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Sarah Dean

Publications and source records attributed to Sarah Dean.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Value Over Language Model: Detecting Original Contribution in Writing

LLMs have been rapidly adopted across writing tasks, prompting the development of tools for detecting LLM-generated text. Yet, these tools largely measure how much of a document's surface text was written by an LLM and aren't fundamentally designed to measure how much of the information content or ideas originated from the LLM itself rather than being supplied by the user in the prompt. In this work, we design a framework that measures how much value a person adds on top of what a language model could have easily produced by itself. The method requires no training or labeled data and never scores the document's surface text, insulating it from stylistic confounders. Instead, it extracts the document's content at increasing levels of granularity, uses an LLM to reconstruct the document from each partial representation, and compares these reconstructions with those produced from the task description alone. We call this framework Value Over Language Model (VOLM), which measures a document's contribution relative to a replacement-level document that an LLM could produce from the task description alone. We evaluate VOLM with a specific instantiation of this framework across three domains: news articles, ICLR peer reviews, and argumentative essays. VOLM separates human-authored documents from matched LLM-generated documents produced from generic task descriptions, while remaining substantially invariant to content-preserving transformations, including LLM-based reconstruction and round-trip translation. We further find that increasingly constrained content extractors reduce residual differences between LLM-generated and humanized text, demonstrating the importance of disentangling informational content from stylistic variation. We hope these results encourage further work on specialized instantiations of the framework and on assessing human contributions in LLM-assisted writing more generally.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Mind the Residual Gap: Probabilistic Downscaling under Real-World Bias

Probabilistic downscaling is the task of modeling the conditional distribution of high-resolution fields given coarse inputs, and is a central challenge to atmospheric science, climate modeling, and other multiscale physical systems. A widely used paradigm decomposes the problem into a deterministic mean predictor followed by a stochastic residual generator. While effective in idealized settings, this mean--residual approach frequently produces biased and under-dispersive ensembles in real-world applications. Is this merely generic predictive uncertainty miscalibration? We show that the root cause is more fundamental: residual target misspecification, the residual distribution induced during training differs systematically from the one required at test time due to downscaling bias. To close this gap, we introduce ReMatch (Residual Distribution Matching). ReMatch aligns the training residual distribution toward the test-time regime via optimal transport in a low-dimensional PCA space. This preserves the statistical benefits of the mean--residual framework while reducing the train--test mismatch in the residual targets seen by the stochastic generator. On a controlled synthetic benchmark with varying bias levels and a real-world HRRR--ERA5 wind field downscaling task, ReMatch substantially reduces under-dispersion, improves calibration (SSR and CRPS), and outperforms strong baselines, including the standard mean--residual model and its variants, as well as state-of-the-art super-resolution models. Our code is available at https://github.com/sdean-group/ReMatch.git.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Extracting Algorithms in Pre-trained LLMs: A Case on Hidden Markov Models

Large language models (LLMs) display a striking ability to predict next observations from Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) via in-context learning (ICL), but the algorithm underlying this capability remains undetermined: prior work has proposed several candidates without consensus, and none has been grounded in the model's internal activations. We close this gap with a three-stage pipeline. First, we empirically compare LLM behavior against a suite of candidate algorithms and narrow the space to three classes -- though no single class explains LLM behavior across all HMM settings and sequence lengths. Second, we derive theoretical connections between the three classes and show how each can be implemented in-context by a Transformer, validating the construction in a small trained Transformer. Third, returning to pre-trained LLMs, we introduce the Principal Activations Probe (PAP), a layer-wise probing and intervention method that isolates algorithmic signals in model activations. PAP reveals low-dimensional linear representations that causally drive model predictions and track empirical ICL performance. PAP further reveals how these representations shift with properties of the underlying HMM regime; distinct computational stages are localized to different layers. Together, our results connect the in-context behavior of pre-trained LLMs to the underlying internal mechanisms and advance our understanding of how LLMs perform ICL on HMMs.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Two-Layer Linear Auto-Regressive Models Estimate Latent States

