arXiv subjects

Samet Oymak

Publications and source records attributed to Samet Oymak.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Identifying Trustworthiness Challenges in Deep Learning Models for Continental-Scale Water Quality Prediction

Water quality is foundational to environmental sustainability, ecosystem resilience, and public health. Deep learning offers transformative potential for large-scale water quality prediction and scientific insights generation. However, their widespread adoption in high-stakes operational decision-making, such as pollution mitigation and equitable resource allocation, is prevented by unresolved trustworthiness challenges, including performance disparity, robustness, uncertainty, interpretability, generalizability, and reproducibility. In this work, we present a multi-dimensional, quantitative evaluation of trustworthiness benchmarking three state-of-the-art deep learning architectures: recurrent (LSTM), operator-learning (DeepONet), and transformer-based (Informer), trained on 37 years of data from 482 U.S. basins to predict 20 water quality variables. Our investigation reveals systematic performance disparities tied to process complexity, data availability, and basin heterogeneity. Management-critical variables remain the least predictable and most uncertain. Robustness tests reveal pronounced sensitivity to outliers and corrupted targets; notably, the architecture with the strongest baseline performance (LSTM) proves most vulnerable under data corruption. Attribution analyses align for simple variables but diverge for nutrients, underscoring the need for multi-method interpretability. Spatial generalization to ungauged basins remains poor across all models. This work serves as a timely call to action for advancing trustworthy data-driven methods for water resources management and provides a pathway to offering critical insights for researchers, decision-makers, and practitioners seeking to leverage artificial intelligence (AI) responsibly in environmental management.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Identification and Adaptive Control of Markov Jump Systems: Sample Complexity and Regret Bounds

Learning how to effectively control unknown dynamical systems is crucial for intelligent autonomous systems. This task becomes a significant challenge when the underlying dynamics are changing with time. Motivated by this challenge, this paper considers the problem of controlling an unknown Markov jump linear system (MJS) to optimize a quadratic objective. By taking a model-based perspective, we consider identification-based adaptive control of MJSs. We first provide a system identification algorithm for MJS to learn the dynamics in each mode as well as the Markov transition matrix, underlying the evolution of the mode switches, from a single trajectory of the system states, inputs, and modes. Through martingale-based arguments, sample complexity of this algorithm is shown to be $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{T})$. We then propose an adaptive control scheme that performs system identification together with certainty equivalent control to adapt the controllers in an episodic fashion. Combining our sample complexity results with recent perturbation results for certainty equivalent control, we prove that when the episode lengths are appropriately chosen, the proposed adaptive control scheme achieves $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret, which can be improved to $\mathcal{O}(polylog(T))$ with partial knowledge of the system. Our proof strategy introduces innovations to handle Markovian jumps and a weaker notion of stability common in MJSs. Our analysis provides insights into system theoretic quantities that affect learning accuracy and control performance. Numerical simulations are presented to further reinforce these insights.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

FLASH: Federated Learning Across Simultaneous Heterogeneities

The key premise of federated learning (FL) is to train ML models across a diverse set of data-owners (clients), without exchanging local data. An overarching challenge to this date is client heterogeneity, which may arise not only from variations in data distribution, but also in data quality, as well as compute/communication latency. An integrated view of these diverse and concurrent sources of heterogeneity is critical; for instance, low-latency clients may have poor data quality, and vice versa. In this work, we propose FLASH(Federated Learning Across Simultaneous Heterogeneities), a lightweight and flexible client selection algorithm that outperforms state-of-the-art FL frameworks under extensive sources of heterogeneity, by trading-off the statistical information associated with the client's data quality, data distribution, and latency. FLASH is the first method, to our knowledge, for handling all these heterogeneities in a unified manner. To do so, FLASH models the learning dynamics through contextual multi-armed bandits (CMAB) and dynamically selects the most promising clients. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that FLASH achieves substantial and consistent improvements over state-of-the-art baselines -- as much as 10% in absolute accuracy -- thanks to its unified approach. Importantly, FLASH also outperforms federated aggregation methods that are designed to handle highly heterogeneous settings and even enjoys a performance boost when integrated with them.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Extrapolation by Association: Length Generalization Transfer in Transformers

