arXiv subjects

Rory Barnes

Publications and source records attributed to Rory Barnes.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Climates of Gl 514 b

The continuous discovery of exoplanets, each with distinctive stellar and planetary properties, along with the development of higher resolution ground and space telescopes has positioned climate evolution as a fundamental component of the study of habitability. In particular, the planet Gl 514 b, located within the habitable zone of an M0.5 dwarf star 7.62 pc from Earth, is a candidate for direct observations with future ground and space-based telescopes and therefore worthy of climate modeling. One notable aspect of this planet is its eccentricity of $e = 0.45^{+0.15}_{-0.14}$, which could affect the seasonal climate by inducing large swings in instellation over the course of an orbit. Hence, we simulate a plausible range of climates on this planet to assess the likelihood that its surface is habitable as well as estimate the surface ice coverage, which could affect the photometric signal. To perform these simulations, we use an energy balance model to explore the parameter space permitted by the observations and the allowed ranges of the obliquity, eccentricity, atmospheric CO$_2$, precession angle, land fraction, and land distribution. We find the planet is most likely to be in either a snowball or ice free state, but about 1.27% of our simulations contain polar ice caps or an ice belt. A partial pressure of CO$_2$ in the range of 7.25-9.5 bar permits the planet's surface to be habitable. These results constrain the orbital, rotational, and physical conditions required for surface habitability of Gl 514 b and will help guide future direct-imaging surveys of this and similar planets.

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arXiv2026

The Range of Cumulative XUV Flux on GJ 1132 b

We investigate the plausible history of the XUV luminosity evolution of the planet-hosting M4 star GJ 1132 (~0.2 solar masses) to infer the cumulative incident XUV flux intercepted by the short-period (~1.6 d) Earth-sized transiting planet GJ 1132 b. We include the dominant observational uncertainties, compare two quiescent XUV luminosity evolution models, and simulate the XUV luminosity evolution from flares based on TESS data and a re-analysis of Kepler stars. We find only 4 flares in GJ 1132's TESS 123 day lightcurve, which is relatively few for M dwarfs and, in conjunction with the ~125 day period, suggests that this star is many Gyr old. We find that all model permutations predict that the planet has at least a 95% chance of receiving more than 50 times as much XUV flux as modern Earth, confirming that this planet is a good candidate for permanent atmospheric loss. We also find that an empirical XUV model for M dwarfs predicts 2-3 times more total XUV flux than a commonly used solar twin model and that the empirical model's distribution is 2-3 times narrower. Flares contribute about 20% of the cumulative XUV flux on planet b, which, while modest, ensures the planet lies firmly on the atmosphere-free side of the "cosmic shoreline."

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arXiv2026

Investigation of Venus' thermal history, crustal evolution, and core dynamics with a coupled interior-lithosphere-atmosphere model

We simulate Venus' evolution with a coupled one-dimensional solar-atmosphere-lithosphere-mantle-core model to predict currently unobservable features and its eruptive mass flux. We identified four distinct evolutionary pathways that simultaneously match the atmospheric abundances of water and carbon dioxide as well as the lack of a core dynamo. These scenarios are characterized by I) generally monotonic cooling, II) a low mantle melt fraction in which Venus' volcanically active phase is ending, III) a small inner core, and IV) oscillations of internal properties. Through random forest classification we determined that the key parameters that distinguish these types are the initial mantle water abundance, the mantle viscosity, the dehydration stiffening strength, the eruption efficiency, and the melting point of the core. In each of the plausible histories, Venus retains at least one Earth ocean's worth of water in its mantle and remains volcanically active today. Venus' lack of a current geodynamo allows thermal histories with an initially large inner core in our parameter sweep. In 88% of plausible histories we found that Venus possessed a past magnetic field. The results strongly disfavor recent high eruption rate estimates, but are consistent with lower estimates. Current resurfacing estimates also strongly disfavor the low melt scenario, implying that Venus is not nearly volcanically ``dead.'' These predictions are testable with anticipated data and the model can be applied to exoplanets to predict their properties.

