arXiv subjects

Sean Carey

Publications and source records attributed to Sean Carey.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

gmsEDA: Decomposition of Electrodermal Activity Signals Using Matrix Separation

Electrodermal activity (EDA) signals, which reflect sympathetic nervous system arousal through changes in skin conductance, are widely used in psychological and behavioral research. Decomposing an observed EDA signal into its slowly varying tonic baseline and stimulus-driven phasic component is an important preprocessing step; however, existing methods process signals in isolation and remain highly sensitive to noise and motion artifacts. This work introduces gmsEDA, a new decomposition method based on generalized matrix separation whose model is designed to cope with noise and motion artifacts. Our method analyzes multiple recordings jointly rather than one at a time, taking advantage of patterns shared across signals to produce more accurate and robust results. Numerical experiments on both simulated and real data shows that this approach outperforms existing standard tools.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2025

Predictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey. V. Detection Rates of Multiplanetary Systems in High Magnification Microlensing Events

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will expand the reach of gravitational microlensing surveys by increasing the number of events monitored and the precision of their light curves. We investigate Roman's ability to detect triple-lens microlensing systems, cases where a foreground star with two bound exoplanets produces detectable anomalies in a microlensing event, using its planned high-cadence observations toward the Galactic bulge. We simulate a large set of high-magnification microlensing light curves based on Roman's expected survey characteristics. A detection criterion, based on a required $\chi^2$ improvement for a two-planet model, is applied to determine whether the second planet can be reliably distinguished from a single-planet (binary-lens) model. Our simulations show that the majority of two-planet microlensing events would be detectable with Roman. Events in which both planets are relatively massive (planet-star mass ratios of order $10^{-3}$), or in which the more massive planet occupies a favorable resonant configuration, produce strong central perturbations, resulting in detection efficiencies of roughly 90\%. By contrast, systems with only low-mass planets ($q \sim 10^{-4}$) or with less favorable alignments generate much weaker signals, which often fall below the detection threshold. In general, the planetary mass ratios and the resulting caustic geometry (e.g., central caustic size in resonant versus wide/close orbits) are the dominant factors governing detectability. Taking into account the expected frequency of planetary systems and the fraction of high-magnification events, we estimate that Roman will detect a high-magnification triple-lens event in approximately 4.5\% of multi-planet microlensing events, corresponding to about 64 events over the course of the full survey.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Predictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey. IV. Lens Mass and Distance Measurements

As part of the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (GBTDS), the Nancy Grace Roman Galactic Exoplanet Survey (RGES) will use microlensing to discover cold outer planets and free-floating planets unbound to stars. NASA has established several science requirements for the GBTDS to ensure RGES success. A key advantage of RGES is Roman's high angular resolution, which will allow detection of flux from many host stars. One requirement specifies that Roman must measure the masses and distances of 40% of detected planet hosts with 20% precision or better. To test this, we simulated microlensing events toward the GBTDS fields and used Fisher matrix analysis to estimate light curve parameter uncertainties. Combining these with Roman imaging observables (lens flux, relative lens-source proper motion), we estimated the achievable precision of lens mass and distance measurements. Using pyLIMASS, a publicly available code for estimating lens properties, we applied this analysis to 3,000 simulated events. Assuming the Cassan et al. (2012) exoplanet mass function, we find that >40% of host stars meet the required 20% precision threshold, confirming that the GBTDS can satisfy the mission requirement. We validated our approach by comparing our inferred lens masses and distances to empirical measurements from detailed image-constrained light curve modeling of historical microlensing events with Hubble and Keck follow-up imaging. Our results agree within roughly 1 sigma, demonstrating that both approaches yield consistent and reliable mass and distance estimates, and confirming the robustness of our simulations for Roman-era microlensing science.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Technique-agnostic exoplanet demography for the Roman era -- I. Testing a demography retrieval framework using simulated Kepler-like transit datasets

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) will unveil for the first time the full architecture of planetary systems across Galactic distances through the discovery of up to 200,000 cool and hot exoplanets using microlensing and transit detection methods. Roman's huge exoplanet haul, and Galactic reach, will require new methods to leverage the full exoplanet demographic content of the combined microlensing and transit samples, given the different sensitivity bias of the techniques to planet and host properties and Galactic location. We present a framework for technique-agnostic exoplanet demography (TAED) that can allow large, multi-technique exoplanet samples distributed over Galactic distance scales to be combined for demographic studies. Our TAED forward modelling and retrieval framework uses parameterised model exoplanet demographic distributions to embed planetary systems within a stellar population synthesis model of the Galaxy, enabling internally consistent forecasts to be made for all detection methods that are based on spatio-kinematic system properties. In this paper, as a first test of the TAED framework, we apply it to simulated transit datasets based on the Kepler Data Release 25 to assess parameter recovery accuracy and method scalability for a single large homogeneous dataset. We find that optimisation using differential evolution provides a computationally scalable framework that gives a good balance between computational efficiency and accuracy of parameter recovery.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Analysis of the full Spitzer microlensing sample I: Dark remnant candidates and Gaia predictions

