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Ryan J. MacDonald

Publications and source records attributed to Ryan J. MacDonald.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

The Effect of Stellar Contamination on Low-resolution Transmission Spectroscopy: Needs Identified by NASA's Exoplanet Exploration Program Study Analysis Group 21

Study Analysis Group 21 (SAG21) of NASA's Exoplanet Exploration Program Analysis Group (ExoPAG) was organized to study the effect of stellar contamination on space-based transmission spectroscopy, a method for studying exoplanetary atmospheres by measuring the wavelength-dependent radius of a planet as it transits its star. Transmission spectroscopy relies on a precise understanding of the spectrum of the star being occulted. However, stars are not homogeneous, constant light sources but have temporally evolving photospheres and chromospheres with inhomogeneities like spots, faculae, plages, granules, and flares. This SAG brought together an interdisciplinary team of more than 100 scientists, with observers and theorists from the heliophysics, stellar astrophysics, planetary science, and exoplanetary atmosphere research communities, to study the current research needs that can be addressed in this context to make the most of transit studies from current NASA facilities like HST and JWST. The analysis produced 14 findings, which fall into three Science Themes encompassing (1) how the Sun is used as our best laboratory to calibrate our understanding of stellar heterogeneities ("The Sun as the Stellar Benchmark"), (2) how stars other than the Sun extend our knowledge of heterogeneities ("Surface Heterogeneities of Other Stars") and (3) how to incorporate information gathered for the Sun and other stars into transit studies ("Mapping Stellar Knowledge to Transit Studies"). In this invited review, we largely reproduce the final report of SAG21 as a contribution to the peer-reviewed literature.

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A broadband thermal emission spectrum of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-18b

Close-in giant exoplanets with temperatures greater than 2,000 K (''ultra-hot Jupiters'') have been the subject of extensive efforts to determine their atmospheric properties using thermal emission measurements from the Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescopes. However, previous studies have yielded inconsistent results because the small sizes of the spectral features and the limited information content of the data resulted in high sensitivity to the varying assumptions made in the treatment of instrument systematics and the atmospheric retrieval analysis. Here we present a dayside thermal emission spectrum of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-18b obtained with the NIRISS instrument on JWST. The data span 0.85 to 2.85 $μ$m in wavelength at an average resolving power of 400 and exhibit minimal systematics. The spectrum shows three water emission features (at $>$6$σ$ confidence) and evidence for optical opacity, possibly due to H$^-$, TiO, and VO (combined significance of 3.8$σ$). Models that fit the data require a thermal inversion, molecular dissociation as predicted by chemical equilibrium, a solar heavy element abundance (''metallicity'', M/H = 1.03$_{-0.51}^{+1.11}$ $\times$ solar), and a carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratio less than unity. The data also yield a dayside brightness temperature map, which shows a peak in temperature near the sub-stellar point that decreases steeply and symmetrically with longitude toward the terminators.

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In Search of the Edge: A Bayesian Exploration of the Detectability of Red Edges in Exoplanet Reflection Spectra

Reflection spectroscopy holds great promise for characterizing the atmospheres and surfaces of potentially habitable terrestrial exoplanets. The surface of the modern Earth exhibits a sharp albedo change near 750 nm caused by vegetation - the red edge - which would leave a strong spectral signature if present on an exoplanet. However, the retrieval of wavelength-dependent surface properties from reflection spectra has seen relatively little study. Here, we propose a new surface albedo parameterization capable of retrieving the wavelength location of a priori unknown 'edge-like' features. We demonstrate that a wavelength-dependent surface albedo model achieves higher accuracy in retrieving atmospheric composition. Wavelength-dependent surfaces are also generally preferred over a uniform albedo model when retrieving simulated reflection spectra for a modern Earth analog, even for moderate signal-to-noise ratios (S/N = 10) and Earth-like clouds. Further, the location of the modern Earth's red edge can be robustly and precisely constrained (within 70 nm for S/N = 10). Our results suggest that future space-based direct imaging missions have the potential to infer surface compositions for rocky exoplanets, including spectral edges similar to those caused by life on the modern Earth.

