arXiv subjects

Rory Barnes

Publications and source records attributed to Rory Barnes.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Improved Constraints for the XUV Luminosity Evolution of Trappist-1

We re-examine the XUV luminosity evolution of TRAPPIST-1 utilizing new observational constraints (XUV and bolometric luminosity) from multi-epoch X-ray/UV photometry. Following the formalism presented in Fleming et al. (2020), we infer that TRAPPIST-1 maintained a saturated XUV luminosity, relative to the bolometric luminosity, of $\log_{10}$(L$_{\rm XUV}$/L$_{\rm bol}$) $= -3.03_{-0.23}^{+0.25}$ at early times for a period of $t_{sat} = 3.14_{-1.46}^{+2.22}$ Gyr. After the saturation phase, we find L$_{\rm XUV}$ decayed over time by an exponential rate of $β_{\rm XUV} = -1.17_{-0.28}^{+0.27}$. Compared to our inferred age of the system, ${\rm age} = 7.96_{-1.87}^{+1.78}$ Gyr, our result for $t_{sat}$ suggests that there is only a $\sim4\%$~chance that TRAPPIST-1 still remains in the saturated phase today, which is significantly lower than the previous estimate of 40\%. Despite this reduction in $t_{sat}$, our results remain consistent in the conclusion that the TRAPPIST-1 planets likely received an extreme amount XUV energy -- an estimated integrated XUV energy of $\sim10^{30}-10^{32}$ erg over the star's lifetime.

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arXiv2021

TRAPPIST Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) workshop report

The era of atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets is just around the corner. Modeling prior to observations is crucial in order to predict the observational challenges and to prepare for the data interpretation. This paper presents the report of the TRAPPIST Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) workshop (14-16 September 2020). A review of the climate models and parameterizations of the atmospheric processes on terrestrial exoplanets, model advancements and limitations, as well as direction for future model development was discussed. We hope that this report will be used as a roadmap for future numerical simulations of exoplanet atmospheres and maintaining strong connections to the astronomical community.

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arXiv2020

Effects of Spin-Orbit Resonances and Tidal Heating on the Inner Edge of the Habitable Zone

Much attention has been given to the climate dynamics and habitable boundaries of synchronously rotating planets around low mass stars. However, other rotational states are possible, particularly when higher eccentricity orbits can be maintained in a system, including spin-orbit resonant configurations. Additionally, the oscillating strain as a planet moves from periastron to apoastron results in friction and tidal heating, which can be an important energy source. Here, we simulate the climate of ocean-covered planets near the inner edge of the habitable zone around M to solar stars with ROCKE-3D, and leverage the planetary evolution software package, VPLanet, to calculate tidal heating rates for Earth-sized planets orbiting 2600 K and 3000 K stars. This study is the first to use a 3-D General Circulation Model that implements tidal heating to investigate habitability for multiple resonant states. We find that in the absence of tidal heating, the resonant state has little impact on the inner edge, because for a given stellar flux, higher-order states tend to be warmer than synchronous rotators, but for a given temperature, have drier upper atmospheres. However, when strong tidal heating is present, the rotational component implies a strong dependence of habitable conditions on the system evolution and rotational state. Since tidal and stellar heating both decrease with orbital distance, this results in a compact orbital width separating temperate and uninhabitable climates. We summarize these results and also compare ROCKE-3D to previously published simulations of the inner edge that used a modified version of the NCAR CAM4 model.

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arXiv2020

Orbital evolution of potentially habitable planets of tidally interacting binary stars

