arXiv subjects

Rolf Stadler

Publications and source records attributed to Rolf Stadler.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Learning Intrusion Response Strategies for OT Systems

Cyberattacks against Operational Technology (OT) systems, which monitor and control industrial processes, pose an increasing threat to essential societal services. For this reason, developing automated intrusion response strategies is highly important. In this paper, we present a formal model of an OT intrusion response use case using the POMDP framework. It includes a realistic model of partial observability that is based on traffic measurements. This approach allows us to develop tractable, learning-based solution methods for automated intrusion response, which are based on PPO. We evaluate the obtained response strategies on an emulated OT system and find that they are effective against several types of MITRE attacks for the studied use case.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2025

A Modular Framework for Rapidly Building Intrusion Predictors

We study automated intrusion prediction in an IT system using statistical learning methods. The focus is on developing online attack predictors that detect attacks in real time and identify the current stage of the attack. While such predictors have been proposed in the recent literature, these works typically rely on constructing a monolithic predictor tailored to a specific attack type and scenario. Given that hundreds of attack types are cataloged in the MITRE framework, training a separate monolithic predictor for each of them is infeasible. In this paper, we propose a modular framework for rapidly assembling online attack predictors from reusable components. The modular nature of a predictor facilitates controlling key metrics like timeliness and accuracy of prediction, as well as tuning the trade-off between them. Using public datasets for training and evaluation, we provide many examples of modular predictors and show how an effective predictor can be dynamically assembled during training from a network of modular components.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Learning Optimal Defender Strategies for CAGE-2 using a POMDP Model

CAGE-2 is an accepted benchmark for learning and evaluating defender strategies against cyberattacks. It reflects a scenario where a defender agent protects an IT infrastructure against various attacks. Many defender methods for CAGE-2 have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, we construct a formal model for CAGE-2 using the framework of Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). Based on this model, we define an optimal defender strategy for CAGE-2 and introduce a method to efficiently learn this strategy. Our method, called BF-PPO, is based on PPO, and it uses particle filter to mitigate the computational complexity due to the large state space of the CAGE-2 model. We evaluate our method in the CAGE-2 CybORG environment and compare its performance with that of CARDIFF, the highest ranked method on the CAGE-2 leaderboard. We find that our method outperforms CARDIFF regarding the learned defender strategy and the required training time.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Online Identification of IT Systems through Active Causal Learning

Identifying a causal model of an IT system is fundamental to many branches of systems engineering and operation. Such a model can be used to predict the effects of control actions, optimize operations, diagnose failures, detect intrusions, etc., which is central to achieving the longstanding goal of automating network and system management tasks. Traditionally, causal models have been designed and maintained by domain experts. This, however, proves increasingly challenging with the growing complexity and dynamism of modern IT systems. In this paper, we present the first principled method for online, data-driven identification of an IT system in the form of a causal model. The method, which we call active causal learning, estimates causal functions that capture the dependencies among system variables in an iterative fashion using Gaussian process regression based on system measurements, which are collected through a rollout-based intervention policy. We prove that this method is optimal in the Bayesian sense and that it produces effective interventions. Experimental validation on a testbed shows that our method enables accurate identification of a causal system model while inducing low interference with system operations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Automated Security Response through Online Learning with Adaptive Conjectures

We study automated security response for an IT infrastructure and formulate the interaction between an attacker and a defender as a partially observed, non-stationary game. We relax the standard assumption that the game model is correctly specified and consider that each player has a probabilistic conjecture about the model, which may be misspecified in the sense that the true model has probability 0. This formulation allows us to capture uncertainty and misconception about the infrastructure and the intents of the players. To learn effective game strategies online, we design Conjectural Online Learning (COL), a novel method where a player iteratively adapts its conjecture using Bayesian learning and updates its strategy through rollout. We prove that the conjectures converge to best fits, and we provide a bound on the performance improvement that rollout enables with a conjectured model. To characterize the steady state of the game, we propose a variant of the Berk-Nash equilibrium. We present COL through an advanced persistent threat use case. Testbed evaluations show that COL produces effective security strategies that adapt to a changing environment. We also find that COL enables faster convergence than current reinforcement learning techniques.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Conjectural Online Learning with First-order Beliefs in Asymmetric Information Stochastic Games

