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Sebastiano Calchi Novati

Publications and source records attributed to Sebastiano Calchi Novati.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

An Updated SynthPop Model for Microlensing Simulations I: Model Description & Evaluation

The optimization and interpretation of microlensing surveys depends on having an accurate model of the Milky Way. However, existing population synthesis Galactic modeling tools often perform poorly in replicating the stellar contents of the inner Galactic bulge region and reproducing microlensing survey results. We present an updated Galactic model implementation within the \synthpop framework that has been tuned for simulating the upcoming {\it Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope}'s Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (RGBTDS). We evaluate the model against stellar catalogs and kinematics from optical and infrared surveys toward the Galactic bulge, finding good agreement in much of the bulge, including the RGBTDS' contiguous lower bulge fields. However, within Galactic latitudes of $b\lesssim0.5^\circ$ of the Galactic plane, some inconsistencies arise which may impact projections for the RGBTDS' Galactic center field. The model over-predicts optical microlensing event rate per star measurements by a $\sim20$\%, but detailed comparisons to near-infrared measurements are hampered by their lack of detection efficiencies. {\it Roman}'s GBTDS and Galactic Plane Survey will be instrumental in resolving the remaining model inconsistencies and improving our understanding of the structure of the central few degrees of our Galaxy.

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Predictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey. V. Detection Rates of Multiplanetary Systems in High Magnification Microlensing Events

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will expand the reach of gravitational microlensing surveys by increasing the number of events monitored and the precision of their light curves. We investigate Roman's ability to detect triple-lens microlensing systems, cases where a foreground star with two bound exoplanets produces detectable anomalies in a microlensing event, using its planned high-cadence observations toward the Galactic bulge. We simulate a large set of high-magnification microlensing light curves based on Roman's expected survey characteristics. A detection criterion, based on a required $\chi^2$ improvement for a two-planet model, is applied to determine whether the second planet can be reliably distinguished from a single-planet (binary-lens) model. Our simulations show that the majority of two-planet microlensing events would be detectable with Roman. Events in which both planets are relatively massive (planet-star mass ratios of order $10^{-3}$), or in which the more massive planet occupies a favorable resonant configuration, produce strong central perturbations, resulting in detection efficiencies of roughly 90\%. By contrast, systems with only low-mass planets ($q \sim 10^{-4}$) or with less favorable alignments generate much weaker signals, which often fall below the detection threshold. In general, the planetary mass ratios and the resulting caustic geometry (e.g., central caustic size in resonant versus wide/close orbits) are the dominant factors governing detectability. Taking into account the expected frequency of planetary systems and the fraction of high-magnification events, we estimate that Roman will detect a high-magnification triple-lens event in approximately 4.5\% of multi-planet microlensing events, corresponding to about 64 events over the course of the full survey.

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Predictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey. IV. Lens Mass and Distance Measurements

As part of the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (GBTDS), the Nancy Grace Roman Galactic Exoplanet Survey (RGES) will use microlensing to discover cold outer planets and free-floating planets unbound to stars. NASA has established several science requirements for the GBTDS to ensure RGES success. A key advantage of RGES is Roman's high angular resolution, which will allow detection of flux from many host stars. One requirement specifies that Roman must measure the masses and distances of 40% of detected planet hosts with 20% precision or better. To test this, we simulated microlensing events toward the GBTDS fields and used Fisher matrix analysis to estimate light curve parameter uncertainties. Combining these with Roman imaging observables (lens flux, relative lens-source proper motion), we estimated the achievable precision of lens mass and distance measurements. Using pyLIMASS, a publicly available code for estimating lens properties, we applied this analysis to 3,000 simulated events. Assuming the Cassan et al. (2012) exoplanet mass function, we find that >40% of host stars meet the required 20% precision threshold, confirming that the GBTDS can satisfy the mission requirement. We validated our approach by comparing our inferred lens masses and distances to empirical measurements from detailed image-constrained light curve modeling of historical microlensing events with Hubble and Keck follow-up imaging. Our results agree within roughly 1 sigma, demonstrating that both approaches yield consistent and reliable mass and distance estimates, and confirming the robustness of our simulations for Roman-era microlensing science.

