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Sebastiano D. von Fellenberg

Publications and source records attributed to Sebastiano D. von Fellenberg.

18 recordsLinked to original sources

Ionization Structure and Metal Enrichment of the Galactic Center Minispiral Observed with JWST

Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) is the nearest quiescent supermassive black hole, and its proximity offers a unique opportunity to study its surrounding fuel supply. We leverage extensive spatial and spectroscopic information provided by the JWST/MIRI MRS instrument to disentangle mid-infrared ionized gas structures in the central 0.1 parsec of the Galaxy. The Galactic Minispiral's Bar and Northern Arm are revealed by their distinct morphological and kinematic signatures. Several compact (<1 arcsec) gas structures including X7 also appear within ~0.05 parsec of Sgr A* in the plane of the sky, moving with blue-shifted radial velocities >~600 km/s. Fine-structure-line measurements spanning ionization potentials ~7-55 eV are used to constrain the incident radiation field, metal abundances (neon, argon, sulfur, nickel, and iron), and dust depletion/destruction for each identified gas structure. Overall, the Minispiral gas shows mildly super-solar abundances (~1.8*solar), a Wolf--Rayet star-driven radiation field consistent with ionization parameters spanning -1.6<~log U<~-0.6, and significant nickel and iron dust destruction. In particular, the enhanced ionization state and strong dust processing in the high-velocity compact gas structures suggest that these features may experience localized fast shocks.

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Infrared Line Diagnostics Fail to Constrain Sgr A*'s UV Output

Sgr A*, the 4 x $10^6 M_{sun}$ supermassive black hole at the Galactic Center, exhibits frequent flaring with X-ray luminosities of $L_X \sim 10^{35}-10^{36}$ erg s$^{-1}$, while its ultraviolet (UV) emission remains unconstrained due to extreme extinction ($A_V \sim 30$ mag). We use JWST/MIRI time-resolved spectroscopy of the central 0.3" region to search for mid-infrared emission line variability driven by Sgr A* flares, comparing the results to CLOUDY photoionization models spanning flare luminosities of $L_{UV} = 10^{32}$-$10^{39}$ erg s$^{-1}$. We detect no continuum-correlated variability in any mid-infrared line, including [Fe II] (5.34 $μ$m), [Ne II] (12.813 $μ$m), [Fe II] (17.936 $μ$m), and [S III] (18.713 $μ$m) over lags of $\sim1$-8~hr. Despite expectations of a flare-driven response, we show that the lack of variability is consistent with the physical conditions in the spatially extended line-emitting gas, where light-crossing timescales of $\sim0.1$-$10$ days and recombination and cooling timescales much longer than the variability timescales suppress any observable response to individual flares. We further find that the modeled infrared spectra are dominated by continuum emission rather than isolated line emission. The brightest predicted lines are intrinsically weak (lower than 10$^{-5}$ mJy), and their detectability is further reduced by the large kinematic broadening expected at the CLOUDY-predicted emitting radii, reducing their contrast against the continuum. Extending the analysis to higher-ionization mid-infrared and near-infrared lines does not improve sensitivity. These results demonstrate that infrared emission lines trace a steady-state radiation field rather than individual flaring events, and therefore infrared line diagnostics cannot be used to constrain the instantaneous UV flux of Sgr A*.

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Dynamics and geometry of the inner sub-parsec-scale jet in 3C 279 observed with the Event Horizon Telescope

The 2021 Event Horizon Telescope observations resolve the innermost jet region of the blazar 3C279 with unprecedented detail. The reconstructed images consistently reveal a compact core elongated nearly orthogonal to the large-scale jet axis. This rarely observed morphology recurs across multiple epochs and from 22-230 GHz and is therefore intrinsic rather than an imaging artifact. Geometric model fitting identifies several components with apparent speeds up to 10c, requiring bulk Lorentz factors greater than 10.3 and constraining viewing angles to extremely small values (smaller than one degree). Rest-frame brightness temperatures are systematically low (between 10^9 and 10^10 K), consistent with optically thin emission at 230 GHz. These results suggest that the jet bends toward the observer on sub-parsec scales, producing strong relativistic beaming. Possible drivers of the observed jet bending and temporal evolution include the jet's interaction with the interstellar medium, kink or Kelvin--Helmholtz instabilities, magnetic reconnection near the horizon, or binary-induced precession. However, the current temporal coverage of VLBI data remains insufficient to distinguish between these mechanisms. Continued multifrequency VLBI monitoring will be essential to constraining the dynamics and geometry of the jet base in 3C279.