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arXiv2025

Planetary Habitability Under the Light of a Rapidly Changing Star

Planetary atmospheric energy budgets primarily depend on stellar incident flux. However, stellar variability can have major consequences for the evolution of planetary climates. In this work, we evaluate how stellar variability influences the equilibrium temperature and water retention of planets within the Habitable Zone (HZ). We present a sample of 9 stars that are known to host at least one planet within the HZ and that were identified to have a variability amplitude exceeding 100 ppm based on photometry from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). We investigate the effect that the variability of these stars have on the insolation flux of their HZ planets and the resulting changes in the induced planetary equilibrium temperature. Our results show that for the stars in our sample, the stellar variability has an insignificant effect on the equilibrium temperature of HZ planets. However, we also emphasize that these stars are not representative of more extreme variable stars, since exoplanets are more difficult to detect and characterize in the presence of extreme variability. We also investigate the equilibrium temperature and long-term evolution of a hypothetical Earth-like planet placed at the inner edge of the HZ around a highly variable star. We found that the water loss rates are comparable between both variable and quiet host stars for Earth-like planets in the inner HZ. Overall, these results broaden our knowledge on the impact of stellar variability on planetary habitability.

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arXiv2025

Functionality of Ice Line Latitudinal EBM Tenacity (FILLET). Protocol Version 1.1

The Functionality of Ice Line Latitudinal EBM Tenacity (FILLET) project is a CUISINES exoplanet model intercomparison project (exo-MIP) that compares various energy balance models (EBMs) through a series of numerical experiments. The objective is to establish rigorous protocols that enable the identification of intrinsic differences among EBMs that could lead to model-dependent results for past, current, and future EBM studies. Such efforts also provide the community with an EBM ensemble average and standard deviation, rather than a single model prediction, on benchmark cases typically used by EBM studies. These experiments include Earth-like planets at different obliquity, instellation, and carbon dioxide abundance. Here we update the v1.0 protocol (Deitrick et al., 2023) to accommodate the requirements of previously untested community models. In particular, we expand the range of carbon dioxide abundances for Experiment 4 to ensure any code will capture both snowball and ice-free end states. Additionally, participants are now required to report two ice edge latitudes per hemisphere to fully distinguish all climate states (snowball, ice caps, ice belts, and ice-free). The outputs described in FILLET protocol version 1.0 have also now been revised to include the maximum and minimum ice extent, in latitude, for each hemisphere, as well as the diffusion coefficient and outgoing longwave radiative flux.

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arXiv2025

A Terminology and Quantitative Framework for Assessing the Habitability of Solar System and Extraterrestrial Worlds

The search for extraterrestrial life in the Solar System and beyond is a key science driver in astrobiology, planetary science, and astrophysics. A critical step is the identification and characterization of potential habitats, both to guide the search and to interpret its results. However, a well-accepted, self-consistent, flexible, and quantitative terminology and method of assessment of habitability are lacking. Our paper fills this gap based on a three year-long study by the NExSS Quantitative Habitability Science Working Group. We reviewed past studies of habitability, but find that the lack of a universally valid definition of life prohibits a universally applicable definition of habitability. A more nuanced approach is needed. We introduce a quantitative habitability assessment framework (QHF) that enables self-consistent, probabilistic assessment of the compatibility of two models: First, a habitat model, which describes the probability distributions of key conditions in the habitat. Second, a viability model, which describes the probability that a metabolism is viable given a set of environmental conditions. We provide an open-source implementation of this framework and four examples as a proof of concept: (a) Comparison of two exoplanets for observational target prioritization; (b) Interpretation of atmospheric O2 detection in two exoplanets; (c) Subsurface habitability of Mars; and (d) Ocean habitability in Europa. These examples demonstrate that our framework can self-consistently inform astrobiology research over a broad range of questions. The proposed framework is modular so that future work can expand the range and complexity of models available, both for habitats and for metabolisms.