In the pursuit of understanding the population of stellar remnants within the Milky Way, we analyze the sample of $\sim 950$ microlensing events observed by the Spitzer Space Telescope between 2014 and 2019. In this study we focus on a sub-sample of nine microlensing events, selected based on their long timescales, small microlensing parallaxes and joint observations by the Gaia mission, to increase the probability that the chosen lenses are massive and the mass is measurable. Among the selected events we identify lensing black holes and neutron star candidates, with potential confirmation through forthcoming release of the Gaia time-series astrometry in 2026. Utilizing Bayesian analysis and Galactic models, along with the Gaia Data Release 3 proper motion data, four good candidates for dark remnants were identified: OGLE-2016-BLG-0293, OGLE-2018-BLG-0483, OGLE-2018-BLG-0662, and OGLE-2015-BLG-0149, with lens masses of $2.98^{+1.75}_{-1.28}~M_{\odot}$, $4.65^{+3.12}_{-2.08}~M_{\odot}$, $3.15^{+0.66}_{-0.64}~M_{\odot}$ and $1.4^{+0.75}_{-0.55}~M_{\odot}$, respectively. Notably, the first two candidates are expected to exhibit astrometric microlensing signals detectable by Gaia, offering the prospect of validating the lens masses. The methodologies developed in this work will be applied to the full Spitzer microlensing sample, populating and analyzing the time-scale ($t_{\rm E}$) vs. parallax ($\pi_{\rm E}$) diagram to derive constraints on the population of lenses in general and massive remnants in particular.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

OGLE-2015-BLG-0845L: A low-mass M dwarf from the microlensing parallax and xallarap effects

We present the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2015-BLG-0845, which was affected by both the microlensing parallax and xallarap effects. The former was detected via the simultaneous observations from the ground and Spitzer, and the latter was caused by the orbital motion of the source star in a relatively close binary. The combination of these two effects led to a mass measurement of the lens object, revealing a low-mass ($0.14 \pm 0.05 M_{\odot}$) M-dwarf at the bulge distance ($7.6 \pm 1.0$ kpc). The source binary consists of a late F-type subgiant and a K-type dwarf of $\sim1.2 M_{\odot}$ and $\sim 0.9 M_{\odot}$, respectively, and the orbital period is $70 \pm 10$ days. OGLE-2015-BLG-0845 is the first single-lens event in which the lens mass is measured via the binarity of the source. Given the abundance of binary systems as potential microlensing sources, the xallarap effect may not be a rare phenomenon. Our work thus highlights the application of the xallarap effect in the mass determination of microlenses, and the same method can be used to identify isolated dark lenses.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Non-invasive Liver Fibrosis Screening on CT Images using Radiomics

Objectives: To develop and evaluate a radiomics machine learning model for detecting liver fibrosis on CT of the liver. Methods: For this retrospective, single-centre study, radiomic features were extracted from Regions of Interest (ROIs) on CT images of patients who underwent simultaneous liver biopsy and CT examinations. Combinations of contrast, normalization, machine learning model, and feature selection method were determined based on their mean test Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) on randomly placed ROIs. The combination and selected features with the highest AUC were used to develop a final liver fibrosis screening model. Results: The study included 101 male and 68 female patients (mean age = 51.2 years $\pm$ 14.7 [SD]). When averaging the AUC across all combinations, non-contrast enhanced (NC) CT (AUC, 0.6100; 95% CI: 0.5897, 0.6303) outperformed contrast-enhanced CT (AUC, 0.5680; 95% CI: 0.5471, 0.5890). The combination of hyperparameters and features that yielded the highest AUC was a logistic regression model with inputs features of maximum, energy, kurtosis, skewness, and small area high gray level emphasis extracted from non-contrast enhanced NC CT normalized using Gamma correction with $γ$ = 1.5 (AUC, 0.7833; 95% CI: 0.7821, 0.7845), (sensitivity, 0.9091; 95% CI: 0.9091, 0.9091). Conclusions: Radiomics-based machine learning models allow for the detection of liver fibrosis with reasonable accuracy and high sensitivity on NC CT. Thus, these models can be used to non-invasively screen for liver fibrosis, contributing to earlier detection of the disease at a potentially curable stage.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