Transformer language models have demonstrated impressive generalization capabilities in natural language domains, yet we lack a fine-grained understanding of how such generalization arises. In this paper, we investigate length generalization--the ability to extrapolate from shorter to longer inputs--through the lens of \textit{task association}. We find that length generalization can be \textit{transferred} across related tasks. That is, training a model with a longer and related auxiliary task can lead it to generalize to unseen and longer inputs from some other target task. We demonstrate this length generalization transfer across diverse algorithmic tasks, including arithmetic operations, string transformations, and maze navigation. Our results show that transformer models can inherit generalization capabilities from similar tasks when trained jointly. Moreover, we observe similar transfer effects in pretrained language models, suggesting that pretraining equips models with reusable computational scaffolding that facilitates extrapolation in downstream settings. Finally, we provide initial mechanistic evidence that length generalization transfer correlates with the re-use of the same attention heads between the tasks. Together, our findings deepen our understanding of how transformers generalize to out-of-distribution inputs and highlight the compositional reuse of inductive structure across tasks.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Attention with Trained Embeddings Provably Selects Important Tokens

Token embeddings play a crucial role in language modeling but, despite this practical relevance, their theoretical understanding remains limited. Our paper addresses the gap by characterizing the structure of embeddings obtained via gradient descent. Specifically, we consider a one-layer softmax attention model with a linear head for binary classification, i.e., $\texttt{Softmax}( p^\top E_X^\top ) E_X v = \frac{ \sum_{i=1}^T \exp(p^\top E_{x_i}) E_{x_i}^\top v}{\sum_{j=1}^T \exp(p^\top E_{x_{j}}) }$, where $E_X = [ E_{x_1} , \dots, E_{x_T} ]^\top$ contains the embeddings of the input sequence, $p$ is the embedding of the $\mathrm{\langle cls \rangle}$ token and $v$ the output vector. First, we show that, already after a single step of gradient training with the logistic loss, the embeddings $E_X$ capture the importance of tokens in the dataset by aligning with the output vector $v$ proportionally to the frequency with which the corresponding tokens appear in the dataset. Then, after training $p$ via gradient flow until convergence, the softmax selects the important tokens in the sentence (i.e., those that are predictive of the label), and the resulting $\mathrm{\langle cls \rangle}$ embedding maximizes the margin for such a selection. Experiments on real-world datasets (IMDB, Yelp) exhibit a phenomenology close to that unveiled by our theory.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

BREAD: Branched Rollouts from Expert Anchors Bridge SFT & RL for Reasoning

Small language models (SLMs) struggle to learn complex reasoning behaviors, especially when high-quality traces are scarce or difficult to learn from. The standard training approach combines a supervised fine-tuning (SFT) stage, often to distill capabilities of a larger model, followed by a reinforcement learning (RL)stage such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). In this paper, we investigate the fundamental limitations of this SFT + RL paradigm and propose methods to overcome them. Under a suitable theoretical model, we demonstrate that the SFT + RL strategy can fail completely when (1) the expert's traces are too difficult for the small model to express, or (2) the small model's initialization has exponentially small likelihood of success. To address these, we introduce BREAD: a GRPO variant that unifies the SFT and RL stages via partial expert guidance and branched rollouts. When self-generated traces fail, BREAD adaptively inserts short expert prefixes/hints, allowing the small model to complete the rest of the reasoning path, and ensuring that each update includes at least one successful trace. This mechanism both densifies the reward signal and induces a natural learning curriculum. BREAD requires fewer than 40% of ground-truth traces, consistently outperforming standard GRPO while speeding up the training by about 3 times. Importantly, we demonstrate that BREAD helps the model solve problems that are otherwise unsolvable by the SFT + RL strategy, highlighting how branched rollouts and expert guidance can substantially boost SLM reasoning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Making Small Language Models Efficient Reasoners: Intervention, Supervision, Reinforcement