We simulate the coupled stellar and tidal evolution of short-period binary stars (orbital period $P_{orb} \lsim$8 days) to investigate the orbital oscillations, instellation cycles, and orbital stability of circumbinary planets (CBPs). We consider two tidal models and show that both predict an outward-then-inward evolution of the binary's semi-major axis $a_{bin}$ and eccentricity $e_{bin}$. This orbital evolution drives a similar evolution of the minimum CBP semi-major axis for orbital stability. By expanding on previous models to include the evolution of the mass concentration, we show that the maximum in the CBP orbital stability limit tends to occur 100 Myr after the planets form, a factor of 100 longer than previous investigations. This result provides further support for the hypothesis that the early stellar-tidal evolution of binary stars has removed CBPs from short-period binaries. We then apply the models to Kepler-47 b, a CBP orbiting close to its host stars' stability limit, to show that if the binary's initial $e_{bin} \gsim$0.24, the planet would have been orbiting within the instability zone in the past and probably wouldn't have survived. For stable, hypothetical cases in which the stability limit does not reach a planet's orbit, we find that the amplitudes of $a_{bin}$ and $e_{bin}$ oscillations can damp by up to 10\% and 50\%, respectively. Finally, we consider equal-mass stars with $P_{orb} =$ 7.5 days and compare the HZ to the stability limit. We find that for stellar masses $\lsim0.12M_{\odot}$, the HZ is completely unstable, even if the binary orbit is circular. For $e_{bin} \lsim$0.5, that limit increases to $0.17M_{\odot}$, and the HZ is partially destabilized for stellar masses up to $0.45M_{\odot}$. These results may help guide searches for potentially habitable CBPs, as well as characterize their evolution and likelihood to support life after they are found.

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arXiv2020

Habitability Models for Planetary Sciences

Habitability has been generally defined as the capability of an environment to support life. Ecologists have been using Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs) for more than four decades to study the habitability of Earth from local to global scales. Astrobiologists have been proposing different habitability models for some time, with little integration and consistency between them and different in function to those used by ecologists. In this white paper, we suggest a mass-energy habitability model as an example of how to adapt and expand the models used by ecologists to the astrobiology field. We propose to implement these models into a NASA Habitability Standard (NHS) to standardize the habitability objectives of planetary missions. These standards will help to compare and characterize potentially habitable environments, prioritize target selections, and study correlations between habitability and biosignatures. Habitability models are the foundation of planetary habitability science. The synergy between the methods used by ecologists and astrobiologists will help to integrate and expand our understanding of the habitability of Earth, the Solar System, and exoplanets.

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arXiv2020

A Coupled Analysis of Atmospheric Mass Loss and Tidal Evolution in XUV Irradiated Exoplanets: the TRAPPIST-1 Case Study

Exoplanets residing close to their stars can experience evolution of both their physical structures and their orbits due to the influence of their host stars. In this work, we present a coupled analysis of dynamical tidal dissipation and atmospheric mass loss for exoplanets in XUV irradiated environments. As our primary application, we use this model to study the TRAPPIST-1 system, and place constraints on the interior structure and orbital evolution of the planets. We start by reporting on a UV continuum flux measurement (centered around $\sim1900$ Angstroms) for the star TRAPPIST-1, based on 300 ks of Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory data, and which enables an estimate of the XUV-driven thermal escape arising from XUV photo-dissociation for each planet. We find that the X-ray flaring luminosity, measured from our X-ray detections, of TRAPPIST-1 is 5.6 $\times$10$^{-4} L_{*}$, while the full flux including non-flaring periods is 6.1 $\times$10$^{-5} L_{*}$, when $L_{*}$ is TRAPPIST-1's bolometric luminosity. We then construct a model that includes both atmospheric mass-loss and tidal evolution, and requires the planets to attain their present-day orbital elements during this coupled evolution. We use this model to constrain the ratio $Q'=3Q/2k_{2}$ for each planet. Finally, we use additional numerical models implemented with the Virtual Planet Simulator \texttt{VPLanet} to study ocean retention for these planets using our derived system parameters.

