arXiv subjects

Ritwik Gupta

Publications and source records attributed to Ritwik Gupta.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Tinted Frames: Question Framing Blinds Vision-Language Models

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have been shown to be blind, often underutilizing their visual inputs even on tasks that require visual reasoning. In this work, we demonstrate that VLMs are selectively blind. They modulate the amount of attention applied to visual inputs based on linguistic framing even when alternative framings demand identical visual reasoning. Using visual attention as a probe, we quantify how framing alters both the amount and distribution of attention over the image. Constrained framings, such as multiple choice and yes/no, induce substantially lower attention to image context compared to open-ended, reduce focus on task-relevant regions, and shift attention towards uninformative tokens. We further demonstrate that this attention misallocation is the principal cause of degraded accuracy and cross-framing inconsistency. Building on this mechanistic insight, we introduce a lightweight prompt-tuning method using learnable tokens that encourages the robust, visually grounded attention patterns observed in open-ended settings, improving visual grounding and improving performance across framings.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

TCBench: A Benchmark for Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting at the Global Scale

TCBench is a benchmark for evaluating global, short to medium-range (1-5 days) forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity. To allow a fair and model-agnostic comparison, TCBench builds on the IBTrACS observational dataset and formulates TC forecasting as predicting the time evolution of an existing tropical system conditioned on its initial position and intensity. TCBench includes state-of-the-art physics-based (TIGGE) and Artificial Intelligence Weather Prediction (AIWP) models (AIFS, Pangu-Weather, FourCastNet v2, GenCast, FNV3). If not readily available (e.g., from the NOAA website as is done with TIGGE), TC tracks are consistently derived from model outputs using the TempestExtremes library. TCBench provides deterministic and probabilistic storm-following metrics. On 2023 test cases, AIWP models skillfully forecast TC tracks, while skillful intensity forecasts require additional steps such as post-processing or task-specific training. Designed for accessibility, TCBench helps AI practitioners tackle domain-relevant TC challenges and equips tropical meteorologists with data-driven tools and workflows to improve prediction and TC process understanding. By lowering barriers to reproducible, process-aware evaluation of extreme events, TCBench aims to democratize data-driven TC forecasting.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2026

The LLM Mirage: Economic Interests and the Subversion of Weaponization Controls

U.S. AI security policy is increasingly shaped by an $\textit{LLM Mirage}$, the belief that national security risks scale in proportion to the compute used to train frontier language models. That premise fails in two ways. It miscalibrates strategy because adversaries can obtain weaponizable capabilities with task-specific systems that use specialized data, algorithmic efficiency, and widely available hardware, while compute controls harden only a high-end perimeter. It also destabilizes regulation because, absent a settled definition of "AI weaponization," compute thresholds are easily renegotiated as domestic priorities shift, turning security policy into a proxy contest over industrial competitiveness. We analyze how the LLM Mirage took hold, propose an intent-and-capability definition of AI weaponization grounded in effects and international humanitarian law, and outline measurement infrastructure based on live benchmarks across the full AI Triad (data, algorithms, compute) for weaponization-relevant capabilities.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Crowdsourcing the Frontier: Advancing Hybrid Physics-ML Climate Simulation via a $50,000 Kaggle Competition

Subgrid machine-learning (ML) parameterizations have the potential to introduce a new generation of climate models that incorporate the effects of higher-resolution physics without incurring the prohibitive computational cost associated with more explicit physics-based simulations. However, important issues, ranging from online instability to inconsistent online performance, have limited their operational use for long-term climate projections. To more rapidly drive progress in solving these issues, domain scientists and machine learning researchers opened up the offline aspect of this problem to the broader machine learning and data science community with the release of ClimSim, a NeurIPS Datasets and Benchmarks publication, and an associated Kaggle competition. This paper reports on the downstream results of the Kaggle competition by coupling emulators inspired by the winning teams' architectures to an interactive climate model (including full cloud microphysics, a regime historically prone to online instability) and systematically evaluating their online performance. Our results demonstrate that online stability in the low-resolution, real-geography setting is reproducible across multiple diverse architectures, which we consider a key milestone. All tested architectures exhibit strikingly similar offline and online biases, though their responses to architecture-agnostic design choices (e.g., expanding the list of input variables) can differ significantly. Multiple Kaggle-inspired architectures achieve state-of-the-art (SOTA) results on certain metrics such as zonal mean bias patterns and global RMSE, indicating that crowdsourcing the essence of the offline problem is one path to improving online performance in hybrid physics-AI climate simulation.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

