arXiv subjects

Sara Seager

Publications and source records attributed to Sara Seager.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Leveraging Impact Parameter to Mitigate the Transit Light Source Effect: Early Insights from TRAPPIST-1

Stellar activity complicates exoplanet transmission spectra, particularly for smaller planets around M dwarfs with JWST. The transit light source (TLS) effect, the imprinting of spectral differences between the average stellar disk and the occulted transit chord onto the transmission spectrum, makes it challenging to directly use the out-of-transit spectrum to correct for stellar contamination. Theory and observations suggest that spots may concentrate towards higher latitudes when the Coriolis force is substantial relative to buoyancy, leaving the equatorial region relatively quiet. Here, we evaluate how the latitudinal distribution of active regions shapes the strength of the TLS effect for planets spanning a range of impact parameters ($b$), using TRAPPIST-1 as a testbed. We first construct a fiducial model to illustrate two distribution regimes. With our model, the moderate-$b$ outer TRAPPIST-1 planets (f, g, h) occult a more typical region of the stellar disk than the inner planets and are thereby less affected by the TLS effect, though their bias may vary more from visit-to-visit as these active regions evolve with time. More generally, our results imply an impact parameter "sweet spot" for atmospheric characterization, independent of the sign of the active region temperature contrast, whose location depends on the distribution of active regions. The distribution may be revealed by transit residuals as multiple planets probe different latitudes, while longitudes are sampled in time, such that the variance and frequency of the correlated scatter could constrain active-region filling factors, sizes, and separations.

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arXiv2026

The Viability of Life in Helium-Dominated Exoplanet Atmospheres

Helium is the second most abundant element in the Universe, yet helium-dominated atmospheres are rarely considered as environments for life. Two assumptions have contributed to this neglect: helium is expected to escape from rocky planets together with hydrogen, and Earth itself lacks a substantial helium envelope. Recent observations and atmospheric evolution models, indicate that rocky exoplanets can retain helium-dominated atmospheres. Here we make the case for life in such environments by synthesizing a largely overlooked body of laboratory research on life in helium-dominated atmospheres. Every organism studied, including bacteria, fungi, protozoa, microalgae, plants, and animals tolerates helium-dominated atmospheres when supplied with essential metabolic requirements. Across a range of pressures, helium has shown no demonstrated toxicity and no fundamental barrier to metabolism, cell division, photosynthesis, nitrogen fixation, or coordinated multicellular activity, including in humans. Helium-dominated atmospheres therefore constitute a viable and underrecognized planetary environment for life. Helium is chemically inert and spectroscopically unobtrusive, so the bulk atmosphere would neither contribute to the chemical destruction of biosignature gases nor strongly obscure their spectral features. Helium-dominated atmospheres also have low mean molecular weights and large scale heights, strengthening spectral features in transmission and improving remote detectability.

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arXiv2026

ASTEP confirmation of a pair of long-period Jupiter-sized planets with extremely low densities transiting TOI-791

Gas giant planets with periods $20~<~P~<~300~\rm days$ orbiting Sun-like stars are a relatively uncommon outcome of planetary formation, and key questions about the nature and formation of this sub-population remain unanswered. Theoretical models for the location of their formation (in- or ex-situ) and for their subsequent migration predict different outcomes in terms of planet masses and eccentricities, indicating that observations have a key role to play in disentangling their histories. In this work we present the discovery and confirmation of a pair of long-period Jupiter-sized planets transiting an F7 star: TOI-791 b is a $0.993\pm0.033\rm~R_{Jup}$ planet on a $139.29931_{-0.00012}^{+0.00011}~\rm day$ orbit, and TOI-791 c, a $1.155\pm0.040\rm ~R_{Jup}$ planet on a $232.01570_{-0.00071}^{+0.00067}~\rm day$ orbit. The two planets are within 0.07% of a second-order 5:3 period commensurability leading to transit timing variations (TTVs) of up to 50 minutes. We confirm their planetary nature using ground-based photometry, including multiple full detections of the $>11~\rm hr$ transits of both TOI-791 b and c from Antarctica with ASTEP, making these the longest-duration transits ever observed in their entirety from the ground. Our detailed analysis of the TTV signal allows us to measure dynamical masses for both planets, which yield densities of $\rho_{\rm b}=0.038\pm0.008 \rm ~g~cm^{-3}$ and $\rho_{\rm c}=0.047\pm0.006 \rm ~g~cm^{-3}$, indicating that TOI-791~b and c are two of the lowest density giant planets ever detected. While these measurements are robust, further follow-up is needed to fully characterise the TTV signal and the architecture of the system.

