arXiv subjects

Ruichu Cai

Publications and source records attributed to Ruichu Cai.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

ChorusTIC: Training-Free Multivariate Time Series Classification via Chorus In-Context Learning

Time series classification underpins applications in healthcare, sensing, and industrial monitoring. Although time series foundation models support forecasting and transferable representation learning, classification still typically requires fitting a task-specific classifier on each target dataset, while individual channels of multivariate inputs are often encoded independently. We introduce ChorusTIC, a classification-native foundation model for in-context classification across heterogeneous channel configurations without target-task parameter updates. ChorusTIC combines episode-consistent Random Subchannel Slot Concatenation with a shared dual-axis encoder to model temporal and cross-channel interactions and map variable channel configurations into a fixed-width representation independent of the original channel count. It then calibrates feature axes using context-derived distributions and predicts query labels through leakage-protected in-context learning. We pretrain ChorusTIC solely on synthetic labeled episodes comprising context and query sets that share a task background, with classes distinguished by sparse temporal or cross-channel rules. Evaluations on the complete UEA-30 and UCR-128 archives show strong full-context and low-label performance without target-specific classifier fitting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

SANE: State Anomaly Neutralization for Stable Extreme-Context Delta-Rule Models

Delta-Rule recurrent models maintain a fixed-size state, enabling $O(1)$ inference memory but potentially becoming unstable under extreme-context extrapolation. By tracking RWKV-7 over sequences of up to 100M tokens, we empirically identify a distinct failure pattern: \textbf{localized norm explosion atop a relatively sparse substrate}, rather than global state saturation. Analysis of the recurrent update suggests that persistent decay keeps weakly updated entries small, whereas uneven injections allow a few channels to accumulate extreme values. Motivated by this diagnosis, we propose \textbf{State Anomaly Neutralization (SANE)}, which applies adaptive $\tanh$ compression at chunk boundaries while preserving the intra-chunk parallel structure. Within a safe threshold range ($3 \le \alpha \le 5$), SANE matches the baseline on 11 short-context reasoning benchmarks with no statistically significant degradation. After a 100M-token prefix, which exceeds the training length by over $24{,}000\times$, SANE retains functional reasoning ($33.46$--$35.56$) while the baseline encounters numerical overflow. In contrast, overly permissive thresholds ($\alpha \ge 8$) remain numerically stable but lose reasoning capability entirely, showing that numerical stabilization alone does not guarantee functional reasoning and revealing a capacity--stability trade-off in state compression.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Testing the Validity of Instrumental Variable Sets in Causal Additive Models with Non-Constant Effects

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are powerful for causal effect estimation with unmeasured confounding, but in practice researchers often face a set of candidate IVs whose validity is difficult to determine from observational data. This paper studies the problem of testing the validity of IV sets under Causal Additive Models with Non-Constant Effects (CAM-NCE). To address this problem, we propose a testable condition, termed the Cross Auxiliary-based independence Test (CAT) condition, for assessing IV set validity from observational data. We show that, under the completeness condition, if the CAT condition is violated, the corresponding set cannot be a valid IV set. Furthermore, under a cross distributional non-degeneracy condition, we establish that the CAT condition becomes both necessary and sufficient for characterizing valid IV sets under CAM-NCE. We then extend the CAT condition to settings with covariates and develop a practical finite-sample algorithm for testing the validity of candidate IV sets. Extensive experiments on synthetic data and three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and practical utility of the proposed method.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

IADD-TR: Intervention-Aware Dynamics Decoupling with Targeted Regularization for Model-Based Reinforcement Learning

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL), which learns environment dynamics to generate synthetic experience, is a promising approach to sample-efficient decision making. Numerous methods have been developed to improve dynamics prediction and policy optimization for MBRL through uncertainty estimation, model regularization, and conservative value learning. However, these methods typically treat the transition model and critic as monolithic predictors, overlooking the policy-induced data bias. Consequently, action can become entangled with environmental evolution, while uneven action coverage may distort the counterfactual value estimates used for policy improvement. To address this, we propose IADD-TR, a unified framework combining Intervention-Aware Dynamics Decoupling (IADD) and Targeted Regularization (TR). IADD factorizes transitions into an action-intervention stage and an action-free natural evolution stage, using a zero-action anchor to resolve the non-uniqueness of this two-stage factorization for robust generalization. Its latent and state-aligned components are identifiable up to an invertible within-block transformation and pointwise, respectively. For policy learning, we derive TR from the efficient influence function of a replay-state policy-gradient functional. TR augments the critic with an action-density-scaled residual correction and optimizes a targeted loss, yielding doubly robust policy-gradient estimation when either the critic or the replay action density is consistently specified. Extensive experiments on five MuJoCo tasks show that IADD-TR achieves competitive returns with improved sample efficiency.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