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Technique-agnostic exoplanet demography for the Roman era -- I. Testing a demography retrieval framework using simulated Kepler-like transit datasets

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) will unveil for the first time the full architecture of planetary systems across Galactic distances through the discovery of up to 200,000 cool and hot exoplanets using microlensing and transit detection methods. Roman's huge exoplanet haul, and Galactic reach, will require new methods to leverage the full exoplanet demographic content of the combined microlensing and transit samples, given the different sensitivity bias of the techniques to planet and host properties and Galactic location. We present a framework for technique-agnostic exoplanet demography (TAED) that can allow large, multi-technique exoplanet samples distributed over Galactic distance scales to be combined for demographic studies. Our TAED forward modelling and retrieval framework uses parameterised model exoplanet demographic distributions to embed planetary systems within a stellar population synthesis model of the Galaxy, enabling internally consistent forecasts to be made for all detection methods that are based on spatio-kinematic system properties. In this paper, as a first test of the TAED framework, we apply it to simulated transit datasets based on the Kepler Data Release 25 to assess parameter recovery accuracy and method scalability for a single large homogeneous dataset. We find that optimisation using differential evolution provides a computationally scalable framework that gives a good balance between computational efficiency and accuracy of parameter recovery.

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Analysis of the full Spitzer microlensing sample I: Dark remnant candidates and Gaia predictions

In the pursuit of understanding the population of stellar remnants within the Milky Way, we analyze the sample of $\sim 950$ microlensing events observed by the Spitzer Space Telescope between 2014 and 2019. In this study we focus on a sub-sample of nine microlensing events, selected based on their long timescales, small microlensing parallaxes and joint observations by the Gaia mission, to increase the probability that the chosen lenses are massive and the mass is measurable. Among the selected events we identify lensing black holes and neutron star candidates, with potential confirmation through forthcoming release of the Gaia time-series astrometry in 2026. Utilizing Bayesian analysis and Galactic models, along with the Gaia Data Release 3 proper motion data, four good candidates for dark remnants were identified: OGLE-2016-BLG-0293, OGLE-2018-BLG-0483, OGLE-2018-BLG-0662, and OGLE-2015-BLG-0149, with lens masses of $2.98^{+1.75}_{-1.28}~M_{\odot}$, $4.65^{+3.12}_{-2.08}~M_{\odot}$, $3.15^{+0.66}_{-0.64}~M_{\odot}$ and $1.4^{+0.75}_{-0.55}~M_{\odot}$, respectively. Notably, the first two candidates are expected to exhibit astrometric microlensing signals detectable by Gaia, offering the prospect of validating the lens masses. The methodologies developed in this work will be applied to the full Spitzer microlensing sample, populating and analyzing the time-scale ($t_{\rm E}$) vs. parallax ($\pi_{\rm E}$) diagram to derive constraints on the population of lenses in general and massive remnants in particular.

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OGLE-2015-BLG-0845L: A low-mass M dwarf from the microlensing parallax and xallarap effects

We present the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2015-BLG-0845, which was affected by both the microlensing parallax and xallarap effects. The former was detected via the simultaneous observations from the ground and Spitzer, and the latter was caused by the orbital motion of the source star in a relatively close binary. The combination of these two effects led to a mass measurement of the lens object, revealing a low-mass ($0.14 \pm 0.05 M_{\odot}$) M-dwarf at the bulge distance ($7.6 \pm 1.0$ kpc). The source binary consists of a late F-type subgiant and a K-type dwarf of $\sim1.2 M_{\odot}$ and $\sim 0.9 M_{\odot}$, respectively, and the orbital period is $70 \pm 10$ days. OGLE-2015-BLG-0845 is the first single-lens event in which the lens mass is measured via the binarity of the source. Given the abundance of binary systems as potential microlensing sources, the xallarap effect may not be a rare phenomenon. Our work thus highlights the application of the xallarap effect in the mass determination of microlenses, and the same method can be used to identify isolated dark lenses.

