arXiv subjects

Richard JB Dobson

Publications and source records attributed to Richard JB Dobson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Longitudinal wearable monitoring and polygenic risk for incident major depressive disorder in the All of Us Research Program

Major depressive disorder (MDD) risk reflects both stable inherited liability and dynamic behavioral patterns, yet these dimensions are rarely examined together using long-term objective data in real-world settings. Here, we integrated genomic, electronic health record (EHR), and longitudinal Fitbit wearable data from 3,030 adults of genetically inferred European ancestry in the All of Us Research Program, 284 of whom developed EHR-recorded incident MDD after a 180-day baseline period. Time-varying Cox models examined associations of MDD polygenic risk scores (PRS), monthly wearable-derived physical activity and sleep features, and interactions between wearable features and MDD PRS with incident MDD. Higher MDD PRS, lower daily steps, lower light and vigorous physical activity, lower sleep efficiency, and greater sleep duration variability were associated with higher risk of EHR-recorded incident MDD. The associations of sedentary time and sleep duration variability with incident MDD differed across MDD PRS levels, with stronger risk associations among participants with higher MDD PRS. PRS-stratified hazard ratio curves further indicated that comparable estimated risk corresponded to more favorable behavioral levels (such as higher daily step counts and more stable sleep) among participants with higher MDD PRS than among those with lower MDD PRS. Sequentially integrating MDD PRS, baseline wearable features, monthly wearable features, and selected interactions between wearable features and MDD PRS increased model discrimination, with the C-index increasing from 0.637 to 0.705. These findings support the complementary value of inherited liability and longitudinal real-world behavioral monitoring for incident MDD risk characterization and may inform future work on genetically informed digital phenotyping for personalized risk monitoring and prevention.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

FastOMOP: A Foundational Architecture for Reliable Agentic Real-World Evidence Generation on OMOP CDM data

The Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership Common Data Model (OMOP CDM), maintained by the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) collaboration, enabled the harmonisation of electronic health records data of nearly one billion patients in 83 countries. Yet generating real-world evidence (RWE) from these repositories remains a manual process requiring clinical, epidemiological and technical expertise. LLMs and multi-agent systems have shown promise for clinical tasks, but RWE automation exposes a fundamental challenge: agentic systems introduce emergent behaviours, coordination failures and safety risks that existing approaches fail to govern. No infrastructure exists to ensure agentic RWE generation is flexible, safe and auditable across the lifecycle. We introduce FastOMOP, an open-source multi-agent architecture that addresses this gap by separating three infrastructure layers, governance, observability and orchestration, from pluggable agent-teams. Governance is enforced at the process boundary through deterministic validation independent of agent reasoning, ensuring no compromised or hallucinating agent can bypass safety controls. Agent teams for phenotyping, study design and statistical analysis inherit these guarantees through controlled tool exposure. We validated FastOMOP using a natural-language-to-SQL agent team across three OMOP CDM datasets: synthetic data from Synthea, MIMIC-IV and a real-world NHS dataset from Lancashire Teaching Hospitals (IDRIL). FastOMOP achieved reliability scores of 0.84-0.94 with perfect adversarial and out-of-scope block rates, demonstrating process-boundary governance delivers safety guarantees independent of model choice. These results indicate that the reliability gap in RWE deployment is architectural rather than model capability, and establish FastOMOP as a governed architecture for progressive RWE automation.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Preoperative Decline and Postoperative Recovery of Wearable-Derived Physical Activity Over a Four-Year Perioperative Period in Total Knee and Hip Arthroplasty: Evidence from the All of Us Research Program

Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA) improve symptoms in end-stage osteoarthritis, yet long-term objective characterization of perioperative physical activity trajectories remains limited. We conducted a longitudinal observational study within the All of Us Research Program dataset, linking electronic health records with continuous Fitbit-derived step count data over a four-year perioperative window (two years before and two years after arthroplasty). Piecewise linear mixed-effects models characterized preoperative declines and postoperative recovery trajectories, and time-to-recovery was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards models under remote and immediate preoperative physical activity baseline definitions. Among 238 participants (147 TKA; 91 THA), both procedures exhibited progressive preoperative decline with distinct procedure-specific patterns and staged postoperative recovery: rapid improvement during weeks 1-6, decelerating gains through weeks 7-19/20, and subsequent stabilization through week 104. Recovery to remote and immediate baselines differed in timing (median 22 vs 13 weeks) and associated predictors. Higher immediate preoperative activity was associated with greater likelihood of recovery to habitual activity levels, underscoring the relevance of preoperative functional reserve and surgical timing. These findings demonstrate the potential of long-term wearable monitoring to refine assessment of functional outcomes, guide recovery expectations, and support perioperative management.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

