arXiv subjects

Sarah Blunt

Publications and source records attributed to Sarah Blunt.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Impacts of Correlated Noise on Retrievals of Exo-Earth Atmospheres

The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) aims to accomplish high-contrast imaging and spectroscopy of true Earth analogs for the first time. However, high-contrast spectroscopy with HWO may be limited by residual speckles which persist after deformable mirror correction and post-processing, hindering atmospheric characterization. Previous studies of self-luminous giant planets showed that neglecting spectrally correlated errors due to speckles results in biased inferences of planetary parameters. Currently, HWO retrieval studies generate spectra without noise spectral correlations. We present a Gaussian Process model of correlated noise of known properties in simulated HWO exo-Earth spectra, and the integration of this noise source into the forward and inverse modeling tool \texttt{rfast}. We quantify the impact of correlated noise on inferred molecular abundances and planetary properties across the ultraviolet/visible/near-infrared bandpass, for varying spectral resolutions (R), signal-to-noise ratios (SNR), and noise correlation length-scales (L). We find that, at the fiducial UV/Vis/NIR R=7/140/70 and SNR=10, including spectrally correlated noise at L=200 nm and L=10 nm yields a 57\% and 161\% higher average uncertainty on log oxygen abundance, compared to uncorrelated noise. Consequently, it is critical for both instrument design and post-processing algorithms to minimize short length-scale chromaticity. Additionally, we find that a moderate resolution can constrain carbon dioxide (R$\geq 280$) and weakly detect methane (R$\geq2800$) abundances, demonstrating the benefit of a moderate resolution near-infrared spectrograph. These findings can aid the interpretation of future HWO reflectance spectra and set requirements on optical quality, instrument stability, and observing configurations.

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arXiv2026

The Roman Coronagraph Community Participation Program: early calibration plan and pilot observation of a companion

Roman is set to launch in weeks! The Coronagraph Instrument - technology pathfinder for future direct imaging missions - is ready to fly too. According to predictions, laboratory tests and high fidelity simulations, it will open a new contrast regime enabling the imaging of mature, giant planets in visible reflected light. The Community Participation Program is responsible for preparing a comprehensive observing program with associated data processing software and calibrations. We give a brief update about the on-going "baseline" calibration plan for the first months. Additionally, we describe a pilot program aiming for the stellar companion HD 29992 B at moderate ~1e-5 to ~1e-6 Band 1 (575 nm) contrast, to be carried out as soon as the instrument is operational. The idea is to generate a canonical data set with a self luminous companion that is easily recoverable. This functional checkout will be precious to best prepare our community, exercise our calibration plan and suite of tools.

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arXiv2026

Early Exploration of the Scientific Discovery Space for the Habitable Worlds Observatory

The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) is a future NASA flagship mission concept identified by the Astro2020 Decadal Survey as the highest priority for large space missions. HWO should conduct "transformative astrophysics" and search for biosignatures in the atmospheres of approximately 25 potentially Earth-like planets. To further the early-stage development of HWO, NASA formed the Science, Technology, Architecture Review Team (START). In turn, START invited the scientific community to join working groups to explore the potential discovery space. In this paper, we present 70 science cases that resulted from this process. The cases address four scientific pillars: growth of galaxies (15 cases), evolution of the elements (13 cases), solar systems in context (32 cases), and living worlds (10 cases). Combined, they would address 27 of the 30 science questions and discovery areas identified by Astro2020. The 140 observing programs needed for the 70 investigations encompass a rich variety of spectroscopic (for 87% of science cases) and photometric (for 30%) observations extending from the UV to the NIR. Additionally, high-contrast and polarimetric capabilities would be needed for 34% and 27% of science cases, respectively. Access to UV wavelengths is critical: 83% of science cases need data at wavelengths <400 nm, and 26% extend to <100 nm. In the NIR, 26% of science cases need observations at wavelengths >=2000 nm. Pursuing the full portfolio of science would also necessitate precise astrometry for planet mass measurement, rapid response capabilities, a large instantaneous field of regard, non-sidereal tracking, saturation mitigation strategies, and high dynamic range.