Asymmetric information stochastic games (AISGs) arise in many complex socio-technical systems, such as cyber-physical systems and IT infrastructures. Existing computational methods for AISGs are primarily offline and can not adapt to equilibrium deviations. Further, current methods are limited to particular information structures to avoid belief hierarchies. Considering these limitations, we propose conjectural online learning (COL), an online learning method under generic information structures in AISGs. COL uses a forecaster-actor-critic (FAC) architecture, where subjective forecasts are used to conjecture the opponents' strategies within a lookahead horizon, and Bayesian learning is used to calibrate the conjectures. To adapt strategies to nonstationary environments based on information feedback, COL uses online rollout with cost function approximation (actor-critic). We prove that the conjectures produced by COL are asymptotically consistent with the information feedback in the sense of a relaxed Bayesian consistency. We also prove that the empirical strategy profile induced by COL converges to the Berk-Nash equilibrium, a solution concept characterizing rationality under subjectivity. Experimental results from an intrusion response use case demonstrate COL's {faster convergence} over state-of-the-art reinforcement learning methods against nonstationary attacks.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Optimal Defender Strategies for CAGE-2 using Causal Modeling and Tree Search

The CAGE-2 challenge is considered a standard benchmark to compare methods for autonomous cyber defense. Current state-of-the-art methods evaluated against this benchmark are based on model-free (offline) reinforcement learning, which does not provide provably optimal defender strategies. We address this limitation and present a formal (causal) model of CAGE-2 together with a method that produces a provably optimal defender strategy, which we call Causal Partially Observable Monte-Carlo Planning (C-POMCP). It has two key properties. First, it incorporates the causal structure of the target system, i.e., the causal relationships among the system variables. This structure allows for a significant reduction of the search space of defender strategies. Second, it is an online method that updates the defender strategy at each time step via tree search. Evaluations against the CAGE-2 benchmark show that C-POMCP achieves state-of-the-art performance with respect to effectiveness and is two orders of magnitude more efficient in computing time than the closest competitor method.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Intrusion Tolerance for Networked Systems through Two-Level Feedback Control

We formulate intrusion tolerance for a system with service replicas as a two-level optimal control problem. On the local level node controllers perform intrusion recovery, and on the global level a system controller manages the replication factor. The local and global control problems can be formulated as classical problems in operations research, namely, the machine replacement problem and the inventory replenishment problem. Based on this formulation, we design TOLERANCE, a novel control architecture for intrusion-tolerant systems. We prove that the optimal control strategies on both levels have threshold structure and design efficient algorithms for computing them. We implement and evaluate TOLERANCE in an emulation environment where we run 10 types of network intrusions. The results show that TOLERANCE can improve service availability and reduce operational cost compared with state-of-the-art intrusion-tolerant systems.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2024

IT Intrusion Detection Using Statistical Learning and Testbed Measurements

We study automated intrusion detection in an IT infrastructure, specifically the problem of identifying the start of an attack, the type of attack, and the sequence of actions an attacker takes, based on continuous measurements from the infrastructure. We apply statistical learning methods, including Hidden Markov Model (HMM), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Random Forest Classifier (RFC) to map sequences of observations to sequences of predicted attack actions. In contrast to most related research, we have abundant data to train the models and evaluate their predictive power. The data comes from traces we generate on an in-house testbed where we run attacks against an emulated IT infrastructure. Central to our work is a machine-learning pipeline that maps measurements from a high-dimensional observation space to a space of low dimensionality or to a small set of observation symbols. Investigating intrusions in offline as well as online scenarios, we find that both HMM and LSTM can be effective in predicting attack start time, attack type, and attack actions. If sufficient training data is available, LSTM achieves higher prediction accuracy than HMM. HMM, on the other hand, requires less computational resources and less training data for effective prediction. Also, we find that the methods we study benefit from data produced by traditional intrusion detection systems like SNORT.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Scalable Learning of Intrusion Responses through Recursive Decomposition

