Analysis of the full Spitzer microlensing sample I: Dark remnant candidates and Gaia predictions

Abstract

In the pursuit of understanding the population of stellar remnants within the Milky Way, we analyze the sample of $\sim 950$ microlensing events observed by the Spitzer Space Telescope between 2014 and 2019. In this study we focus on a sub-sample of nine microlensing events, selected based on their long timescales, small microlensing parallaxes and joint observations by the Gaia mission, to increase the probability that the chosen lenses are massive and the mass is measurable. Among the selected events we identify lensing black holes and neutron star candidates, with potential confirmation through forthcoming release of the Gaia time-series astrometry in 2026. Utilizing Bayesian analysis and Galactic models, along with the Gaia Data Release 3 proper motion data, four good candidates for dark remnants were identified: OGLE-2016-BLG-0293, OGLE-2018-BLG-0483, OGLE-2018-BLG-0662, and OGLE-2015-BLG-0149, with lens masses of $2.98^{+1.75}_{-1.28}~M_{\odot}$, $4.65^{+3.12}_{-2.08}~M_{\odot}$, $3.15^{+0.66}_{-0.64}~M_{\odot}$ and $1.4^{+0.75}_{-0.55}~M_{\odot}$, respectively. Notably, the first two candidates are expected to exhibit astrometric microlensing signals detectable by Gaia, offering the prospect of validating the lens masses. The methodologies developed in this work will be applied to the full Spitzer microlensing sample, populating and analyzing the time-scale ($t_{\rm E}$) vs. parallax ($\pi_{\rm E}$) diagram to derive constraints on the population of lenses in general and massive remnants in particular.