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Robert Shorten

Publications and source records attributed to Robert Shorten.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Shaping of invariant measures of iterated function systems

We study an inverse problem for iterated function systems: given maps $w_1,\dots,w_m$ on a Polish space and a target probability measure $ν$, choose the law $μ$ with which the maps are sampled so that the invariant measure $π_μ$ of the resulting Markov chain is as close as possible to $ν$ in the Wasserstein-1 distance. The minimization runs over the admissible set $A$ of sampling laws for which the chain has a unique invariant measure attracting every initial law; the maps need not be contractions. On bounded state spaces, regions certified by a Doeblin or splitting condition are convex unions of relatively open faces of the simplex, and they exhaust $A$ when the state space is finite; for affine systems with nonnegative matrices $A$ is a spectral sublevel set; in general $A$ is neither open, closed, convex nor connected. Existence of an optimal law reduces to the invariant measures left behind at the missing boundary $\mathrm{cl}(A)\setminus A$: boundary points without invariant measures of finite first moment repel minimizing sequences, which yields existence for all systems of homotheties of $\mathbb R^d$, and for compact state spaces a solution exists for every target if and only if the set of reachable invariant measures is closed; a two-state example shows that existence can fail. A search over a $δ$-net returns an $ε$-optimal law over any region on which $μ\mapstoπ_μ$ is Lipschitz and the chains are uniformly attracting, with explicit constants and, on an interval, an explicit sample size. Under contraction on average, $μ\mapstoπ_μ$ is differentiable, its derivative is injective if and only if the push-forwards $(w_i)_\#π_μ$ are linearly independent, and the objective is weakly convex, so that a projected subgradient method with inexact subgradients converges to near-stationary points.

math.OC↗

Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control with Constant Distance Gaps for Retrofitted Legacy Vehicles

A Constant Distance Gap (CDG) spacing controller for Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) designed to increase the capacity of oversaturated signalized intersections is presented. In a departing platoon of production passenger vehicles, the controller maintains close inter-vehicle distances below 3 m within limited platoon lengths, using one-vehicle-look-ahead (OVLA) communication only. Extensive real-world experiments on heterogeneous, retrofitted legacy production cars demonstrate robust operation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first experimental demonstration of such close distances under this combination of conditions. A CDG policy can substantially increase discharge rates at oversaturated signalized intersections when vehicles preserve their standstill spacing during startup, as shown in our previous simulation study. Because this benefit unfolds only at high penetration rates, it calls for retrofit-capable solutions deployable in existing combustion-dominated fleets. However, practical realization in such fleets remains an open challenge. The proposed MPC-based controller combines a first-order longitudinal prediction model with precise powertrain feedforward employing OEM-specific torque models, without exchanging confidential vehicle parameters. It avoids explicit platoon coordination to minimize air-interface load in dense traffic. To mitigate disturbance amplification and increase feasible platoon length at very small gaps, two controlled spacing-relaxation strategies are compared: (i) a micro-time-gap policy near the theoretical string-stability bound, and (ii) an acceleration-dependent spacing relaxation based on a virtual mass-spring-damper model. We introduce the Desired Acceleration Overshoot (DAO), a time-domain metric relating local actuator-demand amplification to achievable platoon length.

eess.SY↗

Identifying the Predictable Drift of a Semimartingale from Marginal Laws

A special semimartingale admits a unique decomposition $X=X_0+M+A$ into a local martingale $M$ and a predictable finite-variation part $A$. We consider the identification of $A$ when $X$ is observed only through repeated cross-sections. The estimand is then the projection of the sampled predictable compensator onto the observable feature filtration, namely the current state together with whatever randomness is shared across the population, so that at a fixed diffusion coefficient the marginal flow identifies the drift only up to a Markovian projection. If the drift is an affine functional of an observed lag window, the joint problem is a convex quadratic programme whose solution is the pseudo-panel regression of econometrics. Our principal concern is the case, which we believe not to have been treated before, in which the drift is the output of a hidden linear dynamical system whose dynamics are themselves to be identified from the marginals. The joint problem is then a bilinear quadratically constrained programme, which we solve to certified global optimality by spatial branch and bound; with unpenalised state disturbances and a drift basis growing with the grid it is NP-hard already in latent dimension one, by reduction from $\ell^1$ rank-one matrix approximation, whereas the complexity of the deterministic system at fixed latent dimension remains open. A block-coordinate decomposition offers a cheaper alternative. For the estimator itself, we obtain rates at a fixed mesh, separated into Monte-Carlo, estimation and grid contributions.

