arXiv subjects

Ramesh Johari

Publications and source records attributed to Ramesh Johari.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Experimentation for Different Scheduling Policies on Queues: Mixed Differences-in-Q Estimators Based on Little's Law

In data centers, tasks are dispatched to various servers to evenly distribute the workload. When a data center considers implementing a new scheduling algorithm, it typically conducts an A/B test prior to deployment to assess the real-world impact of this new method. However, a straightforward A/B test might be interfered with so-called ``Markovian'' interference. We utilized the Differences-in-Q estimator, as developed by Farias et al. (2022), and introduced mixed Differences-in-Q estimators grounded in Little's Law. We show that our A/B testing methods significantly reduce bias and variance when testing various scheduling policies. Extensive simulations were conducted under scenarios like non-stationary arrival rates, heterogeneous service rates, and communication delays. These simulations highlight the robustness and efficacy of our A/B testing approach.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Sequentially-Rerandomized Switchback Experiments

Large-scale online platforms and marketplace systems often evaluate new policies through experiments that randomize treatment across operational units (e.g., geographies, regions, or clusters) over many time periods. In these settings, standard A/B testing can be inefficient or unreliable due to a limited number of units, substantial cross-unit heterogeneity, non-stationarity, and potential carryover across periods. We propose Sequentially-Rerandomized Switchback Experiments (SRSB), a new experimental design that helps mitigate these challenges. SRSB re-randomizes treatment at each time period such as to enforce balance on pre-specified prognostic variables constructed from past observations. In the absence of carryover, SRSB improves precision by leveraging temporal dependence through balancing lagged outcomes and covariates; we develop finite-sample randomization inference under a sharp null as well as asymptotic inference as the number of periods grows. We then extend SRSB to settings with first-order carryover and introduce a blocked SRSB variant that rerandomizes within strata defined by the previous treatment to form stable and comparable "stay" groups. Extensive simulations demonstrate the practical gains and robustness of SRSB relative to standard switchback designs.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Price Experimentation and Interference

In this paper, we examine the biases that arise when firms run A/B tests on continuous parameters to estimate global treatment effects on performance metrics of interest; we particularly focus on price experiments to measure the price impact on quantity demanded, and on profit. In canonical A/B experimental estimators, biases emerge due to interference between market participants. We employ structural modeling and differential calculus to derive intuitive characterizations of these biases. We then specialize our general model to the standard revenue-management pricing problem. This setting highlights a fundamental risk innate to A/B pricing experiments: that the canonical estimator for the expected change in profits, counterintuitively, can have the wrong sign in expectation. In other words, following the guidance of canonical estimators may lead firms to move prices (or fees) in the wrong direction, inadvertently decreasing profits. We introduce a novel debiasing technique for these canonical experiments, requiring only that firms equally split units between treatment and control. We apply these results to a two-sided market model, and demonstrate how the "change of sign" regime depends on market factors such as the supply/demand imbalance, and the price markup. We conclude by calibrating our revenue-management pricing model to published empirical estimates from Airbnb marketplaces, demonstrating that estimators with the wrong sign are not a knife-edge issue, and that they may be prevalent enough to be of concern to practitioners.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

When Does Interference Matter? Decision-Making in Platform Experiments

This paper investigates decision-making in A/B experiments for online platforms and marketplaces. In such settings, due to constraints on inventory, A/B experiments typically lead to biased estimators because of *interference* between treatment and control groups; this phenomenon has been well studied in recent literature. By contrast, there has been relatively little discussion of the impact of interference on decision-making. In this paper, we analyze a benchmark Markovian model of an inventory-constrained platform, where arriving customers book listings that are limited in supply. We focus on the commonly used frequentist hypothesis testing approach for making launch decisions based on data from customer-randomized experiments, and we study the impact of interference on (1) false positive probability and (2) statistical power. We obtain three main findings. First, we show that for *sign-consistent* treatments -- i.e., those where the treatment changes booking probabilities in the same direction relative to control for all states of inventory availability -- the false positive probability of a test statistic using the standard difference-in-means estimator with a corresponding naïve variance estimator is correctly controlled. Second, we demonstrate that for sign-consistent treatments in realistic settings, the statistical power of this naïve approach is higher than that of any similar pipeline using a debiased estimator. Taken together, these two findings suggest that platforms may be better off *not* debiasing when treatments are sign-consistent. Third, using numerics, we investigate false positive probability and statistical power when treatments are sign-inconsistent, and we show that in principle, the performance of the naïve approach can be arbitrarily worse in such cases.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Optimal Empirical Risk Minimization under Temporal Distribution Shifts

