arXiv subjects

Rebecca Surman

Publications and source records attributed to Rebecca Surman.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Machine Learning $β$-decay Half-lives and Their Application to $r$-Process Observables

Accurately modeling $β$-decay half-lives of highly neutron-rich nuclei is a critical challenge for understanding $r$-process nucleosynthesis and the resulting kilonova light curves. We introduce a data-driven approach to model $β$ decay that uses Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) trained on the latest experimental measurements to extrapolate the half-lives of neutron rich nuclei. Unlike standard deterministic regression, the MDN directly parameterizes the probability distribution of the half-lives, providing intrinsic (aleatoric) uncertainty. We contrast the intrinsic uncertainty of a single model with the range of models produced by using random variations of the input training data samples. While all models show excellent agreement with experimental data, we find that varying the training data sets produces a wide range of extrapolations, particularly along data-poor regions such as the $N=126$ isotonic chain. We then propagate a selection of model results into $r$-process network calculations to evaluate their impact on isotopic abundances. Finally, by coupling the resulting isotopic abundances with thermalization efficiencies, we translate the effective nuclear heating rates into bolometric light curves. We compare the ranges of outcomes produced from the intrinsic uncertainty of a single model to those produced by multiple independent models trained on different training data sets.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Constraints on the r-process Delay Time from Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies

The ancient stellar populations and simple structure of the local dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs) make them excellent laboratories for studying the chemical evolution of the early universe. In this paper, we fit one-zone galactic chemical evolution models to C, Mg, Si, Ca, Fe, Sr, Y, Ba, and Eu abundances in the dSphs Sculptor and Draco. By including the s- and r-processes in our model, we are able to place constraints on the timescale of r-process enrichment in these dSphs. We find that neutron star mergers cannot be the only source of the r-process in Sculptor and Draco, and that a prompt r-process source is required to explain the observed stellar abundances. When neutron star mergers are the only source of the r-process in our models, their minimum delay time must be just 14-16 Myr. The neutron-capture abundances in Sculptor and Draco can also be fit by models with a longer neutron star merger minimum delay time combined with a prompt r-process source that operates on the same timescale as massive star evolution, such as magneto-rotational supernovae. Additionally, the Sr and Y abundances in the dSphs set limits on the Sr and Y yields per r-process event. We find that theoretical r-process yields overestimate Sr and Y production by a factor of up to 100.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

HESS J1507-622: A Plausible Young Galactic Kilonova Remnant

HESS J1507$-$622 is an unusual TeV gamma-ray source in the H.E.S.S. Galactic Plane Survey, distinguished by its off-plane location ($b \simeq -3.5^{\circ}$) and compact angular extent ($\sim 0.3^{\circ}$). Its location and morphology challenge conventional pulsar wind nebula and supernova remnant interpretations, and the absence of a detected shell or associated pulsar leaves its origin unresolved. Here, we propose that HESS J1507$-$622 is a young Galactic kilonova remnant with gamma-ray emission of leptonic origin. In this scenario, the source's off-plane location is naturally explained by the natal kick imparted to the progenitor binary neutron star system. We demonstrate that a leptonic kilonova remnant model can successfully reproduce the observed GeV-TeV flux via inverse-Compton scattering from shock-accelerated electrons, while the corresponding synchrotron emission remains below current X-ray and radio upper limits. Based on the source's energetics and angular size, we infer a distance of 3.8-14.3 kpc and an age of 0.2-3.0 kyr. Importantly, our analysis favors a kilonova remnant younger than 1 kyr. The lack of a historical naked-eye record can be explained by the transient's rapid fading, far-southern declination, and potential line-of-sight extinction. We further assess the detectability of unique multi-wavelength signatures that could confirm this hypothesis. We find promising prospects for detecting the unique MeV gamma rays from the decay of $r$-process radioisotopes using future observatories, alongside complementary low-energy signatures from thermal dust emission and a possible optical light echo. These distinct signals offer definitive tests of the kilonova remnant interpretation and motivate targeted observations with current and future facilities.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Correlated and uncorrelated Monte Carlo neutron capture rate variations in weak $\textit{r}$-process simulations

