arXiv subjects

Sacha Sinet

Publications and source records attributed to Sacha Sinet.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A place for stabilization alongside tipping cascades: the AMOC-cryosphere system

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and cryosphere are central to tipping-point research, where their interactions are typically framed as pathways for cascading transitions. Here, I review evidence that these interactions can also oppose change, affecting its magnitude and timing or, in some cases, whether a transition occurs at all. I argue that a more complete assessment of tipping risk requires progress on three fronts: systematic attention to stabilizing alongside destabilizing dynamics, conceptual frameworks that accommodate competing and context-dependent effects, and methods to detect, anticipate, and attribute stabilization.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

A Criterion for Safe Overshoot in Coupled Tipping Systems

Abrupt transitions are a central concern in climate and ecological research, and may arise when critical thresholds known as tipping points are crossed. However, previous work has shown that finite-time overshoots of tipping points can be safe, and that such behavior is captured by an inverse-square-law criterion when overshoots are sufficiently small and slow. So far studied in isolated systems with external drivers, (un)safe overshoots may also emerge from interactions between subsystems. Here, we investigate safe-overshoot phenomena in unidirectionally coupled slow-fast systems featuring both nonlinear interactions and coupling through time-derivatives. Specifically, we derive a criterion for the occurrence of safe overshoots analogous to the inverse-square law for isolated systems, but adapted to interactive settings, and expressed explicitly in terms of the timescale separation and coupling strength between subsystems. We illustrate these results using two conceptual models in which the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation interacts with either the Amazon rainforest or the Greenland Ice Sheet.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2025

West Antarctic Meltwater can Prevent an AMOC Collapse

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and polar ice sheets are coupled tipping elements, allowing for potential cascading tipping events in which tipping is facilitated by their mutual interactions. However, while an AMOC destabilization driven by Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) meltwater release is well documented, the consequences of a West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) tipping on the AMOC remain unclear. In the Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity CLIMBER-X, we perform experiments where meltwater fluxes representing plausible tipping trajectories of the GIS and WAIS are applied. We find that WAIS meltwater input can increase the AMOC resilience to GIS meltwater. In particular, we show that this stabilizing effect can cause the AMOC recovery and, for the first time in a comprehensive model, totally prevent an AMOC collapse. Moreover, we find this stabilzation to occur for ice sheet tipping trajectories that are relevant under high future greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

physics.ao-ph↗