Impacts of Correlated Noise on Retrievals of Exo-Earth Atmospheres

Abstract

The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) aims to accomplish high-contrast imaging and spectroscopy of true Earth analogs for the first time. However, high-contrast spectroscopy with HWO may be limited by residual speckles which persist after deformable mirror correction and post-processing, hindering atmospheric characterization. Previous studies of self-luminous giant planets showed that neglecting spectrally correlated errors due to speckles results in biased inferences of planetary parameters. Currently, HWO retrieval studies generate spectra without noise spectral correlations. We present a Gaussian Process model of correlated noise of known properties in simulated HWO exo-Earth spectra, and the integration of this noise source into the forward and inverse modeling tool \texttt{rfast}. We quantify the impact of correlated noise on inferred molecular abundances and planetary properties across the ultraviolet/visible/near-infrared bandpass, for varying spectral resolutions (R), signal-to-noise ratios (SNR), and noise correlation length-scales (L). We find that, at the fiducial UV/Vis/NIR R=7/140/70 and SNR=10, including spectrally correlated noise at L=200 nm and L=10 nm yields a 57\% and 161\% higher average uncertainty on log oxygen abundance, compared to uncorrelated noise. Consequently, it is critical for both instrument design and post-processing algorithms to minimize short length-scale chromaticity. Additionally, we find that a moderate resolution can constrain carbon dioxide (R$\geq 280$) and weakly detect methane (R$\geq2800$) abundances, demonstrating the benefit of a moderate resolution near-infrared spectrograph. These findings can aid the interpretation of future HWO reflectance spectra and set requirements on optical quality, instrument stability, and observing configurations.