Recent research enhances language model reasoning by scaling test-time compute via longer chain-of-thought traces. This often improves accuracy but also introduces redundancy and high computational cost, especially for small language models distilled with supervised fine-tuning (SFT). In this work, we propose new algorithms to improve token-efficient reasoning with small-scale models by effectively trading off accuracy and computation. We first show that the post-SFT model fails to determine the optimal stopping point of the reasoning process, resulting in verbose and repetitive outputs. Verbosity also significantly varies across wrong vs correct responses. To address these issues, we propose two solutions: (1) Temperature scaling (TS) to control the stopping point for the thinking phase and thereby trace length, and (2) TLDR: a length-regularized reinforcement learning method based on GRPO that facilitates multi-level trace length control (e.g. short, medium, long reasoning). Experiments on four reasoning benchmarks, MATH500, AMC, AIME24 and OlympiadBench, demonstrate that TS is highly effective compared to s1's budget forcing approach and TLDR significantly improves token efficiency by about 50% with minimal to no accuracy loss over the SFT baseline. Moreover, TLDR also facilitates flexible control over the response length, offering a practical and effective solution for token-efficient reasoning in small models. Ultimately, our work reveals the importance of stopping time control, highlights shortcomings of pure SFT, and provides effective algorithmic recipes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Gating is Weighting: Understanding Gated Linear Attention through In-context Learning

Linear attention methods offer a compelling alternative to softmax attention due to their efficiency in recurrent decoding. Recent research has focused on enhancing standard linear attention by incorporating gating while retaining its computational benefits. Such Gated Linear Attention (GLA) architectures include competitive models such as Mamba and RWKV. In this work, we investigate the in-context learning capabilities of the GLA model and make the following contributions. We show that a multilayer GLA can implement a general class of Weighted Preconditioned Gradient Descent (WPGD) algorithms with data-dependent weights. These weights are induced by the gating mechanism and the input, enabling the model to control the contribution of individual tokens to prediction. To further understand the mechanics of this weighting, we introduce a novel data model with multitask prompts and characterize the optimization landscape of learning a WPGD algorithm. Under mild conditions, we establish the existence and uniqueness (up to scaling) of a global minimum, corresponding to a unique WPGD solution. Finally, we translate these findings to explore the optimization landscape of GLA and shed light on how gating facilitates context-aware learning and when it is provably better than vanilla linear attention.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Provable Benefits of Task-Specific Prompts for In-context Learning

The in-context learning capabilities of modern language models have motivated a deeper mathematical understanding of sequence models. A line of recent work has shown that linear attention models can emulate projected gradient descent iterations to implicitly learn the task vector from the data provided in the context window. In this work, we consider a novel setting where the global task distribution can be partitioned into a union of conditional task distributions. We then examine the use of task-specific prompts and prediction heads for learning the prior information associated with the conditional task distribution using a one-layer attention model. Our results on loss landscape show that task-specific prompts facilitate a covariance-mean decoupling where prompt-tuning explains the conditional mean of the distribution whereas the variance is learned/explained through in-context learning. Incorporating task-specific head further aids this process by entirely decoupling estimation of mean and variance components. This covariance-mean perspective similarly explains how jointly training prompt and attention weights can provably help over fine-tuning after pretraining.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

High-dimensional Analysis of Knowledge Distillation: Weak-to-Strong Generalization and Scaling Laws

A growing number of machine learning scenarios rely on knowledge distillation where one uses the output of a surrogate model as labels to supervise the training of a target model. In this work, we provide a sharp characterization of this process for ridgeless, high-dimensional regression, under two settings: (i) model shift, where the surrogate model is arbitrary, and (ii) distribution shift, where the surrogate model is the solution of empirical risk minimization with out-of-distribution data. In both cases, we characterize the precise risk of the target model through non-asymptotic bounds in terms of sample size and data distribution under mild conditions. As a consequence, we identify the form of the optimal surrogate model, which reveals the benefits and limitations of discarding weak features in a data-dependent fashion. In the context of weak-to-strong (W2S) generalization, this has the interpretation that (i) W2S training, with the surrogate as the weak model, can provably outperform training with strong labels under the same data budget, but (ii) it is unable to improve the data scaling law. We validate our results on numerical experiments both on ridgeless regression and on neural network architectures.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

TimePFN: Effective Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Synthetic Data