REOrdering Patches Improves Vision Models

Sequence models such as transformers require inputs to be represented as one-dimensional sequences. In vision, this typically involves flattening images using a fixed row-major (raster-scan) order. While full self-attention is permutation-equivariant, modern long-sequence transformers increasingly rely on architectural approximations that break this invariance and introduce sensitivity to patch ordering. We show that patch order significantly affects model performance in such settings, with simple alternatives like column-major or Hilbert curves yielding notable accuracy shifts. Motivated by this, we propose REOrder, a two-stage framework for discovering task-optimal patch orderings. First, we derive an information-theoretic prior by evaluating the compressibility of various patch sequences. Then, we learn a policy over permutations by optimizing a Plackett-Luce policy using REINFORCE. This approach enables efficient learning in a combinatorial permutation space. REOrder improves top-1 accuracy over row-major ordering on ImageNet-1K by up to 3.01% and Functional Map of the World by 13.35%.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

LISAT: Language-Instructed Segmentation Assistant for Satellite Imagery

Segmentation models can recognize a pre-defined set of objects in images. However, models that can reason over complex user queries that implicitly refer to multiple objects of interest are still in their infancy. Recent advances in reasoning segmentation--generating segmentation masks from complex, implicit query text--demonstrate that vision-language models can operate across an open domain and produce reasonable outputs. However, our experiments show that such models struggle with complex remote-sensing imagery. In this work, we introduce LISAt, a vision-language model designed to describe complex remote-sensing scenes, answer questions about them, and segment objects of interest. We trained LISAt on a new curated geospatial reasoning-segmentation dataset, GRES, with 27,615 annotations over 9,205 images, and a multimodal pretraining dataset, PreGRES, containing over 1 million question-answer pairs. LISAt outperforms existing geospatial foundation models such as RS-GPT4V by over 10.04 % (BLEU-4) on remote-sensing description tasks, and surpasses state-of-the-art open-domain models on reasoning segmentation tasks by 143.36 % (gIoU). Our model, datasets, and code are available at https://lisat-bair.github.io/LISAt/

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Enough Coin Flips Can Make LLMs Act Bayesian

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit the ability to generalize given few-shot examples in their input prompt, an emergent capability known as in-context learning (ICL). We investigate whether LLMs use ICL to perform structured reasoning in ways that are consistent with a Bayesian framework or rely on pattern matching. Using a controlled setting of biased coin flips, we find that: (1) LLMs often possess biased priors, causing initial divergence in zero-shot settings, (2) in-context evidence outweighs explicit bias instructions, (3) LLMs broadly follow Bayesian posterior updates, with deviations primarily due to miscalibrated priors rather than flawed updates, and (4) attention magnitude has negligible effect on Bayesian inference. With sufficient demonstrations of biased coin flips via ICL, LLMs update their priors in a Bayesian manner.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Whack-a-Chip: The Futility of Hardware-Centric Export Controls

U.S. export controls on semiconductors are widely known to be permeable, with the People's Republic of China (PRC) steadily creating state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) models with exfiltrated chips. This paper presents the first concrete, public evidence of how leading PRC AI labs evade and circumvent U.S. export controls. We examine how Chinese companies, notably Tencent, are not only using chips that are restricted under U.S. export controls but are also finding ways to circumvent these regulations by using software and modeling techniques that maximize less capable hardware. Specifically, we argue that Tencent's ability to power its Hunyuan-Large model with non-export controlled NVIDIA H20s exemplifies broader gains in efficiency in machine learning that have eroded the moat that the United States initially built via its existing export controls. Finally, we examine the implications of this finding for the future of the United States' export control strategy.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Data-Centric AI Governance: Addressing the Limitations of Model-Focused Policies

Current regulations on powerful AI capabilities are narrowly focused on "foundation" or "frontier" models. However, these terms are vague and inconsistently defined, leading to an unstable foundation for governance efforts. Critically, policy debates often fail to consider the data used with these models, despite the clear link between data and model performance. Even (relatively) "small" models that fall outside the typical definitions of foundation and frontier models can achieve equivalent outcomes when exposed to sufficiently specific datasets. In this work, we illustrate the importance of considering dataset size and content as essential factors in assessing the risks posed by models both today and in the future. More broadly, we emphasize the risk posed by over-regulating reactively and provide a path towards careful, quantitative evaluation of capabilities that can lead to a simplified regulatory environment.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Visual Haystacks: A Vision-Centric Needle-In-A-Haystack Benchmark

Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) have made significant strides in visual question-answering for single images. Recent advancements like long-context LMMs have allowed them to ingest larger, or even multiple, images. However, the ability to process a large number of visual tokens does not guarantee effective retrieval and reasoning for multi-image question answering (MIQA), especially in real-world applications like photo album searches or satellite imagery analysis. In this work, we first assess the limitations of current benchmarks for long-context LMMs. We address these limitations by introducing a new vision-centric, long-context benchmark, "Visual Haystacks (VHs)". We comprehensively evaluate both open-source and proprietary models on VHs, and demonstrate that these models struggle when reasoning across potentially unrelated images, perform poorly on cross-image reasoning, as well as exhibit biases based on the placement of key information within the context window. Towards a solution, we introduce MIRAGE (Multi-Image Retrieval Augmented Generation), an open-source, lightweight visual-RAG framework that processes up to 10k images on a single 40G A100 GPU -- far surpassing the 1k-image limit of contemporary models. MIRAGE demonstrates up to 13% performance improvement over existing open-source LMMs on VHs, sets a new state-of-the-art on the RetVQA multi-image QA benchmark, and achieves competitive performance on single-image QA with state-of-the-art LMMs. Our dataset, model, and code are available at: https://visual-haystacks.github.io.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Open-Source Assessments of AI Capabilities: The Proliferation of AI Analysis Tools, Replicating Competitor Models, and the Zhousidun Dataset

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into military capabilities has become a norm for major military power across the globe. Understanding how these AI models operate is essential for maintaining strategic advantages and ensuring security. This paper demonstrates an open-source methodology for analyzing military AI models through a detailed examination of the Zhousidun dataset, a Chinese-originated dataset that exhaustively labels critical components on American and Allied destroyers. By demonstrating the replication of a state-of-the-art computer vision model on this dataset, we illustrate how open-source tools can be leveraged to assess and understand key military AI capabilities. This methodology offers a robust framework for evaluating the performance and potential of AI-enabled military capabilities, thus enhancing the accuracy and reliability of strategic assessments.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

xT: Nested Tokenization for Larger Context in Large Images

Modern computer vision pipelines handle large images in one of two sub-optimal ways: down-sampling or cropping. These two methods incur significant losses in the amount of information and context present in an image. There are many downstream applications in which global context matters as much as high frequency details, such as in real-world satellite imagery; in such cases researchers have to make the uncomfortable choice of which information to discard. We introduce xT, a simple framework for vision transformers which effectively aggregates global context with local details and can model large images end-to-end on contemporary GPUs. We select a set of benchmark datasets across classic vision tasks which accurately reflect a vision model's ability to understand truly large images and incorporate fine details over large scales and assess our method's improvement on them. xT is a streaming, two-stage architecture that adapts existing vision backbones and long sequence language models to effectively model large images without quadratic memory growth. We are able to increase accuracy by up to 8.6% on challenging classification tasks and $F_1$ score by 11.6 on context-dependent segmentation on images as large as 29,000 x 29,000 pixels.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

See, Say, and Segment: Teaching LMMs to Overcome False Premises

Current open-source Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) excel at tasks such as open-vocabulary language grounding and segmentation but can suffer under false premises when queries imply the existence of something that is not actually present in the image. We observe that existing methods that fine-tune an LMM to segment images significantly degrade their ability to reliably determine ("see") if an object is present and to interact naturally with humans ("say"), a form of catastrophic forgetting. In this work, we propose a cascading and joint training approach for LMMs to solve this task, avoiding catastrophic forgetting of previous skills. Our resulting model can "see" by detecting whether objects are present in an image, "say" by telling the user if they are not, proposing alternative queries or correcting semantic errors in the query, and finally "segment" by outputting the mask of the desired objects if they exist. Additionally, we introduce a novel False Premise Correction benchmark dataset, an extension of existing RefCOCO(+/g) referring segmentation datasets (which we call FP-RefCOCO(+/g)). The results show that our method not only detects false premises up to 55% better than existing approaches, but under false premise conditions produces relative cIOU improvements of more than 31% over baselines, and produces natural language feedback judged helpful up to 67% of the time.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

Confidence-Building Measures for Artificial Intelligence: Workshop Proceedings

Foundation models could eventually introduce several pathways for undermining state security: accidents, inadvertent escalation, unintentional conflict, the proliferation of weapons, and the interference with human diplomacy are just a few on a long list. The Confidence-Building Measures for Artificial Intelligence workshop hosted by the Geopolitics Team at OpenAI and the Berkeley Risk and Security Lab at the University of California brought together a multistakeholder group to think through the tools and strategies to mitigate the potential risks introduced by foundation models to international security. Originating in the Cold War, confidence-building measures (CBMs) are actions that reduce hostility, prevent conflict escalation, and improve trust between parties. The flexibility of CBMs make them a key instrument for navigating the rapid changes in the foundation model landscape. Participants identified the following CBMs that directly apply to foundation models and which are further explained in this conference proceedings: 1. crisis hotlines 2. incident sharing 3. model, transparency, and system cards 4. content provenance and watermarks 5. collaborative red teaming and table-top exercises and 6. dataset and evaluation sharing. Because most foundation model developers are non-government entities, many CBMs will need to involve a wider stakeholder community. These measures can be implemented either by AI labs or by relevant government actors.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2023