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The Demographics of Sagittarius A* X-ray Flares over 25 Years with Chandra

We present the Chandra 25-year Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) X-ray flare catalog: a systematic analysis of 6.8 Ms of Sgr A* monitoring spanning the Chandra X-ray Observatory's mission lifetime. This is the most complete Chandra Sgr A* X-ray flare catalog to date, consisting of 100 flares with 2$-$10 keV unabsorbed luminosities ranging from $\sim$ 4$-$575 $\times 10^{33}$ erg s$^{-1}$. 18 flares are reported for the first time, including the second brightest Sgr A* flare observed by Chandra. The expanded dataset supports previous indications of a correlation between X-ray flare hardness and luminosity. Spectral modeling corroborates this finding, showing a change in the X-ray spectral index, from $Γ\sim 3$ to 2 with increasing flare brightness. Previously-established correlations between flare duration, fluence, and maximum count rate are strengthened via the greater sample size. These results likely reflect variations in the underlying particle distribution that produce weak and strong flares, and the new catalog serves as a rich archive for ongoing observational and numerical investigations into the physical mechanisms responsible for producing Sgr A*'s X-ray flares.

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Constraining the Galactic Center Dark Cluster with ELT/MICADO Observations

The Galactic Center hosts the densest known stellar environment in the Milky Way, dominated by the massive black hole Sgr A* and the surrounding nuclear star cluster. Theory predicts that this region should also contain a large population of stellar compact objects (SCOs) - black holes, neutron stars, and white dwarfs - forming a "dark cluster" whose distribution and properties remain observationally unconstrained. These unseen stellar remnants are central to questions of mass segregation, cluster dynamics, and the expected rate of extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs) detectable by future gravitational-wave observatories including LISA. Current evidence for SCOs in the Galactic Center is indirect, relying on dynamical mass measurements, X-ray surveys, and a small number of transient sources. Direct detections remain elusive due to crowding, extinction, and the sensitivity limits of existing instruments. We explore how upcoming facilities, in particular the Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) with its first-light imager MICADO, can fundamentally transform this field. MICADO's combination of deep photometry, high spatial resolution, and precise astrometry will enable systematic searches for SCO-star binaries via photometric variability and orbital astrometric signatures, as well as direct detection of isolated accreting black holes interacting with the gas-rich Galactic Center environment. We outline the observational pathways, technical challenges, and expected sensitivities, showing that ELT/MICADO observations can provide the first quantitative constraints on the dark cluster population. Establishing these constraints will be pivotal for understanding the dynamical evolution of the Galactic Center, the role of compact remnants in nuclear star clusters, and the astrophysical context of gravitational-wave sources in galactic nuclei.

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Detection and Evolution of Linear Polarization of the Galactic Center Transient MAXI J1744-294

MAXI J1744$-$294, likely a low-mass X-ray binary system, is a Galactic-center transient source, detected at radio and X-ray wavelengths, located approximately $19''$ southeast of Sgr A*. We report the first detection of its variable linear polarization in four epochs spanning 2025 Apr 04--09. The normalized 33 and 43 GHz Stokes parameters $q$ and $u$ over the four epochs imply a common Faraday rotation screen with a rotation measure RM $=-63\,606^{+844}_{-861}$ radians m$^{-2}$, the third largest RM detected within the Galaxy. The RM is consistent with that of the Galactic center magnetar PSR J1745$-$2900, giving the first direct evidence that MAXI J1744 lies within the Galactic center region, is bound to Sgr A*, and therefore, is part of the nuclear star cluster. The uniformity in the Galactic center Faraday screen suggests that Sgr A*'s $\approx-10^5$ rad m$^{-2}$ RM is intrinsic rather than originating from an unrelated line-of-sight source. On 2025 Apr 06, we detected a secondary polarized component with an additional RM $\approx-6000$ rad m$^{-2}$, which was not seen at any other epoch. Assuming this secondary component primarily cools by synchrotron radiation, the implied local magnetic field strength is $\sim$15--30 gauss. In the context of a jetted X-ray binary progenitor, the additional RM screen and magnetic field strength are explainable with a short-lived knot in a putative jet.