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arXiv2020

On The XUV Luminosity Evolution of TRAPPIST-1

We model the long-term XUV luminosity of TRAPPIST-1 to constrain the evolving high-energy radiation environment experienced by its planetary system. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), we derive probabilistic constraints for TRAPPIST-1's stellar and XUV evolution that account for observational uncertainties, degeneracies between model parameters, and empirical data of low-mass stars. We constrain TRAPPIST-1's mass to $m_{\star} = 0.089 \pm{0.001}$ M$_{\odot}$ and find that its early XUV luminosity likely saturated at $\log_{10}(L_{XUV}/L_{bol}) = -3.03^{+0.23}_{-0.12}$. From the posterior distribution, we infer that there is a ${\sim}40\%$ chance that TRAPPIST-1 is still in the saturated phase today, suggesting that TRAPPIST-1 has maintained high activity and $L_{XUV}/L_{bol} \approx 10^{-3}$ for several Gyrs. TRAPPIST-1's planetary system therefore likely experienced a persistent and extreme XUV flux environment, potentially driving significant atmospheric erosion and volatile loss. The inner planets likely received XUV fluxes ${\sim}10^3 - 10^4\times$ that of the modern Earth during TRAPPIST-1's ${\sim}1$ Gyr-long pre-main sequence phase. Deriving these constraints via MCMC is computationally non-trivial, so scaling our methods to constrain the XUV evolution of a larger number of M dwarfs that harbor terrestrial exoplanets would incur significant computational expenses. We demonstrate that approxposterior, an open source Python machine learning package for approximate Bayesian inference using Gaussian processes, accurately and efficiently replicates our analysis using $980\times$ less computational time and $1330\times$ fewer simulations than MCMC sampling using emcee. We find that approxposterior derives constraints with mean errors on the best fit values and $1σ$ uncertainties of $0.61\%$ and $5.5\%$, respectively, relative to emcee.

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arXiv2019

Exomoons in the habitable zones of M dwarfs

M dwarfs host most of the exoplanets in the local Milky Way. Some of these planets, ranging from sub-Earths to super-Jupiters, orbit in their stars' habitable zones (HZs), although many likely possess surface environments that preclude habitability. Moreover, exomoons around these planets could harbor life for long timescales and thus may also be targets for biosignature surveys. Here we investigate the potential habitability, stability, and detectability of exomoons around exoplanets orbiting M dwarfs. We first compile an updated list of known M-dwarf exoplanet hosts, comprising 109 stars and 205 planets. For each M dwarf, we compute and update precise luminosities with the Virtual Observatory spectral energy distribution Analyzer and Gaia DR2 parallaxes to determine inner and outer boundaries of their HZs. For each planet, we retrieve (or, when necessary, homogeneously estimate) their masses and radii, calculate the long-term dynamical stability of hypothetical moons, and identify those planets that can support habitable moons. We find that 33 exoplanet candidates are located in the HZs of their host stars and that four of them could host Moon- to Titan-mass exomoons for timescales longer than the Hubble time.

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arXiv2019

VPLanet: The Virtual Planet Simulator

We describe a software package called VPLanet that simulates fundamental aspects of planetary system evolution over Gyr timescales, with a focus on investigating habitable worlds. In this initial release, eleven physics modules are included that model internal, atmospheric, rotational, orbital, stellar, and galactic processes. Many of these modules can be coupled simultaneously to simulate the evolution of terrestrial planets, gaseous planets, and stars. The code is validated by reproducing a selection of observations and past results. VPLanet is written in C and designed so that the user can choose the physics modules to apply to an individual object at runtime without recompiling, i.e., a single executable can simulate the diverse phenomena that are relevant to a wide range of planetary and stellar systems. This feature is enabled by matrices and vectors of function pointers that are dynamically allocated and populated based on user input. The speed and modularity of VPLanet enables large parameter sweeps and the versatility to add/remove physical phenomena to assess their importance. VPLanet is publicly available from a repository that contains extensive documentation, numerous examples, Python scripts for plotting and data management, and infrastructure for community input and future development.