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Systematic KMTNet Planetary Anomaly Search. X. Complete Sample of 2017 Prime-Field Planets

We complete the analysis of planetary candidates found by the KMT AnomalyFinder for the 2017 prime fields that cover $\sim 13\,{\rm deg}^2$. We report 3 unambiguous planets: OGLE-2017-BLG-0640, OGLE-2017-BLG-1275, and OGLE-2017-BLG-1237. The first two of these were not previously identified, while the last was not previously published due to technical complications induced by a nearby variable. We further report that a fourth anomalous event, the previously recognized OGLE-2017-BLG-1777, is very likely to be planetary, although its light curve requires unusually complex modeling because the lens and source both have orbiting companions. One of the 3 unambiguous planets, OGLE-2017-BLG-1275 is the first AnomalyFinder discovery that has a {\it Spitzer} microlens parallax measurement, $π_E \sim 0.045\pm0.015$, implying that this planetary system almost certainly lies in the Galactic bulge. In the order listed, the four planetary events have planet-host mass ratios $q$, and normalized projected separations $s$, of $(\log q,s)$ = $(-2.31,0.61)$, $(-2.06,0.63/1.09)$, $(-2.10,1.04)$, and $(-2.86,0.72)$. Combined with previously published events, the 2017 AnomalyFinder prime fields contain 11 unambiguous planets with well-measured $q$ and one very likely candidate, of which 3 are AnomalyFinder discoveries. In addition to these 12, there are three other unambiguous planets with large uncertainties in $q$.

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OGLE-2016-BLG-1195 AO: Lens, Companion to Lens or Source, or None of the Above?

We systematically investigate the claim by Vandorou et al. (2023) to have detected the host star of the low mass-ratio ($q<10^{-4}$) microlensing planet OGLE-2016-BLG-1195Lb, via Keck adaptive optics (AO) measurements $Δt=4.12\,$yr after the peak of the event ($t_0$). If correct, this measurement would contradict the microlens parallax measurement derived from Spitzer observations in solar orbit taken near $t_0$. We show that this host identification would be in $4\,σ$ conflict with the original ground-based lens-source relative proper-motion measurements. By contrast, Gould (2022) estimated a probability $p=10\%$ that the ``other star'' resolved by single-epoch late-time AO would be a companion to the host or the microlensed source, which is much more probable than a 4$\,σ$ statistical fluctuation. In addition, independent of this proper-motion discrepancy, the kinematics of this host-identification are substantially less probable than those of the Spitzer solution. Hence, this identification should not be accepted, pending additional observations that would either confirm or contradict it, which could be taken in 2023. Motivated by this tension, we present two additional investigations. We explore the possibility that Vandorou et al. (2023) identified the wrong ``star'' (or stellar asterism) on which to conduct their analysis. We find that astrometry of KMT and Keck images favors a star (or asterism) lying about 175 mas northwest of the one that they chose. We also present event parameters from a combined fit to all survey data, which yields, in particular, a more precise mass ratio, $q=(4.6\pm 0.4)\times 10^{-5}$. Finally, we discuss the broader implications of minimizing such false positives for the first measurement of the planet mass function, which will become possible when AO on next-generation telescopes are applied to microlensing planets.

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OGLE-2017-BLG-1038: A Possible Brown-dwarf Binary Revealed by Spitzer Microlensing Parallax

We report the analysis of microlensing event OGLE-2017-BLG-1038, observed by the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment, Korean Microlensing Telescope Network, and Spitzer telescopes. The event is caused by a giant source star in the Galactic Bulge passing over a large resonant binary lens caustic. The availability of space-based data allows the full set of physical parameters to be calculated. However, there exists an eightfold degeneracy in the parallax measurement. The four best solutions correspond to very-low-mass binaries near ($M_1 = 170^{+40}_{-50} M_J$ and $M_2 = 110^{+20}_{-30} M_J$), or well below ($M_1 = 22.5^{+0.7}_{-0.4} M_J$ and $M_2 = 13.3^{+0.4}_{-0.3} M_J$) the boundary between stars and brown dwarfs. A conventional analysis, with scaled uncertainties for Spitzer data, implies a very-low-mass brown dwarf binary lens at a distance of 2 kpc. Compensating for systematic Spitzer errors using a Gaussian process model suggests that a higher mass M-dwarf binary at 6 kpc is equally likely. A Bayesian comparison based on a galactic model favors the larger-mass solutions. We demonstrate how this degeneracy can be resolved within the next ten years through infrared adaptive-optics imaging with a 40 m class telescope.