Physical Activity Trajectories Preceding Incident Major Depressive Disorder Diagnosis Using Consumer Wearable Devices in the All of Us Research Program: Case-Control Study

Low physical activity is a known risk factor for major depressive disorder (MDD), but changes in activity before a first clinical diagnosis remain unclear, especially using long-term objective measurements. This study characterized trajectories of wearable-measured physical activity during the year preceding incident MDD diagnosis. We conducted a retrospective nested case-control study using linked electronic health record and Fitbit data from the All of Us Research Program. Adults with at least 6 months of valid wearable data in the year before diagnosis were eligible. Incident MDD cases were matched to controls on age, sex, body mass index, and index time (up to four controls per case). Daily step counts and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were aggregated into monthly averages. Linear mixed-effects models compared trajectories from 12 months before diagnosis to diagnosis. Within cases, contrasts identified when activity first significantly deviated from levels 12 months prior. The cohort included 4,104 participants (829 cases and 3,275 controls; 81.7% women; median age 48.4 years). Compared with controls, cases showed consistently lower activity and significant downward trajectories in both step counts and MVPA during the year before diagnosis (P < 0.001). Significant declines appeared about 4 months before diagnosis for step counts and 5 months for MVPA. Exploratory analyses suggested subgroup differences, including steeper declines in men, greater intensity reductions at older ages, and persistently low activity among individuals with obesity. Sustained within-person declines in physical activity emerged months before incident MDD diagnosis. Longitudinal wearable monitoring may provide early signals to support risk stratification and earlier intervention.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

CSAI: Conditional Self-Attention Imputation for Healthcare Time-series

We introduce the Conditional Self-Attention Imputation (CSAI) model, a novel recurrent neural network architecture designed to address the challenges of complex missing data patterns in multivariate time series derived from hospital electronic health records (EHRs). CSAI extends state-of-the-art neural network-based imputation by introducing key modifications specific to EHR data: a) attention-based hidden state initialisation to capture both long- and short-range temporal dependencies prevalent in EHRs, b) domain-informed temporal decay to mimic clinical data recording patterns, and c) a non-uniform masking strategy that models non-random missingness by calibrating weights according to both temporal and cross-sectional data characteristics. Comprehensive evaluation across four EHR benchmark datasets demonstrates CSAI's effectiveness compared to state-of-the-art architectures in data restoration and downstream tasks. CSAI is integrated into PyPOTS, an open-source Python toolbox designed for machine learning tasks on partially observed time series. This work significantly advances the state of neural network imputation applied to EHRs by more closely aligning algorithmic imputation with clinical realities.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Grounding Large Language Models in Clinical Evidence: A Retrieval-Augmented Generation System for Querying UK NICE Clinical Guidelines

This paper presents the development and evaluation of a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) system for querying the United Kingdom's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) clinical guidelines using Large Language Models (LLMs). The extensive length and volume of these guidelines can impede their utilisation within a time-constrained healthcare system, a challenge this project addresses through the creation of a system capable of providing users with precisely matched information in response to natural language queries. The system's retrieval architecture, composed of a hybrid embedding mechanism, was evaluated against a corpus of 10,195 text chunks derived from three hundred guidelines. It demonstrates high performance, with a Mean Reciprocal Rank (MRR) of 0.814, a Recall of 81% at the first chunk and of 99.1% within the top ten retrieved chunks, when evaluated on 7901 queries. The most significant impact of the RAG system was observed during the generation phase. When evaluated on a manually curated dataset of seventy question-answer pairs, RAG-enhanced models showed substantial gains in performance. Faithfulness, the measure of whether an answer is supported by the source text, was increased by 64.7 percentage points to 99.5% for the RAG-enhanced O4-Mini model and significantly outperformed the medical-focused Meditron3-8B LLM, which scored 43%. Clinical evaluation by seven Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) further validated these findings, with GPT-4.1 achieving 98.7% accuracy while reducing unsafe responses by 67% compared to O4-Mini (from 3.0 to 1.0 per evaluator). This study thus establishes RAG as an effective, reliable, and scalable approach for applying generative AI in healthcare, enabling cost-effective access to medical guidelines.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Unlocking Electronic Health Records: A Hybrid Graph RAG Approach to Safe Clinical AI for Patient QA