The diversity of time series applications and scarcity of domain-specific data highlight the need for time-series models with strong few-shot learning capabilities. In this work, we propose a novel training scheme and a transformer-based architecture, collectively referred to as TimePFN, for multivariate time-series (MTS) forecasting. TimePFN is based on the concept of Prior-data Fitted Networks (PFN), which aims to approximate Bayesian inference. Our approach consists of (1) generating synthetic MTS data through diverse Gaussian process kernels and the linear coregionalization method, and (2) a novel MTS architecture capable of utilizing both temporal and cross-channel dependencies across all input patches. We evaluate TimePFN on several benchmark datasets and demonstrate that it outperforms the existing state-of-the-art models for MTS forecasting in both zero-shot and few-shot settings. Notably, fine-tuning TimePFN with as few as 500 data points nearly matches full dataset training error, and even 50 data points yield competitive results. We also find that TimePFN exhibits strong univariate forecasting performance, attesting to its generalization ability. Overall, this work unlocks the power of synthetic data priors for MTS forecasting and facilitates strong zero- and few-shot forecasting performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Efficient Contextual LLM Cascades through Budget-Constrained Policy Learning

Recent successes in natural language processing have led to the proliferation of large language models (LLMs) by multiple providers. Each LLM offering has different inference accuracy, monetary cost, and latency, and their accuracy further depends on the exact wording of the question (i.e., the specific prompt). At the same time, users often have a limit on monetary budget and latency to answer all their questions, and they do not know which LLMs to choose for each question to meet their accuracy and long term budget requirements. To navigate this rich design space, we propose TREACLE ($\underline{T}$hrifty $\underline{Rea}$soning via $\underline{C}$ontext-Aware $\underline{L}$LM and Prompt S$\underline{e}$lection), a reinforcement learning policy that jointly selects the model and prompting scheme while respecting the user's monetary cost and latency constraints. TREACLE uses the problem context, including question text embeddings (reflecting the type or difficulty of a query) and the response history (reflecting the consistency of previous responses) to make smart decisions. Our evaluations on standard reasoning datasets (GSM8K, CSQA, and LLC) with various LLMs and prompts show that TREACLE enables cost savings of up to 85% compared to baselines, while maintaining high accuracy. Importantly, it provides the user with the ability to gracefully trade off accuracy for cost.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Selective Attention: Enhancing Transformer through Principled Context Control

The attention mechanism within the transformer architecture enables the model to weigh and combine tokens based on their relevance to the query. While self-attention has enjoyed major success, it notably treats all queries $q$ in the same way by applying the mapping $V^\top\text{softmax}(Kq)$, where $V,K$ are the value and key embeddings respectively. In this work, we argue that this uniform treatment hinders the ability to control contextual sparsity and relevance. As a solution, we introduce the $\textit{Selective Self-Attention}$ (SSA) layer that augments the softmax nonlinearity with a principled temperature scaling strategy. By controlling temperature, SSA adapts the contextual sparsity of the attention map to the query embedding and its position in the context window. Through theory and experiments, we demonstrate that this alleviates attention dilution, aids the optimization process, and enhances the model's ability to control softmax spikiness of individual queries. We also incorporate temperature scaling for value embeddings and show that it boosts the model's ability to suppress irrelevant/noisy tokens. Notably, SSA is a lightweight method which introduces less than 0.5% new parameters through a weight-sharing strategy and can be fine-tuned on existing LLMs. Extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate that SSA-equipped models achieve a noticeable and consistent accuracy improvement on language modeling benchmarks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

CONTRAST: Continual Multi-source Adaptation to Dynamic Distributions

Adapting to dynamic data distributions is a practical yet challenging task. One effective strategy is to use a model ensemble, which leverages the diverse expertise of different models to transfer knowledge to evolving data distributions. However, this approach faces difficulties when the dynamic test distribution is available only in small batches and without access to the original source data. To address the challenge of adapting to dynamic distributions in such practical settings, we propose Continual Multi-source Adaptation to Dynamic Distributions (CONTRAST), a novel method that optimally combines multiple source models to adapt to the dynamic test data. CONTRAST has two distinguishing features. First, it efficiently computes the optimal combination weights to combine the source models to adapt to the test data distribution continuously as a function of time. Second, it identifies which of the source model parameters to update so that only the model which is most correlated to the target data is adapted, leaving the less correlated ones untouched; this mitigates the issue of ``forgetting" the source model parameters by focusing only on the source model that exhibits the strongest correlation with the test batch distribution. Through theoretical analysis we show that the proposed method is able to optimally combine the source models and prioritize updates to the model least prone to forgetting. Experimental analysis on diverse datasets demonstrates that the combination of multiple source models does at least as well as the best source (with hindsight knowledge), and performance does not degrade as the test data distribution changes over time (robust to forgetting).

