arXiv subjects

Sandareka Wickramanayake

Publications and source records attributed to Sandareka Wickramanayake.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Forecasting Weather-Driven Price Dynamics Across Sri Lankan Tea Market Catalogues

The Colombo Tea Auction (CTA) plays a vital role in determining global tea prices, yet the relationship between local weather conditions and price behavior across different tea catalogues has not been thoroughly explored. In this study, we develop a novel, structured dataset by extracting information from 105 weekly broker reports spanning late 2023 to 2026, and combined with region-specific weather data. Our analysis focuses on four main tea catalogues of Sri Lankan tea: High Grown, Low Grown, Off-Grade, and Dust. To better understand the factors influencing tea prices, we apply Granger causality analysis alongside tree-based machine learning models: Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and Gradient Boosting. Our results show that while market dynamics are primary drivers, weather conditions also have significant effects. Notably, Low Grown tea shows strong sensitivity to precipitation and sunshine duration (p<0.05) across 1-3-week lags. Off-Grade and Dust catalogues also exhibit significant responses to temperature variations. Catalogue-specific modelling outperformed unified approaches, with LightGBM emerging as the superior model for three out of four catalogues. Overall, this study highlights the importance of considering both localized weather patterns and catalogue-level differences when forecasting tea prices, offering a more precise and practical framework for the tea industry.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Identity by Design, Demographics by Accident: Demographic Leakage and Suppression in Behavioral Biometric Embeddings

Behavioral biometric authentication (BBA) systems use deep learning models to transform biometric signals, such as eye movements, voice, keystroke/touchstroke dynamics, and gait, into identity embeddings for user authentication. While designed to encode identity, these embeddings may inadvertently reveal sensitive demographic attributes, including gender, age, and height. Consequently, an adversary with access to the authentication model can infer demographic information from biometric signals, including those of users unseen during training or enrollment. In this paper, we present the first systematic audit of demographic leakage in BBA systems, evaluating 11 models across 9 datasets spanning four biometric modalities. We further benchmark four post-hoc suppression methods-Incremental Variable Elimination (IVE), Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC), Adversarial Encoder-Decoder (AED), and Protected Attribute Suppression System (PASS) to assess their ability to mitigate demographic leakage while preserving authentication utility. Our analysis reveals substantial variation in leakage and suppressibility across modalities, model architectures, and learning objectives. While voice embeddings exhibit high leakage that can be effectively suppressed, keystroke/touchstroke embeddings exhibit lower leakage but are considerably more difficult to sanitize. These findings highlight a fundamental privacy risk in behavioral biometric authentication and provide insights into the factors governing demographic information suppressibility.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2026

Trilingual Topic Modeling of Sri Lankan Parliamentary Debates

Sri Lankan parliamentary debates (Hansards) constitute a trilingual corpus of speeches in Sinhala, Tamil, and English, including code-mixed content, yet remain inaccessible to standard NLP pipelines due to layout-complex PDFs, multilingual scripts, and agglutinative morphology. We present an end-to-end framework that addresses these challenges through LLM-based text extraction followed by a multilingual embedding and density-based clustering pipeline for topic modeling. A hybrid semantic-lexical extension, BiTopic, is further explored to improve interpretability and recover speeches otherwise discarded as noise. Applied to 19,553 speeches spanning 2017-2026, the pipeline recovers 30 macro-topics achieving a cluster purity (BCP) of 0.673, whose temporal trajectories align unsupervised with major national events including the 2019 Easter Sunday attacks and the 2022 economic crisis. Traditional LDA fails on this corpus due to cross-lingual fragmentation, whereas the proposed approach successfully identifies thematic structure across all three languages without supervision.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

When Prices Double in a Week: Forecasting of Agricultural Volatility in Import-Isolated Markets

