arXiv subjects

Rajesh Ranganath

Publications and source records attributed to Rajesh Ranganath.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

A dynamic risk score for early prediction of cardiogenic shock using machine learning

Myocardial infarction and heart failure are major cardiovascular diseases that affect millions of people in the US. The morbidity and mortality are highest among patients who develop cardiogenic shock. Early recognition of cardiogenic shock is critical. Prompt implementation of treatment measures can prevent the deleterious spiral of ischemia, low blood pressure, and reduced cardiac output due to cardiogenic shock. However, early identification of cardiogenic shock has been challenging due to human providers' inability to process the enormous amount of data in the cardiac intensive care unit (ICU) and lack of an effective risk stratification tool. We developed a deep learning-based risk stratification tool, called CShock, for patients admitted into the cardiac ICU with acute decompensated heart failure and/or myocardial infarction to predict onset of cardiogenic shock. To develop and validate CShock, we annotated cardiac ICU datasets with physician adjudicated outcomes. CShock achieved an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.820, which substantially outperformed CardShock (AUROC 0.519), a well-established risk score for cardiogenic shock prognosis. CShock was externally validated in an independent patient cohort and achieved an AUROC of 0.800, demonstrating its generalizability in other cardiac ICUs.

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arXiv2023

Where to Diffuse, How to Diffuse, and How to Get Back: Automated Learning for Multivariate Diffusions

Diffusion-based generative models (DBGMs) perturb data to a target noise distribution and reverse this process to generate samples. The choice of noising process, or inference diffusion process, affects both likelihoods and sample quality. For example, extending the inference process with auxiliary variables leads to improved sample quality. While there are many such multivariate diffusions to explore, each new one requires significant model-specific analysis, hindering rapid prototyping and evaluation. In this work, we study Multivariate Diffusion Models (MDMs). For any number of auxiliary variables, we provide a recipe for maximizing a lower-bound on the MDMs likelihood without requiring any model-specific analysis. We then demonstrate how to parameterize the diffusion for a specified target noise distribution; these two points together enable optimizing the inference diffusion process. Optimizing the diffusion expands easy experimentation from just a few well-known processes to an automatic search over all linear diffusions. To demonstrate these ideas, we introduce two new specific diffusions as well as learn a diffusion process on the MNIST, CIFAR10, and ImageNet32 datasets. We show learned MDMs match or surpass bits-per-dims (BPDs) relative to fixed choices of diffusions for a given dataset and model architecture.

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arXiv2023

Don't be fooled: label leakage in explanation methods and the importance of their quantitative evaluation

Feature attribution methods identify which features of an input most influence a model's output. Most widely-used feature attribution methods (such as SHAP, LIME, and Grad-CAM) are "class-dependent" methods in that they generate a feature attribution vector as a function of class. In this work, we demonstrate that class-dependent methods can "leak" information about the selected class, making that class appear more likely than it is. Thus, an end user runs the risk of drawing false conclusions when interpreting an explanation generated by a class-dependent method. In contrast, we introduce "distribution-aware" methods, which favor explanations that keep the label's distribution close to its distribution given all features of the input. We introduce SHAP-KL and FastSHAP-KL, two baseline distribution-aware methods that compute Shapley values. Finally, we perform a comprehensive evaluation of seven class-dependent and three distribution-aware methods on three clinical datasets of different high-dimensional data types: images, biosignals, and text.

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arXiv2023

Out-of-distribution Generalization in the Presence of Nuisance-Induced Spurious Correlations

In many prediction problems, spurious correlations are induced by a changing relationship between the label and a nuisance variable that is also correlated with the covariates. For example, in classifying animals in natural images, the background, which is a nuisance, can predict the type of animal. This nuisance-label relationship does not always hold, and the performance of a model trained under one such relationship may be poor on data with a different nuisance-label relationship. To build predictive models that perform well regardless of the nuisance-label relationship, we develop Nuisance-Randomized Distillation (NURD). We introduce the nuisance-randomized distribution, a distribution where the nuisance and the label are independent. Under this distribution, we define the set of representations such that conditioning on any member, the nuisance and the label remain independent. We prove that the representations in this set always perform better than chance, while representations outside of this set may not. NURD finds a representation from this set that is most informative of the label under the nuisance-randomized distribution, and we prove that this representation achieves the highest performance regardless of the nuisance-label relationship. We evaluate NURD on several tasks including chest X-ray classification where, using non-lung patches as the nuisance, NURD produces models that predict pneumonia under strong spurious correlations.