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arXiv2025

Tidal Synchronization of TESS Eclipsing Binaries

Tidal synchronization plays a fundamental role in the evolution of binary star systems. However, key details such as the timescale of synchronization, efficiency of tidal dissipation, rotational period, and dependence on stellar mass are not well constrained. We present a catalog of rotation periods, orbital periods, and eccentricities from eclipsing binaries (EBs) that can be used to study the role of tides in the rotational evolution of low-mass dwarf (FGKM spectral type) binaries. This study presents the largest catalog of EB orbital and rotational periods (Porb and Prot) measured from the Transiting Exoplanet Satellite Survey (TESS). We first classify 4584 light curves from the TESS Eclipsing Binary Catalog according to out-of-eclipse stellar variability type: starspot modulation, ellipsoidal variability, non-periodic variability, and "other" variability (e.g. pulsations). We then manually validate each light curve classification, resulting in a sample of 1039 candidates with 584 high-confidence EBs that exhibit detectable star-spot modulation. From there, we measure and compare the rotation period of each starspot-modulated EB using three methods: Lomb-Scargle periodograms, autocorrelation function, and phase dispersion minimization. We find that our period distributions are consistent with previous work that used a sample of 816 starspot EBs from Kepler to identify two populations: a synchronous population (with Porb~Prot) and a subsynchronous population (with 8Porb~7Prot). Using Bayesian model comparison, we find that a bimodal distribution is a significantly better fit than a unimodal distribution for Kepler and TESS samples, both individually or combined, confirming that the subsynchronous population is statistically significant.

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arXiv2024

From CO$_2$- to H$_2$O-dominated atmospheres and back -- How mixed outgassing changes the volatile distribution in magma oceans around M dwarf stars

We investigate the impact of CO$_2$ on TRAPPIST-1 e, f and g during the magma ocean stage. These potentially habitable rocky planets are currently the most accessible for astronomical observations. A constraint on the volatile budget during the magma ocean stage is a link to planet formation and also needed to judge their habitability. We perform simulations with 1-100 terrestrial oceans (TO) of H$_2$O with and without CO$_2$ and for albedos 0 and 0.75. The CO$_2$ mass is scaled with initial H$_2$O by a constant factor between 0.1 and 1. The magma ocean state of rocky planets begins with a CO$_2$-dominated atmosphere but can evolve into a H$_2$O dominated state, depending on initial conditions. For less than 10 TO initial H$_2$O, the atmosphere tends to desiccate and the evolution may end with a CO$_2$ dominated atmosphere. Otherwise, the final state is a thick (>1000 bar) H$_2$O-CO$_2$ atmosphere. Complete atmosphere desiccation with less than 10 TO initial H$_2$O can be significantly delayed for TRAPPIST-1e and f, when H$_2$O has to diffuse through a CO$_2$ atmosphere to reach the upper atmosphere, where XUV photolysis occurs. As a consequence of CO$_2$ diffusion-limited water loss, the time of mantle solidification for TRAPPIST-1 e, f, and g can be significantly extended compared to a pure H$_2$O evolution by up to 40 Myrs for albedo 0.75 and by up to 200 Mrys for albedo 0. The addition of CO$_2$ further results in a higher water content in the melt during the magma ocean stage. Our compositional model adjusted for the measured metallicity of TRAPPIST-1 yields for the dry inner planets (b, c, d) an iron fraction of 27 wt-%. For TRAPPIST-1 e, this iron fraction would be compatible with a (partly) desiccated evolution scenario and a CO$_2$ atmosphere with surface pressures of a few 100 bar. A comparative study between TRAPPIST-1 e and the inner planets may yield the most insights about formation and evolution scenarios.

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arXiv2024

History and Habitability of the LP 890-9 Planetary System

We present numerous aspects of the evolution of the LP 890-9 (SPECULOOS-2/TOI-4306) planetary system, focusing on the likelihood that planet c can support life. We find that the host star reaches the main sequence in 1 Gyr and that planet c lies close to the inner boundary of the habitable zone. We find the magma ocean stage can last up to 50 Myr, remove 8 Earth-oceans of water, and leave up to 2000 bars of oxygen in the atmosphere. However, if the planet forms with a hydrogen envelope as small as 0.1 Earth-masses, no water will be lost during the star's pre-main sequence phase from thermal escape processes. We find that the planets are unlikely to be in a 3:1 mean motion resonance and that both planets tidally circularize within 0.5 Gyr when tidal dissipation is held constant. However, if tidal dissipation is a function of mantle temperature and rheology, then we find that planet c's orbit may require more than 7 Gyr to circularize, during which time tidal heating may reach hundreds of terawatts. We thus conclude that the habitability of planet c depends most strongly on the initial volatile content and internal properties, but no data yet preclude the viability of an active biosphere on the planet.