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arXiv2026

Jointly Modeling Roman Coronagraph Astrometry and Photometry Improves Orbital Parameter Estimates

Launching in 2027, the Nancy Roman Grace Space Telescope (Roman) has the potential to directly image exoplanets in reflected light for the first time. Roman imaging will introduce new constraints on exoplanet orbital parameters, since reflected-light intensity depends on orbital phase. In this Note, we discuss an addition to the open-source Python package orbitize!, which allows users to model exoplanet orbits using joint constraints from astrometry and photometric variations due to orbital phase. To investigate the impact of adding photometric data into the orbital model, we simulated realistic measurements of partial orbits, both including and excluding photometry in our model, and computed orbital posteriors. We found that fitting both astrometry and photometry improves posterior precision relative to fitting astrometry alone. This effect was more pronounced for higher-SNR images; for example, photometric data with SNR=10 yielded 33% improvement in inclination precision when including photometry, while SNR=3 data yielded only 12% improvement.

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arXiv2026

The Companions to B and A Stars Snapshot (C-BASS) Survey: I. Discovery of a Young Brown Dwarf Companion to HIP 17453

We report the detection of a new brown dwarf companion to HIP 17453 A, a chemically peculiar A0V star located at a distance of 81 pc. HIP 17453 A was observed with high-resolution adaptive optics imaging using the Near-Infrared Camera 2 on the Keck II telescope as part of the Companions to B and A Stars Snapshot (C-BASS) survey over a ten-year baseline, revealing the presence of a companion with proper motion consistent with the primary. We estimate the age of the HIP 17453 system as 280 $\pm$ 125 Myr, and with follow-up intermediate resolution (R~1800) spectroscopic observations with the Gemini Near Infra-Red Spectrograph (GNIRS) on the Gemini-North telescope, we found the spectrum of HIP 17453 B to be consistent with a spectral type of L2 $\pm$ 1. Through interpolation of Sonora Diamondback evolutionary models, we calculate an effective temperature of $1953^{+84}_{-78}$ K and mass of $53^{+10}_{-8}$ $M_{Jup}$ for HIP 17453 B, which corresponds to a mass ratio of $q = 0.024 \pm 0.004$ for the HIP 17453 system. With its intermediate mass and young age, HIP 17453 B joins a small set of benchmark brown dwarf companions around early-type stars that are suitable for follow-up atmospheric and evolutionary studies.

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arXiv2026

Detecting and Characterizing Companions with a Calibrated Gaia DR2, DR3, and Hipparcos Catalog (G23H)

Gaia DR4 epoch astrometry will enable the detection of thousands of exoplanets through astrometric motion. Here, we present a composite catalog and modeling framework that extracts the maximum information from existing Hipparcos and Gaia data releases. We calibrate Gaia DR2 proper motions and DR3-DR2 scaled position differences against the Gaia DR3 reference frame, and combine these with the Hipparcos-Gaia Catalog of Accelerations, the Hipparcos intermediate astrometric data, Gaia astrometric excess noise, and Gaia radial velocity variability constraints. We implement a joint likelihood model for these data in Octofitter that marginalizes over Gaia's unpublished observation epochs. This results in full orbit posteriors that can be computed uniformly for a large class of companions. We compare these posteriors to published orbital solutions for 25 stellar binaries from the Sixth Catalog of Orbits of Visual Binary Stars, recovering all companions at high significance and broadly consistent orbital separations. We then recover independent evidence to support 94 of 120 tested Jovian exoplanetary systems from the NASA Exoplanet Archive (plus 3 known stellar companions, and one previously detected planet we now rule out). We demonstrate that in cases like 14 Her b, the posteriors confirm the planetary nature of a signal using only Gaia and Hipparcos data. We find no false positives among 25 RV-quiet standard stars without significant Hipparcos-Gaia accelerations. Our method can break degeneracies inherent to proper motion anomaly or excess noise modeling alone by resolving orbital curvature within the Gaia baseline. The catalog and updated Octofitter are made publicly available to the community.