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Locating the missing large-scale emission in the jet of M87* with short EHT baselines

In Very-Long Baseline Interferometric arrays, nearly co-located stations probe the largest scales and typically cannot resolve the observed source. In the absence of large-scale structure, closure phases constructed with these stations are zero and, since they are independent of station-based errors, they can be used to probe data issues. Here, we show with an expansion about co-located stations, how these trivial closure phases become non-zero with brightness distribution on smaller scales than their short baseline would suggest. When applied to sources that are made up of a bright compact and large-scale diffuse component, the trivial closure phases directly measure the centroid relative to the compact source and higher-order image moments. We present a technique to measure these image moments with minimal model assumptions and validate it on synthetic Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) data. We then apply this technique to 2017 and 2018 EHT observations of M87* and find a weak preference for extended emission in the direction of the large-scale jet. We also apply it to 2021 EHT data and measure the source centroid about 1 mas northwest of the compact ring, consistent with the jet observed at lower frequencies.

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Probing jet base emission of M87* with the 2021 Event Horizon Telescope observations

We investigate the presence and spatial characteristics of the jet base emission in M87* at 230 GHz, enabled by the enhanced uv coverage in the 2021 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations. The addition of the 12-m Kitt Peak Telescope and NOEMA provides two key intermediate-length baselines to SMT and the IRAM 30-m, giving sensitivity to emission structures at scales of $\sim250~μ$as and $\sim2500~μ$as (0.02 pc and 0.2 pc). Without these baselines, earlier EHT observations lacked the capability to constrain emission on large scales, where a "missing flux" of order $\sim1$ Jy is expected. To probe these scales, we analyzed closure phases, robust against station-based gain errors, and modeled the jet base emission using a simple Gaussian offset from the compact ring emission at separations $>100~μ$as. Our analysis reveals a Gaussian feature centered at ($Δ$RA $\approx320~μ$as, $Δ$Dec $\approx60~μ$as), a projected separation of $\approx5500$ AU, with a flux density of only $\sim60$ mJy, implying that most of the missing flux in previous studies must arise from larger scales. Brighter emission at these scales is ruled out, and the data do not favor more complex models. This component aligns with the inferred direction of the large-scale jet and is consistent with emission from the jet base. While our findings indicate detectable jet base emission at 230 GHz, coverage from only two intermediate baselines limits reconstruction of its morphology. We therefore treat the recovered Gaussian as an upper limit on the jet base flux density. Future EHT observations with expanded intermediate-baseline coverage will be essential to constrain the structure and nature of this component.

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First Mid-infrared Detection and Modeling of a Flare from Sgr A*. II. Mid-IR Spectral Energy Distribution and Millimeter Polarimetry

S. D. von Fellenberg et al. (2025a, Paper I) reported the first mid-infrared detection of a flare from Sgr A*. The JWST/MIRI/MRS observations were consistent with an orbiting hotspot undergoing electron injection with a spectrum that subsequently breaks from synchrotron cooling. However, mid-infrared extinction measurements appropriate for these data were not yet determined, and therefore the temporal evolution of the absolute spectral index remained unknown. This work applies new Galactic Center extinction measurements to the flare observations. The evolution of the spectral index after the peak is fully consistent with that reported in Paper I with a maximum absolute mid-infrared spectral index $α_{\rm{MIR}}=0.45\pm0.01_{\rm{stat}}\pm0.08_{\rm{sys}}$ during the second mid-infrared flare peak, matching the known near-infrared spectral index during bright states ($α_{\rm{NIR}}\approx0.5$). There was a near-instantaneous change in the mid-infrared spectral index of $Δα_{\rm{MIR}}=0.33\pm0.06_{\rm{stat}}\pm0.11_{\rm{sys}}$ at the flare onset. We propose this as a quantitative definition for this infrared flare's beginning, physically interpreted as the underlying electron distribution's transition into a hard power-law distribution. This paper also reports the SMA millimeter polarization during the flare, which shows a small, distorted, but overall clockwise-oriented Stokes Q--U loop during the third mid-infrared peak. Extrapolating the mid-infrared flux power law to the millimeter yields a variable flux consistent with the observed 220 GHz emission. These results, together with the Paper I modeling, plausibly suggest a single hotspot produced both the mid-infrared and millimeter variability during this event. However, additional flares are required to make a general statement about the millimeter and mid-infrared connection.