Temporal distribution shifts pose a key challenge for machine learning models trained and deployed in dynamically evolving environments. This paper introduces RIDER (RIsk minimization under Dynamically Evolving Regimes) which derives optimally-weighted empirical risk minimization procedures under temporal distribution shifts. Our approach is theoretically grounded in the random distribution shift model, where random shifts arise as a superposition of numerous unpredictable changes in the data-generating process. We show that common weighting schemes, such as pooling all data, exponentially weighting data, and using only the most recent data, emerge naturally as special cases in our framework. We demonstrate that RIDER consistently improves out-of-sample predictive performance when applied as a fine-tuning step on the Yearbook dataset, across a range of benchmark methods in Wild-Time. Moreover, we show that RIDER outperforms standard weighting strategies in two other real-world tasks: predicting stock market volatility and forecasting ride durations in NYC taxi data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

The Effect of State Representation on LLM Agent Behavior in Dynamic Routing Games

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise as decision-makers in dynamic settings, but their stateless nature necessitates creating a natural language representation of history. We present a unifying framework for systematically constructing natural language "state" representations for prompting LLM agents in repeated multi-agent games. Previous work on games with LLM agents has taken an ad hoc approach to encoding game history, which not only obscures the impact of state representation on agents' behavior, but also limits comparability between studies. Our framework addresses these gaps by characterizing methods of state representation along three axes: action informativeness (i.e., the extent to which the state representation captures actions played); reward informativeness (i.e., the extent to which the state representation describes rewards obtained); and prompting style (or natural language compression, i.e., the extent to which the full text history is summarized). We apply this framework to a dynamic selfish routing game, chosen because it admits a simple equilibrium both in theory and in human subject experiments \cite{rapoport_choice_2009}. Despite the game's relative simplicity, we find that there are key dependencies of LLM agent behavior on the natural language state representation. In particular, we observe that representations which provide agents with (1) summarized, rather than complete, natural language representations of past history; (2) information about regrets, rather than raw payoffs; and (3) limited information about others' actions lead to behavior that more closely matches game theoretic equilibrium predictions, and with more stable game play by the agents. By contrast, other representations can exhibit either large deviations from equilibrium, higher variation in dynamic game play over time, or both.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Estimation of Treatment Effects Under Nonstationarity via the Truncated Policy Gradient Estimator

Randomized experiments (or A/B tests) are widely used to evaluate interventions in dynamic systems such as recommendation platforms, marketplaces, and digital health. In these settings, interventions affect both current and future system states, so estimating the global average treatment effect (GATE) requires accounting for temporal dynamics, which is especially challenging in the presence of nonstationarity; existing approaches suffer from high bias, high variance, or both. In this paper, we address this challenge via the novel Truncated Policy Gradient (TPG) estimator, which replaces instantaneous outcomes with short-horizon outcome trajectories. The estimator admits a policy gradient interpretation: it is a truncation of the first-order approximation to the GATE, yielding provable reductions in bias and variance in nonstationary Markovian settings. We further establish a central limit theorem for the TPG estimator and develop a consistent variance estimator that remains valid under nonstationarity with single-trajectory data. We validate our theory with two real-world case studies. The results show that relative to existing approaches, a well-calibrated TPG estimator can achieve a favorable balance between bias and variance in nonstationary settings, highlighting the value of the policy-gradient perspective for designing effective estimators under complex dynamics.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Balancing Producer Fairness and Efficiency via Prior-Weighted Rating System Design