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arXiv2026

Evidence for a Peak at $\sim$0.3 in the Eccentricity Distribution of Typical Super-Jovian Exoplanets

In this study, we compute completeness-corrected occurrence rates of giant exoplanets as a function of mass, semimajor axis, and eccentricity, using the approximately uniform California Legacy Survey sample of RV-discovered planets published in Rosenthal et al. 2021. We recover the previously-detected rise in occurrence with semimajor axis for both lower- and higher-mass subsets of the population out to $\sim$5 au. When restricting to planets with semimajor axes between 0.1 and 4.5 au (roughly speaking, the "peak" of giant planet occurrence), we find evidence for distinct eccentricity distributions for each of two mass sub-populations. Most strikingly, we observe a peak in the eccentricity distribution of super-Jovian planets (3-20~M$_{\rm J}$) at 0.3, which is apparent using two different parameterizations of the eccentricity distribution model. A hierarchical histogram model reveals that $\sim$92% of posterior samples indicate an elevated occurrence rate of super-Jupiters with modest eccentricities (0.2-0.4) compared to lower or higher eccentricities (i.e. evidence for a moderate eccentricity "peak"), and 99% of samples indicate super-Jupiters with modest eccentricities are more common than those with lower eccentricities (i.e. evidence that moderate eccentricities are more common than low eccentricities). We use a truncated Gaussian model fit to pinpoint the location of the super-Jupiter eccentricity peak with more precision, finding a maximum a posterior (MAP) peak location of $e=0.3$. This low but elevated characteristic eccentricity could be the result of dynamically hot histories, perhaps involving a giant impacts phase. All analysis code for this project is publicly available on Zenodo (https://zenodo.org/records/18089157) and GitHub (github.com/sblunt/eccentricities).

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arXiv2025

Stellar Obliquities of Young Systems, Atmospheres Undergoing Contraction and Escape (SOYSAUCE): a likely aligned orbit for the 3 Myr planet TIDYE-1 b

Despite the wide range of planet-star (mis)alignments in the mature population of transiting exoplanets, the small number of known young transiting planets are nearly all aligned with the rotation axes of their host stars, as determined by the sky-projected obliquity angle. The small number of young systems with measured obliquities limits statistical conclusions. Here we determine the sky-projected obliquity ($\lambda$) of the 3 Myr transiting planet with a misaligned outer protoplanetary disk, TIDYE-1 b (IRAS 04125+2902 b), using the Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) effect. Our dataset lacks a pre-transit baseline and ingress, complicating a blind RM fit. Instead, we use contemporaneous spectra and photometry from a mass-measurement campaign to model the stellar activity trend across the transit and provide an external prior on the velocity baseline. We determine $|\lambda|=11.8^{+5.9\,\circ}_{-5.0}$. Combined with the published rotational velocity of the star, we find a true three-dimensional obliquity of $\psi=15.2^{+7.3\,\circ}_{-5.7}$. Our result is consistent with an aligned orbit, suggesting the planet remains aligned to its star even though the outer disk is misaligned, though additional RM observations are needed to exclude the low-probability tail of misaligned ($>30^{\circ}$) scenarios present in our posterior.