Vegetable prices in Sri Lanka are highly volatile because the market is largely import-isolated, so supply disruptions quickly drive prices up. This study develops a machine learning framework to forecast such volatility by incorporating supply-chain-aware features and explicitly modelling the country's two cultivation seasons, Maha (October-April) and Yala (May-September). An integrated dataset was constructed by combining retail and farmer-gate prices with origin-aligned weather variables, diesel costs, and exchange rates across 12 vegetable varieties and 14 market centres from 2013 to 2019. A gradient-boosted ensemble model (XGBoost and LightGBM) was trained and optimised using Optuna, and unified and season-specific configurations were compared. Results show that season-specific models improve within-season fit, with the Yala-specific model achieving the highest R2 of 0.9420 (95% CI [0.690, 1.000]), while the unified model delivers the best overall predictive accuracy of 90.84% (95% CI [88.34%, 91.52%]) and an R2 of 0.9281 (95% CI [0.760, 1.000]). Notably, the unified model maintains 85.96% accuracy on a completely unseen 2024 hyperinflationary period without retraining, successfully tracking major price surges. These findings suggest that agricultural price movements in import-constrained markets are meaningfully predictable when models capture supply-chain dynamics, offering practical value for early warning and decision making by farmers, traders, and policymakers. Existing studies on Sri Lankan vegetable prices are confined to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) applied to single markets, with no supply-chain features, seasonal segmentation, or cross-regime validation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Monsoon Mayhem to Market Waves: Forecasting Fisheries Resilience in Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka's fisheries sector is important for jobs and food supply. Between 2019 and 2025, it faced several major problems at the same time, and how these events together affected fish production and prices is still not well understood. This study develops a framework to connect weather changes, major disruption events, fish production, and prices, with the goal of helping policymakers, traders, and supply chain managers make better decisions. Seasonal patterns are studied using STL decomposition. Spearman lag correlation is used to find delayed effects of climate on production. Interrupted Time Series (ITS) regression measures the impact of major events. SARIMAX models predict monthly production and prices. Hotspot detection identifies unusual patterns. The results show that marine and inland fisheries behave differently in terms of seasons and climate effects. Major disruptions caused different levels of impact, and in some cases, one sector helped compensate for another. These findings can support better planning, for example, improving infrastructure in high-risk areas, strengthening cold storage systems, and using early warning alerts for unusual events. Price forecasting tools should be used as decision-support tools, not as direct market signals.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Environmental Drivers of Respiratory Disease: A District Level Analysis

Sri Lanka has experienced a decade of progressive forest degradation and rising atmospheric pollution, yet district-level respiratory admissions have paradoxically declined, pointing to the confounding role of healthcare access. This study addresses that gap by constructing an 11-year (2014-2024) panel dataset across all 25 administrative districts, integrating satellite-derived vegetation indices, fire radiative power, pollutant concentrations (particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2)), carbon flux metrics and population-normalized respiratory admission rates. Two temporally validated XGBoost models were created for annual district-level respiratory rate (R^2 = 0.937) and monthly PM2.5 concentration (R^2 = 0.976) with generalization validated in 21 out of 25 districts (Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) <= 20%). Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis established that cumulative air quality burden is the overwhelming driver of respiratory rate variance (80.1%), ahead of forest degradation (15.6%) and fire activity (4.3%). The Forest-Air-Health (FAH) Risk Index used these SHAP-derived weights to find the districts with the highest risk: Colombo (FAH = 0.802), Gampaha (0.708), and Kalutara (0.682). These findings present the inaugural evidence-based, district-level framework correlating environmental degradation with respiratory health in Sri Lanka, establishing a quantitative basis for focused public health and environmental policy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Golden Hour Divide: Trauma Care Accessibility and Resource Vulnerability in Sri Lanka

Timely intensive care dictates survival, yet emergency infrastructure remains unevenly distributed across Sri Lanka. While pre-hospital services have expanded, the transition to definitive care remains a critical bottleneck. This study evaluates national emergency resilience by quantifying the gap between clinical demand and the availability of specialized resources across all 25 districts. Using the latest national epidemiological data and terrain-aware H3 hexagonal modeling, we analyzed accessibility for seven critical conditions based on spatial gaps, clinical need-gaps, lethality, coverage, and resource availability. Based on these metrics, unsupervised K-Means clustering was applied to categorize districts into four policy-actionable archetypes: Critical Structural Exclusion, Institutional Mirages, Operational Capacity Strain, and High-Resilience Benchmarks. Our study suggests that severe service deficits exist in the Northern and Eastern provinces, where spatial gaps exceed 70%, rendering the Golden Hour operationally impossible. Notably, specialist scarcity drives systemic pressure more than bed capacity; underserved regions effectively function as institutional mirages. This study suggests that improving accessibility by 25% in high-priority clusters would reduce the national need-gap by 9.65%, providing a roadmap for the strategic redistribution of specialists to ensure healthcare equity.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