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An Isolated Stellar-Mass Black Hole Detected Through Astrometric Microlensing

We report the first unambiguous detection and mass measurement of an isolated stellar-mass black hole (BH). We used the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) to carry out precise astrometry of the source star of the long-duration (t_E~270 days), high-magnification microlensing event MOA-2011-BLG-191/OGLE-2011-BLG-0462 (hereafter designated as MOA-11-191/OGLE-11-462), in the direction of the Galactic bulge. HST imaging, conducted at eight epochs over an interval of six years, reveals a clear relativistic astrometric deflection of the background star's apparent position. Ground-based photometry of MOA-11-191/OGLE-11-462 shows a parallactic signature of the effect of the Earth's motion on the microlensing light curve. Combining the HST astrometry with the ground-based light curve and the derived parallax, we obtain a lens mass of 7.1 +/- 1.3 Msun and a distance of 1.58 +/- 0.18 kpc. We show that the lens emits no detectable light, which, along with having a mass higher than is possible for a white dwarf or neutron star, confirms its BH nature. Our analysis also provides an absolute proper motion for the BH. The proper motion is offset from the mean motion of Galactic-disk stars at similar distances by an amount corresponding to a transverse space velocity of ~45 km/s, suggesting that the BH received a 'natal kick' from its supernova explosion. Previous mass determinations for stellar-mass BHs have come from radial-velocity measurements of Galactic X-ray binaries, and from gravitational radiation emitted by merging BHs in binary systems in external galaxies. Our mass measurement is the first for an isolated stellar-mass BH using any technique.

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OGLE-2018-BLG-0799Lb: a $q \sim 2.7 \times 10^{-3}$ Planet with Spitzer Parallax

We report the discovery and analysis of a planet in the microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-0799. The planetary signal was observed by several ground-based telescopes, and the planet-host mass ratio is $q = (2.65 \pm 0.16) \times 10^{-3}$. The ground-based observations yield a constraint on the angular Einstein radius $θ_{\rm E}$, and the microlensing parallax vector $\vecπ_{\rm E}$, is strongly constrained by the Spitzer data. However, the 2019 Spitzer baseline data reveal systematics in the Spitzer photometry, so there is ambiguity in the magnitude of the parallax. In our preferred interpretation, a full Bayesian analysis using a Galactic model indicates that the planetary system is composed of an $M_{\rm planet} = 0.26_{-0.11}^{+0.22}~M_{J}$ planet orbiting an $M_{\rm host} = 0.093_{-0.038}^{+0.082}~M_{\odot}$, at a distance of $D_{\rm L} = 3.71_{-1.70}^{+3.24}$ kpc. An alternate interpretation of the data shifts the localization of the minima along the arc-shaped microlens parallax constraints. This, in turn, yields a more massive host with median mass of $0.13 {M_{\odot}}$ at a distance of 6.3 kpc. This analysis demonstrates the robustness of the osculating circles formalism, but shows that further investigation is needed to assess how systematics affect the specific localization of the microlens parallax vector and, consequently, the inferred physical parameters.

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Systematic KMTNet Planetary Anomaly Search, Paper I: OGLE-2019-BLG-1053Lb, A Buried Terrestrial Planet

In order to exhume the buried signatures of "missing planetary caustics" in the KMTNet data, we conducted a systematic anomaly search to the residuals from point-source point-lens fits, based on a modified version of the KMTNet EventFinder algorithm. This search reveals the lowest mass-ratio planetary caustic to date in the microlensing event OGLE-2019-BLG-1053, for which the planetary signal had not been noticed before. The planetary system has a planet-host mass ratio of $q = (1.25 \pm 0.13) \times 10^{-5}$. A Bayesian analysis yields estimates of the mass of the host star, $M_{\rm host} = 0.61_{-0.24}^{+0.29}~M_\odot$, the mass of its planet, $M_{\rm planet} = 2.48_{-0.98}^{+1.19}~M_{\oplus}$, the projected planet-host separation, $a_\perp = 3.4_{-0.5}^{+0.5}$ au, and the lens distance of $D_{\rm L} = 6.8_{-0.9}^{+0.6}$ kpc. The discovery of this very low mass-ratio planet illustrates the utility of our method and opens a new window for a large and homogeneous sample to study the microlensing planet-host mass-ratio function down to $q \sim 10^{-5}$.