EvoCause: LLM-Guided Evolution of Causal Graphs for Root Cause Analysis

Modern telecommunication, cloud, and microservice systems emit correlated alarm cascades when components fail. Root cause analysis (RCA) aims to identify the small set of alarms that initiate each cascade. A common approach learns a causal graph from observational logs and predicts all zero-in-degree alarms in each incident-induced subgraph. However, the learned graph remains fixed and cannot benefit from expert diagnoses of historical incidents. We close this loop with EvoCause. Expert labels constrain which alarms should be source nodes but do not specify the edge edits needed to satisfy those constraints. EvoCause uses a large language model (LLM) to propose semantically plausible graph edits, while deterministic code validates node identities and acyclicity and retains the best graph on a labeled alignment set. At test time, the refined graph alone produces transparent predictions without an LLM call. We also release TeleRCA, an expert-annotated benchmark from a production telecommunication network containing $485{,}681$ alarm events spanning $194$ alarm types over $5{,}621$ resources. On synthetic data, EvoCause initialized with the PC causal discovery algorithm outperforms the unrefined PC baseline, raising Node F1, Case EM, and Graph F1 by $11.59$, $9.40$, and $4.59$ percentage points, respectively, while reducing nSHD by $0.2379$. On TeleRCA, replacing human-readable alarm titles with anonymous identifiers lowers Node F1 and Case EM by $6.12$ and $8.04$ percentage points, respectively, indicating that alarm-name information contributes to graph refinement.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Local Causal Structure Learning in the Presence of Latent Variables and Selection Bias

Discovering the direct causes and effects of a target variable from observational data is a fundamental problem in causal discovery, with broad applications in domains such as gene regulatory analysis and biomedical research. Existing causal discovery methods either learn a global causal structure, which incurs substantial computational cost, or assume the absence of latent variables and selection bias, assumptions that are often violated in real-world settings. Motivated by these challenges, we study local causal structure learning in the presence of latent variables and selection bias. Specifically, we first characterize a local region that enables target-specific causal discovery without recovering the entire global structure. We then establish a theoretical bridge between causal information learned from the observed distribution induced on this local region and the corresponding information in the global causal structure. Building on these foundations, we propose LoCaLS, a local causal structure learning algorithm that is sound and complete under standard assumptions and identifies the same direct causes and effects of a target variable as those identifiable by global causal discovery methods, while allowing for latent variables and selection bias. Extensive experiments on random and real-world structures demonstrate that the proposed method consistently achieves higher structural accuracy than existing local methods while requiring substantially less computational effort than state-of-the-art global methods. Furthermore, applications to two real-world gene expression datasets reveal biologically plausible target-specific causal structures, demonstrating its practical applicability in large-scale biological data analysis.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

CDFM: Towards a General-Purpose Causal Discovery Foundation Model

Causal discovery, the process of recovering underlying causal structures from observational data, is a fundamental pursuit across scientific disciplines. Over the past decades, numerous algorithms have been developed to tackle this challenge through workflows tailored to the specific causal mechanisms underlying each type of dataset, demonstrating effectiveness across a wide range of applications. However, as the volume and heterogeneity of real-world data continue to grow, this dataset-specific approach inevitably leads to a fragmented, test-driven paradigm that struggles to scale to the demands of modern scientific discovery. To address this, we formulate the Causal Discovery Foundation Model (CDFM) as a unified, general-purpose framework for zero-shot structural inference. To ensure reliable generalization across unknown domains, we first investigate the theoretical boundaries of causal identifiability, revealing the indispensable role of causal prior mechanisms in this process. Building on these insights, we formulate a principled variational framework that treats unknown causal mechanisms as latent variables and mathematically decomposes the intractable marginal likelihood into distinct, tractable learning modules. The variational decomposition provides a conceptual design principle for the architecture design of CDFM, while comprehensive causal knowledge guides the large-scale synthesis of our pretraining data. By pretraining on a massive, highly diverse space of synthetic structural causal models, CDFM successfully internalizes complex statistical asymmetries. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CDFM consistently outperforms traditional algorithms, driving a paradigm shift toward a general-purpose causal discovery foundation model.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Temporal Smoothness Doubly Robust Learning for Debiased Knowledge Tracing