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arXiv2025

Radial Velocity Strategies for the Orbital Refinement of Exoplanet Direct Imaging Targets

Many potential direct imaging candidates suffer from large orbital period uncertainties, leading to challenges in accurate predictions of future orbital positions and imprecise direct imaging measurements of planetary parameters. To improve the precision in orbital properties, precursor radial velocity (RV) follow-up observations for selected candidates are essential. This study examines the impact of three variables on the orbital period uncertainties of long-period giant planets: the number of future observations, the temporal gap between past and future data, and the temporal coverage of upcoming observations. Our simulations indicate that the orbital phases at which future RV observations are acquired play a significant role in reducing period uncertainties. Additionally, observing too frequently within a given time frame adds limited value to the program once a certain number of observations has been achieved. The temporal gap proves to be the most important factor when there is no strict end time to the observing campaign. However, if a strict end time is set, starting observations earlier yields improved reductions in orbital period uncertainty. These insights offer practical guidance for planning efficient RV follow-up campaigns to maximize the science yield of future space-based direct imaging missions.

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arXiv2025

New Orbital Constraints for YSES 1 b and HR 2562 B from High-Precision Astrometry and Planetary Radial Velocities

We present new VLTI/GRAVITY astrometry and updated orbit fits for the directly imaged companions YSES 1 b and HR 2562 B, substellar objects straddling the planet-brown dwarf boundary. Using high-precision astrometry, radial velocity (RV) data, and proper motions, we derive revised orbital parameters with orbitize! arXiv:1910.01756. For YSES 1 b, the inclusion of GRAVITY astrometry and a relative radial velocity measurement from arXiv:2409.16660 overcomes the traditional challenge of constraining eccentricities for distant companions, enabling the first orbit fit and yielding a constrained eccentricity of 0.44 (0.20). This represents the first full orbit fit for the system. Additionally, we calculate a median line-of-sight stellar obliquity of 12 (+11, -8) degrees, providing further insight into the system's dynamical architecture. For HR 2562 B, our analysis agrees with arXiv:2302.04893, confirming a low-eccentricity orbit (0.34 (0.20)) and an inclination of 87 (1) degrees. We find HR 2562 B's orbit to be nearly coplanar with the debris disk, with a mutual inclination of 3.7 (0.3) degrees. For both YSES 1 b and HR 2562 B the lower eccentricities favor an in situ formation scenario over extreme scattering or cloud fragmentation.

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arXiv2025

Requirements for Joint Orbital Characterization of Cold Giants and Habitable Worlds with Habitable Worlds Observatory

We determine optimal requirements for the joint detection of habitable-zone planets and cold giant planets with the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO). Analysis of 164 nearby stars shows that a coronagraph outer working angle (OWA) of 1440 milliarcseconds (mas) is necessary to achieve 80-90% visibility of cold giants. Approximately 40 precursor radial velocity measurements with 1 m/s precision are required to adequately constrain orbital parameters before HWO observations. We demonstrate that 6-8 astrometric measurements distributed across the mission timeline, compared to radial velocity constraints alone and to astrometry constraints alone, significantly improve orbital parameter precision, enabling direct determination of orbital inclination with uncertainties of 0.8-3 degrees. For habitable-zone planet characterization, 4-5 epochs provide moderate confidence, while high-confidence (95%) confirmation requires 8+ observations. These specifications are essential for the comprehensive characterization of planetary system architectures and understanding the potential habitability of terrestrial exoplanets.

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arXiv2025

A Statistical Method for Constraining the Capability of the Habitable Worlds Observatory to Understand Ozone Onset Time in Earth Analogs

The oxygenation of Earth's atmosphere 2.3 billion years ago, which on exoplanets is expected to be most detectable via the UV ozone feature at $\sim$0.25 $\mu$m, is often regarded as a sign of the emergence of photosynthetic life. On exoplanets, we may similarly expect life to oxygenate the atmosphere, but with a characteristic distribution of emergence times. In this paper, we test our ability to recover various "true" emergence time distributions as a function of 1) stellar age uncertainty and 2) number of Earth analogs in the sample. The absolute uncertainties that we recover, for diverse underlying distributions, are mostly independent of the true underlying distribution parameters, and are more dependent on sample size than stellar age uncertainty. For a sample size of 30 Earth analogs, and an HWO architecture sensitive to ozone at 1% of the current atmospheric level on Earth, we find that no ozone detections across the entire sample would place a 10$\sigma$ limit on the mean time of ozone emergence, regardless of stellar age uncertainty.

