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Qingsong Wen

Publications and source records attributed to Qingsong Wen.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
arXiv2026

Olivia: Harmonizing Time Series Foundation Models with Power Spectral Density

Time series foundation models rely on large-scale pretraining over diverse datasets across domains, yet their heterogeneity in temporal patterns could hinder the effectiveness of training and learning transferable time series representations. Inspired a fundamental concept, normalized power spectral density (PSD) in signal processing, we assume harmonizing datasets via PSDs in the spectral domain could reduce mismatches and enhance pretraining. We then go beyond the direct intractable minimization optimization and innovatively reformulate it as a principled harmonization approach. Specifically, we propose Harmonizer, a module that reshapes spectral structures and implicitly harmonizing PSDs across datasets, which theoretically corresponds to a shared reparameterization of second-order temporal correlations. Our theoretical analysis further reveals token interactions with Harmonizer can be efficiently mediated by a compact set of resonators, motivating a HarmonicAttention design that performs self-attention in a low-dimensional interaction space. Then, we propose Olivia, a novel time series foundation model built upon these harmonization mechanisms. Extensive experiments on two large-scale benchmarks (TSLib and GIFT-Eval) and extra 6 datasets from GluonTS, demonstrate Olivia consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance under zero-shot, few-shot, and full-shot forecasting scenarios. Our code is available at https://github.com/TSTS13/Olivia.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Beyond Extrapolation: Knowledge Utilization Paradigm with Bidirectional Inspiration for Time Series Forecasting

Time-series forecasting is critical in various scenarios, such as energy, transportation, and public health. However, most existing forecasters rely primarily on one-way inference, \textit{i.e.}, mapping \textbf{history} to \textbf{target}, and overlook the structural information provided by a revised natural chain (``\textbf{history} (model input) -- \textbf{target} (ground-truth output) -- \textbf{post-target continuation}''). The post-target continuation records how trajectories evolve after the target, which can help stabilize forecasting, but it is not observable at inference time. In this work, we aim to obtain an approximate proxy of the post-target continuation for the current input, providing structural knowledge for bidirectional forecasting. This idea is instantiated as KUP-BI (Knowledge Utilization Paradigm with Bidirectional Inspiration), a new time-series modeling paradigm that distills continuation-style knowledge (as an approximate post-target continuation proxy) from a \emph{train-only} historical library and integrates it into standard forecasting backbones. The input stream and the continuation-proxy stream are fused via a lightweight feature-level gating module. This design does not introduce information beyond what is already contained in the training trajectories; instead, it provides a structured inductive bias that helps backbones exploit typical continuation patterns rather than relying solely on parametric extrapolation. Experimental results on six public datasets show that KUP-BI consistently improves the forecasting performance of state-of-the-art models, with small additional overhead.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

DynamicNER: A Dynamic, Multilingual, and Fine-Grained Dataset for LLM-based Named Entity Recognition

The advancements of Large Language Models (LLMs) have spurred a growing interest in their application to Named Entity Recognition (NER) methods. However, existing datasets are primarily designed for traditional machine learning methods and are inadequate for LLM-based methods, in terms of corpus selection and overall dataset design logic. Moreover, the prevalent fixed and relatively coarse-grained entity categorization in existing datasets fails to adequately assess the superior generalization and contextual understanding capabilities of LLM-based methods, thereby hindering a comprehensive demonstration of their broad application prospects. To address these limitations, we propose DynamicNER, the first NER dataset designed for LLM-based methods with dynamic categorization, introducing various entity types and entity type lists for the same entity in different context, leveraging the generalization of LLM-based NER better. The dataset is also multilingual and multi-granular, covering 8 languages and 155 entity types, with corpora spanning a diverse range of domains. Furthermore, we introduce CascadeNER, a novel NER method based on a two-stage strategy and lightweight LLMs, achieving higher accuracy on fine-grained tasks while requiring fewer computational resources. Experiments show that DynamicNER serves as a robust and effective benchmark for LLM-based NER methods. Furthermore, we also conduct analysis for traditional methods and LLM-based methods on our dataset. Our code and dataset are openly available at https://github.com/Astarojth/DynamicNER.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Causal Time Series Generation via Diffusion Models