We study automated intrusion response for an IT infrastructure and formulate the interaction between an attacker and a defender as a partially observed stochastic game. To solve the game we follow an approach where attack and defense strategies co-evolve through reinforcement learning and self-play toward an equilibrium. Solutions proposed in previous work prove the feasibility of this approach for small infrastructures but do not scale to realistic scenarios due to the exponential growth in computational complexity with the infrastructure size. We address this problem by introducing a method that recursively decomposes the game into subgames which can be solved in parallel. Applying optimal stopping theory we show that the best response strategies in these subgames exhibit threshold structures, which allows us to compute them efficiently. To solve the decomposed game we introduce an algorithm called Decompositional Fictitious Self-Play (DFSP), which learns Nash equilibria through stochastic approximation. We evaluate the learned strategies in an emulation environment where real intrusions and response actions can be executed. The results show that the learned strategies approximate an equilibrium and that DFSP significantly outperforms a state-of-the-art algorithm for a realistic infrastructure configuration.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

A Framework for dynamically meeting performance objectives on a service mesh

We present a framework for achieving end-to-end management objectives for multiple services that concurrently execute on a service mesh. We apply reinforcement learning (RL) techniques to train an agent that periodically performs control actions to reallocate resources. We develop and evaluate the framework using a laboratory testbed where we run information and computing services on a service mesh, supported by the Istio and Kubernetes platforms. We investigate different management objectives that include end-to-end delay bounds on service requests, throughput objectives, cost-related objectives, and service differentiation. We compute the control policies on a simulator rather than on the testbed, which speeds up the training time by orders of magnitude for the scenarios we study. Our proposed framework is novel in that it advocates a top-down approach whereby the management objectives are defined first and then mapped onto the available control actions. It allows us to execute several types of control actions simultaneously. By first learning the system model and the operating region from testbed traces, we can train the agent for different management objectives in parallel.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

Learning Near-Optimal Intrusion Responses Against Dynamic Attackers

We study automated intrusion response and formulate the interaction between an attacker and a defender as an optimal stopping game where attack and defense strategies evolve through reinforcement learning and self-play. The game-theoretic modeling enables us to find defender strategies that are effective against a dynamic attacker, i.e. an attacker that adapts its strategy in response to the defender strategy. Further, the optimal stopping formulation allows us to prove that optimal strategies have threshold properties. To obtain near-optimal defender strategies, we develop Threshold Fictitious Self-Play (T-FP), a fictitious self-play algorithm that learns Nash equilibria through stochastic approximation. We show that T-FP outperforms a state-of-the-art algorithm for our use case. The experimental part of this investigation includes two systems: a simulation system where defender strategies are incrementally learned and an emulation system where statistics are collected that drive simulation runs and where learned strategies are evaluated. We argue that this approach can produce effective defender strategies for a practical IT infrastructure.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2022

Dynamically meeting performance objectives for multiple services on a service mesh

We present a framework that lets a service provider achieve end-to-end management objectives under varying load. Dynamic control actions are performed by a reinforcement learning (RL) agent. Our work includes experimentation and evaluation on a laboratory testbed where we have implemented basic information services on a service mesh supported by the Istio and Kubernetes platforms. We investigate different management objectives that include end-to-end delay bounds on service requests, throughput objectives, and service differentiation. These objectives are mapped onto reward functions that an RL agent learns to optimize, by executing control actions, namely, request routing and request blocking. We compute the control policies not on the testbed, but in a simulator, which speeds up the learning process by orders of magnitude. In our approach, the system model is learned on the testbed; it is then used to instantiate the simulator, which produces near-optimal control policies for various management objectives. The learned policies are then evaluated on the testbed using unseen load patterns.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Learning Security Strategies through Game Play and Optimal Stopping