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arXiv2019

Rotation Period Evolution in Low-Mass Binary Stars: The Impact of Tidal Torques and Magnetic Braking

We examine how tides, stellar evolution, and magnetic braking shape the rotation period (P$_{rot}$) evolution of low-mass stellar binaries up to orbital periods (P$_{orb}$) of 100 d across a wide range tidal dissipation parameters using two common equilibrium tidal models. We find that many binaries with P$_{orb} < 20$ d tidally lock, and most with $P_{orb} < 4$ d tidally lock into synchronous rotation on circularized orbits. At short P$_{orb}$, tidal torques produce a population of fast rotators that single-star only models of magnetic braking fail to produce. In many cases, we show that the competition between magnetic braking and tides produces a population of subsynchronous rotators that persists for Gyrs, even in short P$_{orb}$ binaries, qualitatively reproducing the subsynchronous eclipsing binaries (EBs) discovered in the Kepler field by Lurie et al. (2017). Both equilibrium tidal models predict that binaries can tidally-interact out to P$_{orb} \approx 80$ d, while the Constant Phase Lag tidal model predicts that binaries can tidally lock out to P$_{orb} \approx 100$ d. Tidal torques often force the P$_{rot}$ evolution of stellar binaries to depart from the long-term magnetic braking-driven spin down experienced by single stars, revealing that P$_{rot}$ is not be a valid proxy for age in all cases, i.e. gyrochronology can underpredict ages by up to $300\%$ unless one accounts for binarity. We suggest that accurate determinations of orbital eccentricties and P$_{rot}$ can be used to discriminate between which equilibrium tidal models best describes tidal interactions in low-mass binary stars.

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arXiv2019

The Pointing Limits of Transiting Exoplanet Light Curve Characterization with Pixel Level De-correlation

We present scope (Simulated CCD Observations for Photometric Experimentation), a Python package to create a forward model of telescope detectors and simulate stellar targets with motion relative to the CCD. The primary application of this package is the simulation of the Kepler Space Telescope detector to predict and characterize increased instrumental noise in the spacecraft's final campaigns of observation. As the fuel powering the spacecraft's stabilizing thrusters ran out and thruster fires began to sputter and fail, stellar Point Spread Functions (PSFs) experienced more extreme and less predictable motion relative to regions of varied sensitivity on the spacecraft detector, generating more noise in transiting exoplanet light curves. Using our simulations, we demonstrate that current de-trending techniques effectively capture and remove systematics caused by sensitivity variation for spacecraft motion as high as about ten times that typically experienced by K2. The scope package is open-source and has been generalized to allow custom detector and stellar target parameters. Future applications include simulating observations made by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) and ground based observations with synthetic atmospheric interference as testbeds for noise-removal techniques.

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arXiv2018

The first super-Earth Detection from the High Cadence and High Radial Velocity Precision Dharma Planet Survey

The Dharma Planet Survey (DPS) aims to monitor about 150 nearby very bright FGKM dwarfs (within 50 pc) during 2016$-$2020 for low-mass planet detection and characterization using the TOU very high resolution optical spectrograph (R$\approx$100,000, 380-900nm). TOU was initially mounted to the 2-m Automatic Spectroscopic Telescope at Fairborn Observatory in 2013-2015 to conduct a pilot survey, then moved to the dedicated 50-inch automatic telescope on Mt. Lemmon in 2016 to launch the survey. Here we report the first planet detection from DPS, a super-Earth candidate orbiting a bright K dwarf star, HD 26965. It is the second brightest star ($V=4.4$ mag) on the sky with a super-Earth candidate. The planet candidate has a mass of 8.47$\pm0.47M_{\rm Earth}$, period of $42.38\pm0.01$ d, and eccentricity of $0.04^{+0.05}_{-0.03}$. This RV signal was independently detected by Diaz et al. (2018), but they could not confirm if the signal is from a planet or from stellar activity. The orbital period of the planet is close to the rotation period of the star (39$-$44.5 d) measured from stellar activity indicators. Our high precision photometric campaign and line bisector analysis of this star do not find any significant variations at the orbital period. Stellar RV jitters modeled from star spots and convection inhibition are also not strong enough to explain the RV signal detected. After further comparing RV data from the star's active magnetic phase and quiet magnetic phase, we conclude that the RV signal is due to planetary-reflex motion and not stellar activity.