Auto-regressive models have emerged as powerful tools for sequential data, from language to video. Understanding how and why these models learn latent representations remains an open theoretical question. In this work, we demonstrate that when trained by empirical risk minimization on data from partially observed linear dynamical systems, two-layer linear auto-regressive models naturally learn to approximate Kalman filtering. In particular, we show that the learned hidden representation coincides, up to a similarity transformation, with the state estimates produced by the optimal (Kalman) filter, even though the model has no explicit knowledge of the underlying dynamics or state. The result follows from three main insights. First, we establish that the Kalman filter is well approximated by an auto-regressive model with bounded truncation error. Second, we show that despite non-convexity, the two-layer optimization landscape is benign, i.e., all stationary points are either strict saddles or global minima. Finally, as our main contributions, we provide finite-sample guarantees on prediction error, parameter estimation error, and latent state recovery. Numerical simulations support the theoretical results and demonstrate that the latent representations of auto-regressive models recover state estimates.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Credit-assigned Policy Gradient for Early Stage Retrieval in Two-stage Ranking

Large-scale search, recommendation, and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems typically employ a two-stage architecture: an early-stage ranker (ESR) generates a candidate set, which is subsequently re-ranked by a late-stage ranker (LSR). While there are many reinforcement learning (RL) methods for training the LSR, end-to-end training of the ESR has proven challenging. In particular, naive application of "vanilla" policy gradient (V-PG) is not scalable for candidate-set sizes relevant for practical use due to exploding variance. This issue arises because V-PG propagates the gradient to the joint probability of the candidate sets, ignoring the contribution of each specific item in the candidate set to the reward. To mitigate this issue, we propose a novel "credit-assigned" policy gradient (CA-PG), which computes gradients with respect to the probability that the target item is chosen in any candidate set, i.e. marginalizing over all candidate sets that contain it. Our theoretical analysis reveals that CA-PG significantly reduces the variance of V-PG by marginalizing over the specific composition of the candidate set, while preserving the ability to learn the correct ranking of items under a reasonably aligned LSR policy. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that CA-PG improves the convergence speed and training stability for ESRs utilizing the canonical Plackett-Luce model, especially when the candidate-set size is large.

cs.IR↗
arXiv2026

Recommender Systems as Control Systems

We propose a control-theoretic interpretation of recommender systems and use this perspective to analyze how fairness interventions shape long-term system behavior. Fairness concerns arise for both users and creators, ranging from opinion polarization and representation bias on the user side to popularity bias on the creator side. A central insight of our analysis is that fairness should not be viewed as a simple trade-off against utility. When optimized over time, it can in fact be beneficial for overall system performance. Realizing these gains, however, requires a clear understanding of the underlying dynamics.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2026

Dual Control of Linear Systems from Bilinear Observations with Belief Space Model Predictive Control

We study finite-horizon quadratic control of linear systems with bilinear observations, in which the control input affects not only the state dynamics but also the partial observations of the state. In this setting, the separation principle can fail because control inputs influence the future quality of state estimates. State estimation requires an input-dependent Kalman filter whose gain and error covariance evolve as functions of the control inputs. To address this challenge, we propose a belief-space model predictive control ($\texttt{B-MPC}$) method that plans directly over both the estimated state and its error covariance. In particular, $\texttt{B-MPC}$ plans with a deterministic surrogate of the belief evolution defined by the input-dependent Kalman filter. Through numerical experiments in two synthetic settings, we show that $\texttt{B-MPC}$ can outperform both the separation-principle controller and its MPC variant in favorable regimes, and that these gains are accompanied by lower estimation covariance and more uncertainty-aware action choices.

math.OC↗
arXiv2026

Dynamics of Learning under User Choice: Overspecialization and Peer-Model Probing