Time series generation (TSG) synthesizes realistic sequences and has achieved remarkable success. Among TSG, conditional models generate sequences given observed covariates, however, such models learn observational correlations without considering unobserved confounding. In this work, we propose a causal perspective on conditional TSG and introduce causal time series generation as a new TSG task family, formalized within Pearl's causal ladder, extending beyond observational generation to include interventional and counterfactual settings. To instantiate these tasks, we develop CaTSG, a unified diffusion-based framework with backdoor-adjusted guidance that causally steers sampling toward desired interventions and individual counterfactuals while preserving observational fidelity. Specifically, our method derives causal score functions via backdoor adjustment and the abduction-action-prediction procedure, thus enabling principled support for all three levels of TSG. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that CaTSG achieves superior fidelity and also supporting interventional and counterfactual generation that existing baselines cannot handle. Overall, we propose the causal TSG family and instantiate it with CaTSG, providing an initial proof-of-concept and opening a promising direction toward more reliable simulation under interventions and counterfactual generation.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Backdoor Collapse: Eliminating Unknown Threats via Known Backdoor Aggregation in Language Models

Backdoor attacks are a significant threat to large language models (LLMs), often embedded via public checkpoints, yet existing defenses rely on impractical assumptions about trigger settings. To address this challenge, we propose \ourmethod, a defense framework that requires no prior knowledge of trigger settings. \ourmethod is based on the key observation that when deliberately injecting known backdoors into an already-compromised model, both existing unknown and newly injected backdoors aggregate in the representation space. \ourmethod leverages this through a two-stage process: \textbf{first}, aggregating backdoor representations by injecting known triggers, and \textbf{then}, performing recovery fine-tuning to restore benign outputs. Extensive experiments across multiple LLM architectures demonstrate that: (I) \ourmethod reduces the average Attack Success Rate to 4.41\% across multiple benchmarks, outperforming existing baselines by 28.1\%$\sim$69.3\%$\uparrow$. (II) Clean accuracy and utility are preserved within 0.5\% of the original model, ensuring negligible impact on legitimate tasks. (III) The defense generalizes across different types of backdoors, confirming its robustness in practical deployment scenarios.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

UniPath: Adaptive Coordination of Understanding and Generation for Unified Multimodal Reasoning

Unified multimodal models (UMMs) aim to integrate understanding and generation within a single architecture. However, it remains underexplored how to effectively coordinate these two capabilities for more effective and efficient reasoning. Existing coordination approaches either perform coupling during training, without explicit inference-time coordination, or impose a fixed coordination pattern for all inputs. In this work, we show that multimodal tasks exhibit substantial coordination-path diversity: different inputs favor different coordination paths. This suggests that exploiting such diversity is key to improving performance. We propose UniPath, a framework for adaptively modeling and exploiting coordination-path diversity. Instead of enforcing a single coordination pattern, we represent task solving as the selection and execution of a path, ranging from direct answering to textual inference, visual-thought construction, and hypothesis-based exploration. We construct role-aligned trajectories to train a path-conditioned executor and introduce a lightweight planner mechanism to enable input-dependent path selection. Experiments show that leveraging coordination-path diversity improves performance over fixed coordination strategies while providing interpretable intermediate behaviors. The code is available at:https://github.com/AIFrontierLab/TorchUMM/tree/main/src/umm/post_training/unipath.

cs.MM↗
arXiv2026

Remember the Decision, Not the Description: A Rate-Distortion Framework for Agent Memory

Long-horizon language agents must operate under limited runtime memory, yet existing memory mechanisms often organize experience around descriptive criteria such as relevance, salience, or summary quality. For an agent, however, memory is valuable not because it faithfully describes the past, but because it preserves the distinctions between histories that must remain separated under a fixed budget to support good decisions. We cast this as a decision-centric rate-distortion problem, measuring memory quality by the loss in achievable decision quality induced by compression. This yields an exact forgetting boundary for what can be safely forgotten, and a memory-distortion frontier characterizing the optimal tradeoff between memory budget and decision quality. Motivated by this decision-centric view of memory, we propose DeMem, an online memory learner that refines its partition only when data certify that a shared state would induce decision conflict, and prove near-minimax regret guarantees. On both controlled synthetic diagnostics and long-horizon conversational benchmarks, DeMem yields consistent gains under the same runtime budget, supporting the principle that memory should preserve the distinctions that matter for decisions, not descriptions.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

