arXiv subjects

Rene Carmona

Publications and source records attributed to Rene Carmona.

47 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2013

The Self-Financing Equation in High Frequency Markets

High Frequency Trading (HFT) represents an ever growing proportion of all financial transactions as most markets have now switched to electronic order book systems. The main goal of the paper is to propose continuous time equations which generalize the self-financing relationships of frictionless markets to electronic markets with limit order books. We use NASDAQ ITCH data to identify significant empirical features such as price impact and recovery, rough paths of inventories and vanishing bid-ask spreads. Starting from these features, we identify microscopic identities holding on the trade clock, and through a diffusion limit argument, derive continuous time equations which provide a macroscopic description of properties of the order book. These equations naturally differentiate between trading via limit and market orders. We give several applications (including hedging European options with limit orders, market maker optimal spread choice, and toxicity indexes) to illustrate their impact and how they can be used to the benefit of Low Frequency Traders (LFTs).

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2013

Mean Field Games and Systemic Risk

We propose a simple model of inter-bank borrowing and lending where the evolution of the log-monetary reserves of $N$ banks is described by a system of diffusion processes coupled through their drifts in such a way that stability of the system depends on the rate of inter-bank borrowing and lending. Systemic risk is characterized by a large number of banks reaching a default threshold by a given time horizon. Our model incorporates a game feature where each bank controls its rate of borrowing/lending to a central bank. The optimization reflects the desire of each bank to borrow from the central bank when its monetary reserve falls below a critical level or lend if it rises above this critical level which is chosen here as the average monetary reserve. Borrowing from or lending to the central bank is also subject to a quadratic cost at a rate which can be fixed by the regulator. We solve explicitly for Nash equilibria with finitely many players, and we show that in this model the central bank acts as a clearing house, adding liquidity to the system without affecting its systemic risk. We also study the corresponding Mean Field Game in the limit of large number of banks in the presence of a common noise.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2012

Mean Field Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations

The purpose of this note is to provide an existence result for the solution of fully coupled Forward Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (FBSDEs) of the mean field type. These equations occur in the study of mean field games and the optimal control of dynamics of the McKean Vlasov type.

math.PR↗

arXiv2012

Control of McKean-Vlasov Dynamics versus Mean Field Games

We discuss and compare two methods of investigations for the asymptotic regime of stochastic differential games with a finite number of players as the number of players tends to the infinity. These two methods differ in the order in which optimization and passage to the limit are performed. When optimizing first, the asymptotic problem is usually referred to as a mean-field game. Otherwise, it reads as an optimization problem over controlled dynamics of McKean-Vlasov type. Both problems lead to the analysis of forward-backward stochastic differential equations, the coefficients of which depend on the marginal distributions of the solutions. We explain the difference between the nature and solutions to the two approaches by investigating the corresponding forward-backward systems. General results are stated and specific examples are treated, especially when cost functionals are of linear-quadratic type.

math.PR↗

arXiv2012

Singular Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations and Emissions Derivatives

We introduce two simple models of forward-backward stochastic differential equations with a singular terminal condition and we explain how and why they appear naturally as models for the valuation of CO2 emission allowances. Single phase cap-and-trade schemes lead readily to terminal conditions given by indicator functions of the forward component, and using fine partial differential equations estimates, we show that the existence theory of these equations, as well as the properties of the candidates for solution, depend strongly upon the characteristics of the forward dynamics. Finally, we give a first order Taylor expansion and show how to numerically calibrate some of these models for the purpose of CO2 option pricing.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2012

Singular FBSDEs and Scalar Conservation Laws Driven by Diffusion Processes

Motivated by earlier work on the use of fully-coupled Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (henceforth FBSDEs) in the analysis of mathematical models for the CO2 emissions markets, the present study is concerned with the analysis of these equations when the generator of the forward equation has a conservative degenerate structure and the terminal condition of the backward equation is a non-smooth function of the terminal value of the forward component. We show that a general form of existence and uniqueness result still holds. When the function giving the terminal condition is binary, we also show that the flow property of the forward component of the solution can fail at the terminal time. In particular, we prove that a Dirac point mass appears in its distribution, exactly at the location of the jump of the binary function giving the terminal condition. We provide a detailed analysis of the breakdown of the Markovian representation of the solution at the terminal time.

