arXiv subjects

Santo Fortunato

Publications and source records attributed to Santo Fortunato.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Epidemic spreading in group-structured populations

Individuals involved in common group activities/settings -- e.g., college students that are enrolled in the same class and/or live in the same dorm -- are exposed to recurrent contacts of physical proximity. These contacts are known to mediate the spread of an infectious disease, however, it is not obvious how the properties of the spreading process are determined by the structure of and the interrelation among the group settings that are at the root of those recurrent interactions. Here, we show that reshaping the organization of groups within a population can be used as an effective strategy to decrease the severity of an epidemic. Specifically, we show that when group structures are sufficiently correlated -- e.g., the likelihood for two students living in the same dorm to attend the same class is sufficiently high -- outbreaks are longer but milder than for uncorrelated group structures. Also, we show that the effectiveness of interventions for disease containment increases as the correlation among group structures increases. We demonstrate the practical relevance of our findings by taking advantage of data about housing and attendance of students at the Indiana University campus in Bloomington. By appropriately optimizing the assignment of students to dorms based on their enrollment, we are able to observe a two- to five-fold reduction in the severity of simulated epidemic processes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

What we should learn from pandemic publishing

Authors of COVID-19 papers produced during the pandemic were overwhelmingly not subject matter experts. Such a massive inflow of scholars from different expertise areas is both an asset and a potential problem. Domain-informed scientific collaboration is the key to preparing for future crises.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Parallel Algorithms for Median Consensus Clustering in Complex Networks

We develop an algorithm that finds the consensus of many different clustering solutions of a graph. We formulate the problem as a median set partitioning problem and propose a greedy optimization technique. Unlike other approaches that find median set partitions, our algorithm takes graph structure into account and finds a comparable quality solution much faster than the other approaches. For graphs with known communities, our consensus partition captures the actual community structure more accurately than alternative approaches. To make it applicable to large graphs, we remove sequential dependencies from our algorithm and design a parallel algorithm. Our parallel algorithm achieves 35x speedup when utilizing 64 processing cores for large real-world graphs from single-cell experiments.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2024

Iterative embedding and reweighting of complex networks reveals community structure

Graph embeddings learn the structure of networks and represent it in low-dimensional vector spaces. Community structure is one of the features that are recognized and reproduced by embeddings. We show that an iterative procedure, in which a graph is repeatedly embedded and its links are reweighted based on the geometric proximity between the nodes, reinforces intra-community links and weakens inter-community links, making the clusters of the initial network more visible and more easily detectable. The geometric separation between the communities can become so strong that even a very simple parsing of the links may recover the communities as isolated components with surprisingly high precision. Furthermore, when used as a pre-processing step, our embedding and reweighting procedure can improve the performance of traditional community detection algorithms.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Symmetry breaking in optimal transport networks

Despite its importance for practical applications, not much is known about the optimal shape of a network that connects in an efficient way a set of points. This problem can be formulated in terms of a multiplex network with a fast layer embedded in a slow one. To connect a pair of points, one can then use either the fast or slow layer, or both, with a switching cost when going from one layer to the other. We consider here distributions of points in spaces of arbitrary dimension d and search for the fast-layer network of given size that minimizes the average time to reach a central node. We discuss the d = 1 case analytically and the d > 1 case numerically, and show the existence of transitions when we vary the network size, the switching cost and/or the relative speed of the two layers. Surprisingly, there is a transition characterized by a symmetry breaking indicating that it is sometimes better to avoid serving a whole area in order to save on switching costs, at the expense of using more the slow layer. Our findings underscore the importance of considering switching costs while studying optimal network structures, as small variations of the cost can lead to strikingly dissimilar results. Finally, we discuss real-world subways and their efficiency for the cities of Atlanta, Boston, and Toronto. We find that real subways are farther away from the optimal shapes as traffic congestion increases.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Consistency pays off in science

The exponentially growing number of scientific papers stimulates a discussion on the interplay between quantity and quality in science. In particular, one may wonder which publication strategy may offer more chances of success: publishing lots of papers, producing a few hit papers, or something in between. Here we tackle this question by studying the scientific portfolios of Nobel Prize laureates. A comparative analysis of different citation-based indicators of individual impact suggests that the best path to success may rely on consistently producing high-quality work. Such a pattern is especially rewarded by a new metric, the $E$-index, which identifies excellence better than state-of-the-art measures.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Collaboration and topic switches in science