Reliable predictions of weak rapid neutron capture ($\textit{r}$-process) abundances require a systematic treatment of nuclear physics uncertainties, especially neutron capture rates far from stability. We employ new neutron capture rates from cross sections calculated with Yet Another Hauser-Feshbach Code ($\texttt{YAHFC}$) using an uncertainty-quantified Koning-Delaroche potential modified for use on neutron-rich systems. Using these rates as a baseline, we perform Monte-Carlo studies with independent rate variations (uncorrelated Monte Carlo) and find correlations between specific neutron capture rates and the resulting elemental abundances for the three weak r-process scenarios: two separate simulations of neutron star merger remnant accretion disks and a simulation of a magnetorotational supernova. We discuss the underlying nuclear dynamics that give rise to these correlations and the role of astrophysical conditions in them. We demonstrate how reducing the uncertainty in these rates would improve the prospects for conducting precision $\textit{r}$-process studies in the future. We additionally present a correlated Monte Carlo study, which incorporates the full covariance matrix that describes the relationships between individual neutron capture rates that arise from an uncertainty-quantified optical potential. We find that the magnitude of the uncertainty in the abundance pattern is similar to that produced by an uncorrelated Monte Carlo that employs only the on-diagonal components of the covariance matrix. We show how correlations restructure how the abundances co-vary, but do not necessarily decrease the overall uncertainty envelope.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Identifying observable MeV lines from the decays of weak and main $r$-process isotopes in mergers

We consider predictions for the MeV gamma-ray spectrum emitted by the $β$ decays of freshly synthesized isotopes from a neutron star merger at timescales of relevance for post-merger (days) and remnant (years) emission. We develop a search algorithm to identify observable spectral peaks and then determine if a specific isotope has a dominant emission line producing the spectral feature. We predict emission spectra using nucleosynthesis calculations which consider nuclear models with distinct masses, $β$-decays, and fission properties as well as variations on main ($A>130$) and weak ($A<130$) $r$-process astrophysical conditions. We tabulate all lines from decaying isotopes that our procedure identifies and provide the predicted range in time over which each line could be visible. We find that Rh-106 presents a unique opportunity to distinguish between main and weak $r$-process emission, as our calculated spectrum above $\sim 1$ MeV for an event dominated by the weak $r$ process is identical to the Rh-106 emission spectrum from $\sim$ 0.2 to $\sim$17 years. We further find emission from species such as Hf-181, Ta-182, Ta-184, and Re-188 offers the potential to be able to distinguish between nuclear models. We investigate whether the 2.6 MeV strong gamma-ray line from Tl-208 is predicted to be robustly observable across calculation variations on both timescale of days and years. We find Tl-208 to consistently shine through on the order of years, though it can face competition from Ga-72 and La-140 at early times ($\sim$ days). We additionally highlight numerous isotopes of interest for observation and nuclear experiment.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Gardening on the Moon: An Advection-Diffusion Model to Guide the Search for Supernova Debris in the Lunar Regolith

The vertical redistribution of materials in the lunar regolith - ranging from continuously produced space-weathering products to sporadic pulses of supernova- or kilonova-derived isotopes - remains a fundamental problem in planetary science. We present a unified stochastic model of regolith gardening induced by the impact flux. Treating gardening as a competition between impact-driven advection and diffusion predicts the maturity profiles of Apollo cores over more than two orders of magnitude in time ($1.4 \times 10^7$ to $4.5 \times 10^8$ years). This model describes well the depth profiles of live Fe60 in Apollo regolith samples, suggesting that supernova dust capture is independent of native iron abundance, and is consistent with a uniform influx at the latitudes of the Apollo landing sites. We extend our model to predict lunar signals for live r-process species that might originate from supernovae or kilonovae: Pu244 tied to terrestrial detections, and I129, Hf182, and Cm247 based on r-process calculations. The Pu244/Fe60 depth profile can probe the origin of Pu244, motivating searches in Artemis regolith samples down to depths O(100) cm.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Proton-rich production of lanthanides: the $νi$ process