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Photometric Constraints on Intermediate-mass Black Holes in the Galactic Centre

JWST/MIRI observations can place photometric limits on the presence of an intermediate-mass black hole (IMBH) near the Galactic Centre. The stellar complex IRS 13E, a co-moving conglomerate of young and massive stars, is a prime location to study because it has been speculated to be bound by an IMBH. Assuming a standard radiatively inefficient accretion flow (RIAF) and a minimum fractional variability of 10% of intrinsic luminosity, the wavelength of peak emission in the spectral energy distribution for an IMBH would lie in the mid-infrared ($\sim$ 5-25 $μ$m), and variability would be detectable in MIRI time-series observations. Monitoring fails to detect such variable emission (other than from Sgr A*) in and around the IRS 13E complex, and upper limits on a putative IMBH's intrinsic variability on timescales of minutes to about 1 hour are $\lesssim$1 mJy at 12 $μ$m and $\lesssim$2 mJy at 19 $μ$m. These translate to luminosities $\lesssim 25 \times 10^{32}$ erg/s. The resulting limits on the IMBH mass and accretion rate rule out any IMBH with mass $\gtrsim 10^3$ M$_\odot$ accreting at $\gtrsim 10^{-6}$ times Eddington rate at the location of IRS 13E. Further, the observations rule out an IMBH anywhere in the central 6" $\times$ 6" region that is more massive than $\approx$ 2 $\times 10^3$ M$_\odot$ and accreting at $\gtrsim 10^{-6}$ of the Eddington rate. Assuming Bondi accretion scaled to typical RIAF-accretion efficiencies, albeit somewhat uncertain, also allows us to rule out IMBHs moving with typical velocities of about 200 km/s and masses $\gtrsim 2 \times 10^3$ M$_\odot$. These methods showcase the effectiveness of photometric variability measurements in constraining the presence of accreting black holes in Galactic centre-like environments.

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Mid-infrared extinction toward the Galactic center

We determine the mid-infrared (MIR, $\sim$5~μm--22~μm) extinction towards the Galactic center using MIRI/MRS integral field unit (IFU) observations of the central $3''\times3''$ region (near 5~μm) to $7''\times7''$ region (near 22~μm). To measure the MIR extinction, we employ two approaches: modeling the intrinsic-to-observed dust thermal spectrum and assessing the differential extinction between hydrogen recombination lines. Expanding on prior work, we directly model the dust-opacity distribution along the line of sight, and we make available a Python code that provides a flexible tool for deriving intrinsic dust emission spectra. We confirm the spatial variability of extinction across the field, demonstrating that dusty sources--such as IRS~29N--exhibit higher local extinction. Furthermore, we verify the absence of PAH emission features in the Galactic center MIR spectra. Using the two complementary methods, we derive a refined ``best guess'' MIR extinction law for Sgr A* and the surrounding Galactic-center region. By applying the extinction law to a MIR flare measurement discussed in a companion paper Michail et al. 2025, we estimate a residual relative extinction uncertainty for the short MIRI/MRS grating on the order of $0.2~\mathrm{mag}$ {from $\sim$5 to $\sim$18~μm\ and $\sim$0.3~mag from $\sim$18 to $\sim$22~μm}, consistent with our uncertainty estimate.

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Impact of a granular mass distribution on the orbit of S2 in the Galactic center

The orbit of the S2 star around Sagittarius A* provides a unique opportunity to test general relativity and study dynamical processes near a supermassive black hole. Observations have shown that the orbit of S2 is consistent with a Schwarzschild orbit at a 10$σ$ confidence level, constraining the amount of extended mass within its orbit to less than 1200 M$_\odot$, under the assumption of a smooth, spherically symmetric mass distribution. In this work we investigate the effects on the S2 orbit of granularity in the mass distribution, assuming it consists of a cluster of equal-mass objects surrounding Sagittarius A*. Using a fast dynamical approach validated by full N-body simulations, we perform a large set of simulations of the motion of S2 with different realizations of the cluster objects distribution. We find that granularity can induce significant deviations from the orbit in case of a smooth potential, causing precession of the orbital plane and a variation of the in-plane precession. Interactions with the cluster objects also induce a sort of "Brownian motion" of Sagittarius A*. Mock data analysis reveals that these effects could produce observable deviations in the trajectory of S2 from a Schwarzschild orbit, especially near apocenter. During the next apocenter passage of S2 in 2026, astrometric residuals in Declination may exceed the astrometric accuracy threshold of GRAVITY of about 30 $μas$, as it happens in 35 to 60% of simulations for black holes of 20 to 100 M$_\odot$. This presents a unique opportunity to detect, for the first time, scattering effects on the orbit of S2 caused by stellar-mass black holes, thanks to the remarkable precision achievable with GRAVITY. We also demonstrate that any attempt to constrain the extended mass enclosed within the orbit of S2 must explicitly account for granularity in the stellar-mass black hole population.