In many economically relevant contexts where machine learning is deployed, multiple platforms obtain data from the same pool of users, each of whom selects the platform that best serves them. Prior work in this setting focuses exclusively on the "local" losses of learners on the distribution of data that they observe. We find that there exist instances where learners who use existing algorithms almost surely converge to models with arbitrarily poor global performance, even when models with low full-population loss exist. This happens through a feedback-induced mechanism, which we call the overspecialization trap: as learners optimize for users who already prefer them, they become less attractive to users outside this base, which further restricts the data they observe. Inspired by the recent use of knowledge distillation in modern ML, we propose an algorithm that allows learners to "probe" the predictions of peer models, enabling them to learn about users who do not select them. Our analysis characterizes when probing succeeds: this procedure converges almost surely to a stationary point with bounded full-population risk when probing sources are sufficiently informative, e.g., a known market leader or a majority of peers with good global performance. We verify our findings with semi-synthetic experiments on the MovieLens, Census, and Amazon Sentiment datasets.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

A Human-in-the-Loop Confidence-Aware Failure Recovery Framework for Modular Robot Policies

Robots operating in unstructured human environments inevitably encounter failures, especially in robot caregiving scenarios. While humans can often help robots recover, excessive or poorly targeted queries impose unnecessary cognitive and physical workload on the human partner. We present a human-in-the-loop failure-recovery framework for modular robotic policies, where a policy is composed of distinct modules such as perception, planning, and control, any of which may fail and often require different forms of human feedback. Our framework integrates calibrated estimates of module-level uncertainty with models of human intervention cost to decide which module to query and when to query the human. It separates these two decisions: a module selector identifies the module most likely responsible for failure, and a querying algorithm determines whether to solicit human input or act autonomously. We evaluate several module-selection strategies and querying algorithms in controlled synthetic experiments, revealing trade-offs between recovery efficiency, robustness to system and user variables, and user workload. Finally, we deploy the framework on a robot-assisted bite acquisition system and demonstrate, in studies involving individuals with both emulated and real mobility limitations, that it improves recovery success while reducing the workload imposed on users. Our results highlight how explicitly reasoning about both robot uncertainty and human effort can enable more efficient and user-centered failure recovery in collaborative robots. Supplementary materials and videos can be found at: http://emprise.cs.cornell.edu/modularhil

cs.RO↗
arXiv2026

Do LLMs Favor LLMs? Quantifying Interaction Effects in Peer Review

There are increasing indications that LLMs are not only used for producing scientific papers, but also as part of the peer review process. In this work, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of LLM use across the peer review pipeline, with particular attention to interaction effects: not just whether LLM-assisted papers or LLM-assisted reviews are different in isolation, but whether LLM-assisted reviews evaluate LLM-assisted papers differently. In particular, we analyze over 125,000 paper-review pairs from ICLR, NeurIPS, and ICML. We initially observe what appears to be a systematic interaction effect: LLM-assisted reviews seem especially kind to LLM-assisted papers compared to papers with minimal LLM use. However, controlling for paper quality reveals a different story: LLM-assisted reviews are simply more lenient toward lower quality papers in general, and the over-representation of LLM-assisted papers among weaker submissions creates a spurious interaction effect rather than genuine preferential treatment of LLM-generated content. By augmenting our observational findings with reviews that are fully LLM-generated, we find that fully LLM-generated reviews exhibit severe rating compression that fails to discriminate paper quality, while human reviewers using LLMs substantially reduce this leniency. Finally, examining metareviews, we find that LLM-assisted metareviews are more likely to render accept decisions than human metareviews given equivalent reviewer scores, though fully LLM-generated metareviews tend to be harsher. This suggests that meta-reviewers do not merely outsource the decision-making to the LLM. These findings provide important input for developing policies that govern the use of LLMs during peer review, and they more generally indicate how LLMs interact with existing decision-making processes.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Capacity Constraints Make Admissions Processes Less Predictable