The astrophysical origin of the lanthanides is an open question in nuclear astrophysics. Besides the widely studied $s$, $i$, and $r$ processes in moderately-to-strongly neutron-rich environments, an intriguing alternative site for lanthanide production could in fact be robustly $\textit{proton-rich}$ matter outflows from core-collapse supernovae under specific conditions -- in particular, high-entropy winds with enhanced neutrino luminosity and fast dynamical timescales. In this environment, excess protons present after charged particle reactions have ceased can continue to be converted to neutrons by (anti-)neutrino interactions, producing a neutron capture reaction flow up to A~200. This scenario, christened the $νi$ process in a recent paper, has previously been discussed as a possibility. Here, we examine the prospects for $νi$ process through the lens of stellar abundance patterns, bolometric lightcurves, and galactic chemical evolution models, with a particular focus on hypernovae as candidate sites. We identify specific lanthanide signatures for which the $νi$ process can provide a credible alternative to $r$/$i$ processes.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Effect of Finite-Temperature $β$-Decay Rates on the Rapid Neutron Capture Process

$β$-decay is known to play an essential role in the rapid neutron capture process ($r$-process) during $(n, γ) \leftrightarrow (γ, n)$ equilibrium and freeze-out when the neutron-rich nuclei decay back to stability. Recent systematic theoretical studies on $β$-decay at finite temperature indicated that under hot conditions ($T\sim10$~GK), a significant acceleration of $β$-decay rates is expected, especially for nuclei near stability. This corresponds to the early stage of the $r$-process. In this study, we investigate the effect of the $β$-decays in finite temperature using the rates calculated with the finite-temperature proton-neutron relativistic quasiparticle random-phase approximation (FT-PNRQRPA). We explore a variety of astrophysical conditions and find that the effect on the abundance pattern is significant in hot and moderately neutron-rich conditions such as are expected in magnetorotational supernovae. Accelerated $β$-decay rates also increase the heating rate in the early phase, resulting in an additional modification of the final abundance pattern.

nucl-th↗

arXiv2025

Implications of a Weakening N = 126 Shell Closure Away from Stability for r-Process Astrophysical Conditions

The formation of the third r-process abundance peak near A = 195 is highly sensitive to both nuclear structure far from stability and the astrophysical conditions that produce the heaviest elements. In particular, the N = 126 shell closure plays a crucial role in shaping this peak. Experimental data hints that the shell weakens as proton number departs from Z = 82, a trend largely missed by global mass models. To investigate its impact on r-process nucleosynthesis, we employ both standard global models with strong closures and modified Duflo-Zuker (DZ) models that reproduce the weakening, combined with three sets of beta minus decay rates. Strong shell closures generate sharply peaked abundances, whereas weakened closures consistent with the experimental trend produce broader, flatter patterns. Accurately reproducing the solar third peak under weakened shell strength requires highly neutron-rich conditions (Ye <= 0.175) and slower decay rates. These results demonstrate that a weakening N = 126 shell closure away from stability imposes significant constraints on the astrophysical environments of the r-process and underscores the need for precise mass measurements and improved characterization of beta minus decay properties in this region.

nucl-th↗

arXiv2025

Gamma rays as a signature of r-process producing supernovae: remnants and future Galactic explosions

We consider the question of whether core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) can produce rapid neutron capture process (r-process) elements and how future MeV gamma-ray observations could address this. Rare types of CCSNe characterized by substantial magnetic fields and rotation, known as magnetorotational supernovae (MR-SNe), are theoretically predicted to produce these elements, although direct observational evidence is lacking. We suggest that this critical question be addressed through the study of some of the eleven CCSN remnants located within 10 kpc, as well as through the detection of gamma-ray emission from a future Galactic supernova. We use a two-dimensional MR-SN model to estimate the expected gamma flux stemming from nuclear decays in the range of a few tens of keV to a few MeV. Our results indicate that an observation of Sn-126 (Sb-126) in a remnant stands out as a signature of an r-process-producing supernova. Since the neutron-rich conditions that lead to the production of the r-process could also enhance the production of Fe-60, the detection of substantial Fe-60 (Co-60) would be indicative of favorable conditions for the r-process. In the case of a future supernova explosion, when the evolution of the spectrum is studied over ten days to a few years, a rich picture emerges. At various epochs, second peak r-process isotopes such as Sb-125, I-131, Te-132, I-132 and La-140 produce gamma-ray signals that emerge above the background from explosive burning products and electron-positron annihilation. The weak r-process isotopes Nb-95, Ru-103, Rh-106 also have periods of prominence. While MR-SNe are predicted to have a relatively small main r-process contribution, third peak isotopes like Ir-194 could still be above next-generation MeV gamma instrument sensitivities.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Constraining Nuclear Mass Models Using r-process Observables with Multi-objective Optimization