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Early Release Science of the exoplanet WASP-39b with JWST NIRCam

Measuring the metallicity and carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratio in exoplanet atmospheres is a fundamental step towards constraining the dominant chemical processes at work and, if in equilibrium, revealing planet formation histories. Transmission spectroscopy provides the necessary means by constraining the abundances of oxygen- and carbon-bearing species; however, this requires broad wavelength coverage, moderate spectral resolution, and high precision that, together, are not achievable with previous observatories. Now that JWST has commenced science operations, we are able to observe exoplanets at previously uncharted wavelengths and spectral resolutions. Here we report time-series observations of the transiting exoplanet WASP-39b using JWST's Near InfraRed Camera (NIRCam). The long-wavelength spectroscopic and short-wavelength photometric light curves span 2.0 - 4.0 $μ$m, exhibit minimal systematics, and reveal well-defined molecular absorption features in the planet's spectrum. Specifically, we detect gaseous H$_2$O in the atmosphere and place an upper limit on the abundance of CH$_4$. The otherwise prominent CO$_2$ feature at 2.8 $μ$m is largely masked by H$_2$O. The best-fit chemical equilibrium models favour an atmospheric metallicity of 1-100$\times$ solar (i.e., an enrichment of elements heavier than helium relative to the Sun) and a sub-stellar carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratio. The inferred high metallicity and low C/O ratio may indicate significant accretion of solid materials during planet formation or disequilibrium processes in the upper atmosphere.

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Early Release Science of the Exoplanet WASP-39b with JWST NIRSpec G395H

Measuring the abundances of carbon and oxygen in exoplanet atmospheres is considered a crucial avenue for unlocking the formation and evolution of exoplanetary systems. Access to an exoplanet's chemical inventory requires high-precision observations, often inferred from individual molecular detections with low-resolution space-based and high-resolution ground-based facilities. Here we report the medium-resolution (R$\sim$600) transmission spectrum of an exoplanet atmosphere between 3-5 $μ$m covering multiple absorption features for the Saturn-mass exoplanet WASP-39b, obtained with JWST NIRSpec G395H. Our observations achieve 1.46x photon precision, providing an average transit depth uncertainty of 221 ppm per spectroscopic bin, and present minimal impacts from systematic effects. We detect significant absorption from CO$_2$ (28.5$σ$) and H$_2$O (21.5$σ$), and identify SO$_2$ as the source of absorption at 4.1 $μ$m (4.8$σ$). Best-fit atmospheric models range between 3 and 10x solar metallicity, with sub-solar to solar C/O ratios. These results, including the detection of SO$_2$, underscore the importance of characterising the chemistry in exoplanet atmospheres, and showcase NIRSpec G395H as an excellent mode for time series observations over this critical wavelength range.

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Early Release Science of the exoplanet WASP-39b with JWST NIRISS

Transmission spectroscopy provides insight into the atmospheric properties and consequently the formation history, physics, and chemistry of transiting exoplanets. However, obtaining precise inferences of atmospheric properties from transmission spectra requires simultaneously measuring the strength and shape of multiple spectral absorption features from a wide range of chemical species. This has been challenging given the precision and wavelength coverage of previous observatories. Here, we present the transmission spectrum of the Saturn-mass exoplanet WASP-39b obtained using the SOSS mode of the NIRISS instrument on the JWST. This spectrum spans $0.6 - 2.8 μ$m in wavelength and reveals multiple water absorption bands, the potassium resonance doublet, as well as signatures of clouds. The precision and broad wavelength coverage of NIRISS-SOSS allows us to break model degeneracies between cloud properties and the atmospheric composition of WASP-39b, favoring a heavy element enhancement ("metallicity") of $\sim 10 - 30 \times$ the solar value, a sub-solar carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratio, and a solar-to-super-solar potassium-to-oxygen (K/O) ratio. The observations are best explained by wavelength-dependent, non-gray clouds with inhomogeneous coverage of the planet's terminator.

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Identification of carbon dioxide in an exoplanet atmosphere

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a key chemical species that is found in a wide range of planetary atmospheres. In the context of exoplanets, CO2 is an indicator of the metal enrichment (i.e., elements heavier than helium, also called "metallicity"), and thus formation processes of the primary atmospheres of hot gas giants. It is also one of the most promising species to detect in the secondary atmospheres of terrestrial exoplanets. Previous photometric measurements of transiting planets with the Spitzer Space Telescope have given hints of the presence of CO2 but have not yielded definitive detections due to the lack of unambiguous spectroscopic identification. Here we present the detection of CO2 in the atmosphere of the gas giant exoplanet WASP-39b from transmission spectroscopy observations obtained with JWST as part of the Early Release Science Program (ERS). The data used in this study span 3.0 to 5.5 μm in wavelength and show a prominent CO2 absorption feature at 4.3 μm (26σ significance). The overall spectrum is well matched by one-dimensional, 10x solar metallicity models that assume radiative-convective-thermochemical equilibrium and have moderate cloud opacity. These models predict that the atmosphere should have water, carbon monoxide, and hydrogen sulfide in addition to CO2, but little methane. Furthermore, we also tentatively detect a small absorption feature near 4.0 μm that is not reproduced by these models.