Online marketplaces use rating systems to promote the discovery of high-quality products. However, these systems also lead to high variance in producers' economic outcomes: a new producer who sells high-quality items, may unluckily receive a low rating early, severely impacting their future popularity. We investigate the design of rating systems that balance the goals of identifying high-quality products (``efficiency'') and minimizing the variance in outcomes of producers of similar quality (individual ``producer fairness''). We show that there is a trade-off between these two goals: rating systems that promote efficiency are necessarily less individually fair to producers. We introduce prior-weighted rating systems as an approach to managing this trade-off. Informally, the system we propose sets a system-wide prior for the quality of an incoming product; subsequently, the system updates that prior to a posterior for each product's quality based on user-generated ratings over time. We show theoretically that in markets where products accrue reviews at an equal rate, the strength of the rating system's prior determines the operating point on the identified trade-off: the stronger the prior, the more the marketplace discounts early ratings data (increasing individual fairness), but the slower the platform is in learning about true item quality (so efficiency suffers). We further analyze this trade-off in a responsive market where customers make decisions based on historical ratings. Through calibrated simulations in 19 different real-world datasets sourced from large online platforms, we show that the choice of prior strength mediates the same efficiency-consistency trade-off in this setting. Overall, we demonstrate that by tuning the prior as a design choice in a prior-weighted rating system, platforms can be intentional about the balance between efficiency and producer fairness.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Learning Explainable Treatment Policies with Clinician-Informed Representations: A Practical Approach

Digital health interventions (DHIs) and remote patient monitoring (RPM) have shown great potential in improving chronic disease management through personalized care. However, barriers like limited efficacy and workload concerns hinder adoption of existing DHIs; while limited sample sizes and lack of interpretability limit the effectiveness and adoption of purely black-box algorithmic DHIs. In this paper, we address these challenges by developing a pipeline for learning explainable treatment policies for RPM-enabled DHIs. We apply our approach in the real-world setting of RPM using a DHI to improve glycemic control of youth with type 1 diabetes. Our main contribution is to reveal the importance of clinical domain knowledge in developing state and action representations for effective, efficient, and interpretable targeting policies. We observe that policies learned from clinician-informed representations are significantly more efficacious and efficient than policies learned from black-box representations. This work emphasizes the importance of collaboration between ML researchers and clinicians for developing effective DHIs in the real world.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Switchback Price Experiments with Forward-Looking Demand

We consider a retailer running a switchback experiment for the price of a single product, with infinite supply. In each period, the seller chooses a price $p$ from a set of predefined prices that consist of a reference price and a few discounted price levels. The goal is to estimate the demand gradient at the reference price point, with the goal of adjusting the reference price to improve revenue after the experiment. In our model, in each period, a unit mass of buyers arrives on the market, with values distributed based on a time-varying process. Crucially, buyers are forward looking with a discounted utility and will choose to not purchase now if they expect to face a discounted price in the near future. We show that forward-looking demand introduces bias in naive estimators of the demand gradient, due to intertemporal interference. Furthermore, we prove that there is no estimator that uses data from price experiments with only two price points that can recover the correct demand gradient, even in the limit of an infinitely long experiment with an infinitesimal price discount. Moreover, we characterize the form of the bias of naive estimators. Finally, we show that with a simple three price level experiment, the seller can remove the bias due to strategic forward-looking behavior and construct an estimator for the demand gradient that asymptotically recovers the truth.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Identifying sparse treatment effects in high-dimensional outcome spaces

Based on technological advances in sensing modalities, randomized trials with primary outcomes represented as high-dimensional vectors have become increasingly prevalent. For example, these outcomes could be week-long time-series data from wearable devices or high-dimensional neuroimaging data, such as from functional magnetic resonance imaging. This paper focuses on randomized treatment studies with such high-dimensional outcomes characterized by sparse treatment effects, where interventions may influence a small number of dimensions, e.g., small temporal windows or specific brain regions. Conventional practices, such as using fixed, low-dimensional summaries of the outcomes, result in significantly reduced power for detecting treatment effects. To address this limitation, we propose a procedure that involves subset selection followed by inference. Specifically, given a potentially large set of outcome summaries, we identify the subset that captures treatment effects, which requires only one call to the Lasso, and subsequently conduct inference on the selected subset. Via theoretical analysis as well as simulations, we demonstrate that our method asymptotically selects the correct subset and increases statistical power.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Hybrid$^2$ Neural ODE Causal Modeling and an Application to Glycemic Response