Electronic health record (EHR) systems present clinicians with vast repositories of clinical information, creating a significant cognitive burden where critical details are easily overlooked. While Large Language Models (LLMs) offer transformative potential for data processing, they face significant limitations in clinical settings, particularly regarding context grounding and hallucinations. Current solutions typically isolate retrieval methods focusing either on structured data (SQL/Cypher) or unstructured semantic search but fail to integrate both simultaneously. This work presents MediGRAF (Medical Graph Retrieval Augmented Framework), a novel hybrid Graph RAG system that bridges this gap. By uniquely combining Neo4j Text2Cypher capabilities for structured relationship traversal with vector embeddings for unstructured narrative retrieval, MediGRAF enables natural language querying of the complete patient journey. Using 10 patients from the MIMIC-IV dataset (generating 5,973 nodes and 5,963 relationships), we generated enough nodes and data for patient level question answering (QA), and we evaluated this architecture across varying query complexities. The system demonstrated 100\% recall for factual queries which means all relevant information was retrieved and in the output, while complex inference tasks achieved a mean expert quality score of 4.25/5 with zero safety violations. These results demonstrate that hybrid graph-grounding significantly advances clinical information retrieval, offering a safer, more comprehensive alternative to standard LLM deployments.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

The Psychogenic Machine: Simulating AI Psychosis, Delusion Reinforcement and Harm Enablement in Large Language Models

Background: Emerging reports of "AI psychosis" are on the rise, where user-LLM interactions may exacerbate or induce psychosis or adverse psychological symptoms. Whilst the sycophantic and agreeable nature of LLMs can be beneficial, it becomes a vector for harm by reinforcing delusional beliefs in vulnerable users. Methods: Psychosis-bench is a novel benchmark designed to systematically evaluate the psychogenicity of LLMs comprises 16 structured, 12-turn conversational scenarios simulating the progression of delusional themes(Erotic Delusions, Grandiose/Messianic Delusions, Referential Delusions) and potential harms. We evaluated eight prominent LLMs for Delusion Confirmation (DCS), Harm Enablement (HES), and Safety Intervention(SIS) across explicit and implicit conversational contexts. Findings: Across 1,536 simulated conversation turns, all LLMs demonstrated psychogenic potential, showing a strong tendency to perpetuate rather than challenge delusions (mean DCS of 0.91 $\pm$0.88). Models frequently enabled harmful user requests (mean HES of 0.69 $\pm$0.84) and offered safety interventions in only roughly a third of applicable turns (mean SIS of 0.37 $\pm$0.48). 51 / 128 (39.8%) of scenarios had no safety interventions offered. Performance was significantly worse in implicit scenarios, models were more likely to confirm delusions and enable harm while offering fewer interventions (p < .001). A strong correlation was found between DCS and HES (rs = .77). Model performance varied widely, indicating that safety is not an emergent property of scale alone. Conclusion: This study establishes LLM psychogenicity as a quantifiable risk and underscores the urgent need for re-thinking how we train LLMs. We frame this issue not merely as a technical challenge but as a public health imperative requiring collaboration between developers, policymakers, and healthcare professionals.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Developing and Evaluating an AI-Assisted Prediction Model for Unplanned Intensive Care Admissions following Elective Neurosurgery using Natural Language Processing within an Electronic Healthcare Record System