Machine learning models are often used to make predictions about admissions process outcomes, such as for colleges or jobs. However, such decision processes differ substantially from the conventional machine learning paradigm. Because admissions decisions are capacity-constrained, whether a student is admitted depends on the other applicants who apply. We show how this dependence affects predictive performance even in otherwise ideal settings. Theoretically, we introduce two concepts that characterize the relationship between admission function properties, machine learning representation, and generalization to applicant pool distribution shifts: instability, which measures how many existing decisions can change when a single new applicant is introduced; and variability, which measures the number of unique students whose decisions can change. Empirically, we illustrate our theory on individual-level admissions data from the New York City high school matching system, showing that machine learning performance degrades as the applicant pool increasingly differs from the training data. Furthermore, there are larger performance drops for schools using decision rules that are more unstable and variable. Our work raises questions about the reliability of predicting individual admissions probabilities.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2025

Sparse-to-Field Reconstruction via Stochastic Neural Dynamic Mode Decomposition

Many consequential real-world systems, like wind fields and ocean currents, are dynamic and hard to model. Learning their governing dynamics remains a central challenge in scientific machine learning. Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) provides a simple, data-driven approximation, but practical use is limited by sparse/noisy observations from continuous fields, reliance on linear approximations, and the lack of principled uncertainty quantification. To address these issues, we introduce Stochastic NODE-DMD, a probabilistic extension of DMD that models continuous-time, nonlinear dynamics while remaining interpretable. Our approach enables continuous spatiotemporal reconstruction at arbitrary coordinates and quantifies predictive uncertainty. Across four benchmarks, a synthetic setting and three physics-based flows, it surpasses a baseline in reconstruction accuracy when trained from only 10% observation density. It further recovers the dynamical structure by aligning learned modes and continuous-time eigenvalues with ground truth. Finally, on datasets with multiple realizations, our method learns a calibrated distribution over latent dynamics that preserves ensemble variability rather than averaging across regimes. Our code is available at: https://github.com/sedan-group/Stochastic-NODE-DMD

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

High-Altitude Balloon Station-Keeping with First Order Model Predictive Control

High-altitude balloons (HABs) are common in scientific research due to their wide range of applications and low cost. Because of their nonlinear, underactuated dynamics and the partial observability of wind fields, prior work has largely relied on model-free reinforcement learning (RL) methods to design near-optimal control schemes for station-keeping. These methods often compare only against hand-crafted heuristics, dismissing model-based approaches as impractical given the system complexity and uncertain wind forecasts. We revisit this assumption about the efficacy of model-based control for station-keeping by developing First-Order Model Predictive Control (FOMPC). By implementing the wind and balloon dynamics as differentiable functions in JAX, we enable gradient-based trajectory optimization for online planning. FOMPC outperforms a state-of-the-art RL policy, achieving a 24% improvement in time-within-radius (TWR) without requiring offline training, though at the cost of greater online computation per control step. Through systematic ablations of modeling assumptions and control factors, we show that online planning is effective across many configurations, including under simplified wind and dynamics models.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2025

Benchmark Datasets for Lead-Lag Forecasting on Social Platforms

Social and collaborative platforms emit multivariate time-series traces in which early interactions -- such as views, likes, or downloads -- are followed, sometimes months or years later, by higher impact like citations, sales, or reviews. We formalize this setting as Lead-Lag Forecasting (LLF): given an early usage channel (the lead), predict a correlated but temporally shifted outcome channel (the lag). Despite the ubiquity of such patterns, LLF has not been treated as a unified forecasting problem within the time-series community, largely due to the absence of standardised datasets. To anchor research in LLF, here we present two high-volume benchmark datasets: arXiv (accesses -> citations of 2.3M papers) and GitHub (pushes/stars -> forks of 3M repositories). Our datasets provide ideal testbeds for lead-lag forecasting, by capturing long-horizon dynamics across years, spanning the full spectrum of outcomes, and avoiding survivorship bias in sampling. We documented all technical details of data curation and cleaning, verified the presence of lead-lag dynamics through statistical and classification tests, and benchmarked parametric and non-parametric baselines for regression. Our study establishes LLF as a novel forecasting paradigm and lays an empirical foundation for its systematic exploration in social and usage data.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Explore-then-Commit for Nonstationary Linear Bandits with Latent Dynamics