Systematic KMTNet Planetary Anomaly Search. X. Complete Sample of 2017 Prime-Field Planets

We complete the analysis of planetary candidates found by the KMT AnomalyFinder for the 2017 prime fields that cover $\sim 13\,{\rm deg}^2$. We report 3 unambiguous planets: OGLE-2017-BLG-0640, OGLE-2017-BLG-1275, and OGLE-2017-BLG-1237. The first two of these were not previously identified, while the last was not previously published due to technical complications induced by a nearby variable. We further report that a fourth anomalous event, the previously recognized OGLE-2017-BLG-1777, is very likely to be planetary, although its light curve requires unusually complex modeling because the lens and source both have orbiting companions. One of the 3 unambiguous planets, OGLE-2017-BLG-1275 is the first AnomalyFinder discovery that has a {\it Spitzer} microlens parallax measurement, $π_E \sim 0.045\pm0.015$, implying that this planetary system almost certainly lies in the Galactic bulge. In the order listed, the four planetary events have planet-host mass ratios $q$, and normalized projected separations $s$, of $(\log q,s)$ = $(-2.31,0.61)$, $(-2.06,0.63/1.09)$, $(-2.10,1.04)$, and $(-2.86,0.72)$. Combined with previously published events, the 2017 AnomalyFinder prime fields contain 11 unambiguous planets with well-measured $q$ and one very likely candidate, of which 3 are AnomalyFinder discoveries. In addition to these 12, there are three other unambiguous planets with large uncertainties in $q$.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Roman Early-Definition Astrophysics Survey Opportunity: Galactic Roman Infrared Plane Survey (GRIPS)

A wide-field near-infrared survey of the Galactic disk and bulge/bar(s) is supported by a large representation of the community of Galactic astronomers. The combination of sensitivity, angular resolution and large field of view make Roman uniquely able to study the crowded and highly extincted lines of sight in the Galactic plane. A ~1000 deg2 survey of the bulge and inner Galactic disk would yield an impressive dataset of ~120 billion sources and map the structure of our Galaxy. The effort would foster subsequent expansions in numerous dimensions (spatial, depth, wavelengths, epochs). Importantly, the survey would benefit from early defintion by the community, namely because the Galactic disk is a complex environment, and different science goals will require trade offs.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

OGLE-2017-BLG-1038: A Possible Brown-dwarf Binary Revealed by Spitzer Microlensing Parallax

We report the analysis of microlensing event OGLE-2017-BLG-1038, observed by the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment, Korean Microlensing Telescope Network, and Spitzer telescopes. The event is caused by a giant source star in the Galactic Bulge passing over a large resonant binary lens caustic. The availability of space-based data allows the full set of physical parameters to be calculated. However, there exists an eightfold degeneracy in the parallax measurement. The four best solutions correspond to very-low-mass binaries near ($M_1 = 170^{+40}_{-50} M_J$ and $M_2 = 110^{+20}_{-30} M_J$), or well below ($M_1 = 22.5^{+0.7}_{-0.4} M_J$ and $M_2 = 13.3^{+0.4}_{-0.3} M_J$) the boundary between stars and brown dwarfs. A conventional analysis, with scaled uncertainties for Spitzer data, implies a very-low-mass brown dwarf binary lens at a distance of 2 kpc. Compensating for systematic Spitzer errors using a Gaussian process model suggests that a higher mass M-dwarf binary at 6 kpc is equally likely. A Bayesian comparison based on a galactic model favors the larger-mass solutions. We demonstrate how this degeneracy can be resolved within the next ten years through infrared adaptive-optics imaging with a 40 m class telescope.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

OGLE-2018-BLG-0799Lb: a $q \sim 2.7 \times 10^{-3}$ Planet with Spitzer Parallax

We report the discovery and analysis of a planet in the microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-0799. The planetary signal was observed by several ground-based telescopes, and the planet-host mass ratio is $q = (2.65 \pm 0.16) \times 10^{-3}$. The ground-based observations yield a constraint on the angular Einstein radius $θ_{\rm E}$, and the microlensing parallax vector $\vecπ_{\rm E}$, is strongly constrained by the Spitzer data. However, the 2019 Spitzer baseline data reveal systematics in the Spitzer photometry, so there is ambiguity in the magnitude of the parallax. In our preferred interpretation, a full Bayesian analysis using a Galactic model indicates that the planetary system is composed of an $M_{\rm planet} = 0.26_{-0.11}^{+0.22}~M_{J}$ planet orbiting an $M_{\rm host} = 0.093_{-0.038}^{+0.082}~M_{\odot}$, at a distance of $D_{\rm L} = 3.71_{-1.70}^{+3.24}$ kpc. An alternate interpretation of the data shifts the localization of the minima along the arc-shaped microlens parallax constraints. This, in turn, yields a more massive host with median mass of $0.13 {M_{\odot}}$ at a distance of 6.3 kpc. This analysis demonstrates the robustness of the osculating circles formalism, but shows that further investigation is needed to assess how systematics affect the specific localization of the microlens parallax vector and, consequently, the inferred physical parameters.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