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Systematic KMTNet Planetary Anomaly Search. V. Complete Sample of 2018 Prime-Field

We complete the analysis of all 2018 prime-field microlensing planets identified by the KMTNet AnomalyFinder. Among the 10 previously unpublished events with clear planetary solutions, 8 are either unambiguously planetary or are very likely to be planetary in nature: OGLE-2018-BLG-1126, KMT-2018-BLG-2004, OGLE-2018-BLG-1647, OGLE-2018-BLG-1367, OGLE-2018-BLG-1544, OGLE-2018-BLG-0932, OGLE-2018-BLG-1212, and KMT-2018-BLG-2718. Combined with the 4 previously published new AnomalyFinder events and 12 previously published (or in preparation) planets that were discovered by eye, thismakes a total of 24 2018 prime-field planets discovered or recovered by AnomalyFinder. Together with a paper in preparation on 2018 sub-prime planets, this work lays the basis for the first statistical analysis of the planet mass-ratio function based on planets identified in KMTNet data. By systematically applying the heuristic analysis of Hwang et al. (2022) to each event, we identify the small modification in their formalism that is needed to unify the so-called close/wide and inner/outer degeneracies, as conjectured by

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OGLE-2016-BLG-1093Lb: A Sub-Jupiter-mass Spitzer Planet Located in Galactic Bulge

OGLE-2016-BLG-1093 is a planetary microlensing event that is part of the statistical $Spitzer$ microlens parallax sample. The precise measurement of the microlens parallax effect for this event, combined with the measurement of finite source effects, leads to a direct measurement of the lens masses and system distance: $M_{\rm host} = 0.38$--$0.57\, M_{\odot}$, $m_p = 0.59$--$0.87\, M_{\rm Jup}$, and the system is located at the Galactic bulge ($D_L \sim 8.1$ kpc). Because this was a high-magnification event, we are also able to empirically show that the "cheap-space parallax" concept Gould & Yee (2012) produces well-constrained (and consistent) results for $|π_{\rm E}|$. This demonstrates that this concept can be extended to many two-body lenses. Finally, we briefly explore systematics in the $Spitzer$ light curve in this event and show that their potential impact is strongly mitigated by the color-constraint.

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OGLE-2019-BLG-0960Lb: The Smallest Microlensing Planet

We report the analysis of OGLE-2019-BLG-0960, which contains the smallest mass-ratio microlensing planet found to date (q = 1.2--1.6 x 10^{-5} at 1-sigma). Although there is substantial uncertainty in the satellite parallax measured by Spitzer, the measurement of the annual parallax effect combined with the finite source effect allows us to determine the mass of the host star (M_L = 0.3--0.6 M_Sun), the mass of its planet (m_p = 1.4--3.1 M_Earth), the projected separation between the host and planet (a_perp = 1.2--2.3 au), and the distance to the lens system (D_L = 0.6--1.2 kpc). The lens is plausibly the blend, which could be checked with adaptive optics observations. As the smallest planet clearly below the break in the mass-ratio function (Suzuki et al. 2016; Jung et al. 2019), it demonstrates that current experiments are powerful enough to robustly measure the slope of the mass-ratio function below that break. We find that the cross-section for detecting small planets is maximized for planets with separations just outside of the boundary for resonant caustics and that sensitivity to such planets can be maximized by intensively monitoring events whenever they are magnified by a factor A > 5. Finally, an empirical investigation demonstrates that most planets showing a degeneracy between (s > 1) and (s < 1) solutions are not in the regime (|log s| >> 0) for which the "close"/"wide" degeneracy was derived. This investigation suggests a link between the "close"/"wide" and "inner/outer" degeneracies and also that the symmetry in the lens equation goes much deeper than symmetries uncovered for the limiting cases.