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The Hubble PanCET Program: A Featureless Transmission Spectrum for WASP-29b and Evidence of Enhanced Atmospheric Metallicity on WASP-80b

We present a uniform analysis of transit observations from the Hubble Space Telescope and Spitzer Space Telescope of two warm gas giants orbiting K-type stars - WASP-29b and WASP-80b. The transmission spectra, which span 0.4-5.0 $μ$m, are interpreted using a suite of chemical equilibrium PLATON atmospheric retrievals. Both planets show evidence of significant aerosol opacity along the day-night terminator. The spectrum of WASP-29b is flat throughout the visible and near-infrared, suggesting the presence of condensate clouds extending to low pressures. The lack of spectral features hinders our ability to constrain the atmospheric metallicity and C/O ratio. In contrast, WASP-80b shows a discernible, albeit muted H$_2$O absorption feature at 1.4 $μ$m, as well as a steep optical spectral slope that is caused by fine-particle aerosols and/or contamination from unocculted spots on the variable host star. WASP-80b joins the small number of gas-giant exoplanets that show evidence for enhanced atmospheric metallicity: the transmission spectrum is consistent with metallicities ranging from $\sim$30-100 times solar in the case of cloudy limbs to a few hundred times solar in the cloud-free scenario. In addition to the detection of water, we infer the presence of CO$_2$ in the atmosphere of WASP-80b based on the enhanced transit depth in the Spitzer 4.5 $μ$m bandpass. From a complementary analysis of Spitzer secondary eclipses, we find that the dayside emission from WASP-29b and WASP-80b is consistent with brightness temperatures of $937 \pm 48$ and $851 \pm 14$ K, respectively, indicating relatively weak day-night heat transport and low Bond albedo.

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A retrieval challenge exercise for the Ariel mission

The Ariel mission, due to launch in 2029, will obtain spectroscopic information for 1000 exoplanets, providing an unprecedented opportunity for comparative exoplanetology. Retrieval codes - parameteric atmospheric models coupled with an inversion algorithm - represent the tool of choice for interpreting Ariel data. Ensuring that reliable and consistent results can be produced by these tools is a critical preparatory step for the mission. Here, we present the results of a retrieval challenge. We use five different exoplanet retrieval codes to analyse the same synthetic datasets, and test a) the ability of each to recover the correct input solution and b) the consistency of the results. We find that generally there is very good agreement between the five codes, and in the majority of cases the correct solutions are recovered. This demonstrates the reproducibility of retrievals for transit spectra of exoplanets, even when codes are not previously benchmarked against each other.

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TRIDENT: A Rapid 3D Radiative Transfer Model for Exoplanet Transmission Spectra

Transmission spectroscopy is one of the premier methods used to probe the temperature, composition, and cloud properties of exoplanet atmospheres. Recent studies have demonstrated that the multidimensional nature of exoplanet atmospheres -- due to non-uniformities across the day-night transition and between the morning and evening terminators -- can strongly influence transmission spectra. However, the computational demands of 3D radiative transfer techniques have precluded their usage within atmospheric retrievals. Here we introduce TRIDENT, a new 3D radiative transfer model which rapidly computes transmission spectra of exoplanet atmospheres with day-night, morning-evening, and vertical variations in temperature, chemical abundances, and cloud properties. We also derive a general equation for transmission spectra, accounting for 3D atmospheres, refraction, multiple scattering, ingress/egress, grazing transits, stellar heterogeneities, and nightside thermal emission. After introducing TRIDENT's linear algebra-based approach to 3D radiative transfer, we propose new parametric prescriptions for 3D temperature and abundance profiles and 3D clouds. We show that multidimensional transmission spectra exhibit two significant observational signatures: (i) day-night composition gradients alter the relative amplitudes of absorption features; and (ii) morning-evening composition gradients distort the peak-to-wing contrast of absorption features. Finally, we demonstrate that these signatures of multidimensional atmospheres incur residuals > 100 ppm compared to 1D models, rendering them potentially detectable with JWST. TRIDENT's rapid radiative transfer, coupled with parametric multidimensional atmospheres, unlocks the final barrier to 3D atmospheric retrievals.