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arXiv2023

Robustness to Spurious Correlations Improves Semantic Out-of-Distribution Detection

Methods which utilize the outputs or feature representations of predictive models have emerged as promising approaches for out-of-distribution (OOD) detection of image inputs. However, these methods struggle to detect OOD inputs that share nuisance values (e.g. background) with in-distribution inputs. The detection of shared-nuisance out-of-distribution (SN-OOD) inputs is particularly relevant in real-world applications, as anomalies and in-distribution inputs tend to be captured in the same settings during deployment. In this work, we provide a possible explanation for SN-OOD detection failures and propose nuisance-aware OOD detection to address them. Nuisance-aware OOD detection substitutes a classifier trained via empirical risk minimization and cross-entropy loss with one that 1. is trained under a distribution where the nuisance-label relationship is broken and 2. yields representations that are independent of the nuisance under this distribution, both marginally and conditioned on the label. We can train a classifier to achieve these objectives using Nuisance-Randomized Distillation (NuRD), an algorithm developed for OOD generalization under spurious correlations. Output- and feature-based nuisance-aware OOD detection perform substantially better than their original counterparts, succeeding even when detection based on domain generalization algorithms fails to improve performance.

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arXiv2023

On the Feasibility of Machine Learning Augmented Magnetic Resonance for Point-of-Care Identification of Disease

Early detection of many life-threatening diseases (e.g., prostate and breast cancer) within at-risk population can improve clinical outcomes and reduce cost of care. While numerous disease-specific "screening" tests that are closer to Point-of-Care (POC) are in use for this task, their low specificity results in unnecessary biopsies, leading to avoidable patient trauma and wasteful healthcare spending. On the other hand, despite the high accuracy of Magnetic Resonance (MR) imaging in disease diagnosis, it is not used as a POC disease identification tool because of poor accessibility. The root cause of poor accessibility of MR stems from the requirement to reconstruct high-fidelity images, as it necessitates a lengthy and complex process of acquiring large quantities of high-quality k-space measurements. In this study we explore the feasibility of an ML-augmented MR pipeline that directly infers the disease sidestepping the image reconstruction process. We hypothesise that the disease classification task can be solved using a very small tailored subset of k-space data, compared to image reconstruction. Towards that end, we propose a method that performs two tasks: 1) identifies a subset of the k-space that maximizes disease identification accuracy, and 2) infers the disease directly using the identified k-space subset, bypassing the image reconstruction step. We validate our hypothesis by measuring the performance of the proposed system across multiple diseases and anatomies. We show that comparable performance to image-based classifiers, trained on images reconstructed with full k-space data, can be achieved using small quantities of data: 8% of the data for detecting multiple abnormalities in prostate and brain scans, and 5% of the data for knee abnormalities. To better understand the proposed approach and instigate future research, we provide an extensive analysis and release code.

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arXiv2022

Survival Mixture Density Networks

Survival analysis, the art of time-to-event modeling, plays an important role in clinical treatment decisions. Recently, continuous time models built from neural ODEs have been proposed for survival analysis. However, the training of neural ODEs is slow due to the high computational complexity of neural ODE solvers. Here, we propose an efficient alternative for flexible continuous time models, called Survival Mixture Density Networks (Survival MDNs). Survival MDN applies an invertible positive function to the output of Mixture Density Networks (MDNs). While MDNs produce flexible real-valued distributions, the invertible positive function maps the model into the time-domain while preserving a tractable density. Using four datasets, we show that Survival MDN performs better than, or similarly to continuous and discrete time baselines on concordance, integrated Brier score and integrated binomial log-likelihood. Meanwhile, Survival MDNs are also faster than ODE-based models and circumvent binning issues in discrete models.

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arXiv2022

Set Norm and Equivariant Skip Connections: Putting the Deep in Deep Sets

Permutation invariant neural networks are a promising tool for making predictions from sets. However, we show that existing permutation invariant architectures, Deep Sets and Set Transformer, can suffer from vanishing or exploding gradients when they are deep. Additionally, layer norm, the normalization of choice in Set Transformer, can hurt performance by removing information useful for prediction. To address these issues, we introduce the clean path principle for equivariant residual connections and develop set norm, a normalization tailored for sets. With these, we build Deep Sets++ and Set Transformer++, models that reach high depths with comparable or better performance than their original counterparts on a diverse suite of tasks. We additionally introduce Flow-RBC, a new single-cell dataset and real-world application of permutation invariant prediction. We open-source our data and code here: https://github.com/rajesh-lab/deep_permutation_invariant.