Collaboration is a key driver of science and innovation. Mainly motivated by the need to leverage different capacities and expertise to solve a scientific problem, collaboration is also an excellent source of information about the future behavior of scholars. In particular, it allows us to infer the likelihood that scientists choose future research directions via the intertwined mechanisms of selection and social influence. Here we thoroughly investigate the interplay between collaboration and topic switches. We find that the probability for a scholar to start working on a new topic increases with the number of previous collaborators, with a pattern showing that the effects of individual collaborators are not independent. The higher the productivity and the impact of authors, the more likely their coworkers will start working on new topics. The average number of coauthors per paper is also inversely related to the topic switch probability, suggesting a dilution of this effect as the number of collaborators increases.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Influence Maximization: Divide and Conquer

The problem of influence maximization, i.e., finding the set of nodes having maximal influence on a network, is of great importance for several applications. In the past two decades, many heuristic metrics to spot influencers have been proposed. Here, we introduce a framework to boost the performance of any such metric. The framework consists in dividing the network into sectors of influence, and then selecting the most influential nodes within these sectors. We explore three different methodologies to find sectors in a network: graph partitioning, graph hyperbolic embedding, and community structure. The framework is validated with a systematic analysis of real and synthetic networks. We show that the gain in performance generated by dividing a network into sectors before selecting the influential spreaders increases as the modularity and heterogeneity of the network increase. Also, we show that the division of the network into sectors can be efficiently performed in a time that scales linearly with the network size, thus making the framework applicable to large-scale influence maximization problems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

20 years of network community detection

A fundamental technical challenge in the analysis of network data is the automated discovery of communities - groups of nodes that are strongly connected or that share similar features or roles. In this commentary we review progress in the field over the last 20 years.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Robustness modularity in complex networks

A basic question in network community detection is how modular a given network is. This is usually addressed by evaluating the quality of partitions detected in the network. The Girvan-Newman (GN) modularity function is the standard way to make this assessment, but it has a number of drawbacks. Most importantly, it is not clearly interpretable, given that the measure can take relatively large values on partitions of random networks without communities. Here we propose a new measure based on the concept of robustness: modularity is the probability to find trivial partitions when the structure of the network is randomly perturbed. This concept can be implemented for any clustering algorithm capable of telling when a group structure is absent. Tests on artificial and real graphs reveal that robustness modularity can be used to assess and compare the strength of the community structure of different networks. We also introduce two other quality functions: modularity difference, a suitably normalized version of the GN modularity; information modularity, a measure of distance based on information compression. Both measures are strongly correlated with robustness modularity, and are promising options as well.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Detecting climate teleconnections with Granger causality

Climate system teleconnections are crucial for improving climate predictability, but difficult to quantify. Standard approaches to identify teleconnections are often based on correlations between time series. Here we present a novel method leveraging Granger causality, which can infer/detect relationships between any two fields. We compare teleconnections identified by correlation and Granger causality at different timescales. We find that both Granger causality and correlation consistently recover known seasonal precipitation responses to the sea surface temperature pattern associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Such findings are robust across multiple time resolutions. In addition, we identify candidates for unexplored teleconnection responses.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

Community detection in networks using graph embeddings

Graph embedding methods are becoming increasingly popular in the machine learning community, where they are widely used for tasks such as node classification and link prediction. Embedding graphs in geometric spaces should aid the identification of network communities as well, because nodes in the same community should be projected close to each other in the geometric space, where they can be detected via standard data clustering algorithms. In this paper, we test the ability of several graph embedding techniques to detect communities on benchmark graphs. We compare their performance against that of traditional community detection algorithms. We find that the performance is comparable, if the parameters of the embedding techniques are suitably chosen. However, the optimal parameter set varies with the specific features of the benchmark graphs, like their size, whereas popular community detection algorithms do not require any parameter. So it is not possible to indicate beforehand good parameter sets for the analysis of real networks. This finding, along with the high computational cost of embedding a network and grouping the points, suggests that, for community detection, current embedding techniques do not represent an improvement over network clustering algorithms.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Scientific elite revisited: Patterns of productivity, collaboration, authorship and impact