Systematic KMTNet Planetary Anomaly Search, Paper I: OGLE-2019-BLG-1053Lb, A Buried Terrestrial Planet

In order to exhume the buried signatures of "missing planetary caustics" in the KMTNet data, we conducted a systematic anomaly search to the residuals from point-source point-lens fits, based on a modified version of the KMTNet EventFinder algorithm. This search reveals the lowest mass-ratio planetary caustic to date in the microlensing event OGLE-2019-BLG-1053, for which the planetary signal had not been noticed before. The planetary system has a planet-host mass ratio of $q = (1.25 \pm 0.13) \times 10^{-5}$. A Bayesian analysis yields estimates of the mass of the host star, $M_{\rm host} = 0.61_{-0.24}^{+0.29}~M_\odot$, the mass of its planet, $M_{\rm planet} = 2.48_{-0.98}^{+1.19}~M_{\oplus}$, the projected planet-host separation, $a_\perp = 3.4_{-0.5}^{+0.5}$ au, and the lens distance of $D_{\rm L} = 6.8_{-0.9}^{+0.6}$ kpc. The discovery of this very low mass-ratio planet illustrates the utility of our method and opens a new window for a large and homogeneous sample to study the microlensing planet-host mass-ratio function down to $q \sim 10^{-5}$.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

OGLE-2016-BLG-1093Lb: A Sub-Jupiter-mass Spitzer Planet Located in Galactic Bulge

OGLE-2016-BLG-1093 is a planetary microlensing event that is part of the statistical $Spitzer$ microlens parallax sample. The precise measurement of the microlens parallax effect for this event, combined with the measurement of finite source effects, leads to a direct measurement of the lens masses and system distance: $M_{\rm host} = 0.38$--$0.57\, M_{\odot}$, $m_p = 0.59$--$0.87\, M_{\rm Jup}$, and the system is located at the Galactic bulge ($D_L \sim 8.1$ kpc). Because this was a high-magnification event, we are also able to empirically show that the "cheap-space parallax" concept Gould & Yee (2012) produces well-constrained (and consistent) results for $|π_{\rm E}|$. This demonstrates that this concept can be extended to many two-body lenses. Finally, we briefly explore systematics in the $Spitzer$ light curve in this event and show that their potential impact is strongly mitigated by the color-constraint.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Warm Spitzer IRAC Photometry: dependencies on observing mode and exposure time

We investigate differences in Spitzer/IRAC 3.6 and 4.5micron photometry that depend on observing strategy. Using archival calibration data we perform an in-depth examination of the measured flux densities ("fluxes") of ten calibration stars, observed with all the possible observing strategies. We then quantify differences in the measured fluxes as a function of 1) array mode (full or subarray), 2) exposure time, and 3) dithering versus staring observations. We find that the median fluxes measured for sources observed using the full array are 1.6% and 1% lower than those observed with the subarray at [3.6] and [4.5], respectively. Additionally, we found a dependence on the exposure time such that for [3.6] observations the long frame times are measured to be lower than the short frame times by a median value of 3.4% in full array and 2.9% in subarray. For [4.5] observations the longer frame times are 0.6% and 1.5% in full and subarray respectively. These very small variations will likely only affect science users who require high-precision photometry from multiple different observing modes. We find no statistically significant difference for fluxes obtained with dithered and staring-modes. When considering all stars in the sample, the fractional well depth of the pixel is correlated with the different observed fluxes. We speculate the cause to be a small non-linearity in the pixels at the lowest well depths where deviations from linearity were previously assumed to be negligible.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2021