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arXiv2024

Hot Rocks Survey I : A possible shallow eclipse for LHS 1478 b

M dwarf systems offer an opportunity to study terrestrial exoplanetary atmospheres due to their small size and cool temperatures. However, the extreme conditions imposed by these host stars raise question about whether their close-in rocky planets are able to retain any atmosphere at all. The Hot Rocks Survey aims to answer this question by targeting nine different M dwarf rocky planets. Of these, LHS 1478 b orbits an M3-type star, has an equilibrium temperature of T$_{eq}$ = 585 K and receives 21 times Earth's instellation. We observe two secondary eclipses using photometric imaging at 15$\mu$m using the Mid-Infrared Instrument on the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST MIRI) to measure thermal emission from the dayside of the planet. We compare these values to atmospheric models to evaluate potential heat transport and CO$_2$ absorption signatures. We find that a secondary eclipse depth of $138\pm 53$ppm at the expected time for a circular orbit is preferred over a null model at $2.8\sigma$, a moderate detection, though dynamical models do favour a non-eccentric orbit for this planet. The second observation results in a non-detection due to significantly larger unexplained systematics. Based on the first observation alone, we can reject the null hypothesis of the dark (zero Bond albedo) no atmosphere bare rock model with a confidence level of 3.3$\sigma$, though for $A_B=0.2$ the significance decreases to $2.1\sigma$. The tentative secondary eclipse depth is consistent with the majority of atmospheric scenarios we considered, spanning CO$_2$-rich atmospheres with surface pressures from 0.1 to 10 bar. However, we stress that the two observations from our program do not yield consistent results, and more observations are needed to verify our findings. The Hot Rocks Survey serves as a relevant primer for the Director's Discretionary Time (DDT) Rocky Worlds program.

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arXiv2024

The Implications of Thermal Hydrodynamic Atmospheric Escape on the TRAPPIST-1 Planets

JWST observations of the 7-planet TRAPPIST-1 system will provide an excellent opportunity to test outcomes of stellar-driven evolution of terrestrial planetary atmospheres, including atmospheric escape, ocean loss and abiotic oxygen production. While most previous studies use a single luminosity evolution for the host star, we incorporate observational uncertainties in stellar mass, luminosity evolution, system age, and planetary parameters to statistically explore the plausible range of planetary atmospheric escape outcomes. We present probabilistic distributions of total water loss and oxygen production as a function of initial water content, for planets with initially pure water atmospheres and no interior-atmosphere exchange. We find that the interior planets are desiccated for initial water contents below 50 Earth oceans. For TRAPPIST-1e, f, g, and h, we report maximum water loss ranges of 8.0$^{+1.3}_{-0.9}$, 4.8$^{+0.6}_{-0.4}$, 3.4$^{+0.3}_{-0.3}$, and 0.8$^{+0.2}_{-0.1}$ Earth oceans, respectively, with corresponding maximum oxygen retention of 1290$^{+75}_{-75}$, 800$^{+40}_{-40}$, 560$^{+30}_{-25}$, and 90$^{+10}_{-10}$ bars. We explore statistical constraints on initial water content imposed by current water content, which could inform evolutionary history and planet formation. If TRAPPIST-1b is airless while TRAPPIST-1c possesses a tenuous oxygen atmosphere, as initial JWST observations suggest, then our models predict an initial surface water content of 8.2$^{+1.5}_{-1.0}$ Earth oceans for these worlds, leading to the outer planets retaining $>$1.5 Earth oceans after entering the habitable zone. Even if TRAPPIST-1c is airless, surface water on the outer planets would not be precluded.

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arXiv2024

Orbital Stability and Secular Dynamics of the Proxima Centauri Planetary System

The two innermost planets of the Proxima Centauri system are separated by just 0.02 au, inducing strong gravitational interactions between them. We assess this interaction by leveraging fast orbital stability indicators and find that orbital stability is very likely if the initial eccentricities of planets b and d are less than $\sim 0.2$, but cannot confirm stability at larger values. We find that stability is not strongly affected by the true masses of the planets or by the distant planet c. However, mutual inclinations between 95$^\circ$ and 142$^\circ$ often result in unstable motion. We further explore the long-term evolution of the orbits in these stable regions of parameter space and find that circularization can take over 5 Gyr. This tidal evolution could support surface energy fluxes in excess of 1 W m$^{-2}$ for over 1 Gyr, possibly affecting planet b's habitability.