Throughout history, a relatively small number of individuals have made a profound and lasting impact on science and society. Despite long-standing, multi-disciplinary interests in understanding careers of elite scientists, there have been limited attempts for a quantitative, career-level analysis. Here, we leverage a comprehensive dataset we assembled, allowing us to trace the entire career histories of nearly all Nobel laureates in physics, chemistry, and physiology or medicine over the past century. We find that, although Nobel laureates were energetic producers from the outset, producing works that garner unusually high impact, their careers before winning the prize follow relatively similar patterns as ordinary scientists, being characterized by hot streaks and increasing reliance on collaborations. We also uncovered notable variations along their careers, often associated with the Nobel prize, including shifting coauthorship structure in the prize-winning work, and a significant but temporary dip in the impact of work they produce after winning the Nobel. Together, these results document quantitative patterns governing the careers of scientific elites, offering an empirical basis for a deeper understanding of the hallmarks of exceptional careers in science.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2019

Recency predicts bursts in the evolution of author citations

The citations process for scientific papers has been studied extensively. But while the citations accrued by authors are the sum of the citations of their papers, translating the dynamics of citation accumulation from the paper to the author level is not trivial. Here we conduct a systematic study of the evolution of author citations, and in particular their bursty dynamics. We find empirical evidence of a correlation between the number of citations most recently accrued by an author and the number of citations they receive in the future. Using a simple model where the probability for an author to receive new citations depends only on the number of citations collected in the previous 12-24 months, we are able to reproduce both the citation and burst size distributions of authors across multiple decades.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2019

Fast consensus clustering in complex networks

Algorithms for community detection are usually stochastic, leading to different partitions for different choices of random seeds. Consensus clustering has proven to be an effective technique to derive more stable and accurate partitions than the ones obtained by the direct application of the algorithm. However, the procedure requires the calculation of the consensus matrix, which can be quite dense if (some of) the clusters of the input partitions are large. Consequently, the complexity can get dangerously close to quadratic, which makes the technique inapplicable on large graphs. Here we present a fast variant of consensus clustering, which calculates the consensus matrix only on the links of the original graph and on a comparable number of additional node pairs, suitably chosen. This brings the complexity down to linear, while the performance remains comparable as the full technique. Therefore, our fast consensus clustering procedure can be applied on networks with millions of nodes and links.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Weight Thresholding on Complex Networks

Weight thresholding is a simple technique that aims at reducing the number of edges in weighted networks that are otherwise too dense for the application of standard graph theoretical methods. We show that the group structure of real weighted networks is very robust under weight thresholding, as it is maintained even when most of the edges are removed. This appears to be related to the correlation between topology and weight that characterizes real networks. On the other hand, the behavior of other properties is generally system dependent.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Multiresolution Consensus Clustering in Networks

Networks often exhibit structure at disparate scales. We propose a method for identifying community structure at different scales based on multiresolution modularity and consensus clustering. Our contribution consists of two parts. First, we propose a strategy for sampling the entire range of possible resolutions for the multiresolution modularity quality function. Our approach is directly based on the properties of modularity and, in particular, provides a natural way of avoiding the need to increase the resolution parameter by several orders of magnitude to break a few remaining small communities, necessitating the introduction of ad-hoc limits to the resolution range with standard sampling approaches. Second, we propose a hierarchical consensus clustering procedure, based on a modified modularity, that allows one to construct a hierarchical consensus structure given a set of input partitions. While here we are interested in its application to partitions sampled using multiresolution modularity, this consensus clustering procedure can be applied to the output of any clustering algorithm. As such, we see many potential applications of the individual parts of our multiresolution consensus clustering procedure in addition to using the procedure itself to identify hierarchical structure in networks.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Psychological and Personality Profiles of Political Extremists

Global recruitment into radical Islamic movements has spurred renewed interest in the appeal of political extremism. Is the appeal a rational response to material conditions or is it the expression of psychological and personality disorders associated with aggressive behavior, intolerance, conspiratorial imagination, and paranoia? Empirical answers using surveys have been limited by lack of access to extremist groups, while field studies have lacked psychological measures and failed to compare extremists with contrast groups. We revisit the debate over the appeal of extremism in the U.S. context by comparing publicly available Twitter messages written by over 355,000 political extremist followers with messages written by non-extremist U.S. users. Analysis of text-based psychological indicators supports the moral foundation theory which identifies emotion as a critical factor in determining political orientation of individuals. Extremist followers also differ from others in four of the Big Five personality traits.

cs.CL↗