math.PR↗

arXiv2012

Probabilistic Analysis of Mean-Field Games

The purpose of this paper is to provide a complete probabilistic analysis of a large class of stochastic differential games for which the interaction between the players is of mean-field type. We implement the Mean-Field Games strategy developed analytically by Lasry and Lions in a purely probabilistic framework, relying on tailor-made forms of the stochastic maximum principle. While we assume that the state dynamics are affine in the states and the controls, our assumptions on the nature of the costs are rather weak, and surprisingly, the dependence of all the coefficients upon the statistical distribution of the states remains of a rather general nature. Our probabilistic approach calls for the solution of systems of forward-backward stochastic differential equations of a McKean-Vlasov type for which no existence result is known, and for which we prove existence and regularity of the corresponding value function. Finally, we prove that solutions of the mean-field game as formulated by Lasry and Lions do indeed provide approximate Nash equilibriums for games with a large number of players, and we quantify the nature of the approximation.

math.PR↗

arXiv2012

High Frequency Market Making

Since they were authorized by the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission in 1998, electronic exchanges have boomed, and by 2010 high frequency trading accounted for over 70% of equity trades in the US. Such markets are thought to increase liquidity because of the presence of market makers, who are willing to trade as counterparties at any time, in exchange for a fee, the bid-ask spread. In this paper, we propose an equilibrium model showing how such market makers provide liquidity. The model relies on a codebook for client trades, the implied alpha. After solving the individual clients optimization problems and identifying their implied alphas, we frame the market maker stochastic optimization problem as a stochastic control problem with an infinite dimensional control variable. Assuming either identical time horizons for all the clients, or a stochastic partial differential equation model for their beliefs, we solve the market maker problem and derive tractable formulas for the optimal strategy and the resulting limit-order book dynamics.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2012

Electricity price modeling and asset valuation: a multi-fuel structural approach

We introduce a new and highly tractable structural model for spot and derivative prices in electricity markets. Using a stochastic model of the bid stack, we translate the demand for power and the prices of generating fuels into electricity spot prices. The stack structure allows for a range of generator efficiencies per fuel type and for the possibility of future changes in the merit order of the fuels. The derived spot price process captures important stylized facts of historical electricity prices, including both spikes and the complex dependence upon its underlying supply and demand drivers. Furthermore, under mild and commonly used assumptions on the distributions of the input factors, we obtain closed-form formulae for electricity forward contracts and for spark and dark spread options. As merit order dynamics and fuel forward prices are embedded into the model, we capture a much richer and more realistic dependence structure than can be achieved by classical reduced-form models. We illustrate these advantages by comparing with Margrabe's formula and a simple cointegration model, and highlight important implications for the valuation of power plants.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2012

The Valuation of Clean Spread Options: Linking Electricity, Emissions and Fuels

The purpose of the paper is to present a new pricing method for clean spread options, and to illustrate its main features on a set of numerical examples produced by a dedicated computer code. The novelty of the approach is embedded in the use of structural models as opposed to reduced-form models which fail to capture properly the fundamental dependencies between the economic factors entering the production process.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2004

A Characterization of Hedging Portfolios for Interest Rate Contingent Claims

We consider the problem of hedging a European interest rate contingent claim with a portfolio of zero-coupon bonds and show that an HJM type Markovian model driven by an infinite number of sources of randomness does not have some of the shortcomings found in the classical finite-factor models. Indeed, under natural conditions on the model, we find that there exists a unique hedging strategy, and that this strategy has the desirable property that at all times it consists of bonds with maturities that are less than or equal to the longest maturity of the bonds underlying the claim.

math.PR↗