Spitzer IRAC observations of JWST calibration stars

We present infrared photometry of all 36 potential JWST calibrators for which there is archival Spitzer IRAC data. This photometry can then be used to inform stellar models necessary to provide absolute calibration for all JWST instruments. We describe in detail the steps necessary to measure IRAC photometry from archive retrieval to photometric corrections. To validate our photometry we examine the distribution of uncertainties from all detections in all four IRAC channels as well as compare the photometry and its uncertainties to those from models, ALLWISE, and the literature. 75% of our detections have standard deviations per star of all observations within each channel of less than three percent. The median standard deviations are 1.2, 1.3, 1.1, and 1.9% in [3.6] - [8.0] respectively. We find less than 8% standard deviations in differences of our photometry with ALLWISE, and excellent agreement with literature values (less than 3% difference) lending credence to our measured fluxes. JWST is poised to do ground-breaking science, and accurate calibration and cross-calibration with other missions will be part of the underpinnings of that science.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Refining the transit timing and photometric analysis of TRAPPIST-1: Masses, radii, densities, dynamics, and ephemerides

We have collected transit times for the TRAPPIST-1 system with the Spitzer Space Telescope over four years. We add to these ground-based, HST and K2 transit time measurements, and revisit an N-body dynamical analysis of the seven-planet system using our complete set of times from which we refine the mass ratios of the planets to the star. We next carry out a photodynamical analysis of the Spitzer light curves to derive the density of the host star and the planet densities. We find that all seven planets' densities may be described with a single rocky mass-radius relation which is depleted in iron relative to Earth, with Fe 21 wt% versus 32 wt% for Earth, and otherwise Earth-like in composition. Alternatively, the planets may have an Earth-like composition, but enhanced in light elements, such as a surface water layer or a core-free structure with oxidized iron in the mantle. We measure planet masses to a precision of 3-5%, equivalent to a radial-velocity (RV) precision of 2.5 cm/sec, or two orders of magnitude more precise than current RV capabilities. We find the eccentricities of the planets are very small; the orbits are extremely coplanar; and the system is stable on 10 Myr timescales. We find evidence of infrequent timing outliers which we cannot explain with an eighth planet; we instead account for the outliers using a robust likelihood function. We forecast JWST timing observations, and speculate on possible implications of the planet densities for the formation, migration and evolution of the planet system.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

OGLE-2019-BLG-0960Lb: The Smallest Microlensing Planet

We report the analysis of OGLE-2019-BLG-0960, which contains the smallest mass-ratio microlensing planet found to date (q = 1.2--1.6 x 10^{-5} at 1-sigma). Although there is substantial uncertainty in the satellite parallax measured by Spitzer, the measurement of the annual parallax effect combined with the finite source effect allows us to determine the mass of the host star (M_L = 0.3--0.6 M_Sun), the mass of its planet (m_p = 1.4--3.1 M_Earth), the projected separation between the host and planet (a_perp = 1.2--2.3 au), and the distance to the lens system (D_L = 0.6--1.2 kpc). The lens is plausibly the blend, which could be checked with adaptive optics observations. As the smallest planet clearly below the break in the mass-ratio function (Suzuki et al. 2016; Jung et al. 2019), it demonstrates that current experiments are powerful enough to robustly measure the slope of the mass-ratio function below that break. We find that the cross-section for detecting small planets is maximized for planets with separations just outside of the boundary for resonant caustics and that sensitivity to such planets can be maximized by intensively monitoring events whenever they are magnified by a factor A > 5. Finally, an empirical investigation demonstrates that most planets showing a degeneracy between (s > 1) and (s < 1) solutions are not in the regime (|log s| >> 0) for which the "close"/"wide" degeneracy was derived. This investigation suggests a link between the "close"/"wide" and "inner/outer" degeneracies and also that the symmetry in the lens equation goes much deeper than symmetries uncovered for the limiting cases.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2020

Pixel Level Decorrelation in Service of the \textit{Spitzer} Microlens Parallax Survey

Microlens parallax measurements combining space-based and ground-based observatories can be used to study planetary demographics. In recent years, the Spitzer Space Telescope was used as a microlens parallax satellite. Meanwhile, \textit{Spitzer} IRAC has been employed to study short-period exoplanets and their atmospheres. As these investigations require exquisite photometry, they motivated the development of numerous self-calibration techniques now widely used in the exoplanet atmosphere community. Specifically, Pixel Level Decorrelation (PLD) was developed for starring-mode observations in uncrowded fields. We adapt and extend PLD to make it suitable for observations obtained as part of the \textit{Spitzer} Microlens Parallax Campaign. We apply our method to two previously published microlensing events, OGLE-2017-BLG-1140 and OGLE-2015-BLG-0448, and compare its performance to the state-of-the-art pipeline used to analyses \textit{Spitzer} microlensing observation. We find that our method yields photometry 1.5--6 times as precise as previously published. In addition to being useful for \textit{Spitzer}, a similar approach could improve microlensing photometry with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope.

astro-ph.EP↗