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Everything Everywhere All at Once: LLMs can In-Context Learn Multiple Tasks in Superposition

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable in-context learning (ICL) capabilities. In this study, we explore a surprising phenomenon related to ICL: LLMs can perform multiple, computationally distinct ICL tasks simultaneously, during a single inference call, a capability we term "task superposition". We provide empirical evidence of this phenomenon across various LLM families and scales and show that this phenomenon emerges even if we train the model to in-context learn one task at a time. We offer theoretical explanations that this capability is well within the expressive power of transformers. We also explore how LLMs internally compose task vectors during superposition. Furthermore, we show that larger models can solve more ICL tasks in parallel, and better calibrate their output distribution. Our findings offer insights into the latent capabilities of LLMs, further substantiate the perspective of "LLMs as superposition of simulators", and raise questions about the mechanisms enabling simultaneous task execution.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Fine-grained Analysis of In-context Linear Estimation: Data, Architecture, and Beyond

Recent research has shown that Transformers with linear attention are capable of in-context learning (ICL) by implementing a linear estimator through gradient descent steps. However, the existing results on the optimization landscape apply under stylized settings where task and feature vectors are assumed to be IID and the attention weights are fully parameterized. In this work, we develop a stronger characterization of the optimization and generalization landscape of ICL through contributions on architectures, low-rank parameterization, and correlated designs: (1) We study the landscape of 1-layer linear attention and 1-layer H3, a state-space model. Under a suitable correlated design assumption, we prove that both implement 1-step preconditioned gradient descent. We show that thanks to its native convolution filters, H3 also has the advantage of implementing sample weighting and outperforming linear attention in suitable settings. (2) By studying correlated designs, we provide new risk bounds for retrieval augmented generation (RAG) and task-feature alignment which reveal how ICL sample complexity benefits from distributional alignment. (3) We derive the optimal risk for low-rank parameterized attention weights in terms of covariance spectrum. Through this, we also shed light on how LoRA can adapt to a new distribution by capturing the shift between task covariances. Experimental results corroborate our theoretical findings. Overall, this work explores the optimization and risk landscape of ICL in practically meaningful settings and contributes to a more thorough understanding of its mechanics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

On the Power of Convolution Augmented Transformer

The transformer architecture has catalyzed revolutionary advances in language modeling. However, recent architectural recipes, such as state-space models, have bridged the performance gap. Motivated by this, we examine the benefits of Convolution-Augmented Transformer (CAT) for recall, copying, and length generalization tasks. CAT incorporates convolutional filters in the K/Q/V embeddings of an attention layer. Through CAT, we show that the locality of the convolution synergizes with the global view of the attention. Unlike comparable architectures, such as Mamba or transformer, CAT can provably solve the associative recall (AR) and copying tasks using a single layer while also enjoying guaranteed length generalization. We also establish computational tradeoffs between convolution and attention by characterizing how convolution can mitigate the need for full attention by summarizing the context window and creating salient summary tokens to attend. Evaluations on real datasets corroborate our findings and demonstrate that CAT and its variations indeed enhance the language modeling performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Can Transformers Learn Optimal Filtering for Unknown Systems?

Transformer models have shown great success in natural language processing; however, their potential remains mostly unexplored for dynamical systems. In this work, we investigate the optimal output estimation problem using transformers, which generate output predictions using all the past ones. Particularly, we train the transformer using various distinct systems and then evaluate the performance on unseen systems with unknown dynamics. Empirically, the trained transformer adapts exceedingly well to different unseen systems and even matches the optimal performance given by the Kalman filter for linear systems. In more complex settings with non-i.i.d. noise, time-varying dynamics, and nonlinear dynamics like a quadrotor system with unknown parameters, transformers also demonstrate promising results. To support our experimental findings, we provide statistical guarantees that quantify the amount of training data required for the transformer to achieve a desired excess risk. Finally, we point out some limitations by identifying two classes of problems that lead to degraded performance, highlighting the need for caution when using transformers for control and estimation.

eess.SY↗