel Complex Diffusion for Scalable Time Series Generation

Diffusion models learn data distributions indirectly through denoising, making the difficulty of generative modeling closely tied to the dependency structure of data. For time series, strong temporal dependence forces the noise / score estimator to recover highly entangled cross-time relationships, leading to the curse of entanglement. We mitigate this burden by changing the topology of the diffusion space: the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) decomposes temporal dependencies into spectral modes, diagonalizing second-order dependency structure and better aligning the data manifold with isotropic Gaussian noise and homogeneous diffusion dynamics. However, existing frequency-aware diffusion methods mainly use the DFT to design estimator blocks under temporal DDPM/SDE frameworks, while frequency-native diffusion paths face a mathematical barrier from complex-valued dynamics. We propose PaCoDi (Parallel Complex Diffusion), a frequency-native diffusion framework that constructs the diffusion path in the spectral domain while replacing the complex-valued estimator with parallel real-valued estimators for real and imaginary components. Theoretically, we prove the statistical orthogonality of spectral Gaussian noise, establish quadrature forward transitions and conditional reverse factorization, and extend discrete PaCoDi to continuous-time spectral SDEs through a Spectral Wiener Process. We further introduce a Mean Field Theory approximation with an Interactive Correction Branch to handle marginal coupling, and exploit Hermitian symmetry to reduce 50% attention FLOPs without information loss. Extensive experiments on unconditional and conditional time series generation demonstrate superior generative quality and computational efficiency against 5 SOTA baselines in 5 benchmarks, respectively. Code is available at https://github.com/RongyaoCai/PaCoDi.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

SkillBrew: Multi-Objective Curation of Skill Banks for LLM Agents

Retrieval-augmented LLM agents increasingly rely on curated skill banks: collections of reusable textual principles that guide decision making on complex tasks. Existing approaches typically expand these banks in an append-only fashion, continuously adding new skills without removing redundant, outdated, or harmful ones, resulting in inefficient and poorly curated repositories. In this paper, we formulate the skill bank curation as a constrained multi-objective problem: a desirable bank must be useful for the agent, diverse in its content, and provide good coverage of the query distribution. To this end, we introduce SkillBrew, a multi-objective curation framework that formalizes skill bank curation as Pareto-aware optimization under a utility constraint, and solves it via a bi-level propose-then-verify loop. We evaluate our approach on two public benchmarks. Our findings suggest that treating skill banks as objects of principled curation, rather than ever-growing append-only logs, is an important step toward building self-improving LLM agents.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

ChronosAudio: A Comprehensive Long-Audio Benchmark for Evaluating Audio-Large Language Models

Although Audio Large Language Models (ALLMs) have witnessed substantial advancements, their long audio understanding capabilities remain unexplored. A plethora of benchmarks have been proposed for general audio tasks, they predominantly focus on short-form clips, leaving without a consensus on evaluating ALLMs over extended durations. This paper proposes ChronosAudio, the first multi-task benchmark tailored for long-audio understanding in ALLMs. It encompasses six major task categories and comprises 36,000 test instances totaling over 200 hours audio, stratified into short, middle, and long-form categories to comprehensively evaluate length generalization. Extensive experiments on 16 state-of-the-art models using ChronosAudio yield three critical findings: 1.Precipitous Long-Context Collapse: ALLMs exhibit a severe inability to sustain performance, with the transition from short to long contexts triggering a staggering performance degradation of over 90% in specific tasks. 2.Structural Attention Dilution: Performance degradation stems from a fundamental failure in maintaining temporal locality; attention mechanisms suffer from significant diffusion in later sequences. 3.Restorative Ceiling of Mitigation: Current strategies only offer 50% recovery. These findings reveal significant challenges in long-audio, underscoring the urgent need for approaches to achieve robust, document-level audio reasoning.