How Environment and Urbanization Shape Bird Diversity in Sri Lanka

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of bird diversity across Sri Lanka by integrating spatial, temporal, and environmental data. Bird observation records were combined with environmental variables, including weather conditions, air pollution, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), land cover, elevation, and Artificial Light At Night (ALAN), and rigorously preprocessed to ensure data quality. Spatial analyses were conducted on multiple grid scales (2 km, 5 km, 10 km) to evaluate patterns in species richness while minimizing sampling bias through spatial thinning. Temporal trends were assessed using effort-corrected metrics including rarefied richness and occupancy rates to account for variations in observation effort over time. Environmental drivers of bird diversity were examined using multivariate statistical models, including Poisson Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) and correlation analyses, to identify key associations between ecological factors and species richness. Additionally, community structure, dominance patterns, and beta diversity were analyzed to understand variations in species composition across regions and time. The study found that land-cover type is a stronger predictor of bird diversity than individual continuous variables such as NDVI or temperature alone. Urbanization, measured by ALAN, exhibits nuanced scale-dependent effects, supporting high abundances of a few generalist species while reducing overall richness. The findings provide actionable insights into the patterns and drivers of avian diversity in Sri Lanka, offering a scalable and reproducible framework for biodiversity research and conservation planning.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2026

Fault of Our Stars: Behavioral Drivers of Rating-Sentiment Incongruence

When people share experiences online, they often express thoughts in two ways: a star rating and a written review. In sentiment analysis, ratings are widely used as convenient weak labels for textual sentiment, yet whether the two actually agree is rarely questioned. This study investigates sentiment-rating incongruence, where the sentiment expressed in review text differs from the sentiment implied by the assigned star rating, in Sri Lankan tourism attraction reviews. A dataset of 16,156 reviews from 2010 to 2023 is analyzed using a transformer-based sentiment pipeline that derives textual sentiment independently of assigned ratings. Incongruence occurs in 18.6% of reviews and falls into six directional patterns, with Conservative Rater and Obligatory 5-Star behaviors accounting for the majority of mismatches. Prevalence also varies across venue types, with museums showing the highest rates. Statistical tests, logistic regression, Random Forest, and SHAP analysis identify venue type, reviewer expertise, review length, and temporal factors as contributors to rating-text divergence. Overall, this study demonstrates that star ratings are not interchangeable with textual sentiment and should be validated before being treated as ground-truth labels in NLP.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

The Remittance Blueprint: Data-driven Intelligence for Sri Lanka

This study analyzes Sri Lankan migration and remittances over 32 years (1994-2025). Using a 384-month harmonized dataset, we apply exploratory data analysis, stationarity corrected time-series modeling (ADF, Johansen, VAR/VECM), and supervised learning. Results reveal remittance inflows are primarily driven by external macroeconomic variables, specifically exchange rate dynamics and global oil prices, rather than domestic indicators. Impulse response analysis confirms the asymmetric impact of currency depreciation and oil price shocks. Predictively, multivariate machine learning models outperform traditional univariate approaches; Ridge Regression achieves a 73.8% accuracy improvement over SARIMA (Annualized RMSE: USD 494.8 Mn). The optimized framework projects 2026 remittances at USD 9,001 million under stable conditions. These findings highlight the structural dependence of remittances on global economies, emphasizing the need for robust exchange rate policies, skilled migration, and formal financial channels to enhance long-term economic resilience.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

TopoCast: A Topological Fidelity Framework for Evaluating Transformer-Based Time Series Forecasting