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arXiv2018

Exo-Milankovitch Cycles II: Climates of G-dwarf Planets in Dynamically Hot Systems

Using an energy balance model with ice sheets, we examine the climate response of an Earth-like planet orbiting a G dwarf star and experiencing large orbital and obliquity variations. We find that ice caps couple strongly to the orbital forcing, leading to extreme ice ages. In contrast with previous studies, we find that such exo-Milankovitch cycles tend to impair habitability by inducing snowball states within the habitable zone. The large amplitude changes in obliquity and eccentricity cause the ice edge, the lowest latitude extent of the ice caps, to become unstable and grow to the equator. We apply an analytical theory of the ice edge latitude to show that obliquity is the primary driver of the instability. The thermal inertia of the ice sheets and the spectral energy distribution of the G dwarf star increase the sensitivity of the model to triggering runaway glaciation. Finally, we apply a machine learning algorithm to demonstrate how this technique can be used to extend the power of climate models. This work illustrates the importance of orbital evolution for habitability in dynamically rich planetary systems. We emphasize that as potentially habitable planets are discovered around G dwarfs, we need to consider orbital dynamics.

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arXiv2018

Exoplanet Science Priorities from the Perspective of Internal and Surface Processes for Silicate and Ice Dominated Worlds

The geophysics of extrasolar planets is a scientific topic often regarded as standing largely beyond the reach of near-term observations. This reality in no way diminishes the central role of geophysical phenomena in shaping planetary outcomes, from formation, to thermal and chemical evolution, to numerous issues of surface and near-surface habitability. We emphasize that for a balanced understanding of extrasolar planets, it is important to look beyond the natural biases of current observing tools, and actively seek unique pathways to understand exoplanet interiors as best as possible during the long interim prior to a time when internal components are more directly accessible. Such pathways include but are not limited to: (a) enhanced theoretical and numerical modeling, (b) laboratory research on critical material properties, (c) measurement of geophysical properties by indirect inference from imprints left on atmospheric and orbital properties, and (d) the purpose-driven use of Solar System object exploration expressly for its value in comparative planetology toward exoplanet-analogs. Breaking down barriers that envision local Solar System exploration, including the study of Earth's own deep interior, as separate from and in financial competition with extrasolar planet research, may greatly improve the rate of needed scientific progress for exoplanet geophysics. As the number of known rocky and icy exoplanets grows in the years ahead, we expect demand for expertise in 'exogeoscience' will expand at a commensurately intense pace. We highlight key topics, including: how water oceans below ice shells may dominate the total habitability of our galaxy by volume, how free-floating nomad planets may often attain habitable subsurface oceans supported by radionuclide decay, and how deep interiors may critically interact with atmospheric mass loss via dynamo-driven magnetic fields.

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arXiv2018

Highly Volcanic Exoplanets, Lava Worlds, and Magma Ocean Worlds: An Emerging Class of Dynamic Exoplanets of Significant Scientific Priority

Highly volcanic exoplanets, which can be variously characterized as 'lava worlds', 'magma ocean worlds', or 'super-Ios' are high priority targets for investigation. The term 'lava world' may refer to any planet with extensive surface lava lakes, while the term 'magma ocean world' refers to planets with global or hemispherical magma oceans at their surface. 'Highly volcanic planets', including super-Ios, may simply have large, or large numbers of, active explosive or extrusive volcanoes of any form. They are plausibly highly diverse, with magmatic processes across a wide range of compositions, temperatures, activity rates, volcanic eruption styles, and background gravitational force magnitudes. Worlds in all these classes are likely to be the most characterizable rocky exoplanets in the near future due to observational advantages that stem from their preferential occurrence in short orbital periods and their bright day-side flux in the infrared. Transit techniques should enable a level of characterization of these worlds analogous to hot Jupiters. Understanding processes on highly volcanic worlds is critical to interpret imminent observations. The physical states of these worlds are likely to inform not just geodynamic processes, but also planet formation, and phenomena crucial to habitability. Volcanic and magmatic activity uniquely allows chemical investigation of otherwise spectroscopically inaccessible interior compositions. These worlds will be vital to assess the degree to which planetary interior element abundances compare to their stellar hosts, and may also offer pathways to study both the very young Earth, and the very early form of many silicate planets where magma oceans and surface lava lakes are expected to be more prevalent. We suggest that highly volcanic worlds may become second only to habitable worlds in terms of both scientific and public long-term interest.