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arXiv2026

JWST-TST High Contrast: First Direct Spectroscopy of GJ 504 b reveals Clouds and Possible Metal Enrichment

Characterizing the coldest directly imaged companions through direct spectroscopy has only recently become possible with the James Webb Space Telescope. We present moderate-resolution (R $\sim$ 2,700) spectroscopic observations of the directly imaged planetary-mass companion (PMC), GJ 504 b, using the $JWST$/NIRSpec. As the coldest imaged PMC of the pre-JWST era GJ 504 b is too faint for ground-based spectroscopy, with only photometric observations possible. Leveraging advanced post-processing techniques with a forward modeling framework, we detect the companion at high signal-to-noise (S/N$>$300). We also present the first successful PSF subtraction with angular differential imaging (ADI) in the NIRSpec point cloud, detecting GJ 504 b at S/N$>10$ and reaching contrast limits $<10^{-4}$. The extracted 2.9--5.3 $\mu m$ spectra show strong signatures of several molecular species, including H$_2$O, $^{12}$C$^{16}$O, CH$_4$, CO$_2$, NH$_3$, H$_2$S, $^{13}$C$^{16}$O, and $^{12}$C$^{18}$O. Atmospheric modeling of the spectra using \texttt{petitRADTRANS}, yields an effective temperature = 564$\pm$4 K, surface gravity $\log{g}$ = 4.87$^{+0.13}_{-0.12}$, metallicity [M/H] = 0.67$^{+0.13}_{-0.12}$, C/O ratio = 0.64$^{+0.02}_{-0.02}$, interstellar $^{12}$C/$^{13}$C and $^{16}$O/$^{18}$O isotopologue ratios, and strong evidence of disequilibrium chemistry and salt clouds. The retrieved parameters indicate a mass 25.2$^{+8.4}_{-6.0}$ $M_\mathrm{Jup}$, which is in agreement with the mass range (19--27 $M_\mathrm{Jup}$) obtained from ATMO evolutionary models, implying an age of 2.5--4.0 Gyr. Lastly, we compare the abundances of GJ 504 b to its primary, obtaining a stellar abundance of sulfur (S), super-stellar carbon (C), and possibly, oxygen (O). The observed metal enrichment tentatively supports planet-like formation, but does not entirely exclude stellar abundances for GJ 504 b.

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arXiv2026

A single power law for the TRAPPIST-1 flare distribution across four orders of magnitude in energy

TRAPPIST-1 is an ultra-cool dwarf that flares frequently. These flares shape the surrounding planets' high-energy irradiation environments, with consequences for atmospheric chemistry and escape, and they can contaminate transmission spectroscopy of those planets. A quantitative flare-frequency distribution (FFD) spanning the full energy range is therefore essential for both interpreting JWST spectra and modeling the planets' irradiation histories. Here we present a unified FFD over four orders of magnitude in energy by jointly analyzing $\approx$87\,hr of JWST/NIRISS and JWST/NIRSpec time-series spectroscopy together with $\approx$74\,days of \textit{Kepler}/K2 photometry. To enable a consistent comparison across these heterogeneous datasets, we convert all events to energies in the TESS bandpass. For the Kepler-to-TESS conversion we adopt a cooler flare continuum appropriate for ultra-cool dwarfs ($T_{\rm flare}=3500$\,K). After correcting for flare-detection sensitivities, the combined JWST+K2 cumulative FFD is consistent with a single power law, $N(\ge E_\mathrm{TESS})\propto E_\mathrm{TESS}^{-\beta}$, with $\beta=0.753$ over $E_{\rm TESS}\simeq10^{29}$-$10^{33}$\,erg. The slope of the distribution indicates that the time-averaged flare energy budget is dominated by rare, high-energy events rather than by the more numerous low-energy flares. Moreover, we found that strong flares with energies $E_\mathrm{TESS} > 10^{32}$~erg occur once every 25 days, about an order of magnitude more frequently than inferred from previous TRAPPIST-1/analog FFD estimates. This elevated rate of energetic flares has important implications for atmospheric escape, photochemistry, and habitability assessments of the TRAPPIST-1 planets.