Deep learning-based models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in Time Series Forecasting (TSF), yet their evaluation remains dominated by pointwise error metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), which quantify numerical accuracy but overlook structural properties of the forecast signal, including recurrent dynamics, oscillatory behavior, and phase alignment. As a result, forecasts exhibiting over-smoothing, phase shifts, or frequency distortions may achieve favorable error scores despite substantial structural degradation. To address this limitation, we propose TopoCast, a topology-driven framework for evaluating structural fidelity in TSF. TopoCast reconstructs phase-space representations of forecast and ground-truth sequences using Takens delay embedding and applies persistent homology to characterize their intrinsic dynamics. We derive four complementary topological fidelity measures from persistence diagrams and aggregate them into a Topological Fidelity Score (TFS). We further introduce dominant cycle overlap, a novel metric that maps persistent topological features to the temporal domain to assess whether dominant oscillatory patterns occur at the correct time points. Combined with TFS, this yields the Localized Topological Fidelity Score (LTFS), a phase-aware measure that captures temporal localization errors invisible to existing evaluation metrics. Experiments on five Transformer architectures across three real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that models with similar forecasting errors can exhibit markedly different structural fidelity profiles, revealing failure modes overlooked by conventional evaluation and highlighting the value of topology-aware forecast assessment.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

SEZ-HARN: Self-Explainable Zero-shot Human Activity Recognition Network

Human Activity Recognition (HAR), which uses data from Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) sensors, has many practical applications in healthcare and assisted living environments. However, its use in real-world scenarios has been limited by the lack of comprehensive IMU-based HAR datasets that cover a wide range of activities and the lack of transparency in existing HAR models. Zero-shot HAR (ZS-HAR) overcomes the data limitations, but current models struggle to explain their decisions, making them less transparent. This paper introduces a novel IMU-based ZS-HAR model called the Self-Explainable Zero-shot Human Activity Recognition Network (SEZ-HARN). It can recognize activities not encountered during training and provide skeleton videos to explain its decision-making process. We evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed SEZ-HARN on four benchmark datasets PAMAP2, DaLiAc, HTD-MHAD and MHealth and compare its performance against three state-of-the-art black-box ZS-HAR models. The experiment results demonstrate that SEZ-HARN produces realistic and understandable explanations while achieving competitive Zero-shot recognition accuracy. SEZ-HARN achieves a Zero-shot prediction accuracy within 3\% of the best-performing black-box model on PAMAP2 while maintaining comparable performance on the other three datasets.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

GAL-MAD: Towards Explainable Anomaly Detection in Microservice Applications Using Graph Attention Networks

The transition to microservices has revolutionized software architectures, offering enhanced scalability and modularity. However, the distributed and dynamic nature of microservices introduces complexities in ensuring system reliability, making anomaly detection crucial for maintaining performance and functionality. Anomalies stemming from network and performance issues must be swiftly identified and addressed. Existing anomaly detection techniques often rely on statistical models or machine learning methods that struggle with the high-dimensional, interdependent data inherent in microservice applications. Current techniques and available datasets predominantly focus on system traces and logs, limiting their ability to support advanced detection models. This paper addresses these gaps by introducing the RS-Anomic dataset generated using the open-source RobotShop microservice application. The dataset captures multivariate performance metrics and response times under normal and anomalous conditions, encompassing ten types of anomalies. We propose a novel anomaly detection model called Graph Attention and LSTM-based Microservice Anomaly Detection (GAL-MAD), leveraging Graph Attention and Long Short-Term Memory architectures to capture spatial and temporal dependencies in microservices. We utilize SHAP values to localize anomalous services and identify root causes to enhance explainability. Experimental results demonstrate that GAL-MAD outperforms state-of-the-art models on the RS-Anomic dataset, achieving higher accuracy and recall across varying anomaly rates. The explanations provide actionable insights into service anomalies, which benefits system administrators.

cs.SE↗

arXiv2024

KVC-onGoing: Keystroke Verification Challenge

This article presents the Keystroke Verification Challenge - onGoing (KVC-onGoing), on which researchers can easily benchmark their systems in a common platform using large-scale public databases, the Aalto University Keystroke databases, and a standard experimental protocol. The keystroke data consist of tweet-long sequences of variable transcript text from over 185,000 subjects, acquired through desktop and mobile keyboards simulating real-life conditions. The results on the evaluation set of KVC-onGoing have proved the high discriminative power of keystroke dynamics, reaching values as low as 3.33% of Equal Error Rate (EER) and 11.96% of False Non-Match Rate (FNMR) @1% False Match Rate (FMR) in the desktop scenario, and 3.61% of EER and 17.44% of FNMR @1% at FMR in the mobile scenario, significantly improving previous state-of-the-art results. Concerning demographic fairness, the analyzed scores reflect the subjects' age and gender to various extents, not negligible in a few cases. The framework runs on CodaLab.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2024