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First mid-infrared detection and modeling of a flare from Sgr A*

The time-variable emission from the accretion flow of Sgr A*, the supermassive black hole at the Galactic Center, has long been examined in the radio-to-mm, near-infrared (NIR), and X-ray regimes of the electromagnetic spectrum. However, until now, sensitivity and angular resolution have been insufficient in the crucial mid-infrared (MIR) regime. The MIRI instrument on JWST has changed that, and we report the first MIR detection of Sgr A*. The detection was during a flare that lasted about 40 minutes, a duration similar to NIR and X-ray flares, and the source's spectral index steepened as the flare ended. The steepening suggests synchrotron cooling is an important process for Sgr A*'s variability and implies magnetic field strengths $\sim$40--70 Gauss in the emission zone. Observations at $1.3~\mathrm{mm}$ with the Submillimeter Array revealed a counterpart flare lagging the MIR flare by $\approx$10 minutes. The observations can be self-consistently explained as synchrotron radiation from a single population of gradually cooling high-energy electrons accelerated through (a combination of) magnetic reconnection and/or magnetized turbulence.

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Demographics of black holes at $<$100 R$_{\rm g}$ scales: accretion flows, jets, and shadows

Using the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), the gravitationally lensed rings around the supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in Messier 87 (M87) and Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) have now been successfully imaged at a resolution under 10 gravitational radii (R$_{\rm g}$ $ = \rm{GM/c^2}$). To expand studies beyond M87 and Sgr A*, we have constructed the Event Horizon and Environs (ETHER) sample, a comprehensive database encompassing approximately 3.15 million SMBH mass estimates, $\sim$ 20,000 Very-Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) radio flux densities, and $\sim$ 36,000 hard X-ray flux densities. This database is designed to identify and optimize target selection for the EHT and its upgrades on the ground and in space. We have identified a Gold Sample (GS) of nearby low-luminosity Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) within it that are ideal for studying jet bases and potentially imaging black hole shadows. We observed 27 of these AGNs using the EHT from 2022 to 2024, providing an opportunity to resolve and image accretion flows and jets at resolutions of $\leq$ 100 R$_{\rm g}$. Only a few SMBHs have sufficiently high enough flux density to be imaged at scales of $\leq$ 50 R$_{\rm g}$ with the present EHT. Among these are M87, Sgr A*, NGC4594 (Sombrero/M104), NGC4261, and NGC4374 (Messier 84/M84). Of these, NGC4261, Sombrero, and M84 have been observed and/or are scheduled for deep imaging with EHT+ALMA from 2023 to 2025. Sombrero, NGC4261, M84, NGC4278, and NGC5232 are clearly detected in our EHT+ALMA observations in 2022, indicating that the 230 GHz flux density from the accretion flows is significantly high. Ongoing imaging of the ETHER GS will enable measurements of black hole mass and spin, help constrain General Relativity, and enrich our understanding of jet launching and accretion inflows across a broad multi-parameter space, including black hole mass, spin, accretion rate, and orientation.

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Fragments of harmony amid apparent chaos: a closer look at the X-ray quasi-periodic eruptions of the galaxy RX J1301.9+2747

Quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) are an extreme X-ray variability phenomenon associated with low-mass supermassive black holes. First discovered in the nucleus of the galaxy GSN 069, they have been so far securely detected in five other galaxies, including RX J1301.9+2747. When detected, the out-of-QPE emission (quiescence) is consistent with the high-energy tail of thermal emission from an accretion disk. We present the X-ray and radio properties of RX J1301.9+2747, both in quiescence and during QPEs. We analyse X-ray data taken during five XMM-Newton observations between 2000 and 2022. The last three observations were taken in coordination with radio observations with the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array. We also make use of EXOSAT, ROSAT, and Chandra archival observations taken between 1983 and 2009. XMM-Newton detected 34 QPEs of which 8 have significantly lower amplitudes than the others. No correlated radio/X-ray variability was observed during QPEs. In terms of timing properties, the QPEs in RX J1301.9+2747 do not exhibit the striking regularity observed in the discovery source GSN 069. In fact there is no clear repetition pattern between QPEs: the average time separation between their peaks is about four hours, but it can be as short as one, and as long as six hours. The QPE spectral properties of RX J1301.9+2747 as a function of energy are however very similar to those of GSN 069 and of other QPE sources. The quiescent emission of RX J1301.9+2747 is more complex than that of GSN 069, as it requires a soft X-ray excess-like component in addition to the thermal emission from the accretion disk. Its long-term X-ray quiescent flux variations are of low-amplitude and not strictly monotonic, with a general decay over $\sim 22$ years. We discuss our observational results in terms of some of the ideas and models that have been proposed so far for the physical origin of QPEs.