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arXiv2023

Atmospheric Escape From Three Terrestrial Planets in the L 98-59 System

A critically important process affecting the climate evolution and potential habitability of an exoplanet is atmospheric escape, in which high-energy radiation from a star drives the escape of hydrogen atoms and other light elements from a planet's atmosphere. L 98-59 is a benchmark system for studying such atmospheric processes, with three transiting terrestrial-size planets receiving Venus-like instellations (4-25 S$_\oplus$) from their M3 host star. We use the VPLanet model to simulate the evolution of the L 98-59 system and the atmospheric escape of its inner three small planets, given different assumed initial water quantities. We find that, regardless of their initial water content, all three planets accumulate significant quantities of oxygen due to efficient water photolysis and hydrogen loss. All three planets also receive enough XUV flux to drive rapid water loss, which considerably affects their developing climates and atmospheres. Even in scenarios of low initial water content, our results suggest that the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will be sensitive to observations of retained oxygen on the L 98-59 planets in its future scheduled observations, with planets b and c being the most likely targets to possess an extended atmosphere. Our results constrain the atmospheric evolution of these small rocky planets, and they provide context for current and future observations of the L 98-59 system to generalize our understanding of multi-terrestrial planet systems.

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arXiv2023

Functionality of Ice Line Latitudinal EBM Tenacity (FILLET). Protocol Version 1.0. A CUISINES intercomparison project

Energy balance models (EBMs) are one- or two-dimensional climate models that can provide insight into planetary atmospheres, particularly with regard to habitability. Because EBMs are far less computationally intensive than three-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs), they can be run over large, uncertain parameter spaces and can be used to explore long-period phenomena like carbon and Milankovitch cycles. Because horizontal dimensions are incorporated in EBMs, they can explore processes that are beyond the reach of one-dimensional radiative-convective models (RCMs). EBMs are, however, dependent on parameterizations and tunings to account for physical processes that are neglected. Thus, EBMs rely on observations and results from GCMs and RCMs. Different EBMs have included a wide range of parameterizations (for albedo, radiation, and heat diffusion) and additional physics, such as carbon cycling and ice sheets. This CUISINES exoplanet model intercomparison project (exoMIP) will compare various EBMs across a set of numerical experiments. The set of experiments will include Earth-like planets at different obliquities, parameter sweeps across obliquity, and variations in instellation and CO$_2$ abundance to produce hysteresis diagrams. We expect a range of different results due to the choices made in the various codes, highlighting which results are robust across models and which are dependent on parameterizations or other modeling choices. Additionally, it will allow developers to identify model defects and determine which parameterizations are most useful or relevant to the problem of interest. Ultimately, this exoMIP will allow us to improve the consistency between EBMs and accelerate the process of discovering habitable exoplanets.

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arXiv2022

The Contribution of M-Dwarf Flares to the Thermal Escape of Potentially Habitable Planet Atmospheres

The habitability of planets around M dwarfs ($\lesssim 0.5 M_\odot$) can be affected by the XUV (X rays + extreme UV) emission of these stars, with flares occasionally increasing the XUV flux by more than 2 orders of magnitude above quiescent levels. This wavelength range can warm and ionize terrestrial planets' upper atmospheres, which expands the planetary radius and promotes atmospheric loss. In this work, we study the contribution of the XUV flux due to flares on the atmospheric escape of Earth-like planets orbiting M dwarfs through numerical simulations. We considered the first Gyr of planets with initial surface water abundances between 1 and 10 terrestrial oceans (TO), a small primordial hydrogen envelope ($\le$ $10^{-3}$~$M_{\oplus}$), and with host star masses between 0.2 and 0.6 $M_{\odot}$. In this parameter range, we find that flares can remove up to two TO more than nonflaring stars, which, in some cases, translates to a doubling of the total water loss. We also find that flaring can increase atmospheric oxygen partial pressures by hundreds of bars in some cases. These results were obtained by adding a new module for flares to the \vplanet software package and upgrading its atmospheric escape module to account for Roche lobe overflow and radiation/recombination-limited escape.