OrderFusion: Encoding Orderbook for End-to-End Probabilistic Intraday Electricity Price Forecasting

Probabilistic intraday electricity price forecasting is becoming increasingly important for short-term power-system operation. With increasing renewable generation, demand-side flexibility, and storage assets, market participants need to adjust their positions under uncertainty closer to delivery. Continuous intraday (CID) markets support this process by providing updated price signals, helping participants manage imbalance exposure and operational risk. Unlike auction markets, CID trading in many jurisdictions is characterized by the continuous posting of buy and sell orders. This dynamic orderbook microstructure of price formation presents special challenges for price forecasting. Conventional methods represent the orderbook via domain features aggregated from buy and sell trades, or by treating it as a multivariate time series, but such representations neglect the full buy-sell interaction structure of the orderbook. This research therefore develops a new order fusion methodology, which is an end-to-end and parameter-efficient probabilistic forecasting model that learns a interaction-aware representation of the buy-sell dynamics. Furthermore, as quantile crossing is often a problem in probabilistic forecasting, this approach hierarchically estimates the quantiles with non-crossing constraints. Extensive experiments on CID price indices across high- and low-liquidity European markets demonstrate consistent improvements over conventional baselines, and ablation studies highlight the contributions of the main components.The methodology is available at: https://runyao-yu.github.io/OrderFusion/.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2026

The Procrustean Bed of Time Series: The Optimization Bias in Point-wise Loss Functions

Intuitively, a more deterministic time series should be easier to forecast. However, point-wise loss functions (e.g., MSE and MAE), serving as differentiable surrogates for the ideal optimization target, score each timestamp independently and therefore disregard temporal dependence. This mismatch induces a systematic optimization bias that cannot be eliminated merely by improving model expressiveness or optimizer. To formalize this issue, we define the Expectation of Optimization Bias (EOB) as the Kullback--Leibler divergence between the true joint distribution and the factorized i.i.d. surrogate induced by the point-wise paradigm. Under covariance-stationary Gaussian assumptions, we derive closed-form expressions for the stochastic component of EOB, establishing it as an irreducible lower bound on the total bias in linear systems, and further extend it to nonlinear regimes through a Gaussian mixture model lower bound. Crucially, we prove this bias is governed intrinsically by two data properties, i.e., sequence length and Structural Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SSNR), regardless of specific model architecture, optimizer, or point-wise loss forms. This theory motivates a principled debiasing program based on sequence length reduction and structural orthogonalization, which we instantiate through DFT/DWT combined with a novel harmonized $\ell_p$ norm. Extensive experiments validate the predicted SSNR--horizon dynamics, resolve the classic trigonometric fitting failure as an objective-induced pathology, and demonstrate substantial plug-and-play gains. Notably, on iTransformer, our proposed objective reduces average MSE/MAE by 5.2%/5.0% in forecasting across 11 datasets and by 27.4%/19.4% in imputation across 9 datasets.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

PriceFM: Foundation Model for Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting

Electricity price forecasting in Europe presents unique challenges due to increasing renewable generation variability, market integration, and the continent's physically interconnected power system. While recent advances in foundation models have led to substantial improvements in general time series forecasting, most existing approaches do not incorporate prior graph knowledge from the transmission topology, which can limit their ability to exploit meaningful cross-region dependencies in interconnected power systems, motivating a domain-specific foundation model. In this paper, we address this gap by first introducing a comprehensive and up-to-date dataset across 24 European countries (38 regions), spanning from 2022-01-01 to 2026-01-01. Building on this groundwork, we propose PriceFM, a probabilistic foundation model pretrained on this large dataset. Specifically, PriceFM maps each region's price and exogenous features, including load, solar, and wind generation forecasts, into a comparable latent embedding via a shared Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) projection layer, then injects prior graph knowledge by constructing a sparse graph mask derived from transmission topology. Across a large-scale European benchmark, PriceFM achieves strong performance and demonstrates superior generalization compared with multiple competitive baselines. The results highlight the value of topology-guided forecasting with increasing renewable generation and strong cross-border interconnections. The methodology is available at: https://runyao-yu.github.io/PriceFM/.