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arXiv2026

Direct Images of CO2 Absorption in the Atmosphere of a Super-Jupiter: Enhanced Metallicity Suggestive of Formation in a Disk

It is unclear how directly imaged substellar companions with masses near the deuterium burning limit form, because these objects are rare and their bulk properties are not diagnostic of their formation. In this paper we revisit this problem using JWST/NIRCam coronagraphic images of the 29 Cygni (=HIP 99770) system that reveal the recently-discovered super-Jovian companion 29 Cyg b at wavelengths covering 4-5${\mu}$m for the first time. This object has an uncertain mass that straddles the deuterium burning limit ($M_{\rm b}\simeq15\pm5\,M_{\rm J}$) and a low mass ratio with its early-type host star ($M_{\rm b}/M_\star\sim0.01$). Absorption from CO$_2$ and CO is apparent at 4.3 and 4.6${\mu}$m in our images. The strength of the CO$_2$ feature relative to CO provides strong evidence, based on empirical comparison with literature observations at these wavelengths and atmospheric modeling, that the companion is enriched in heavier elements compared to the roughly solar abundances of the host ($Z_{\rm b}/Z_\star=3\pm2$). In addition, we measure the stellar inclination angle with CHARA/PAVO interferometry: the system is consistent with spin-orbit alignment at the $2\,\sigma$ level, with $\Delta i=12\pm6^\circ$. This ensemble of evidence is suggestive of formation within the protoplanetary disk and rapid accretion of metal-rich material, versus disk fragmentation or capture like higher mass ratio companions. 29 Cyg b shows that planet formation around early-type stars can occur on scales at or exceeding the deuterium burning limit, in agreement with the recently revised planetary mass/metallicity trend that predicts $Z_{\rm pl}/Z_\star=3.3\pm0.5$ at high masses from transiting planet densities (Chachan et al. 2025).

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arXiv2026

Ionic Liquid Biospheres

Liquid is a fundamental requirement for life as we understand it, but whether that liquid has to be water is not known. We propose the hypothesis that ionic liquids (ILs) and deep eutectic solvents (DES) constitute a class of non-aqueous planetary liquids capable of persisting on a wide range of bodies where stable liquid water cannot exist. This hypothesis is motivated by key physical properties of ILs and DES. Many exhibit vapor pressures orders of magnitude lower than that of water and remain liquid across exceptionally wide temperature ranges, from cryogenic to well above terrestrial temperatures. These properties permit stable liquids to exist where liquid water would rapidly evaporate or freeze and outside of bulk phases as persistent microscale reservoirs-such as thin films and pore-filling droplets. In other words, ILs and DES can persist in environments without requiring oceans, thick atmospheres, or narrowly regulated climate conditions. We further hypothesize that ILs and DES could act as solvents for non-Earth-like life. Our hypothesis ex-tends to the idea that ILs and DES could enable prebiotic chemistry by providing long-lived, protective liquid environments for complex organic molecules on bodies such as comets and asteroids, where liquid water is absent. Based on the occurrence of DES-like mixtures as protective intracellular liquids in desiccation-tolerant plants, we propose that ILs and DES might be solvents that life elsewhere purposefully evolves. We review protein and other biomolecule studies in ILs and DES and outline planetary environments in which ILs and DES might occur by discussing available anions and cations. We present strategies to advance the IL/DES solvent hypothesis using laboratory studies, computational chemistry, planetary missions, analysis of existing spectroscopic datasets, and modeling of liquid microniches and chemical survival on small bodies.