Knowledge Tracing (KT) is fundamental to intelligent education systems, yet relies on educational logs that are selectively observed. The non-random nature of exercise recommendations and student choices inevitably induces severe selection bias. Most existing KT methods neglect this issue, training on observed logs using standard empirical risk, which yields biased mastery estimates and accumulates errors in subsequent recommendations. To address this, we introduce a doubly robust (DR) formulation for KT that integrates a propensity model with an error imputation model, theoretically guaranteeing unbiasedness if either model is accurate. Beyond unbiasedness, in the sequential setting of KT, we identify that the estimator's performance is compromised by variance-dependent stochastic deviations that accumulate over time, thereby causing training instability and limiting performance. To mitigate this, we derive a generalization bound that explicitly characterizes the impact of estimator variance and identifies temporal smoothness as a key factor in controlling it. Building on these theoretical insights, we propose the Temporal Smoothness Doubly Robust (TSDR) framework. TSDR jointly optimizes the KT predictor and the imputation model with a smoothness regularizer, effectively reducing variance while preserving the unbiasedness guarantee of DR. Experiments on multiple real-world benchmarks demonstrate that TSDR consistently enhances various state-of-the-art KT backbones, underscoring the vital role of principled bias correction in KT.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

SERE: Structural Example Retrieval for Enhancing LLMs in Event Causality Identification

Event Causality Identification (ECI) requires models to determine whether a given pair of events in a context exhibits a causal relationship. While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong performance across various NLP tasks, their effectiveness in ECI remains limited due to biases in causal reasoning, often leading to overprediction of causal relationships (causal hallucination). To mitigate these issues and enhance LLM performance in ECI, we propose SERE, a structural example retrieval framework that leverages LLMs' few-shot learning capabilities. SERE introduces an innovative retrieval mechanism based on three structural concepts: (i) Conceptual Path Metric, which measures the conceptual relationship between events using edit distance in ConceptNet; (ii) Syntactic Metric, which quantifies structural similarity through tree edit distance on syntactic trees; and (iii) Causal Pattern Filtering, which filters examples based on predefined causal structures using LLMs. By integrating these structural retrieval strategies, SERE selects more relevant examples to guide LLMs in causal reasoning, mitigating bias and improving accuracy in ECI tasks. Extensive experiments on multiple ECI datasets validate the effectiveness of SERE. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/DMIRLAB-Group/SERE.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

SAM-NER: Semantic Archetype Mediation for Zero-Shot Named Entity Recognition

Zero-shot Named Entity Recognition (ZS-NER) remains brittle under domain and schema shifts, where unseen label definitions often misalign with a large language model's (LLM's) intrinsic semantic organization. As a result, directly mapping entity mentions to fine-grained target labels can induce systematic semantic drift, especially when target schemas are novel or semantically overlapping. We propose \textbf{SAM-NER}, a three-stage framework based on \emph{Semantic Archetype Mediation} that stabilizes cross-domain transfer through an intermediate, domain-invariant archetype space. SAM-NER: (i) performs \emph{Entity Discovery} via cooperative extraction and consensus-based denoising to obtain high-coverage, high-fidelity entity spans; (ii) conducts \emph{Abstract Mediation} by projecting entities into a compact set of universal semantic archetypes distilled from high-level ontological abstractions; and (iii) applies \emph{Semantic Calibration} to resolve archetype-level predictions into target-domain types through constrained, definition-aligned inference with a frozen LLM. Experiments on the CrossNER benchmark show that SAM-NER consistently outperforms strong prior ZS-NER baselines in cross-domain settings. Our implementation will be open-sourced at https://github.com/DMIRLAB-Group/SAM-NER.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

$\mathcal{S}^2$IT: Stepwise Syntax Integration Tuning for Large Language Models in Aspect Sentiment Quad Prediction