math.ST↗

Drift-admissibility via Optimal Transport

We introduce structure-aware optimal transport diagnostics for assessing whether empirical time-series dynamics are compatible with a prescribed predictable-drift class. Our approach translates a pathwise property of stochastic processes into a finite-dimensional projection problem over empirical transition laws, encoding admissibility as row-wise moment constraints on local couplings and quantifying deviations via a Kullback--Leibler projection gap $G_{λ,k}$. This yields both a principled diagnostic and a scalable Bregman--Dykstra algorithm that retains the efficiency of Sinkhorn-type methods while incorporating structural constraints. Calibrated against a Brownian reference null, $G_{λ,k}$ separates process classes that are indistinguishable by second-order statistics alone---including fractional Brownian motion and BSS processes sharing identical Hurst indices---without asymptotic resampling or continuous-time recovery. This positions the method as a general tool for structure-aware model validation of sequential data.

stat.ML↗

Sinkhorn-Knopp balancing with generalised martingale-type constraints

We consider the problem of optimally distributing resources from a set of suppliers to a set of consumers in the presence of general transportation constraints, and including heterogeneous flexibility in the marginal constraints. Such problems frequently arise in a variety of practical settings; for example, in the context of sharing economy applications, where one is not only interested in the transportation plan, but also its realisation, and in other problems that involve the study of martingales. Our principal contribution in this paper is to consider a generalisation of the classic entropically regularised Optimal Transport formulation in which such problems can be solved with a Sinkhorn algorithm. In particular, we present provably convergent Sinkhorn-like algorithms for solving this class of problems, and provide examples to both illustrate the utility of our approach as well as its efficacy.

math.OC↗

Online Learning with Multiple Fairness Regularizers via Graph-Structured Feedback

There is an increasing need to enforce multiple, often competing, measures of fairness within automated decision systems. The appropriate weighting of these fairness objectives is typically unknown a priori, may change over time and, in our setting, must be learned adaptively through sequential interactions. In this work, we address this challenge in a bandit setting, where decisions are made with graph-structured feedback.

cs.LG↗

Robust Dynamic Pricing and Admission Control with Fairness Guarantees

Dynamic pricing is commonly used to regulate congestion in shared service systems. This paper is motivated by the fact that in the presence of users with varying price sensitivity (responsiveness), conventional monotonic pricing can lead to unfair outcomes by disproportionately excluding price-elastic users, particularly under high or uncertain demand. We therefore develop a fairness-oriented mechanism under demand uncertainty. The paper's contributions are twofold. First, we show that when fairness is imposed as a hard state constraint, the optimal (revenue maximizing) pricing policy is generally non-monotonic in demand. This structural result departs fundamentally from standard surge pricing rules and reveals that price reduction under heavy load may be necessary to maintain equitable access. Second, we address the problem that price elasticity among heterogeneous users is unobservable. To solve it, we develop a robust dynamic pricing and admission control framework that enforces capacity and fairness constraints for all user type distributions consistent with aggregate measurements. By integrating integral High Order Control Barrier Functions (iHOCBFs) with a robust optimization framework under uncertain user-type distribution, we obtain a controller that guarantees forward invariance of safety and fairness constraints while optimizing revenue. Numerical experiments demonstrate improved fairness and revenue performance relative to monotonic surge pricing policies.

eess.SY↗

Learning Network Dismantling Without Handcrafted Inputs

The application of message-passing Graph Neural Networks has been a breakthrough for important network science problems. However, the competitive performance often relies on using handcrafted structural features as inputs, which increases computational cost and introduces bias into the otherwise purely data-driven network representations. Here, we eliminate the need for handcrafted features by introducing an attention mechanism and utilizing message-iteration profiles, in addition to an effective algorithmic approach to generate a structurally diverse training set of small synthetic networks. Thereby, we build an expressive message-passing framework and use it to efficiently solve the NP-hard problem of Network Dismantling, virtually equivalent to vital node identification, with significant real-world applications. Trained solely on diversified synthetic networks, our proposed model -- MIND: Message Iteration Network Dismantler -- generalizes to large, unseen real networks with millions of nodes, outperforming state-of-the-art network dismantling methods. Increased efficiency and generalizability of the proposed model can be leveraged beyond dismantling in a range of complex network problems.