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arXiv2026

The Orbital Eccentricity--Radius Distribution for Warm, Single Planets in TESS

We characterize the radius-dependent eccentricity distribution of 219 warm (P = 8--50 days) systems with only one transiting planetary candidate identified during Sectors 1-69 of the TESS mission. Using the ``photoeccentric effect'' in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we first model the population using discrete planetary size bins (sub-Neptunes, sub-Saturns, and Jovians). We then develop a continuous mixture model with weights governed by a logistic sigmoid function of radius. We find that the warm-single population is best described by two components: a dominant low-eccentricity mode ( = 0.039-0.038+0.018) and a secondary dynamically excited mode ( = 0.466-0.068+0.067). The fraction of planets belonging to this high-eccentricity component increases strongly with planet radius, characterized by a transition at a break radius of R_br = 9.2-1.1+1.9 R_e. This trend places warm sub-Saturns predominantly on the same low-eccentricity track as sub-Neptunes. In contrast, warm Jovians (8--16 R_e) are frequently eccentric, with 65-12+13% of the population in the high eccentricity mode. Under the assumption of a two-component model, we see tentative evidence for a bimodal Jovian distribution at ~2.7 sigma. Finally, we identify a non-negligible tail of highly eccentric sub-Neptunes (1--4 R_e), which comprise 16.2-6.4+5.2% of the population, consistent with excitation by non-transiting external companions.

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arXiv2026

Two warm sub-Saturn mass planets identified from the TESS Full Frame Images

Context. Characterization of warm giants is crucial to constrain giant planet formation and evolution. Measuring the mass and radius of these planets, combined with their moderated irradiation, allows us to estimate their planetary bulk composition, which is a key quantity to comprehend giant planet formation and structure. Aims. We present the discovery of two transiting warm giant planets orbiting solar-type stars from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), which were characterized by further spectroscopic and photometric ground-based observations. Methods. We performed a joint analysis of photometric data with radial velocities to confirm and characterize TOI-883 b and TOI-899 b, two sub-Saturns orbiting solar-like stars. Results. TOI-883 b and TOI-899 b have masses of $0.123 \pm 0.012$ $M_J$ and $0.213 \pm 0.024$ $M_J$, radius of $0.604 \pm 0.028$ $R_J$ and $0.991 \pm 0.044$ $R_J$, periods of $10.06$ d and $12.85$ d and equilibrium temperature of $1086 \pm 19$ K and $1040 \pm 19$ K, respectively. Conclusions. While having similar masses, orbital periods and stellar host properties, these planets seem to have different internal compositions, which could point to distinct formation histories. Both planets are suitable targets for atmospheric studies to further constrain formation scenarios of planets in the Neptune-Saturn mass range

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arXiv2026

Overestimated Pressure Broadening Misleads Model Spectra in Cool M Dwarf Stars

Available one-dimensional stellar models fail to reproduce the observed spectrum of the ultracool M dwarf TRAPPIST-1. In particular, current models predict strong iron hydride (FeH) absorption due to the Wing-Ford bands at 0.99$μ$m, yet this spectral feature is only weakly present in TRAPPIST-1 and other mid-to-late M dwarf stars. Additionally, the shape of the continuum between the water bands in the near-infrared does not match between models and observations. Here, we show that assumptions about pressure broadening, specifically van der Waals broadening, have a dramatic effect on modeled broadband spectral features. We use Merged Parallelized Simplified-ATLAS to generate synthetic spectra over a range of van der Waals broadening strengths, adopting 1D PHOENIX temperature-pressure structures. We find that minimal broadening best matches the observed FeH profile at 0.99$μ$m and in the pseudocontinuum between the large water bands. These results suggest that broadening prescriptions derived for Sun-like stars are not valid for lower-mass stars and that pressure broadening for molecular lines in cool stellar atmospheres must be reevaluated. Refining pressure broadening treatments will improve the accuracy of M dwarf spectral models, enabling more reliable determinations of stellar properties and atmospheric compositions of planets orbiting M dwarfs.