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arXiv2018

On The Lack of Circumbinary Planets Orbiting Isolated Binary Stars

We outline a mechanism that explains the observed lack of circumbinary planets (CBPs) via coupled stellar-tidal evolution of isolated binary stars. Tidal forces between low-mass, short-period binary stars on the pre-main sequence slow the stellar rotations, transferring rotational angular momentum to the orbit as the stars approach the tidally locked state. This transfer increases the binary orbital period, expanding the region of dynamical instability around the binary, and destabilizing CBPs that tend to preferentially orbit just beyond the initial dynamical stability limit. After the stars tidally lock, we find that angular momentum loss due to magnetic braking can significantly shrink the binary orbit, and hence the region of dynamical stability, over time impacting where surviving CBPs are observed relative to the boundary. We perform simulations over a wide range of parameter space and find that the expansion of the instability region occurs for most plausible initial conditions and that in some cases, the stability semi-major axis doubles from its initial value. We examine the dynamical and observable consequences of a CBP falling within the dynamical instability limit by running N-body simulations of circumbinary planetary systems and find that typically, at least one planet is ejected from the system. We apply our theory to the shortest period {\it Kepler} binary that possesses a CBP, Kepler-47, and find that its existence is consistent with our model. Under conservative assumptions, we find that coupled stellar-tidal evolution of pre-main sequence binary stars removes at least one close-in CBP in $87\%$ of multi-planet circumbinary systems.

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arXiv2018

The Habitability of Proxima Centauri b I: Evolutionary Scenarios

We analyze the evolution of the potentially habitable planet Proxima Centauri b to identify environmental factors that affect its long-term habitability. We consider physical processes acting on size scales ranging from the galactic to the stellar system to the planet's core. We find that there is a significant probability that Proxima Centauri has had encounters with its companion stars, Alpha Centauri A and B, that are close enough to destabilize an extended planetary system. If the system has an additional planet, as suggested by the discovery data, then it may perturb planet b's eccentricity and inclination, possibly driving those parameters to non-zero values, even in the presence of strong tidal damping. We also model the internal evolution of the planet, evaluating the roles of different radiogenic abundances and tidal heating and find that magnetic field generation is likely for billions of years. We find that if planet b formed in situ, then it experienced 169 +/- 13 million years in a runaway greenhouse as the star contracted during its formation. This early phase could remove up to 5 times as much water as in the modern Earth's oceans, possibly producing a large abiotic oxygen atmosphere. On the other hand, if Proxima Centauri b formed with a substantial hydrogen atmosphere (0.01 - 1% of the planet's mass), then this envelope could have shielded the water long enough for it to be retained before being blown off itself. After modeling this wide range of processes we conclude that water retention during the host star's pre-main sequence phase is the biggest obstacle for Proxima b's habitability. These results are all obtained with a new software package called VPLANET.

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arXiv2018

Geoscience and the Search for Life Beyond the Solar System

How can scientists conclude with high confidence that an exoplanet hosts life? As telescopes come on line over the next 20 years that can directly observe photons from terrestrial exoplanets, this question will dictate the activities of many scientists across many fields. The expected data will be sparse and with low signal-to-noise, which will make disentangling biosignatures from abiotic features challenging. Our Earth is not just unique in that it hosts life, it is also the only terrestrial planet with direct observations of its interior through seismic waves, and compositional evolution through field and laboratory measurements. This extensive research reveals a planet born from collisions between worlds, followed by a complicated biogeochemical evolution. Exoplanet interiors, on the other hand, can only be constrained by the following observations: 1) photometric and spectroscopic analysis of the planet's atmosphere, 2) spectroscopic and photometric analysis of the host star, and 3) companion planet properties. From these (future) data, astrobiologists must generate plausible compositional and evolutionary models that constrain a potentially habitable exoplanet's internal properties and history, provide environmental context, and rule out geochemical explanations for any putative biosignatures. The goal of this white paper is to frame the role of geophysical and geochemical processes relevant to the search for life beyond the Solar System and to identify critical, but understudied, areas of future research.

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