We study automated intrusion prevention using reinforcement learning. Following a novel approach, we formulate the interaction between an attacker and a defender as an optimal stopping game and let attack and defense strategies evolve through reinforcement learning and self-play. The game-theoretic perspective allows us to find defender strategies that are effective against dynamic attackers. The optimal stopping formulation gives us insight into the structure of optimal strategies, which we show to have threshold properties. To obtain the optimal defender strategies, we introduce T-FP, a fictitious self-play algorithm that learns Nash equilibria through stochastic approximation. We show that T-FP outperforms a state-of-the-art algorithm for our use case. Our overall method for learning and evaluating strategies includes two systems: a simulation system where defender strategies are incrementally learned and an emulation system where statistics are produced that drive simulation runs and where learned strategies are evaluated. We conclude that this approach can produce effective defender strategies for a practical IT infrastructure.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

A System for Interactive Examination of Learned Security Policies

We present a system for interactive examination of learned security policies. It allows a user to traverse episodes of Markov decision processes in a controlled manner and to track the actions triggered by security policies. Similar to a software debugger, a user can continue or or halt an episode at any time step and inspect parameters and probability distributions of interest. The system enables insight into the structure of a given policy and in the behavior of a policy in edge cases. We demonstrate the system with a network intrusion use case. We examine the evolution of an IT infrastructure's state and the actions prescribed by security policies while an attack occurs. The policies for the demonstration have been obtained through a reinforcement learning approach that includes a simulation system where policies are incrementally learned and an emulation system that produces statistics that drive the simulation runs.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2022

Intrusion Prevention through Optimal Stopping

We study automated intrusion prevention using reinforcement learning. Following a novel approach, we formulate the problem of intrusion prevention as an (optimal) multiple stopping problem. This formulation gives us insight into the structure of optimal policies, which we show to have threshold properties. For most practical cases, it is not feasible to obtain an optimal defender policy using dynamic programming. We therefore develop a reinforcement learning approach to approximate an optimal threshold policy. We introduce T-SPSA, an efficient reinforcement learning algorithm that learns threshold policies through stochastic approximation. We show that T-SPSA outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms for our use case. Our overall method for learning and validating policies includes two systems: a simulation system where defender policies are incrementally learned and an emulation system where statistics are produced that drive simulation runs and where learned policies are evaluated. We show that this approach can produce effective defender policies for a practical IT infrastructure.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Learning Intrusion Prevention Policies through Optimal Stopping

We study automated intrusion prevention using reinforcement learning. In a novel approach, we formulate the problem of intrusion prevention as an optimal stopping problem. This formulation allows us insight into the structure of the optimal policies, which turn out to be threshold based. Since the computation of the optimal defender policy using dynamic programming is not feasible for practical cases, we approximate the optimal policy through reinforcement learning in a simulation environment. To define the dynamics of the simulation, we emulate the target infrastructure and collect measurements. Our evaluations show that the learned policies are close to optimal and that they indeed can be expressed using thresholds.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2021

Online Feature Selection for Efficient Learning in Networked Systems

Current AI/ML methods for data-driven engineering use models that are mostly trained offline. Such models can be expensive to build in terms of communication and computing cost, and they rely on data that is collected over extended periods of time. Further, they become out-of-date when changes in the system occur. To address these challenges, we investigate online learning techniques that automatically reduce the number of available data sources for model training. We present an online algorithm called Online Stable Feature Set Algorithm (OSFS), which selects a small feature set from a large number of available data sources after receiving a small number of measurements. The algorithm is initialized with a feature ranking algorithm, a feature set stability metric, and a search policy. We perform an extensive experimental evaluation of this algorithm using traces from an in-house testbed and from a data center in operation. We find that OSFS achieves a massive reduction in the size of the feature set by 1-3 orders of magnitude on all investigated datasets. Most importantly, we find that the accuracy of a predictor trained on a OSFS-produced feature set is somewhat better than when the predictor is trained on a feature set obtained through offline feature selection. OSFS is thus shown to be effective as an online feature selection algorithm and robust regarding the sample interval used for feature selection. We also find that, when concept drift in the data underlying the model occurs, its effect can be mitigated by recomputing the feature set and retraining the prediction model.

cs.LG↗