ClimSim-Online: A Large Multi-scale Dataset and Framework for Hybrid ML-physics Climate Emulation

Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints, leading to inaccuracies in representing critical processes like thunderstorms that occur on the sub-resolution scale. Hybrid methods combining physics with machine learning (ML) offer faster, higher fidelity climate simulations by outsourcing compute-hungry, high-resolution simulations to ML emulators. However, these hybrid ML-physics simulations require domain-specific data and workflows that have been inaccessible to many ML experts. As an extension of the ClimSim dataset (Yu et al., 2024), we present ClimSim-Online, which also includes an end-to-end workflow for developing hybrid ML-physics simulators. The ClimSim dataset includes 5.7 billion pairs of multivariate input/output vectors, capturing the influence of high-resolution, high-fidelity physics on a host climate simulator's macro-scale state. The dataset is global and spans ten years at a high sampling frequency. We provide a cross-platform, containerized pipeline to integrate ML models into operational climate simulators for hybrid testing. We also implement various ML baselines, alongside a hybrid baseline simulator, to highlight the ML challenges of building stable, skillful emulators. The data (https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_high-res) and code (https://leap-stc.github.io/ClimSim and https://github.com/leap-stc/climsim-online) are publicly released to support the development of hybrid ML-physics and high-fidelity climate simulations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Scale-MAE: A Scale-Aware Masked Autoencoder for Multiscale Geospatial Representation Learning

Large, pretrained models are commonly finetuned with imagery that is heavily augmented to mimic different conditions and scales, with the resulting models used for various tasks with imagery from a range of spatial scales. Such models overlook scale-specific information in the data for scale-dependent domains, such as remote sensing. In this paper, we present Scale-MAE, a pretraining method that explicitly learns relationships between data at different, known scales throughout the pretraining process. Scale-MAE pretrains a network by masking an input image at a known input scale, where the area of the Earth covered by the image determines the scale of the ViT positional encoding, not the image resolution. Scale-MAE encodes the masked image with a standard ViT backbone, and then decodes the masked image through a bandpass filter to reconstruct low/high frequency images at lower/higher scales. We find that tasking the network with reconstructing both low/high frequency images leads to robust multiscale representations for remote sensing imagery. Scale-MAE achieves an average of a $2.4 - 5.6\%$ non-parametric kNN classification improvement across eight remote sensing datasets compared to current state-of-the-art and obtains a $0.9$ mIoU to $1.7$ mIoU improvement on the SpaceNet building segmentation transfer task for a range of evaluation scales.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Emerging Technology and Policy Co-Design Considerations for the Safe and Transparent Use of Small Unmanned Aerial Systems

The rapid technological growth observed in the sUAS sector over the past decade has been unprecedented and has left gaps in policies and regulations to adequately provide for a safe and trusted environment in which to operate these devices. The Center for Security in Politics at UC Berkeley, via a two-day workshop, analyzed these gaps by addressing the entire sUAS vertical. From human factors to autonomy, we recommend a series of steps that can be taken by partners in the academic, commercial, and government sectors to reduce policy gaps introduced in the wake of the growth of the sUAS industry.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

SatlasPretrain: A Large-Scale Dataset for Remote Sensing Image Understanding

Remote sensing images are useful for a wide variety of planet monitoring applications, from tracking deforestation to tackling illegal fishing. The Earth is extremely diverse -- the amount of potential tasks in remote sensing images is massive, and the sizes of features range from several kilometers to just tens of centimeters. However, creating generalizable computer vision methods is a challenge in part due to the lack of a large-scale dataset that captures these diverse features for many tasks. In this paper, we present SatlasPretrain, a remote sensing dataset that is large in both breadth and scale, combining Sentinel-2 and NAIP images with 302M labels under 137 categories and seven label types. We evaluate eight baselines and a proposed method on SatlasPretrain, and find that there is substantial room for improvement in addressing research challenges specific to remote sensing, including processing image time series that consist of images from very different types of sensors, and taking advantage of long-range spatial context. Moreover, we find that pre-training on SatlasPretrain substantially improves performance on downstream tasks, increasing average accuracy by 18% over ImageNet and 6% over the next best baseline. The dataset, pre-trained model weights, and code are available at https://satlas-pretrain.allen.ai/.

cs.CV↗