Rank-one variance inflation in polynomial estimation of signal parameters with a sign-preserving fractional-power basis
The polynomial maximization method estimates signal parameters in non-Gaussian noise from a finite description of the noise by its moments and cumulants, without a density. Known accuracy results assume that these noise characteristics are known, or use a design in which estimating them jointly costs no accuracy. In practice they are estimated from the residuals of a preliminary fit, and the effect of this substitution on accuracy is unknown. We treat the feasible scheme as a two-step estimator and, for a general smooth signal model in a fixed design, find the increment of its asymptotic covariance in closed form: $Σ_{\rm fe}-Σ_{\rm or}=c_2(1-g_{\rm or}) Q^{-1}\bar{d}\bar{d}^{\top}Q^{-1}$, a positive semidefinite matrix of rank at most one. Here $c_2$ is the noise variance, $g_{\rm or}\le 1$ the oracle variance reduction factor, and $Q$ and $\bar{d}$ the second-moment matrix and mean of the signal gradient over the design. Estimating the fractional moments that form the weights costs no first-order accuracy, because that block is orthogonal; the whole increment comes from estimating the sign-preserving centering means. The increment lies along the single direction $Q^{-1}\bar{d}$, so linear combinations of the parameters orthogonal to it keep oracle accuracy. In the trace metric the variance reduction factor becomes $g_{\rm fe}=g_{\rm or}+(1-g_{\rm or})R_D$, where $R_D=\|Q^{-1}\bar{d}\|^2/{\rm tr} Q^{-1}$ depends on the design alone. We give four sufficient conditions for first-order oracle equivalence; noise symmetry is not among them. Monte Carlo experiments with a harmonic signal confirm the direction and size of the increment. A covariance estimate that ignores the increment undercovers where non-Gaussianity gives the largest gain, symmetric noise included.