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General Relativistic effects and the NIR variability of Sgr A* II: A systematic approach to temporal asymmetry

A systematic study, based on the third-moment structure function, of Sgr A*'s variability finds an exponential rise time $τ_{1,\rm{obs}}=14.8^{+0.4}_{-1.5}~\mathrm{minutes}$ and decay time $τ_{2,\rm{obs}}=13.1^{+1.3}_{-1.4}~\mathrm{minutes}$. This symmetry of the flux-density variability is consistent with earlier work, and we interpret it as caused by the dominance of Doppler boosting, as opposed to gravitational lensing, in Sgr~A*'s light curve. A relativistic, semi-physical model of Sgr~A* confirms an inclination angle $i<45$ degrees. The model also shows that the emission of the intrinsic radiative process can have some asymmetry even though the observed emission does not. The third-moment structure function, which is a measure of the skewness of the light-curve increments, may be a useful summary statistic in other contexts of astronomy because it senses only temporal asymmetry, i.e., it averages to zero for any temporally symmetric signal.

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General relativistic effects and the near-infrared and X-ray variability of Sgr A* I

The near-infrared (NIR) and X-ray emission of Sagittarius A* shows occasional bright flares that are assumed to originate from the innermost region of the accretion flow. We identified $25$ $4.5 μm$ and $24$ X-ray flares in archival data obtained with the \textit{Spitzer} and \textit{Chandra} observatories. With the help of general relativistic ray-tracing code, we modeled trajectories of ``hot spots'' and studied the light curves of the flares for signs of the effects of general relativity. Despite their apparent diversity in shape, all flares share a common, exponential impulse response, a characteristic shape that is the building block of the variability. This shape is symmetric, that is, the rise and fall times are the same. Furthermore, the impulse responses in the NIR and X-ray are identical within uncertainties, with an exponential time constant $τ\sim 15$ minute. The observed characteristic flare shape is inconsistent with hot-spot orbits viewed edge-on. Individually modeling the light curves of the flares, we derived constraints on the inclination of the orbital plane of the hot spots with respect to the observer ($i \sim 30^{\circ} , < 75^{\circ} $) and on the characteristic timescale of the intrinsic variability (tens of minutes).

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A Detection of Sgr A* in the far infrared

We report the first detection of the Galactic Centre massive black hole, Sgr~A*, in the far infrared. Our measurements were obtained with PACS on board the \emph{Herschel} satellite at $100~\mathrm{μm}$ and $160~\mathrm{μm}$. While the warm dust in the Galactic Centre is too bright to allow for a direct detection of Sgr~A*, we measure a significant and simultaneous variation of its flux of $ΔF_{ν\widehat{=}160 ~\mathrm{μm}} = (0.27\pm0.06)~\mathrm{Jy}$ and $ΔF_{ν\widehat{=}100 ~\mathrm{μm}}= (0.16\pm0.10)~\mathrm{Jy}$ during one observation. The significance level of the $160 ~\mathrm{μm}$ band variability is $4.5σ$ and the corresponding $100 ~\mathrm{μm}$ band variability is significant at $1.6σ$. We find no example of an equally significant false positive detection. Conservatively assuming a variability of $25\%$ in the FIR, we can provide upper limits to the flux. Comparing the latter with theoretical models we find that 1D RIAF models have difficulties explaining the observed faintness. However, the upper limits are consistent with modern ALMA and VLA observations. Our upper limits provide further evidence for a spectral peak at $\sim 10^{12} ~ \mathrm{Hz}$ and constrain the number density of $γ\sim 100$ electrons in the accretion disk and or outflow.

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