Aspect Sentiment Quad Prediction (ASQP) has seen significant advancements, largely driven by the powerful semantic understanding and generative capabilities of large language models (LLMs). However, while syntactic structure information has been proven effective in previous extractive paradigms, it remains underutilized in the generative paradigm of LLMs due to their limited reasoning capabilities. In this paper, we propose S^2IT, a novel Stepwise Syntax Integration Tuning framework that progressively integrates syntactic structure knowledge into LLMs through a multi-step tuning process. The training process is divided into three steps. S^2IT decomposes the quadruple generation task into two stages: 1) Global Syntax-guided Extraction and 2) Local Syntax-guided Classification, integrating both global and local syntactic structure information. Finally, Fine-grained Structural Tuning enhances the model's understanding of syntactic structures through the prediction of element links and node classification. Experiments demonstrate that S^2IT significantly improves state-of-the-art performance across multiple datasets. Our implementation will be open-sourced at https://github.com/DMIRLAB-Group/S2IT.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Track-SQL: Enhancing Generative Language Models with Dual-Extractive Modules for Schema and Context Tracking in Multi-turn Text-to-SQL

Generative language models have shown significant potential in single-turn Text-to-SQL. However, their performance does not extend equivalently to multi-turn Text-to-SQL. This is primarily due to generative language models' inadequacy in handling the complexities of context information and dynamic schema linking in multi-turn interactions. In this paper, we propose a framework named Track-SQL, which enhances generative language models with dual-extractive modules designed to track schema and contextual changes in multi-turn Text-to-SQL. Specifically, Track-SQL incorporates a \emph{Semantic-enhanced Schema Extractor} and a \emph{Schema-aware Context Extractor}. Experimental results demonstrate that Track-SQL achieves state-of-the-art performance on the SparC and CoSQL datasets. Furthermore, detailed ablation studies reveal that Track-SQL significantly improves execution accuracy in multi-turn interactions by 7.1\% and 9.55\% on these datasets, respectively. Our implementation will be open-sourced at https://github.com/DMIRLAB-Group/Track-SQL.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Hierarchical Action Learning for Weakly-Supervised Action Segmentation

Humans perceive actions through key transitions that structure actions across multiple abstraction levels, whereas machines, relying on visual features, tend to over-segment. This highlights the difficulty of enabling hierarchical reasoning in video understanding. Interestingly, we observe that lower-level visual and high-level action latent variables evolve at different rates, with low-level visual variables changing rapidly, while high-level action variables evolve more slowly, making them easier to identify. Building on this insight, we propose the Hierarchical Action Learning (\textbf{HAL}) model for weakly-supervised action segmentation. Our approach introduces a hierarchical causal data generation process, where high-level latent action governs the dynamics of low-level visual features. To model these varying timescales effectively, we introduce deterministic processes to align these latent variables over time. The \textbf{HAL} model employs a hierarchical pyramid transformer to capture both visual features and latent variables, and a sparse transition constraint is applied to enforce the slower dynamics of high-level action variables. This mechanism enhances the identification of these latent variables over time. Under mild assumptions, we prove that these latent action variables are strictly identifiable. Experimental results on several benchmarks show that the \textbf{HAL} model significantly outperforms existing methods for weakly-supervised action segmentation, confirming its practical effectiveness in real-world applications.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

CausalAgent: A Conversational Multi-Agent System for End-to-End Causal Inference

Causal inference holds immense value in fields such as healthcare, economics, and social sciences. However, traditional causal analysis workflows impose significant technical barriers, requiring researchers to possess dual backgrounds in statistics and computer science, while manually selecting algorithms, handling data quality issues, and interpreting complex results. To address these challenges, we propose CausalAgent, a conversational multi-agent system for end-to-end causal inference. The system innovatively integrates Multi-Agent Systems (MAS), Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), and the Model Context Protocol (MCP) to achieve automation from data cleaning and causal structure learning to bias correction and report generation through natural language interaction. Users need only upload a dataset and pose questions in natural language to receive a rigorous, interactive analysis report. As a novel user-centered human-AI collaboration paradigm, CausalAgent explicitly models the analysis workflow. By leveraging interactive visualizations, it significantly lowers the barrier to entry for causal analysis while ensuring the rigor and interpretability of the process.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Rethinking Zero-Shot Time Series Classification: From Task-specific Classifiers to In-Context Inference