cs.LG↗

Smart nudging for efficient routing through networks

In this paper, we formulate the design of efficient digitalised deposit return schemes as a control problem. We focus on the recycling of paper cups, though the proposed methodology applies more broadly to reverse logistics systems arising in circular economy R-strategies. Each item is assumed to carry a digital wallet through which monetary rewards are allocated to actors transferring the item across successive stages, incentivising completion of the recycling process. System efficiency is ensured by: (i) decentralised algorithms that avoid congestion at individual nodes; (ii) a decentralised AIMD-based algorithm that optimally splits the deposit across layers; and (iii) a feedback control loop that dynamically adjusts the deposit to achieve a desired throughput. The effectiveness of the framework is demonstrated through extensive simulations using realistic paper cup recycling data.

eess.SY↗

A Fair, Flexible, Zero-Waste Digital Electricity Market: A First-Principles Approach Combining Automatic Market Making, Holarchic Architectures and Shapley Theory

This thesis presents a fundamental rethink of electricity market design at the wholesale and balancing layers. Rather than treating markets as static spot clearing mechanisms, it reframes them as a continuously online, event driven dynamical control system: a two sided marketplace operating directly on grid physics. Existing energy only, capacity augmented, and zonal market designs are shown to admit no shock robust Nash equilibrium under realistic uncertainty, instead relying on price caps, uplift, and regulatory intervention to preserve solvency and security. In response, the thesis develops a holarchic Automatic Market Maker (AMM) in which prices are bounded, exogenous control signals derived from physical tightness rather than emergent equilibrium outcomes. The AMM generalises nodal and zonal pricing through nested scarcity layers, from node to cluster to zone to region to system, such that participant facing prices inherit from the tightest binding constraint. Nodal and zonal pricing therefore emerge as special cases of a unified scarcity propagation rule. Beyond pricing, the AMM functions as a scarcity aware control system and a digitally enforceable rulebook for fair access and proportional allocation under shortage. Fuel costs are recovered through pay as bid energy dispatch consistent with merit order, while non fuel operating and capital costs are allocated according to adequacy, flexibility, and locational contribution. Large scale simulations demonstrate bounded input bounded output stability, controllable procurement costs, zero structural waste, and improved distributional outcomes. The architecture is climate aligned and policy configurable, but requires a managed transition and new operational tools for system operators and market participants.

eess.SY↗

Levelised Cost of Demand Response: Estimating the Cost-Competitiveness of Flexible Demand

To make well-informed investment decisions, energy system stakeholders require reliable cost frameworks for demand response (DR) and storage technologies. While the levelised cost of storage (LCOS) permits comprehensive cost comparisons between different storage technologies, no generic cost measure for the comparison of different DR schemes exists. This paper introduces the levelised cost of demand response (LCODR) which is an analogous measure to the LCOS but crucially differs from it by considering consumer reward payments. Additionally, the value factor from cost estimations of variable renewable energy is adapted to account for the variable availability of DR. The LCODRs for four direct load control (DLC) schemes and twelve storage applications are estimated and contrasted against LCOS literature values for the most competitive storage technologies. The DLC schemes are vehicle-to-grid, smart charging, smart heat pumps, and heat pumps with thermal storage. The results show that only heat pumps with thermal storage consistently outcompete storage technologies with EV-based DR schemes being competitive for some applications. The results and the underlying methodology offer a tool for energy system stakeholders to assess the competitiveness of DR schemes even with limited user data.

eess.SY↗

Stochastic Sample Approximations of (Local) Moduli of Continuity

Modulus of local continuity is used to evaluate the robustness of neural networks and fairness of their repeated uses in closed-loop models. Here, we revisit a connection between generalized derivatives and moduli of local continuity, and present a non-uniform stochastic sample approximation for moduli of local continuity. This is of importance in studying robustness of neural networks and fairness of their repeated uses.

cs.LG↗

Momentum-Based Access and Speed Control for Improved Safety in Heterogeneous Road Networks

The increasing variety of means of transportation, including light vehicles like e-scooters and e-bikes, together with the increasing weight of conventional vehicles due to electrification and consumer preferences for SUVs, are raising serious concerns regarding the safety of road networks. In this paper we design a two-level control algorithm to improve the safety of heterogeneous networks: first, an access control strategy decreases the heterogeneity of the network depending on actual traffic conditions; then, a speed control strategy mitigates the probability of serious injuries in potential collisions. Both control strategies are designed based on momentum considerations, as this is regarded as the most influential variable to assess injury risk. The road network mobility simulator SUMO is adopted to implement and validate our proposed control strategies.