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arXiv2021

The Ice Coverage of Earth-like Planets Orbiting FGK Stars

The photometric and spectroscopic signatures of habitable planets orbiting FGK stars may be modulated by surface ice coverage. To estimate its frequency and locations, we simulated the climates of hypothetical planets with a 1D energy balance model and assumed that the planets possess properties similar to modern Earth (mass, geography, atmosphere). We first simulated planets with fixed rotational axes and circular orbits, finding that the vast majority (>90%) of planets with habitable surfaces are free of ice. For planets with partial ice coverage, the parameter space for ice caps (interannual ice located at the poles) is about as large as that for "ice belts" (interannual ice located at the equator), but belts only persist on land. We then performed simulations that mimicked perturbations from other planets by forcing sinusoidal orbital and rotational oscillations over a range of frequencies and amplitudes. We assume initially ice-free surfaces and set the initial eccentricity distribution to mirror known exoplanets, while the initial obliquity distribution matches planet formation predictions, ie favoring 90 degrees. For these dynamic cases, we find again that ~90% of habitable planets are free of surface ice for a range of assumptions for ice's albedo. Planets orbiting F dwarfs are three times as likely to have ice caps than belts, but for planets orbiting K and G dwarfs ice belts are twice as likely as caps. In some cases, a planet's surface ice can cycle between the equatorial and polar regions. Future direct imaging surveys of habitable planets may be able to test these predictions.

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arXiv2021

Faint objects in motion: the new frontier of high precision astrometry

Sky survey telescopes and powerful targeted telescopes play complementary roles in astronomy. In order to investigate the nature and characteristics of the motions of very faint objects, a flexibly-pointed instrument capable of high astrometric accuracy is an ideal complement to current astrometric surveys and a unique tool for precision astrophysics. Such a space-based mission will push the frontier of precision astrometry from evidence of Earth-mass habitable worlds around the nearest stars, to distant Milky Way objects, and out to the Local Group of galaxies. As we enter the era of the James Webb Space Telescope and the new ground-based, adaptive-optics-enabled giant telescopes, by obtaining these high precision measurements on key objects that Gaia could not reach, a mission that focuses on high precision astrometry science can consolidate our theoretical understanding of the local Universe, enable extrapolation of physical processes to remote redshifts, and derive a much more consistent picture of cosmological evolution and the likely fate of our cosmos. Already several missions have been proposed to address the science case of faint objects in motion using high precision astrometry missions: NEAT proposed for the ESA M3 opportunity, micro-NEAT for the S1 opportunity, and Theia for the M4 and M5 opportunities. Additional new mission configurations adapted with technological innovations could be envisioned to pursue accurate measurements of these extremely small motions. The goal of this White Paper is to address the fundamental science questions that are at stake when we focus on the motions of faint sky objects and to briefly review instrumentation and mission profiles.

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arXiv2021

Improved Constraints for the XUV Luminosity Evolution of Trappist-1

We re-examine the XUV luminosity evolution of TRAPPIST-1 utilizing new observational constraints (XUV and bolometric luminosity) from multi-epoch X-ray/UV photometry. Following the formalism presented in Fleming et al. (2020), we infer that TRAPPIST-1 maintained a saturated XUV luminosity, relative to the bolometric luminosity, of $\log_{10}$(L$_{\rm XUV}$/L$_{\rm bol}$) $= -3.03_{-0.23}^{+0.25}$ at early times for a period of $t_{sat} = 3.14_{-1.46}^{+2.22}$ Gyr. After the saturation phase, we find L$_{\rm XUV}$ decayed over time by an exponential rate of $\beta_{\rm XUV} = -1.17_{-0.28}^{+0.27}$. Compared to our inferred age of the system, ${\rm age} = 7.96_{-1.87}^{+1.78}$ Gyr, our result for $t_{sat}$ suggests that there is only a $\sim4\%$~chance that TRAPPIST-1 still remains in the saturated phase today, which is significantly lower than the previous estimate of 40\%. Despite this reduction in $t_{sat}$, our results remain consistent in the conclusion that the TRAPPIST-1 planets likely received an extreme amount XUV energy -- an estimated integrated XUV energy of $\sim10^{30}-10^{32}$ erg over the star's lifetime.

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