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arXiv2025

Challenges in the detection of gases in exoplanet atmospheres

Claims of detections of gases in exoplanet atmospheres often rely on comparisons between models including and excluding specific chemical species. However, the space of molecular combinations available for model construction is vast and highly degenerate. Only a limited subset of these combinations is typically explored for any given detection. As a result, apparent detections of trace gases risk being artifacts of incomplete modeling rather than robust identification of atmospheric constituents, especially in the low signal-to-noise regime. Using the sub-Neptune K2-18 b as a case study, we show that recent biosignature claims vanish when the model space is expanded, with numerous alternatives providing equally good or better fits. We demonstrate that the significance of a claimed detection relies on the choice of models being compared, and that model preference does not in itself imply the presence of a specific gas. We recommend treating model comparisons instead as relative adequacy tests, which should be supported by theoretical predictions and complementary metrics of statistical significance in order to attribute a signal to a particular gas.

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arXiv2025

JWST-TST High Contrast: Medium-resolution spectroscopy reveals a carbon-rich circumplanetary disk around the young accreting exoplanet Delorme 1 AB b

Young accreting planetary-mass objects are thought to draw material from a circumplanetary disk (CPD) composed of gas and dust. While the gas within the disk is expected to disperse within the first million years, strong accretion has nonetheless been detected in older systems, including the 30--45 Myr-old planetary-mass companion Delorme 1 AB b. We conducted spectroscopic observations with JWST/MIRI to investigate the presence of circumplanetary material around this young, accreting planet, and to characterize the planet's atmospheric properties and composition. We perform forward modeling using atmospheric models to characterize the planet's atmosphere. Beyond 10 microns, the SED becomes dominated by this CPD rather than the planet itself. We detect strong emission from HCN and C$_2$H$_2$, while no O-bearing species are observed in the CPD spectrum, suggesting the gas in the CPD has an elevated C/O. We also identify spatially extended H$_2$ emission around the planet, tracing warm gas, with indications that it may be at a higher temperature than the non-extended component. The mid-infrared spectrum of the planetary-mass companion Delorme 1 AB b reveals the first detection of bright C-bearing species in a CPD, together with an outflow traced by H$_2$ extended emission, that could be interpreted as a disk wind. The hot dust continuum emission suggests an inner cavity in the CPD. The presence of warm gas in the CPD provides constraints on the disk's chemical composition and physical conditions, opening up new avenues for disk studies. The study of these long-lived "Peter Pan" disks will enhance our understanding of how accretion persists in evolved low-mass systems, shedding light on their formation, longevity, and evolutionary pathways in planetary systems.

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arXiv2025

JWST TRAPPIST-1 e/b Program: Motivation and first observations

One of the forefront goals in the field of exoplanets is the detection of an atmosphere on a temperate terrestrial exoplanet, and among the best suited systems to do so is TRAPPIST-1. However, JWST transit observations of the TRAPPIST-1 planets show significant contamination from stellar surface features that we are unable to confidently model. Here, we present the motivation and first observations of our JWST multi-cycle program of TRAPPIST-1 e, which utilize close transits of the airless TRAPPIST-1 b to model-independently correct for stellar contamination, with the goal of determining whether TRAPPIST-1 e has an Earth-like mean molecular weight atmosphere containing CO$_2$. We present our simulations, which show that with the 15 close transit observations, we will be able to detect this atmosphere on TRAPPIST-1 e at $Δ\ln\,Z=5$ or greater confidence assuming we are able to correct for stellar contamination using the close transit observations. We also show the first three observations of our program. We find that our ability to correct for stellar contamination can be inhibited when strong stellar flares are present, as flares can break the assumption that the star does not change meaningfully between planetary transits. The cleanest observation demonstrates the removal of stellar contamination contribution through an increased preference for a flat line over the original TRAPPIST-1 e spectrum, but highlights how minor data analysis assumptions can propagate significantly when searching for small atmospheric signals. This is amplified when using the signals from multiple planets, which is important to consider as we continue our atmospheric search.