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The Emission Spectrum of the Hot Jupiter WASP-79b from HST/WFC3

Here we present a thermal emission spectrum of WASP-79b, obtained via Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 G141 observations as part of the PanCET program. As we did not observe the ingress or egress of WASP-79b's secondary eclipse, we consider two scenarios: a fixed mid-eclipse time based on the expected occurrence time, and a mid-eclipse time as a free parameter. In both scenarios, we can measure thermal emission from WASP-79b from 1.1 to 1.7 $μ$m at 2.4$σ$ confidence consistent with a 1900 K brightness temperature for the planet. We combine our observations with Spitzer dayside photometry (3.6 and 4.5 $μ$m) and compare these observations to a grid of atmospheric forward models that span a range of metallicities, carbon-to-oxygen ratios, and recirculation factors. Given the strength of the planetary emission and the precision of our measurements, we found a wide range of forward models to be consistent with our data. The best-match equilibrium model suggests that WASP-79b's dayside has a solar metallicity and carbon-to-oxygen ratio, alongside a recirculation factor of 0.75. Models including significant H- opacity provide the best match to WASP-79b's emission spectrum near 1.58 $μ$m. However, models featuring high-temperature cloud species-formed via vigorous vertical mixing and low sedimentation efficiencies-with little day-to-night energy transport also match WASP-79b's emission spectrum. Given the broad range of equilibrium chemistry, disequilibrium chemistry, and cloudy atmospheric models consistent with our observations of WASP-79b's dayside emission, further observations will be necessary to constrain WASP-79b's dayside atmospheric properties.

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Gemini/GMOS Transmission Spectroscopy of the Grazing Planet Candidate WD 1856+534 b

WD 1856+534 b is a Jupiter-sized, cool giant planet candidate transiting the white dwarf WD 1856+534. Here, we report an optical transmission spectrum of WD 1856+534 b obtained from ten transits using the Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph. This system is challenging to observe due to the faintness of the host star and the short transit duration. Nevertheless, our phase-folded white light curve reached a precision of 0.12 %. WD 1856+534 b provides a unique transit configuration compared to other known exoplanets: the planet is $8\times$ larger than its star and occults over half of the stellar disc during mid-transit. Consequently, many standard modeling assumptions do not hold. We introduce the concept of a `limb darkening corrected, time-averaged transmission spectrum' and propose that this is more suitable than $(R_{\mathrm{p}, λ} / R_{\mathrm{s}})^2$ for comparisons to atmospheric models for planets with grazing transits. We also present a modified radiative transfer prescription. Though the transmission spectrum shows no prominent absorption features, it is sufficiently precise to constrain the mass of WD 1856+534 b to be > 0.84 M$_\mathrm{J}$ (to $2 \, σ$ confidence), assuming a clear atmosphere and a Jovian composition. High-altitude cloud decks can allow lower masses. WD 1856+534 b could have formed either as a result of common envelope evolution or migration under the Kozai-Lidov mechanism. Further studies of WD 1856+534 b, alongside new dedicated searches for substellar objects around white dwarfs, will shed further light on the mysteries of post-main sequence planetary systems.

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A comprehensive revisit of select Galileo/NIMS observations of Europa

The Galileo Near Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (NIMS) collected spectra of Europa in the 0.7-5.2 $μ$m wavelength region, which have been critical to improving our understanding of the surface composition of this moon. However, most of the work done to get constraints on abundances of species like water ice, hydrated sulfuric acid, hydrated salts and oxides have used proxy methods, such as absorption strength of spectral features or fitting a linear mixture of laboratory generated spectra. Such techniques neglect the effect of parameters degenerate with the abundances, such as the average grain-size of particles, or the porosity of the regolith. In this work we revisit three Galileo NIMS spectra, collected from observations of the trailing hemisphere of Europa, and use a Bayesian inference framework, with the Hapke reflectance model, to reassess Europa's surface composition. Our framework has several quantitative improvements relative to prior analyses: (1) simultaneous inclusion of amorphous and crystalline water ice, sulfuric-acid-octahydrate (SAO), CO$_2$, and SO$_2$; (2) physical parameters like regolith porosity and radiation-induced band-center shift; and (3) tools to quantify confidence in the presence of each species included in the model, constrain their parameters, and explore solution degeneracies. We find that SAO strongly dominates the composition in the spectra considered in this study, while both forms of water ice are detected at varying confidence levels. We find no evidence of either CO$_2$ or SO$_2$ in any of the spectra; we further show through a theoretical analysis that it is highly unlikely that these species are detectable in any 1-2.5 $μ$m Galileo NIMS data.