The zero-shot evaluation of time series foundation models (TSFMs) for classification typically uses a frozen encoder followed by a task-specific classifier. However, this practice violates the training-free premise of zero-shot deployment and introduces evaluation bias due to classifier-dependent training choices. To address this issue, we propose TIC-FM, an in-context learning framework that treats the labeled training set as context and predicts labels for all test instances in a single forward pass, without parameter updates. TIC-FM pairs a time series encoder and a lightweight projection adapter with a split-masked latent memory Transformer. We further provide theoretical justification that in-context inference can subsume trained classifiers and can emulate gradient-based classifier training within a single forward pass. Experiments on 128 UCR datasets show strong accuracy, with consistent gains in the extreme low-label situation, highlighting training-free transfer for time series classification.The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/fangjuntao/TIC-FM.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

What Gets Activated: Uncovering Domain and Driver Experts in MoE Language Models

Most interpretability work focuses on layer- or neuron-level mechanisms in Transformers, leaving expert-level behavior in MoE LLMs underexplored. Motivated by functional specialization in the human brain, we analyze expert activation by distinguishing domain and driver experts. In this work, we study expert activation in MoE models across three public domains and address two key questions: (1) which experts are activated, and whether certain expert types exhibit consistent activation patterns; and (2) how tokens are associated with and trigger the activation of specific experts. To answer these questions, we introduce entropy-based and causal-effect metrics to assess whether an expert is strongly favored for a particular domain, and how strongly expert activation contributes causally to the model's output, thus identify domain and driver experts, respectively. Furthermore, we explore how individual tokens are associated with the activation of specific experts. Our analysis reveals that (1) Among the activated experts, some show clear domain preferences, while others exert strong causal influence on model performance, underscoring their decisive roles. (2) tokens occurring earlier in a sentence are more likely to trigger the driver experts, and (3) adjusting the weights of domain and driver experts leads to significant performance gains across all three models and domains. These findings shed light on the internal mechanisms of MoE models and enhance their interpretability.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

ENTRA: Entropy-Based Redundancy Avoidance in Large Language Model Reasoning

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) often suffer from overthinking, generating unnecessarily long reasoning chains even for simple tasks. This leads to substantial computational overhead with limited performance gain, primarily due to redundant verification and repetitive generation. While prior work typically constrains output length or optimizes correctness, such coarse supervision fails to guide models toward concise yet accurate inference. In this paper, we propose ENTRA, an entropy-based training framework that suppresses redundant reasoning while preserving performance. ENTRA first estimates the token-level importance using a lightweight Bidirectional Importance Estimation (BIE) method, which accounts for both prediction confidence and forward influence. It then computes a redundancy reward based on the entropy of low-importance tokens, normalized by its theoretical upper bound, and optimizes this reward via reinforcement learning. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that ENTRA reduces output length by 37% to 53% with no loss-and in some cases, gains-in accuracy. Our approach offers a principled and efficient solution to reduce overthinking in LRMs, and provides a generalizable path toward redundancy-aware reasoning optimization.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Text-to-SQL as Dual-State Reasoning: Integrating Adaptive Context and Progressive Generation

Recent divide-and-conquer reasoning approaches, particularly those based on Chain-of-Thought (CoT), have substantially improved the Text-to-SQL capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, when applied to complex enterprise databases, such methods struggle to maintain coherent reasoning due to limited context capacity, unreliable schema linking, and weak grounding in database semantics. To overcome these issues, we introduce DSR-SQL, a \textbf{D}ual-\textbf{S}tate \textbf{R}easoning framework that models Text-to-SQL as an interaction between an adaptive context state and a progressive generation state. The first constructs a compact, semantically faithful environment by refining large schemas and selecting relevant structures, while the second formalizes SQL synthesis as feedback-guided state transitions, enabling the model to self-correct and align with user intent. Without any post-training or in-context examples, DSR-SQL achieves competitive performance, reaching 35.28\% execution accuracy on Spider 2.0-Snow and 68.32\% on BIRD development set. Our implementation will be open-sourced at: https://github.com/DMIRLAB-Group/DSR-SQL.

cs.CL↗