cs.CE↗
arXiv2026

Perceive, Route and Modulate: Dynamic Pattern Recalibration for Time Series Forecasting

Local temporal patterns in real-world time series continuously shift, rendering globally shared transformations suboptimal. Current deep forecasting models, despite their scale and complexity, rely on fixed weight matrices applied uniformly to all temporal tokens. This creates a static pattern response: models settle into a compromised average, unable to adapt to changing local dynamics. We introduce Dynamic Pattern Recalibration (DPR), a backbone-agnostic mechanism that resolves this via token-level recalibration. Through a lightweight "Perceive-Route-Modulate" pipeline, DPR computes a soft-routing distribution over a learned basis of adaptive response patterns, generating a time-aware modulation vector that recalibrates hidden states via a residual Hadamard product. As a backbone-agnostic adapter, DPR enhances forecasting across diverse architectures with minimal overhead, confirming it addresses a general bottleneck. As a minimalist standalone model, DPRNet achieves competitive performance across 12 benchmarks, validating dynamic recalibration against macroscopic parameter scaling.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

From Memorization to Creation: Evaluating the Cognitive Depth of LLM-Generated Educational Questions

While LLMs show promise in automating educational content creation, their ability to generate questions that stimulate higher-order thinking remains understudied. This work evaluates six widely-used LLMs through a Bloom's Taxonomy lens, focusing on their capacity to transcend rote memorization and achieve cognitive leaps. Using a hybrid human--AI evaluation protocol, we generate and analyze 20{,}700 questions across computer science, K--12 math, and social-science domains. Key contributions include: (1) a fine-grained prompting strategy that reduces question repetitiveness by 24.45\% for Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct, and increases the proportion of higher-order cognitive level outputs by 11.53\% for InternLM3-8B-Instruct; (2) quantitative metrics for cognitive shift intensity (CogShift) and category drift, revealing InternLM3's superior performance in multi-level transitions; (3) an interpretability analysis revealing metric-level correlations that enhance the transparency of Chain-of-Thought prompting. Our findings highlight the importance of cognitive-aware prompt design and provide benchmarks for deploying LLMs in personalized learning systems.

cs.HC↗
arXiv2026

MIRL: Mutual Information-Guided Reinforcement Learning for Vision-Language Models

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) frequently suffer from visual perception errors and hallucinations that compromise answer accuracy in complex reasoning tasks. Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) offers a promising solution by optimizing policies using answer correctness signals. Despite their effectiveness, prevailing RLVR methods face two critical limitations. First, much of the sampling budget is wasted on trajectories doomed to fail due to early visual description errors. Second, sparse rewards cannot distinguish whether failures stem from visual perception or reasoning stages. We introduce MIRL, a decoupled framework that addresses both limitations by leveraging mutual information (MI) between generated descriptions and visual inputs as a cheap pre-screening signal. This enables intelligent budget allocation toward high-potential trajectories via forking, while decoupled training provides independent MI-based rewards for visual perception optimization, resolving reward blindness. Experiments on six vision-language reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that MIRL achieves 70.22% average accuracy and successfully surpasses the performance of sampling 16 complete trajectories using only 10 pre-samples with top-6 selection (25% fewer complete trajectories). Our code is available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/mirl-main/.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2026

Designing and Evaluating Next-Generation Learning Interfaces: Linking AI, HCI, and the Learning Sciences

This workshop addresses this gap by bringing together researchers and practitioners from AI, HCI, and the learning sciences to explore how interactive systems can better support learning. We focus on the design and evaluation of human-AI collaborative learning interfaces that are technically robust, human-centered, and pedagogically grounded. By fostering interdisciplinary dialogue, the workshop aims to identify shared challenges, design principles, and research directions for next-generation learning technologies.