Hybrid models composing mechanistic ODE-based dynamics with flexible and expressive neural network components have grown rapidly in popularity, especially in scientific domains where such ODE-based modeling offers important interpretability and validated causal grounding (e.g., for counterfactual reasoning). The incorporation of mechanistic models also provides inductive bias in standard blackbox modeling approaches, critical when learning from small datasets or partially observed, complex systems. Unfortunately, as the hybrid models become more flexible, the causal grounding provided by the mechanistic model can quickly be lost. We address this problem by leveraging another common source of domain knowledge: \emph{ranking} of treatment effects for a set of interventions, even if the precise treatment effect is unknown. We encode this information in a \emph{causal loss} that we combine with the standard predictive loss to arrive at a \emph{hybrid loss} that biases our learning towards causally valid hybrid models. We demonstrate our ability to achieve a win-win, state-of-the-art predictive performance \emph{and} causal validity, in the challenging task of modeling glucose dynamics post-exercise in individuals with type 1 diabetes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Greedy Algorithms in Multi-Armed Bandit with Many Arms

We investigate a Bayesian $k$-armed bandit problem in the \emph{many-armed} regime, where $k \geq \sqrt{T}$ and $T$ represents the time horizon. Initially, and aligned with recent literature on many-armed bandit problems, we observe that subsampling plays a key role in designing optimal algorithms; the conventional UCB algorithm is sub-optimal, whereas a subsampled UCB (SS-UCB), which selects $Θ(\sqrt{T})$ arms for execution under the UCB framework, achieves rate-optimality. However, despite SS-UCB's theoretical promise of optimal regret, it empirically underperforms compared to a greedy algorithm that consistently chooses the empirically best arm. This observation extends to contextual settings through simulations with real-world data. Our findings suggest a new form of \emph{free exploration} beneficial to greedy algorithms in the many-armed context, fundamentally linked to a tail event concerning the prior distribution of arm rewards. This finding diverges from the notion of free exploration, which relates to covariate variation, as recently discussed in contextual bandit literature. Expanding upon these insights, we establish that the subsampled greedy approach not only achieves rate-optimality for Bernoulli bandits within the many-armed regime but also attains sublinear regret across broader distributions. Collectively, our research indicates that in the many-armed regime, practitioners might find greater value in adopting greedy algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Quality Selection in Two-Sided Markets: A Constrained Price Discrimination Approach

Online platforms collect rich information about participants and then share some of this information back with them to improve market outcomes. In this paper we study the following information disclosure problem in two-sided markets: If a platform wants to maximize revenue, which sellers should the platform allow to participate, and how much of its available information about participating sellers' quality should the platform share with buyers? We study this information disclosure problem in the context of two distinct two-sided market models: one in which the platform chooses prices and the sellers choose quantities (similar to ride-sharing), and one in which the sellers choose prices (similar to e-commerce). Our main results provide conditions under which simple information structures commonly observed in practice, such as banning certain sellers from the platform while not distinguishing between participating sellers, maximize the platform's revenue. The platform's information disclosure problem naturally transforms into a constrained price discrimination problem where the constraints are determined by the equilibrium outcomes of the specific two-sided market model being studied. We analyze this constrained price discrimination problem to obtain our structural results.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2023

Experimenting under Stochastic Congestion

We study randomized experiments in a service system when stochastic congestion can arise from temporarily limited supply or excess demand. Such congestion gives rise to cross-unit interference between the waiting customers, and analytic strategies that do not account for this interference may be biased. In current practice, one of the most widely used ways to address stochastic congestion is to use switchback experiments that alternatively turn a target intervention on and off for the whole system. We find, however, that under a queueing model for stochastic congestion, the standard way of analyzing switchbacks is inefficient, and that estimators that leverage the queueing model can be materially more accurate. Additionally, we show how the queueing model enables estimation of total policy gradients from unit-level randomized experiments, thus giving practitioners an alternative experimental approach they can use without needing to pre-commit to a fixed switchback length before data collection.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Adaptive Experimental Design with Temporal Interference: A Maximum Likelihood Approach