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arXiv2025

Differentiating Formation Models with New Dynamical Masses for the PDS 70 Protoplanets

Hot- and cold-start planet formation models predict differing luminosities for the young, bright planets that direct imaging surveys are most sensitive to. However, precise mass estimates are required to distinguish between these models observationally. The presence of two directly imaged planets, PDS 70 b and c, in the PDS 70 protoplanetary disk provides us a unique opportunity for dynamical mass measurements, since the masses for these planets are currently poorly constrained. Fitting orbital parameters to new astrometry of these planets, taken with VLTI/GRAVITY in the $K$~band, we find $2\sigma$ dynamical upper mass limits of 4.9 $M_{\rm Jup}$ for b and 13.6 $M_{\rm Jup}$ for c. Adding astrometry from the newly proposed planet candidate PDS 70 d into our model, we determine $2\sigma$ dynamical upper mass limits of 5.3 $M_{\rm Jup}$, 7.5 $M_{\rm Jup}$ and 2.2 $M_{\rm Jup}$ for b, c, and the candidate d respectively. However, $N$-body analysis of the orbits fit in this case suggest that the inclusion of $d$ makes the system unstable. Using the upper mass limits for b and c we rule out the coldest-start formation models for both planets, calculating minimum post-formation entropies ($S_i$) of 9.5 $k_{\rm B}/{\rm baryon}$ and 8.4 $k_{\rm B}/{\rm baryon}$ respectively. This places PDS 70 b and c on the growing list of directly-imaged planets inconsistent with cold-start formation.

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arXiv2025

Revised Mass and Orbit of $\varepsilon$ Eridani b: A 1 Jupiter-Mass Planet on a Near-Circular Orbit

The mature Jovian planet $\varepsilon$ Eridani b orbits one of the closest sun-like stars at a moderate separation of 3.5 AU, presenting one of the best opportunities to image a true analog to a solar system planet. We perform a thorough joint reanalysis and cross-validation of all available archival radial velocity and astrometry data, combining data from eight radial velocity instruments and four astrometric sources (Hipparcos, Hubble FGS, Gaia DR2, and Gaia DR3). We incorporate methodological advances that impact our findings including a principled treatment of correlation between Gaia DR2 and DR3 velocity and corrections for the changing light-travel time to this high proper motion system. We revise the planet's mass upward to $0.98 \pm 0.09 \, \mathrm{M_{jup}}$ and find that its orbit is nearly circular and close to coplanar with the outer debris disk. We further present one of the first models of an exoplanet orbit exclusively from absolute astrometry and independently confirm the planet's orbital period. We make specific predictions for the planet's location at key imaging epochs from past and future observing campaigns. We discuss and resolve tensions between previous works regarding the eccentricity, inclination, and mass. Our results further support that $\varepsilon$ Eridani b is one of the closest analogs to a Solar System planet yet detected around a nearby star.

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arXiv2025

Planet Masses, Radii, and Orbits from NASA's K2 Mission

We report the masses, sizes, and orbital properties of 86 planets orbiting 55 stars observed by NASA's K2 Mission with follow-up Doppler measurements by the HIRES spectrometer at the W. M. Keck Observatory and the Automated Planet Finder at Lick Observatory. Eighty-one of the planets were discovered from their transits in the K2 photometry, while five were found based on subsequent Doppler measurements of transiting planet host stars. The sizes of the transiting planets range from Earth-size to larger than Jupiter (1-3 REarth is typical), while the orbital periods range from less than a day to a few months. For 32 of the planets, the Doppler signal was detected with significance greater than 5-sigma (51 were detected with >3-sigma significance). An important characteristic of this catalog is the use of uniform analysis procedures to determine stellar and planetary properties. This includes the transit search and fitting procedures applied to the K2 photometry, the Doppler fitting techniques applied to the radial velocities, and the spectral modeling to determine bulk stellar parameters. Such a uniform treatment will make the catalog useful for statistical studies of the masses, densities, and system architectures of exoplanetary systems. This work also serves as a data release for all previously unpublished RVs and associated stellar activity indicators obtained by our team for these systems, along with derived stellar and planet parameters.