cs.SD↗
arXiv2026

DropoutTS: Sample-Adaptive Dropout for Robust Time Series Forecasting

Deep time series models are vulnerable to noisy data ubiquitous in real-world applications. Existing robustness strategies either prune data or rely on costly prior quantification, failing to balance effectiveness and efficiency. In this paper, we introduce DropoutTS, a model-agnostic plugin that shifts the paradigm from "what" to learn to "how much" to learn. DropoutTS employs a Sample-Adaptive Dropout mechanism: leveraging spectral sparsity to efficiently quantify instance-level noise via reconstruction residuals, it dynamically calibrates model learning capacity by mapping noise to adaptive dropout rates - selectively suppressing spurious fluctuations while preserving fine-grained fidelity. Extensive experiments across diverse noise regimes and open benchmarks show DropoutTS consistently boosts superior backbones' performance, delivering advanced robustness with negligible parameter overhead and no architectural modifications. Our code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/DropoutTS.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

AutoResearch AI: Towards AI-Powered Research Automation for Scientific Discovery

Scientific research is being reshaped by AI systems that move beyond isolated assistance toward longer-horizon workflows spanning literature grounding, hypothesis generation, experimentation, validation, reporting, and revision. This shift marks a transition from task-level AI for science to workflow-level research automation. Yet current systems remain fragmented, differing in autonomy, domain scope, execution environment, validation mechanism, and human oversight, while still struggling with evidence preservation, reproducibility, weak-direction rejection, provenance tracking, cross-domain robustness, and accountable scientific closure. This survey examines these developments through AutoResearch, defined as the developmental spectrum of AI-powered scientific workflow automation. Within it, Vibe Research denotes the human-steered region of prompt-based assistance and human-verified execution, whereas emerging AI-led systems coordinate larger portions of the discovery loop without achieving robust autonomy. We analyze how research systems redistribute control, evidence, execution, validation, and accountability across workflows and organize the field around five workflow conditions: literature and research grounding; hypothesis formation and planning; experimentation and tool use; feedback, validation, and review; and reporting and knowledge communication. We further synthesize AI scientist systems, mixed-initiative co-research frameworks, benchmarks, domain deployments, and open-source infrastructures. Finally, we propose five evaluation dimensions--novelty, validity, impact, reliability, and provenance--and show that AutoResearch autonomy is domain-conditioned, being more credible in structured, executable, and rapidly verifiable settings but limited in embodied, delayed, heterogeneous, ethical, or institutionally accountable contexts.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Differential-Integral Neural Operator for Long-Term Turbulence Forecasting

Accurately forecasting the long-term evolution of turbulence represents a grand challenge in scientific computing and is crucial for applications ranging from climate modeling to aerospace engineering. Existing deep learning methods, particularly neural operators, often fail in long-term autoregressive predictions, suffering from catastrophic error accumulation and a loss of physical fidelity. This failure stems from their inability to simultaneously capture the distinct mathematical structures that govern turbulent dynamics: local, dissipative effects and global, non-local interactions. In this paper, we propose the {\textbf{\underline{D}}}ifferential-{\textbf{\underline{I}}}ntegral {\textbf{\underline{N}}}eural {\textbf{\underline{O}}}perator (\method{}), a novel framework designed from a first-principles approach of operator decomposition. \method{} explicitly models the turbulent evolution through parallel branches that learn distinct physical operators: a local differential operator, realized by a constrained convolutional network that provably converges to a derivative, and a global integral operator, captured by a Transformer architecture that learns a data-driven global kernel. This physics-based decomposition endows \method{} with exceptional stability and robustness. Through extensive experiments on the challenging 2D Kolmogorov flow benchmark, we demonstrate that \method{} significantly outperforms state-of-the-art models in long-term forecasting. It successfully suppresses error accumulation over hundreds of timesteps, maintains high fidelity in both the vorticity fields and energy spectra, and establishes a new benchmark for physically consistent, long-range turbulence forecast.

cs.LG↗