Introduction: Timely care in a specialised neuro-intensive therapy unit (ITU) reduces mortality and hospital stays, with planned admissions being safer than unplanned ones. However, post-operative care decisions remain subjective. This study used artificial intelligence (AI), specifically natural language processing (NLP) to analyse electronic health records (EHRs) and predict ITU admissions for elective surgery patients. Methods: This study analysed the EHRs of elective neurosurgery patients from University College London Hospital (UCLH) using NLP. Patients were categorised into planned high dependency unit (HDU) or ITU admission; unplanned HDU or ITU admission; or ward / overnight recovery (ONR). The Medical Concept Annotation Tool (MedCAT) was used to identify SNOMED-CT concepts within the clinical notes. We then explored the utility of these identified concepts for a range of AI algorithms trained to predict ITU admission. Results: The CogStack-MedCAT NLP model, initially trained on hospital-wide EHRs, underwent two refinements: first with data from patients with Normal Pressure Hydrocephalus (NPH) and then with data from Vestibular Schwannoma (VS) patients, achieving a concept detection F1-score of 0.93. This refined model was then used to extract concepts from EHR notes of 2,268 eligible neurosurgical patients. We integrated the extracted concepts into AI models, including a decision tree model and a neural time-series model. Using the simpler decision tree model, we achieved a recall of 0.87 (CI 0.82 - 0.91) for ITU admissions, reducing the proportion of unplanned ITU cases missed by human experts from 36% to 4%. Conclusion: The NLP model, refined for accuracy, has proven its efficiency in extracting relevant concepts, providing a reliable basis for predictive AI models to use in clinically valid applications.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Longitudinal Assessment of Seasonal Impacts and Depression Associations on Circadian Rhythm Using Multimodal Wearable Sensing

Objective: This study aimed to explore the associations between depression severity and wearable-measured circadian rhythms, accounting for seasonal impacts and quantifying seasonal changes in circadian rhythms.Materials and Methods: Data used in this study came from a large longitudinal mobile health study. Depression severity (measured biweekly using the 8-item Patient Health Questionnaire [PHQ-8]) and behaviors (monitored by Fitbit) were tracked for up to two years. Twelve features were extracted from Fitbit recordings to approximate circadian rhythms. Three nested linear mixed-effects models were employed for each feature: (1) incorporating the PHQ-8 score as an independent variable; (2) adding the season variable; and (3) adding an interaction term between season and the PHQ-8 score. Results: This study analyzed 10,018 PHQ-8 records with Fitbit data from 543 participants. Upon adjusting for seasonal effects, higher PHQ-8 scores were associated with reduced activity, irregular behaviors, and delayed rhythms. Notably, the negative association with daily step counts was stronger in summer and spring than in winter, and the positive association with the onset of the most active continuous 10-hour period was significant only during summer. Furthermore, participants had shorter and later sleep, more activity, and delayed circadian rhythms in summer compared to winter. Discussion and Conclusions: Our findings underscore the significant seasonal impacts on human circadian rhythms and their associations with depression and indicate that wearable-measured circadian rhythms have the potential to be the digital biomarkers of depression.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

Identifying depression-related topics in smartphone-collected free-response speech recordings using an automatic speech recognition system and a deep learning topic model

Language use has been shown to correlate with depression, but large-scale validation is needed. Traditional methods like clinic studies are expensive. So, natural language processing has been employed on social media to predict depression, but limitations remain-lack of validated labels, biased user samples, and no context. Our study identified 29 topics in 3919 smartphone-collected speech recordings from 265 participants using the Whisper tool and BERTopic model. Six topics with a median PHQ-8 greater than or equal to 10 were regarded as risk topics for depression: No Expectations, Sleep, Mental Therapy, Haircut, Studying, and Coursework. To elucidate the topic emergence and associations with depression, we compared behavioral (from wearables) and linguistic characteristics across identified topics. The correlation between topic shifts and changes in depression severity over time was also investigated, indicating the importance of longitudinally monitoring language use. We also tested the BERTopic model on a similar smaller dataset (356 speech recordings from 57 participants), obtaining some consistent results. In summary, our findings demonstrate specific speech topics may indicate depression severity. The presented data-driven workflow provides a practical approach to collecting and analyzing large-scale speech data from real-world settings for digital health research.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Disease Insight through Digital Biomarkers Developed by Remotely Collected Wearables and Smartphone Data