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arXiv2024

The Roman coronagraph community participation program: observation planning

The Coronagraphic Instrument onboard the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope is an important stepping stone towards the characterization of habitable, rocky exoplanets. In a technology demonstration phase conducted during the first 18 months of the mission (expected to launch in late 2026), novel starlight suppression technology may enable direct imaging of a Jupiter analog in reflected light. Here we summarize the current activities of the Observation Planning working group formed as part of the Community Participation Program. This working group is responsible for target selection and observation planning of both science and calibration targets in the technology demonstration phase of the Roman Coronagraph. We will discuss the ongoing efforts to expand target and reference catalogs, and to model astrophysical targets (exoplanets and circumstellar disks) within the Coronagraph's expected sensitivity. We will also present preparatory observations of high priority targets.

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arXiv2024

VLTI/GRAVITY Observations of AF Lep b: Preference for Circular Orbits, Cloudy Atmospheres, and a Moderately Enhanced Metallicity

Direct imaging observations are biased towards wide-separation, massive companions that have degenerate formation histories. Although the majority of exoplanets are expected to form via core accretion, most directly imaged exoplanets have not been convincingly demonstrated to follow this formation pathway. We obtained new interferometric observations of the directly imaged giant planet AF Lep b with the VLTI/GRAVITY instrument. We present three epochs of 50$\mu$as relative astrometry and the K-band spectrum of the planet for the first time at a resolution of R=500. Using only these measurements, spanning less than two months, and the Hipparcos-Gaia Catalogue of Accelerations, we are able to significantly constrain the planet's orbit; this bodes well for interferometric observations of planets discovered by Gaia DR4. Including all available measurements of the planet, we infer an effectively circular orbit ($e<0.02, 0.07, 0.13$ at $1, 2, 3 \sigma$) in spin-orbit alignment with the host, and a measure a dynamical mass of $M_\mathrm{p}=3.75\pm0.5\,M_\mathrm{Jup}$. Models of the spectrum of the planet show that it is metal rich ([M/H]$=0.75\pm0.25$), with a C/O ratio encompassing the solar value. This ensemble of results show that the planet is consistent with core accretion formation.

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arXiv2024

Radial Velocity and Astrometric Evidence for a Close Companion to Betelgeuse

We examine a century of radial velocity, visual magnitude, and astrometric observations of the nearest red supergiant, Betelgeuse, in order to reexamine the century-old assertion that Betelgeuse might be a spectroscopic binary. These data reveal Betelgeuse varying stochastically over years and decades due to its boiling, convective envelope, periodically with a $ 5.78$~yr long secondary period, and quasi-periodically from pulsations with periods of several hundred days. We show that the long secondary period is consistent between astrometric and RV datasets, and argue that it indicates a low-mass companion to Betelgeuse, less than a solar mass, orbiting in a 2,110 day period at a separation of just over twice Betelgeuse's radius. The companion star would be nearly twenty times less massive and a million times fainter than Betelgeuse, with similar effective temperature, effectively hiding it in plain sight near one of the best-studied stars in the night sky. The astrometric data favor an edge-on binary with orbital plane aligned with Betelgeuse's measured spin axis. Tidal spin-orbit interaction drains angular momentum from the orbit and spins up Betelgeuse, explaining the spin--orbit alignment and Betelgeuse's anomalously rapid spin. In the future, the orbit will decay until the companion is swallowed by Betelgeuse in the next 10,000 years.

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