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Predictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey II: Free-Floating Planet Detection Rates

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) will perform a Galactic Exoplanet Survey (RGES) to discover bound exoplanets with semi-major axes greater than 1 au using gravitational microlensing. Roman will even be sensitive to planetary mass objects that are not gravitationally bound to any host star. Such free-floating planetary mass objects (FFPs) will be detected as isolated microlensing events with timescales shorter than a few days. A measurement of the abundance and mass function of FFPs is a powerful diagnostic of the formation and evolution of planetary systems, as well as the physics of the formation of isolated objects via direct collapse. We show that Roman will be sensitive to FFP lenses that have masses from that of Mars ($0.1 M_\oplus$) to gas giants ($M\gtrsim100M_\oplus$) as isolated lensing events with timescales from a few hours to several tens of days, respectively. We investigate the impact of the detection criteria on the survey, especially in the presence of finite-source effects for low-mass lenses. The number of detections will depend on the abundance of such FFPs as a function of mass, which is at present poorly constrained. Assuming that FFPs follow the fiducial mass function of cold, bound planets adapted from Cassan et al. (2012), we estimate that Roman will detect $\sim250$ FFPs with masses down to that of Mars (including $\sim 60$ with masses $\le M_\oplus$). We also predict that Roman will improve the upper limits on FFP populations by at least an order of magnitude compared to currently-existing constraints.

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Pixel Level Decorrelation in Service of the \textit{Spitzer} Microlens Parallax Survey

Microlens parallax measurements combining space-based and ground-based observatories can be used to study planetary demographics. In recent years, the Spitzer Space Telescope was used as a microlens parallax satellite. Meanwhile, \textit{Spitzer} IRAC has been employed to study short-period exoplanets and their atmospheres. As these investigations require exquisite photometry, they motivated the development of numerous self-calibration techniques now widely used in the exoplanet atmosphere community. Specifically, Pixel Level Decorrelation (PLD) was developed for starring-mode observations in uncrowded fields. We adapt and extend PLD to make it suitable for observations obtained as part of the \textit{Spitzer} Microlens Parallax Campaign. We apply our method to two previously published microlensing events, OGLE-2017-BLG-1140 and OGLE-2015-BLG-0448, and compare its performance to the state-of-the-art pipeline used to analyses \textit{Spitzer} microlensing observation. We find that our method yields photometry 1.5--6 times as precise as previously published. In addition to being useful for \textit{Spitzer}, a similar approach could improve microlensing photometry with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope.

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OGLE-2017-BLG-0406: ${\it Spitzer}$ Microlens Parallax Reveals Saturn-mass Planet orbiting M-dwarf Host in the Inner Galactic Disk

We report the discovery and analysis of the planetary microlensing event OGLE-2017-BLG-0406, which was observed both from the ground and by the ${\it Spitzer}$ satellite in a solar orbit. At high magnification, the anomaly in the light curve was densely observed by ground-based-survey and follow-up groups, and it was found to be explained by a planetary lens with a planet/host mass ratio of $q=7.0 \times 10^{-4}$ from the light-curve modeling. The ground-only and ${\it Spitzer}$-"only" data each provide very strong one-dimensional (1-D) constraints on the 2-D microlens parallax vector $\bf{π_{\rm E}}$. When combined, these yield a precise measurement of $\bf{π_{\rm E}}$, and so of the masses of the host $M_{\rm host}=0.56\pm0.07\,M_\odot$ and planet $M_{\rm planet} = 0.41 \pm 0.05\,M_{\rm Jup}$. The system lies at a distance $D_{\rm L}=5.2 \pm 0.5 \ {\rm kpc}$ from the Sun toward the Galactic bulge, and the host is more likely to be a disk population star according to the kinematics of the lens. The projected separation of the planet from the host is $a_{\perp} = 3.5 \pm 0.3 \ {\rm au}$, i.e., just over twice the snow line. The Galactic-disk kinematics are established in part from a precise measurement of the source proper motion based on OGLE-IV data. By contrast, the ${\it Gaia}$ proper-motion measurement of the source suffers from a catastrophic $10\,σ$ error.

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