Digital Biomarkers and remote patient monitoring can provide valuable and timely insights into how a patient is coping with their condition (disease progression, treatment response, etc.), complementing treatment in traditional healthcare settings.Smartphones with embedded and connected sensors have immense potential for improving healthcare through various apps and mHealth (mobile health) platforms. This capability could enable the development of reliable digital biomarkers from long-term longitudinal data collected remotely from patients. We built an open-source platform, RADAR-base, to support large-scale data collection in remote monitoring studies. RADAR-base is a modern remote data collection platform built around Confluent's Apache Kafka, to support scalability, extensibility, security, privacy and quality of data. It provides support for study design and set-up, active (eg PROMs) and passive (eg. phone sensors, wearable devices and IoT) remote data collection capabilities with feature generation (eg. behavioural, environmental and physiological markers). The backend enables secure data transmission, and scalable solutions for data storage, management and data access. The platform has successfully collected longitudinal data for various cohorts in a number of disease areas including Multiple Sclerosis, Depression, Epilepsy, ADHD, Alzheimer, Autism and Lung diseases. Digital biomarkers developed through collected data are providing useful insights into different diseases. RADAR-base provides a modern open-source, community-driven solution for remote monitoring, data collection, and digital phenotyping of physical and mental health diseases. Clinicians can use digital biomarkers to augment their decision making for the prevention, personalisation and early intervention of disease.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

Predicting Clinical Intent from Free Text Electronic Health Records

After a patient consultation, a clinician determines the steps in the management of the patient. A clinician may for example request to see the patient again or refer them to a specialist. Whilst most clinicians will record their intent as "next steps" in the patient's clinical notes, in some cases the clinician may forget to indicate their intent as an order or request, e.g. failure to place the follow-up order. This consequently results in patients becoming lost-to-follow up and may in some cases lead to adverse consequences. In this paper we train a machine learning model to detect a clinician's intent to follow up with a patient from the patient's clinical notes. Annotators systematically identified 22 possible types of clinical intent and annotated 3000 Bariatric clinical notes. The annotation process revealed a class imbalance in the labeled data and we found that there was only sufficient labeled data to train 11 out of the 22 intents. We used the data to train a BERT based multilabel classification model and reported the following average accuracy metrics for all intents: macro-precision: 0.91, macro-recall: 0.90, macro-f1: 0.90.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2022

Associations between depression symptom severity and daily-life gait characteristics derived from long-term acceleration signals in real-world settings

Gait is an essential manifestation of depression. Laboratory gait characteristics have been found to be closely associated with depression. However, the gait characteristics of daily walking in real-world scenarios and their relationships with depression are yet to be fully explored. This study aimed to explore associations between depression symptom severity and daily-life gait characteristics derived from acceleration signals in real-world settings. In this study, we used two ambulatory datasets: a public dataset with 71 elder adults' 3-day acceleration signals collected by a wearable device, and a subset of an EU longitudinal depression study with 215 participants and their phone-collected acceleration signals (average 463 hours per participant). We detected participants' gait cycles and force from acceleration signals and extracted 20 statistics-based daily-life gait features to describe the distribution and variance of gait cadence and force over a long-term period corresponding to the self-reported depression score. The gait cadence of faster steps (75th percentile) over a long-term period has a significant negative association with the depression symptom severity of this period in both datasets. Daily-life gait features could significantly improve the goodness of fit of evaluating depression severity relative to laboratory gait patterns and demographics, which was assessed by likelihood-ratio tests in both datasets. This study indicated that the significant links between daily-life walking characteristics and depression symptom severity could be captured by both wearable devices and mobile phones. The gait cadence of faster steps in daily-life walking has the potential to be a biomarker for evaluating depression severity, which may contribute to clinical tools to remotely monitor mental health in real-world settings.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2021

The utility of wearable devices in assessing ambulatory impairments of people with multiple sclerosis in free-living conditions

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a progressive inflammatory and neurodegenerative disease of the central nervous system affecting over 2.5 million people globally. In-clinic six-minute walk test (6MWT) is a widely used objective measure to evaluate the progression of MS. Yet, it has limitations such as the need for a clinical visit and a proper walkway. The widespread use of wearable devices capable of depicting patients activity profiles has the potential to assess the level of MS-induced disability in free-living conditions. In this work, we extracted 96 activity features in different temporal granularities (from minute-level to day-level) and explored their utility in estimating 6MWT scores in a European (Italy, Spain, and Denmark) MS cohort of 337 participants over an average of 10-month duration. We combined these features with participant demographics using three regression models including elastic net, gradient boosted trees and random forest. In addition, we quantified the individual feature contribution using feature importance in these regression models, linear mixed-effects models, generalized estimating equations, and correlation-based feature selection (CFS). The results showed promising estimation performance with R2 of 0.30, which was derived using random forest after CFS. This model was able to distinguish the participants with low disability from those with high disability. Furthermore, we observed that the minute-level (no longer than 8 minutes) step count, particularly those capturing the upper end of the step count distribution, had a stronger association with 6MWT. The use of a walking aid was indicative of ambulatory function measured through 6MWT. This study provides a basis for future investigation into the clinical relevance and utility of wearables in assessing MS progression in free-living conditions.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2021