eess.SY↗

Embracing Fairness in Consumer Electricity Markets using an Automatic Market Maker

As consumer flexibility becomes expected, it is important that the market mechanisms which attain that flexibility are perceived as fair. We set out fairness issues in energy markets today, and propose a market design to address them. Consumption is categorised as either essential or flexible with different prices and reliability levels for each. Prices are generated by an Automatic Market Maker (AMM) based on instantaneous scarcity and resource is allocated using a novel Fair Play algorithm. We empirically show the performance of the system over 1 year for 101 UK households and benchmark its performance against more classical approaches.

eess.SY↗

humancompatible.interconnect: Testing Properties of Repeated Uses of Interconnections of AI Systems

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems often interact with multiple agents. The regulation of such AI systems often requires that {\em a priori\/} guarantees of fairness and robustness be satisfied. With stochastic models of agents' responses to the outputs of AI systems, such {\em a priori\/} guarantees require non-trivial reasoning about the corresponding stochastic systems. Here, we present an open-source PyTorch-based toolkit for the use of stochastic control techniques in modelling interconnections of AI systems and properties of their repeated uses. It models robustness and fairness desiderata in a closed-loop fashion, and provides {\em a priori\/} guarantees for these interconnections. The PyTorch-based toolkit removes much of the complexity associated with the provision of fairness guarantees for closed-loop models of multi-agent systems.

cs.AI↗

A Feedback Control Framework for Incentivised Suburban Parking Utilisation and Urban Core Traffic Relief

Urban traffic congestion, exacerbated by inefficient parking management and cruising for parking, significantly hampers mobility and sustainability in smart cities. Drivers often face delays searching for parking spaces, influenced by factors such as accessibility, cost, distance, and available services such as charging facilities in the case of electric vehicles. These inefficiencies contribute to increased urban congestion, fuel consumption, and environmental impact. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a feedback control incentivisation-based system that aims to better distribute vehicles between city and suburban parking facilities offering park-and-charge/-ride services. Individual driver behaviours are captured via discrete choice models incorporating factors of importance to parking location choice among drivers, such as distance to work, public transport connectivity, charging infrastructure availability, and amount of incentive offered; and are regulated through principles of ergodic control theory. The proposed framework is applied to an electric vehicle park-and-charge/-ride problem, and demonstrates how predictable long-term behaviour of the system can be guaranteed.

eess.SY↗

Predictive Control of EV Overnight Charging with Multi-Session Flexibility

The majority of electric vehicles (EVs) are charged domestically overnight, where the precise timing of power allocation is not important to the user, thus representing a source of flexibility that can be leveraged by charging control algorithms. In this paper, we relax the common assumption, that EVs require full charge every morning, enabling additional flexibility to defer charging of surplus energy to subsequent nights, which can enhance the performance of controlled charging. In particular, we consider a simple domestic smart plug, scheduling power delivery with the objective to minimize CO$_2$ emissions over prediction horizons of multiple sessions -- up to seven days ahead -- utilising model predictive control (MPC). Based on carbon intensity data from the UK National Grid, we demonstrate significant potential for emission reductions with multi-session planning of 40 to 46\% compared to uncontrolled charging and 19 to 26\% compared to single-session planning. Furthermore, we assess, how the driving and charging behaviour of EV users affects the available flexibility and consequentially the potential for emission reductions. Finally, using grid carbon intensity data from 14 different UK regions, we report significant variations in absolute emission reductions based on the local energy mix.

eess.SY↗

Randomized Transport Plans via Hierarchical Fully Probabilistic Design

An optimal randomized strategy for design of balanced, normalized mass transport plans is developed. It replaces -- but specializes to -- the deterministic, regularized optimal transport (OT) strategy, which yields only a certainty-equivalent plan. The incompletely specified -- and therefore uncertain -- transport plan is acknowledged to be a random process. Therefore, hierarchical fully probabilistic design (HFPD) is adopted, yielding an optimal hyperprior supported on the set of possible transport plans, and consistent with prior mean constraints on the marginals of the uncertain plan. This Bayesian resetting of the design problem for transport plans -- which we call HFPD-OT -- confers new opportunities. These include (i) a strategy for the generation of a random sample of joint transport plans; (ii) randomized marginal contracts for individual source-target pairs; and (iii) consistent measures of uncertainty in the plan and its contracts. An application in fair market matching is outlined, in which HFPD-OT enables the recruitment of a more diverse subset of contracts -- than is possible in classical OT -- into the delivery of an expected plan.

eess.SY↗