cs.HC↗
arXiv2026

End-to-End Learning for Partially-Observed Time Series with PyPOTS

Partially-observed time series (POTS) is ubiquitous in real-world applications, yet most existing toolchains separate missing-value handling from downstream learning, which limits reproducibility and overall performance. This tutorial introduces PyPOTS, an open-source Python ecosystem for end-to-end data mining and machine learning on POTS. We present practical workflows spanning missingness simulation, data preprocessing, model training, and evaluation across core tasks, including imputation, forecasting, classification, clustering, and anomaly detection. The tutorial consists of two parts: Part I emphasizes hands-on application for practitioners through unified APIs and benchmark-oriented experiments. Part II targets developers and researchers, focusing on extending PyPOTS with custom models, domain-specific constraints, and contribution-ready engineering practices. Participants will gain both conceptual understanding and implementation experience for building robust, transparent, and reusable POTS pipelines in research and production settings. PyPOTS is publicly available at https://github.com/WenjieDu/PyPOTS

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

ErrorRadar: Benchmarking Complex Mathematical Reasoning of Multimodal Large Language Models Via Error Detection

As the field of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) continues to evolve, their potential to revolutionize artificial intelligence is particularly promising, especially in addressing mathematical reasoning tasks. Current mathematical benchmarks predominantly focus on evaluating MLLMs' problem-solving ability, yet there is a crucial gap in addressing more complex scenarios such as error detection, for enhancing reasoning capability in complicated settings. To fill this gap, we formally formulate the new task: multimodal error detection, and introduce ErrorRadar, the first benchmark designed to assess MLLMs' capabilities in such a task. ErrorRadar evaluates two sub-tasks: error step identification and error categorization, providing a comprehensive framework for evaluating MLLMs' complex mathematical reasoning ability. It consists of 2,500 high-quality multimodal K-12 mathematical problems, collected from real-world student interactions in an educational organization, with rigorous annotation and rich metadata such as problem type and error category. Through extensive experiments, we evaluated both open-source and closed-source representative MLLMs, benchmarking their performance against educational expert evaluators. Results indicate significant challenges still remain, as GPT-4o with best performance is still around 10% behind human evaluation.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Position: Multimodal Large Language Models Can Significantly Advance Scientific Reasoning

Scientific reasoning, the process through which humans apply logic, evidence, and critical thinking to explore and interpret scientific phenomena, is essential in advancing knowledge reasoning across diverse fields. However, despite significant progress, current scientific reasoning models still struggle with generalization across domains and often fall short of multimodal perception. Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), which integrate text, images, and other modalities, present an exciting opportunity to overcome these limitations and enhance scientific reasoning. Therefore, this position paper argues that MLLMs can significantly advance scientific reasoning across disciplines such as mathematics, physics, chemistry, and biology. First, we propose a four-stage research roadmap of scientific reasoning capabilities, and highlight the current state of MLLM applications in scientific reasoning, noting their ability to integrate and reason over diverse data types. Second, we summarize the key challenges that remain obstacles to achieving MLLM's full potential. To address these challenges, we propose actionable insights and suggestions for the future. Overall, our work offers a novel perspective on MLLM integration with scientific reasoning, providing the LLM community with a valuable vision for achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Time-RA: Towards Time Series Reasoning for Anomaly Diagnosis with LLM Feedback

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) has traditionally focused on binary classification and often lacks the fine-grained categorization and explanatory reasoning required for transparent decision-making. To address these limitations, we propose Time-series Reasoning for Anomaly (Time-RA), a novel task that reformulates TSAD from a discriminative into a generative, reasoning-intensive paradigm. To facilitate this, we introduce RATs40K, the first real-world large-scale multimodal benchmark with ~40,000 samples across 10 domains, integrating raw time series, textual context, and visual plots with structured reasoning annotations. Extensive benchmarking shows that while supervised fine-tuning and visual representations boost diagnostic accuracy and reasoning consistency, performance varies across complex scenarios. Notably, fine-tuned models demonstrate strong "plug-and-play" transferability, outperforming traditional baselines on unseen real-world datasets. Our work establishes a foundation for interpretable, multimodal time series analysis. All code (https://github.com/yyysjz1997/Time-RA) and the RATs40K dataset (https://huggingface.co/datasets/Time-RA/RATs40K) are fully open-sourced to facilitate future research.

cs.LG↗