IEEE BigData 2023 Keystroke Verification Challenge (KVC)

This paper describes the results of the IEEE BigData 2023 Keystroke Verification Challenge (KVC), that considers the biometric verification performance of Keystroke Dynamics (KD), captured as tweet-long sequences of variable transcript text from over 185,000 subjects. The data are obtained from two of the largest public databases of KD up to date, the Aalto Desktop and Mobile Keystroke Databases, guaranteeing a minimum amount of data per subject, age and gender annotations, absence of corrupted data, and avoiding excessively unbalanced subject distributions with respect to the considered demographic attributes. Several neural architectures were proposed by the participants, leading to global Equal Error Rates (EERs) as low as 3.33% and 3.61% achieved by the best team respectively in the desktop and mobile scenario, outperforming the current state of the art biometric verification performance for KD. Hosted on CodaLab, the KVC will be made ongoing to represent a useful tool for the research community to compare different approaches under the same experimental conditions and to deepen the knowledge of the field.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

BUGSPHP: A dataset for Automated Program Repair in PHP

Automated Program Repair (APR) improves developer productivity by saving debugging and bug-fixing time. While APR has been extensively explored for C/C++ and Java programs, there is little research on bugs in PHP programs due to the lack of a benchmark PHP bug dataset. This is surprising given that PHP has been one of the most widely used server-side languages for over two decades, being used in a variety of contexts such as e-commerce, social networking, and content management. This paper presents a benchmark dataset of PHP bugs on real-world applications called BUGSPHP, which can enable research on analysis, testing, and repair for PHP programs. The dataset consists of training and test datasets, separately curated from GitHub and processed locally. The training dataset includes more than 600,000 bug-fixing commits. The test dataset contains 513 manually validated bug-fixing commits equipped with developer-provided test cases to assess patch correctness.

cs.SE↗

arXiv2023

BehaveFormer: A Framework with Spatio-Temporal Dual Attention Transformers for IMU enhanced Keystroke Dynamics

Continuous Authentication (CA) using behavioural biometrics is a type of biometric identification that recognizes individuals based on their unique behavioural characteristics, like their typing style. However, the existing systems that use keystroke or touch stroke data have limited accuracy and reliability. To improve this, smartphones' Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) sensors, which include accelerometers, gyroscopes, and magnetometers, can be used to gather data on users' behavioural patterns, such as how they hold their phones. Combining this IMU data with keystroke data can enhance the accuracy of behavioural biometrics-based CA. This paper proposes BehaveFormer, a new framework that employs keystroke and IMU data to create a reliable and accurate behavioural biometric CA system. It includes two Spatio-Temporal Dual Attention Transformer (STDAT), a novel transformer we introduce to extract more discriminative features from keystroke dynamics. Experimental results on three publicly available datasets (Aalto DB, HMOG DB, and HuMIdb) demonstrate that BehaveFormer outperforms the state-of-the-art behavioural biometric-based CA systems. For instance, on the HuMIdb dataset, BehaveFormer achieved an EER of 2.95\%. Additionally, the proposed STDAT has been shown to improve the BehaveFormer system even when only keystroke data is used. For example, on the Aalto DB dataset, BehaveFormer achieved an EER of 1.80\%. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed STDAT and the incorporation of IMU data for behavioural biometric authentication.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2021

Towards Fully Interpretable Deep Neural Networks: Are We There Yet?

Despite the remarkable performance, Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) behave as black-boxes hindering user trust in Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems. Research on opening black-box DNN can be broadly categorized into post-hoc methods and inherently interpretable DNNs. While many surveys have been conducted on post-hoc interpretation methods, little effort is devoted to inherently interpretable DNNs. This paper provides a review of existing methods to develop DNNs with intrinsic interpretability, with a focus on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). The aim is to understand the current progress towards fully interpretable DNNs that can cater to different interpretation requirements. Finally, we identify gaps in current work and suggest potential research directions.

cs.LG↗