Predicting nuclear masses is a longstanding challenge. One path forward is machine learning (ML) which trains on experimental data, but can suffer large errors when extrapolating toward neutron-rich species. In nature, such masses shape observables for the rapid neutron capture process (r-process), which in principle could inform ML models. Here we introduce a multi-objective optimization approach using the Pareto Front algorithm. We show that this technique, capable of identifying models which generate r-process abundances aligning with both Solar and stellar data, is a promising method to select ML models with reliable extrapolation power.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Emulation of the final r-process abundance pattern with a neural network

This work explores the construction of a fast emulator for the calculation of the final pattern of nucleosynthesis in the rapid neutron capture process (the $r$-process). An emulator is built using a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN). We train the ANN with nuclear data and relative abundance patterns. We take as input the $β$-decay half-lives and the one-neutron separation energy of the nuclei in the rare-earth region. The output is the final isotopic abundance pattern. In this work, we focus on the nuclear data and abundance patterns in the rare-earth region to reduce the dimension of the input and output space. We show that the ANN can capture the effect of the changes in the nuclear physics inputs on the final $r$-process abundance pattern in the adopted astrophysical conditions. We employ the deep ensemble method to quantify the prediction uncertainty of the neutal network emulator. The emulator achieves a speed-up by a factor of about 20,000 in obtaining a final abundance pattern in the rare-earth region. The emulator may be utilized in statistical analyses such as uncertainty quantification, inverse problems, and sensitivity analysis.

nucl-th↗

arXiv2024

Collective neutrino oscillations and heavy-element nucleosynthesis in supernovae: exploring potential effects of many-body neutrino correlations

In high-energy astrophysical processes involving compact objects, such as core-collapse supernovae or binary neutron star mergers, neutrinos play an important role in the synthesis of nuclides. Neutrinos in these environments can experience collective flavor oscillations driven by neutrino-neutrino interactions, including coherent forward scattering and incoherent (collisional) effects. Recently, there has been interest in exploring potential novel behaviors in collective oscillations of neutrinos by going beyond the one-particle effective or "mean-field" treatments. Here, we seek to explore implications of collective neutrino oscillations, in the mean-field treatment and beyond, for the nucleosynthesis yields in supernova environments with different astrophysical conditions and neutrino inputs. We find that collective oscillations can impact the operation of the $νp$-process and $r$-process nucleosynthesis in supernovae. The potential impact is particularly strong in high-entropy, proton-rich conditions, where we find that neutrino interactions can nudge an initial $νp$ process neutron rich, resulting in a unique combination of proton-rich low-mass nuclei as well as neutron-rich high-mass nuclei. We describe this neutrino-induced neutron capture process as the "$ν$i process". In addition, nontrivial quantum correlations among neutrinos, if present significantly, could lead to different nuclide yields compared to the corresponding mean-field oscillation treatments, by virtue of modifying the evolution of the relevant one-body neutrino observables.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Uncertainty Quantification of Mass Models using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging

Developments in the description of the masses of atomic nuclei have led to various nuclear mass models that provide predictions for masses across the whole chart of nuclides. These mass models play an important role in understanding the synthesis of heavy elements in the rapid neutron capture ($r$-) process. However, it is still a challenging task to estimate the size of uncertainty associated with the predictions of each mass model. In this work, a method to quantify the mass uncertainty using \textit{ensemble Bayesian model averaging} (EBMA) is introduced. This Bayesian method provides a natural way to perform model averaging, selection, calibration, and uncertainty quantification, by combining the mass models as a mixture of normal distributions, whose parameters are optimized against the experimental data, employing the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using the No-U-Turn sampler (NUTS). The average size of our best uncertainty estimates of neutron separation energies based on the AME2003 data is 0.48 MeV and covers 95% of new data in the AME2020. The uncertainty estimates can also be used to detect outliers with respect to the trend of experimental data and theoretical predictions.

nucl-th↗

arXiv2024

Do we Owe our Existence to Gravitational Waves?