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Differentiating Modern and Prebiotic Earth Scenarios for TRAPPIST-1e: High-resolution Transmission Spectra and Predictions for JWST

The TRAPPIST-1 system is a priority target for terrestrial exoplanet characterization. TRAPPIST-1e, residing in the habitable zone, will be observed during the JWST GTO Program. Here, we assess the prospects of differentiating between prebiotic and modern Earth scenarios for TRAPPIST-1e via transmission spectroscopy. Using updated TRAPPIST-1 stellar models from the Mega-MUSCLES survey, we compute self-consistent model atmospheres for a 1 bar prebiotic Earth scenario and two modern Earth scenarios (1 and 0.5 bar eroded atmosphere). Our modern and prebiotic high-resolution transmission spectra (0.4 - 20 $μ$m at $R \sim$ 100,000) are made available online. We conduct a Bayesian atmospheric retrieval analysis to ascertain the molecular detectability, abundance measurements, and temperature constraints achievable for both scenarios with JWST. We demonstrate that JWST can differentiate between our prebiotic and modern Earth scenarios within 20 NIRSpec Prism transits via CH$_4$ abundance measurements. However, JWST will struggle to detect O$_3$ for our modern Earth scenario to $> 2\,σ$ confidence within the nominal mission lifetime ($\sim$ 80 transits over 5 years). The agnostic combination of N$_2$O and/or O$_3$ offers better prospects, with a predicted detection significance of $2.7\,σ$ with 100 Prism transits. We show that combining MIRI LRS transits with Prism data provides little improvement to atmospheric constraints compared to observing additional Prism transits. Though biosignatures will be challenging to detect for TRAPPIST-1e with JWST, the abundances for several important molecules - CO$_2$, CH$_4$, and H$_2$O - can be measured to a precision of $\lesssim$ 0.7 dex (a factor of 5) within a 20 Prism transit JWST program.

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A Spectral Survey of WASP-19b with ESPRESSO

High resolution precision spectroscopy provides a multitude of robust techniques for probing exoplanetary atmospheres. We present multiple VLT/ESPRESSO transit observations of the hot-Jupiter exoplanet WASP-19b with previously published but disputed atmospheric features from low resolution studies. Through spectral synthesis and modeling of the Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) effect we calculate stellar, orbital and physical parameters for the system. From narrow-band spectroscopy we do not detect any of H\,I, Fe\,I, Mg\,I, Ca\,I, Na\,I and K\,I neutral species, placing upper limits on their line contrasts. Through cross correlation analyses with atmospheric models, we do not detect Fe\,I and place a 3$σ$ upper limit of $\log\,(X_{\textrm{Fe}}/X_\odot) \approx -1.83\,\pm\,0.11$ on its mass fraction, from injection and retrieval. We show the inability to detect the presence of H$_2$O for known abundances, owing to lack of strong absorption bands, as well as relatively low S/N ratio. We detect a barely significant peak (3.02\,$\pm$\,0.15\,$σ$) in the cross correlation map for TiO, consistent with the sub-solar abundance previously reported. This is merely a hint for the presence of TiO and does \textit{not} constitute a confirmation. However, we do confirm the presence of previously observed enhanced scattering towards blue wavelengths, through chromatic RM measurements, pointing to a hazy atmosphere. We finally present a reanalysis of low resolution transmission spectra of this exoplanet, concluding that unocculted starspots alone cannot explain previously detected features. Our reanalysis of the FORS2 spectra of WASP-19b finds a $\sim$\,100$\times$ sub-solar TiO abundance, precisely constrained to $\log\,X_{\textrm{TiO}} \approx -7.52 \pm 0.38$, consistent with the TiO hint from ESPRESSO. We present plausible paths to reconciliation with other seemingly contradicting results.