Estimating Redundancy in Clinical Text

The current mode of use of Electronic Health Record (EHR) elicits text redundancy. Clinicians often populate new documents by duplicating existing notes, then updating accordingly. Data duplication can lead to a propagation of errors, inconsistencies and misreporting of care. Therefore, quantifying information redundancy can play an essential role in evaluating innovations that operate on clinical narratives. This work is a quantitative examination of information redundancy in EHR notes. We present and evaluate two strategies to measure redundancy: an information-theoretic approach and a lexicosyntactic and semantic model. We evaluate the measures by training large Transformer-based language models using clinical text from a large openly available US-based ICU dataset and a large multi-site UK based Trust. By comparing the information-theoretic content of the trained models with open-domain language models, the language models trained using clinical text have shown ~1.5x to ~3x less efficient than open-domain corpora. Manual evaluation shows a high correlation with lexicosyntactic and semantic redundancy, with averages ~43 to ~65%.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2021

A Knowledge Distillation Ensemble Framework for Predicting Short and Long-term Hospitalisation Outcomes from Electronic Health Records Data

The ability to perform accurate prognosis of patients is crucial for proactive clinical decision making, informed resource management and personalised care. Existing outcome prediction models suffer from a low recall of infrequent positive outcomes. We present a highly-scalable and robust machine learning framework to automatically predict adversity represented by mortality and ICU admission from time-series vital signs and laboratory results obtained within the first 24 hours of hospital admission. The stacked platform comprises two components: a) an unsupervised LSTM Autoencoder that learns an optimal representation of the time-series, using it to differentiate the less frequent patterns which conclude with an adverse event from the majority patterns that do not, and b) a gradient boosting model, which relies on the constructed representation to refine prediction, incorporating static features of demographics, admission details and clinical summaries. The model is used to assess a patient's risk of adversity over time and provides visual justifications of its prediction based on the patient's static features and dynamic signals. Results of three case studies for predicting mortality and ICU admission show that the model outperforms all existing outcome prediction models, achieving PR-AUC of 0.891 (95$%$ CI: 0.878 - 0.969) in predicting mortality in ICU and general ward settings and 0.908 (95$%$ CI: 0.870-0.935) in predicting ICU admission.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Predicting Depressive Symptom Severity through Individuals' Nearby Bluetooth Devices Count Data Collected by Mobile Phones: A Preliminary Longitudinal Study

The Bluetooth sensor embedded in mobile phones provides an unobtrusive, continuous, and cost-efficient means to capture individuals' proximity information, such as the nearby Bluetooth devices count (NBDC). The continuous NBDC data can partially reflect individuals' behaviors and status, such as social connections and interactions, working status, mobility, and social isolation and loneliness, which were found to be significantly associated with depression by previous survey-based studies. This paper aims to explore the NBDC data's value in predicting depressive symptom severity as measured via the 8-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-8). The data used in this paper included 2,886 bi-weekly PHQ-8 records collected from 316 participants recruited from three study sites in the Netherlands, Spain, and the UK as part of the EU RADAR-CNS study. From the NBDC data two weeks prior to each PHQ-8 score, we extracted 49 Bluetooth features, including statistical features and nonlinear features for measuring periodicity and regularity of individuals' life rhythms. Linear mixed-effect models were used to explore associations between Bluetooth features and the PHQ-8 score. We then applied hierarchical Bayesian linear regression models to predict the PHQ-8 score from the extracted Bluetooth features. A number of significant associations were found between Bluetooth features and depressive symptom severity. Compared with commonly used machine learning models, the proposed hierarchical Bayesian linear regression model achieved the best prediction metrics, R2= 0.526, and root mean squared error (RMSE) of 3.891. Bluetooth features can explain an extra 18.8% of the variance in the PHQ-8 score relative to the baseline model without Bluetooth features (R2=0.338, RMSE = 4.547).

stat.ML↗