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arXiv2022

Learning Invariant Representations with Missing Data

Spurious correlations allow flexible models to predict well during training but poorly on related test distributions. Recent work has shown that models that satisfy particular independencies involving correlation-inducing \textit{nuisance} variables have guarantees on their test performance. Enforcing such independencies requires nuisances to be observed during training. However, nuisances, such as demographics or image background labels, are often missing. Enforcing independence on just the observed data does not imply independence on the entire population. Here we derive \acrshort{mmd} estimators used for invariance objectives under missing nuisances. On simulations and clinical data, optimizing through these estimates achieves test performance similar to using estimators that make use of the full data.

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arXiv2022

FastSHAP: Real-Time Shapley Value Estimation

Shapley values are widely used to explain black-box models, but they are costly to calculate because they require many model evaluations. We introduce FastSHAP, a method for estimating Shapley values in a single forward pass using a learned explainer model. FastSHAP amortizes the cost of explaining many inputs via a learning approach inspired by the Shapley value's weighted least squares characterization, and it can be trained using standard stochastic gradient optimization. We compare FastSHAP to existing estimation approaches, revealing that it generates high-quality explanations with orders of magnitude speedup.

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arXiv2022

Inverse-Weighted Survival Games

Deep models trained through maximum likelihood have achieved state-of-the-art results for survival analysis. Despite this training scheme, practitioners evaluate models under other criteria, such as binary classification losses at a chosen set of time horizons, e.g. Brier score (BS) and Bernoulli log likelihood (BLL). Models trained with maximum likelihood may have poor BS or BLL since maximum likelihood does not directly optimize these criteria. Directly optimizing criteria like BS requires inverse-weighting by the censoring distribution. However, estimating the censoring model under these metrics requires inverse-weighting by the failure distribution. The objective for each model requires the other, but neither are known. To resolve this dilemma, we introduce Inverse-Weighted Survival Games. In these games, objectives for each model are built from re-weighted estimates featuring the other model, where the latter is held fixed during training. When the loss is proper, we show that the games always have the true failure and censoring distributions as a stationary point. This means models in the game do not leave the correct distributions once reached. We construct one case where this stationary point is unique. We show that these games optimize BS on simulations and then apply these principles on real world cancer and critically-ill patient data.

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arXiv2021

Offline RL Without Off-Policy Evaluation

Most prior approaches to offline reinforcement learning (RL) have taken an iterative actor-critic approach involving off-policy evaluation. In this paper we show that simply doing one step of constrained/regularized policy improvement using an on-policy Q estimate of the behavior policy performs surprisingly well. This one-step algorithm beats the previously reported results of iterative algorithms on a large portion of the D4RL benchmark. The one-step baseline achieves this strong performance while being notably simpler and more robust to hyperparameters than previously proposed iterative algorithms. We argue that the relatively poor performance of iterative approaches is a result of the high variance inherent in doing off-policy evaluation and magnified by the repeated optimization of policies against those estimates. In addition, we hypothesize that the strong performance of the one-step algorithm is due to a combination of favorable structure in the environment and behavior policy.

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arXiv2021

Quantile Filtered Imitation Learning

We introduce quantile filtered imitation learning (QFIL), a novel policy improvement operator designed for offline reinforcement learning. QFIL performs policy improvement by running imitation learning on a filtered version of the offline dataset. The filtering process removes $ s,a $ pairs whose estimated Q values fall below a given quantile of the pushforward distribution over values induced by sampling actions from the behavior policy. The definitions of both the pushforward Q distribution and resulting value function quantile are key contributions of our method. We prove that QFIL gives us a safe policy improvement step with function approximation and that the choice of quantile provides a natural hyperparameter to trade off bias and variance of the improvement step. Empirically, we perform a synthetic experiment illustrating how QFIL effectively makes a bias-variance tradeoff and we see that QFIL performs well on the D4RL benchmark.