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arXiv2025

High five from ASTEP: Three validated planets and two eclipsing binaries in a diverse set of long-period candidates

We present the analysis of five long-period TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs), all orbiting Sun-like stars, with orbital periods exceeding one month. Initially identified by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), we extensively monitored these targets with the Antarctic Search for Transiting Exoplanets (ASTEP), supported by other facilities in the TESS Follow-up Observing Program (TFOP) network. These targets occupy a relatively underexplored region of the period-radius parameter space, offering valuable primordial probes for planetary formation and migration as warm planets better maintain their evolutionary fingerprints. To characterise these systems, we leveraged high-resolution speckle imaging to search for nearby stellar companions, and refine stellar parameters using both reconnaissance spectroscopy and spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting. We combined TESS photometry with high-precision ground-based observations from ASTEP, and when available, included additional photometry and radial velocity data. We applied statistical validation to assess the planetary nature of each candidate and used Allesfitter to jointly model the photometric and spectroscopic datasets. We validate the planetary nature of three TOIs, including the two warm Saturns TOI-4507b (8.2 Earth radii, 104d) and TOI-3457b (10.0 Earth radii, 32.6d), as well as the warm sub-Neptune TOI-707b (2.4 Earth radii, 52.8d). The remaining two candidates are most consistent with eclipsing binaries, namely TOI-2404 and TOI-4404. These results help populate the sparse regime of warm planets, which serve as key tracers of planetary evolution, and demonstrate ASTEP's effectiveness as a ground-based follow-up instrument for long-period systems.

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arXiv2025

Combined Exoplanet Mass and Atmospheric Characterization for Accelerated Exoplanetology

Today's most detailed characterization of exoplanet atmospheres is accessible via transit spectroscopy (TS). Detecting transiting exoplanets only yields their size, and it is thus standard to measure a planet's mass before moving towards their atmospheric characterization, or even the publication of their discovery. This framework, however, can act as a bottleneck for high-throughput exoplanetology. Here, we review existing applications of an alternative approach deriving exoplanet masses in small JWST atmospheric exploration programs and quantify the potential of its systematic application. We find that for $\sim$20\% of transiting exoplanets with existing mass constraints, a small JWST exploration program could yield the planetary mass with a similar -- or better -- precision. Such results suggest that proceeding directly with atmospheric exploration programs for favorable exoplanets (i.e., with a transmission spectroscopy metric, TSM, $\geq$100) could substantially reduce the time from detection to exoplanet atmospheric study and further support JWST's scientific output over its lifetime while saving up to 20\% of resources on radial-velocity (RV) facilities. Furthermore, it can substantially increase the sample of characterized planets of three distinct subpopulations (Neptune-sized, young, and hot-star exoplanets), each providing specific insights into formation and evolution processes. As the field of exoplanets increasingly turns to directly imaged planets, mastering the determination of planetary masses from atmospheric spectra will become essential.

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arXiv2025

JWST-TST DREAMS: Sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere of the Neptune-mass planet HAT-P-26 b from NIRSpec G395H transmission spectroscopy

We present the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) transmission spectrum of the exoplanet HAT-P-26 b (18.6 Earth masses, 6.33 Earth radii), based on a single transit observed with the JWST NIRSpec G395H grating. We detect water vapor (ln B = 4.1), carbon dioxide (ln B = 85.6), and sulfur dioxide (ln B = 13.5) with high confidence, along with marginal indications for hydrogen sulfide and carbon monoxide (ln B < 0.5). The detection of SO2 in a warm super-Neptune sized exoplanet (radius about 6 Earth radii) bridges the gap between previous detections in hot Jupiters and sub-Neptunes, highlighting the role of disequilibrium photochemistry across a broad range of exoplanet atmospheres, including those cooler than 1000 K. Our precise measurements of carbon, oxygen, and sulfur indicate an atmospheric metallicity of about 10 times solar and a sub-solar C/O ratio. Retrieved molecular abundances are consistent within 2 sigma with predictions from self-consistent models including photochemistry. The elevated CO2 abundance and possible H2S signal may also reflect sensitivities to the thermal structure, cloud properties, or additional disequilibrium processes such as vertical mixing. We compare the SO2 abundance in HAT-P-26 b with that of ten other JWST-observed giant exoplanets, and find a correlation with atmospheric metallicity. The trend is consistent with the prediction from Crossfield (2023), showing a steep rise in SO2 abundance at low metallicities, and a more gradual increase beyond 30 times solar. This work is part of a series of studies by our JWST Telescope Scientist Team (JWST-TST), in which we use Guaranteed Time Observations to perform Deep Reconnaissance of Exoplanet Atmospheres through Multi-instrument Spectroscopy (DREAMS).