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HST PanCET Program: A Complete Near-UV to Infrared Transmission Spectrum for the Hot Jupiter WASP-79b

We present a new optical transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter WASP-79b. We observed three transits with the STIS instrument mounted on HST, spanning 0.3 - 1.0 um. Combining these transits with previous observations, we construct a complete 0.3 - 5.0 um transmission spectrum of WASP-79b. Both HST and ground-based observations show decreasing transit depths towards blue wavelengths, contrary to expectations from Rayleigh scattering or hazes. We infer atmospheric and stellar properties from the full near-UV to infrared transmission spectrum of WASP-79b using three independent retrieval codes, all of which yield consistent results. Our retrievals confirm previous detections of H$_{2}$O (at 4.0$σ$ confidence), while providing moderate evidence of H$^{-}$ bound-free opacity (3.3$σ$) and strong evidence of stellar contamination from unocculted faculae (4.7$σ$). The retrieved H$_{2}$O abundance ($\sim$ 1$\%$) suggests a super-stellar atmospheric metallicity, though stellar or sub-stellar abundances remain consistent with present observations (O/H = 0.3 - 34$\times$ stellar). All three retrieval codes obtain a precise H$^{-}$ abundance constraint: log(X$_{\rm{H^{-}}}$) $\approx$ -8.0 $\pm$ 0.7. The potential presence of H$^{-}$ suggests that JWST observations may be sensitive to ionic chemistry in the atmosphere of WASP-79b. The inferred faculae are $\sim$ 500 K hotter than the stellar photosphere, covering $\sim$ 15$\%$ of the stellar surface. Our analysis underscores the importance of observing UV - optical transmission spectra in order to disentangle the influence of unocculted stellar heterogeneities from planetary transmission spectra.

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ACCESS: An optical transmission spectrum of the high-gravity, hot Jupiter HAT-P-23b

We present a new ground-based visible transmission spectrum of the high-gravity, hot Jupiter HAT-P-23b, obtained as part of the ACCESS project. We derive the spectrum from five transits observed between 2016 and 2018, with combined wavelength coverage between 5200 Å - 9269 Å in 200 Å bins, and with a median precision of 247 ppm per bin. HAT-P-23b's relatively high surface gravity (g ~ 30 m/s^2), combined with updated stellar and planetary parameters from Gaia DR2, gives a 5-scale-height signal of 384 ppm for a hydrogen-dominated atmosphere. Bayesian models favor a clear atmosphere for the planet with the tentative presence of TiO, after simultaneously modeling stellar contamination, using spots parameter constraints from photometry. If confirmed, HAT-P-23b would be the first example of a high-gravity gas giant with a clear atmosphere observed in transmission at optical/NIR wavelengths; therefore, we recommend expanding observations to the UV and IR to confirm our results and further characterize this planet. This result demonstrates how combining transmission spectroscopy of exoplanet atmospheres with long-term photometric monitoring of the host stars can help disentangle the exoplanet and stellar activity signals.

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Bayesian analysis of Juno/JIRAM's NIR observations of Europa

Juno spacecraft's spectrometer JIRAM recently observed the moon Europa in the 2-5 μm wavelength region. Here we present analysis of the average spectrum of a set of observations near 20°N and 40°W, focusing on the two forms of water-ice - amorphous and crystalline. We also take this as an opportunity to present a novel Bayesian spectral inversion framework for reflectance spectroscopy. We first validate this framework using simulated spectra of amorphous and crystalline ice mixtures and a laboratory spectrum of crystalline ice. We next analyze the JIRAM data and, through Bayesian model comparisons, find that a two-component intimately mixed model (TC-IM model) of amorphous and crystalline ice is strongly preferred (at 26σ confidence) over a two-component model of the same species but where their spectra are areally/linearly mixed. We also find that the TC-IM model is strongly preferred (at > 30σ confidence) over single-component models with only amorphous or crystalline ice, indicating the presence of both these phases of water ice in the data. For the highest SNR estimates of the JIRAM data, the TC-IM model solution corresponds to a mixture with a very large number density fraction (99.952 +/- 0.001 \%) of small (23.12 +/- 1.01 microns) amorphous ice grains, and a very small fraction (0.048 +/- 0.001 \%) of large (565.34 +/- 1.01 microns) crystalline ice grains. The overabundance of small amorphous ice grains we find is consistent with previous studies. The maximum-likelihood spectrum of the TC-IM model, however, is in tension with the data in the regions around 2.5 and 3.6 μm, and indicates the presence of non-ice components not currently included in our model, primarily due to the limited availability of cryogenic optical constants.

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