We study a nonstationary bandit problem where rewards depend on both actions and latent states, the latter governed by unknown linear dynamics. Crucially, the state dynamics also depend on the actions, resulting in tension between short-term and long-term rewards. We propose an explore-then-commit algorithm for a finite horizon $T$. During the exploration phase, random Rademacher actions enable estimation of the Markov parameters of the linear dynamics, which characterize the action-reward relationship. In the commit phase, the algorithm uses the estimated parameters to design an optimized action sequence for long-term reward. Our proposed algorithm achieves $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(T^{2/3})$ regret. Our analysis handles two key challenges: learning from temporally correlated rewards, and designing action sequences with optimal long-term reward. We address the first challenge by providing near-optimal sample complexity and error bounds for system identification using bilinear rewards. We address the second challenge by proving an equivalence with indefinite quadratic optimization over a hypercube, a known NP-hard problem. We provide a sub-optimality guarantee for this problem, enabling our regret upper bound. Lastly, we propose a semidefinite relaxation with Goemans-Williamson rounding as a practical approach.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Datasets for Navigating Sensitive Topics in Recommendation Systems

Personalized AI systems, from recommendation systems to chatbots, are a prevalent method for distributing content to users based on their learned preferences. However, there is growing concern about the adverse effects of these systems, including their potential tendency to expose users to sensitive or harmful material, negatively impacting overall well-being. To address this concern quantitatively, it is necessary to create datasets with relevant sensitivity labels for content, enabling researchers to evaluate personalized systems beyond mere engagement metrics. To this end, we introduce two novel datasets that include a taxonomy of sensitivity labels alongside user-content ratings: one that integrates MovieLens rating data with content warnings from the Does the Dog Die? community ratings website, and another that combines fan-fiction interaction data and user-generated warnings from Archive of Our Own.

cs.IR↗
arXiv2025

Pre-trained Large Language Models Learn Hidden Markov Models In-context

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are foundational tools for modeling sequential data with latent Markovian structure, yet fitting them to real-world data remains computationally challenging. In this work, we show that pre-trained large language models (LLMs) can effectively model data generated by HMMs via in-context learning (ICL)$\unicode{x2013}$their ability to infer patterns from examples within a prompt. On a diverse set of synthetic HMMs, LLMs achieve predictive accuracy approaching the theoretical optimum. We uncover novel scaling trends influenced by HMM properties, and offer theoretical conjectures for these empirical observations. We also provide practical guidelines for scientists on using ICL as a diagnostic tool for complex data. On real-world animal decision-making tasks, ICL achieves competitive performance with models designed by human experts. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration that ICL can learn and predict HMM-generated sequences$\unicode{x2013}$an advance that deepens our understanding of in-context learning in LLMs and establishes its potential as a powerful tool for uncovering hidden structure in complex scientific data.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Sub-optimality of the Separation Principle for Quadratic Control from Bilinear Observations

We consider the problem of controlling a linear dynamical system from bilinear observations with minimal quadratic cost. Despite the similarity of this problem to standard linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) control, we show that when the observation model is bilinear, neither does the Separation Principle hold, nor is the optimal controller affine in the estimated state. Moreover, the cost-to-go is non-convex in the control input. Hence, finding an analytical expression for the optimal feedback controller is difficult in general. Under certain settings, we show that the standard LQG controller locally maximizes the cost instead of minimizing it. Furthermore, the optimal controllers (derived analytically) are not unique and are nonlinear in the estimated state. We also introduce a notion of input-dependent observability and derive conditions under which the Kalman filter covariance remains bounded. We illustrate our theoretical results through numerical experiments in multiple synthetic settings.

math.OC↗