Suppose an online platform wants to compare a treatment and control policy, e.g., two different matching algorithms in a ridesharing system, or two different inventory management algorithms in an online retail site. Standard randomized controlled trials are typically not feasible, since the goal is to estimate policy performance on the entire system. Instead, the typical current practice involves dynamically alternating between the two policies for fixed lengths of time, and comparing the average performance of each over the intervals in which they were run as an estimate of the treatment effect. However, this approach suffers from *temporal interference*: one algorithm alters the state of the system as seen by the second algorithm, biasing estimates of the treatment effect. Further, the simple non-adaptive nature of such designs implies they are not sample efficient. We develop a benchmark theoretical model in which to study optimal experimental design for this setting. We view testing the two policies as the problem of estimating the steady state difference in reward between two unknown Markov chains (i.e., policies). We assume estimation of the steady state reward for each chain proceeds via nonparametric maximum likelihood, and search for consistent (i.e., asymptotically unbiased) experimental designs that are efficient (i.e., asymptotically minimum variance). Characterizing such designs is equivalent to a Markov decision problem with a minimum variance objective; such problems generally do not admit tractable solutions. Remarkably, in our setting, using a novel application of classical martingale analysis of Markov chains via Poisson's equation, we characterize efficient designs via a succinct convex optimization problem. We use this characterization to propose a consistent, efficient online experimental design that adaptively samples the two Markov chains.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Online Learning for Traffic Routing under Unknown Preferences

In transportation networks, users typically choose routes in a decentralized and self-interested manner to minimize their individual travel costs, which, in practice, often results in inefficient overall outcomes for society. As a result, there has been a growing interest in designing road tolling schemes to cope with these efficiency losses and steer users toward a system-efficient traffic pattern. However, the efficacy of road tolling schemes often relies on having access to complete information on users' trip attributes, such as their origin-destination (O-D) travel information and their values of time, which may not be available in practice. Motivated by this practical consideration, we propose an online learning approach to set tolls in a traffic network to drive heterogeneous users with different values of time toward a system-efficient traffic pattern. In particular, we develop a simple yet effective algorithm that adjusts tolls at each time period solely based on the observed aggregate flows on the roads of the network without relying on any additional trip attributes of users, thereby preserving user privacy. In the setting where the O-D pairs and values of time of users are drawn i.i.d. at each period, we show that our approach obtains an expected regret and road capacity violation of $O(\sqrt{T})$, where $T$ is the number of periods over which tolls are updated. Our regret guarantee is relative to an offline oracle that has complete information on users' trip attributes. We further establish a $Ω(\sqrt{T})$ lower bound on the regret of any algorithm, which establishes that our algorithm is optimal up to constants. Finally, we demonstrate the superior performance of our approach relative to several benchmarks on a real-world transportation network, thereby highlighting its practical applicability.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Unbiased Experiments in Congested Networks

When developing a new networking algorithm, it is established practice to run a randomized experiment, or A/B test, to evaluate its performance. In an A/B test, traffic is randomly allocated between a treatment group, which uses the new algorithm, and a control group, which uses the existing algorithm. However, because networks are congested, both treatment and control traffic compete against each other for resources in a way that biases the outcome of these tests. This bias can have a surprisingly large effect; for example, in lab A/B tests with two widely used congestion control algorithms, the treatment appeared to deliver 150% higher throughput when used by a few flows, and 75% lower throughput when used by most flows-despite the fact that the two algorithms have identical throughput when used by all traffic. Beyond the lab, we show that A/B tests can also be biased at scale. In an experiment run in cooperation with Netflix, estimates from A/B tests mistake the direction of change of some metrics, miss changes in other metrics, and overestimate the size of effects. We propose alternative experiment designs, previously used in online platforms, to more accurately evaluate new algorithms and allow experimenters to better understand the impact of congestion on their tests.

cs.NI↗