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arXiv2025

The Photochemical Plausibility of Warm Exo-Titans Orbiting M-Dwarf Stars

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has begun to spectrally characterize small exoplanets orbiting M-dwarf stars, but interpretation of these spectra is ambiguous, with stellar, instrumental, or atmospheric origins possible for apparent spectral features. Consequently, interpretation of JWST small exoplanet spectra follows a Bayesian approach, with less theoretically plausible interpretations facing a higher burden of proof. Here, we use photochemical modeling to evaluate the plausibility of warm exo-Titans, exoplanets with N$_2$-CH$_4$ atmospheres analogous to Titan but orbiting closer to their host stars. Consideration of warm exo-Titans is motivated by arguments from planet formation, as well as tentative evidence from observations. Using TRAPPIST-1e as a case study, we show that the higher instellation experienced by warm exo-Titans reduces their CH$_4$ lifetime $τ_{\text{CH}_{4}}$ relative to true Titan by orders of magnitude, reducing the probability of observing them. We constrain the $τ_{\text{CH}_{4}}$ on a warm exo-Titan to be $\leq0.1\times$ (and most likely $\leq0.02\times$) true Titan, implying the absolute probability of detecting a warm exo-Titan is $<0.1$ and likely $<0.01$. This finding is consistent with recent JWST nondetections of CH$_4$-dominated atmospheres on warm terrestrial exoplanets. The low prior probability means that the standard of proof required to claim a warm exo-Titan detection is high, and we offer specific suggestions towards such a standard of proof. Observation of oxidized carbon species would corroborate a putative warm exo-Titan detection. Confirmed detection of warm exo-Titans would signal the need to fundamentally rethink our understanding of the structure, dynamics, and photochemistry of Titan-like worlds.

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arXiv2025

JWST-TST DREAMS: NIRSpec/PRISM Transmission Spectroscopy of the Habitable Zone Planet TRAPPIST-1 e

TRAPPIST-1 e is one of the very few rocky exoplanets that is both amenable to atmospheric characterization and that resides in the habitable zone of its star -- located at a distance from its star such that it might, with the right atmosphere, sustain liquid water on its surface. Here, we present a set of 4 JWST/NIRSpec PRISM transmission spectra of TRAPPIST-1 e obtained from mid to late 2023. Our transmission spectra exhibit similar levels of stellar contamination as observed in prior works for other planets in the TRAPPIST-1 system (Lim et al, 2023; Radica et al., 2024), but over a wider wavelength range, showcasing the challenge of characterizing the TRAPPIST-1 planets even at relatively long wavelengths (3-5 um). While we show that current stellar modeling frameworks are unable to explain the stellar contamination features in our spectra, we demonstrate that we can marginalize over those features instead using Gaussian Processes, which enables us to perform novel exoplanet atmospheric inferences with our transmission spectra. In particular, we are able to rule out cloudy, primary H$_2$-dominated ($\gtrsim$ 80$\%$ by volume) atmospheres at better than a 3$σ$ level. Constraints on possible secondary atmospheres on TRAPPIST-1 e are presented in a companion paper (Glidden et al., 2025). Our work showcases how JWST is breaking ground into the precisions needed to constrain the atmospheric composition of habitable-zone rocky exoplanets.

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