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arXiv2021

Understanding Failures in Out-of-Distribution Detection with Deep Generative Models

Deep generative models (DGMs) seem a natural fit for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs, but such models have been shown to assign higher probabilities or densities to OOD images than images from the training distribution. In this work, we explain why this behavior should be attributed to model misestimation. We first prove that no method can guarantee performance beyond random chance without assumptions on which out-distributions are relevant. We then interrogate the typical set hypothesis, the claim that relevant out-distributions can lie in high likelihood regions of the data distribution, and that OOD detection should be defined based on the data distribution's typical set. We highlight the consequences implied by assuming support overlap between in- and out-distributions, as well as the arbitrariness of the typical set for OOD detection. Our results suggest that estimation error is a more plausible explanation than the misalignment between likelihood-based OOD detection and out-distributions of interest, and we illustrate how even minimal estimation error can lead to OOD detection failures, yielding implications for future work in deep generative modeling and OOD detection.

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arXiv2021

Offline Contextual Bandits with Overparameterized Models

Recent results in supervised learning suggest that while overparameterized models have the capacity to overfit, they in fact generalize quite well. We ask whether the same phenomenon occurs for offline contextual bandits. Our results are mixed. Value-based algorithms benefit from the same generalization behavior as overparameterized supervised learning, but policy-based algorithms do not. We show that this discrepancy is due to the \emph{action-stability} of their objectives. An objective is action-stable if there exists a prediction (action-value vector or action distribution) which is optimal no matter which action is observed. While value-based objectives are action-stable, policy-based objectives are unstable. We formally prove upper bounds on the regret of overparameterized value-based learning and lower bounds on the regret for policy-based algorithms. In our experiments with large neural networks, this gap between action-stable value-based objectives and unstable policy-based objectives leads to significant performance differences.

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arXiv2021

Have We Learned to Explain?: How Interpretability Methods Can Learn to Encode Predictions in their Interpretations

While the need for interpretable machine learning has been established, many common approaches are slow, lack fidelity, or hard to evaluate. Amortized explanation methods reduce the cost of providing interpretations by learning a global selector model that returns feature importances for a single instance of data. The selector model is trained to optimize the fidelity of the interpretations, as evaluated by a predictor model for the target. Popular methods learn the selector and predictor model in concert, which we show allows predictions to be encoded within interpretations. We introduce EVAL-X as a method to quantitatively evaluate interpretations and REAL-X as an amortized explanation method, which learn a predictor model that approximates the true data generating distribution given any subset of the input. We show EVAL-X can detect when predictions are encoded in interpretations and show the advantages of REAL-X through quantitative and radiologist evaluation.

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arXiv2021

Causal Estimation with Functional Confounders

Causal inference relies on two fundamental assumptions: ignorability and positivity. We study causal inference when the true confounder value can be expressed as a function of the observed data; we call this setting estimation with functional confounders (EFC). In this setting, ignorability is satisfied, however positivity is violated, and causal inference is impossible in general. We consider two scenarios where causal effects are estimable. First, we discuss interventions on a part of the treatment called functional interventions and a sufficient condition for effect estimation of these interventions called functional positivity. Second, we develop conditions for nonparametric effect estimation based on the gradient fields of the functional confounder and the true outcome function. To estimate effects under these conditions, we develop Level-set Orthogonal Descent Estimation (LODE). Further, we prove error bounds on LODE's effect estimates, evaluate our methods on simulated and real data, and empirically demonstrate the value of EFC.

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arXiv2021

General Control Functions for Causal Effect Estimation from Instrumental Variables

Causal effect estimation relies on separating the variation in the outcome into parts due to the treatment and due to the confounders. To achieve this separation, practitioners often use external sources of randomness that only influence the treatment called instrumental variables (IVs). We study variables constructed from treatment and IV that help estimate effects, called control functions. We characterize general control functions for effect estimation in a meta-identification result. Then, we show that structural assumptions on the treatment process allow the construction of general control functions, thereby guaranteeing identification. To construct general control functions and estimate effects, we develop the general control function method (GCFN). GCFN's first stage called variational decoupling (VDE) constructs general control functions by recovering the residual variation in the treatment given the IV. Using VDE's control function, GCFN's second stage estimates effects via regression. Further, we develop semi-supervised GCFN to construct general control functions using subsets of data that have both IV and confounders observed as supervision; this needs no structural treatment process assumptions. We evaluate GCFN on low and high dimensional simulated data and on recovering the causal effect of slave export on modern community trust.

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