Two heavy elements essential to human biology are thought to have been produced by the astrophysical $r$-process, which occurs in neutron-rich environments: iodine is a constituent of thyroid hormones that affect many physiological processes including growth and development, body temperature and heart rate, and bromine is essential for tissue development and architecture. Collisions of neutron stars (kilonovae) have been identified as sources of $r$-process elements including tellurium, which is adjacent to iodine in the periodic table, and lanthanides. Neutron-star collisions arise from energy loss due to gravitational-wave emission from binary systems, leading us to suggest that gravitational waves have played a key role in enabling human life by producing iodine and bromine. We propose probing this proposal by searching in lunar material for live $^{129}$I deposited by a recent nearby kilonova explosion.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Element abundance patterns in stars indicate fission of nuclei heavier than uranium

The heaviest chemical elements are naturally produced by the rapid neutron-capture process (r-process) during neutron star mergers or supernovae. The r-process production of elements heavier than uranium (transuranic nuclei) is poorly understood and inaccessible to experiments, so must be extrapolated using nucleosynthesis models. We examine element abundances in a sample of stars that are enhanced in r-process elements. The abundances of elements Ru, Rh, Pd, and Ag (atomic numbers Z = 44 to 47, mass numbers A = 99 to 110) correlate with those of heavier elements (63 <= Z <= 78, A > 150). There is no correlation for neighboring elements (34 <= Z <= 42 and 48 <= Z <= 62). We interpret this as evidence that fission fragments of transuranic nuclei contribute to the abundances. Our results indicate that neutron-rich nuclei with mass numbers >260 are produced in r-process events.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Thallium-208: a beacon of in situ neutron capture nucleosynthesis

We demonstrate that the well-known 2.6 MeV gamma-ray emission line from thallium-208 could serve as a real-time indicator of astrophysical heavy element production, with both rapid (r) and intermediate (i) neutron capture processes capable of its synthesis. We consider the r process in a Galactic neutron star merger and show Tl-208 to be detectable from ~12 hours to ~10 days, and again ~1-20 years post-event. Detection of Tl-208 represents the only identified prospect for a direct signal of lead production (implying gold synthesis), arguing for the importance of future MeV telescope missions which aim to detect Galactic events but may also be able to reach some nearby galaxies in the Local Group.

nucl-th↗

arXiv2023

Could a Kilonova Kill: a Threat Assessment

Binary neutron star mergers (BNS) produce high-energy emissions from several physically different sources, including a gamma-ray burst (GRB) and its afterglow, a kilonova, and, at late times, a remnant many parsecs in size. Ionizing radiation from these sources can be dangerous for life on Earth-like planets when located too close. Work to date has explored the substantial danger posed by the GRB to on-axis observers: here we focus instead on the potential threats posed to nearby off-axis observers. Our analysis is based largely on observations of the GW 170817/GRB 170817A multi-messenger event, as well as theoretical predictions. For baseline kilonova parameters, we find that the X-ray emission from the afterglow may be lethal out to $\sim 5$ pc and the off-axis gamma-ray emission may threaten a range out to $\sim 4$ pc, whereas the greatest threat comes years after the explosion, from the cosmic rays accelerated by the kilonova blast, which can be lethal out to distances up to $\sim 11$ pc. The distances quoted here are typical, but the values have significant uncertainties and depend on the viewing angle, ejected mass, and explosion energy in ways we quantify. Assessing the overall threat to Earth-like planets, have a similar kill distance to supernovae, but are far less common. However, our results rely on the scant available kilonova data, and multi-messenger observations will clarify the danger posed by such events.

astro-ph.HE↗