arXiv subjects

Shie Mannor

Publications and source records attributed to Shie Mannor.

At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources

arXiv2016

Bayesian Reinforcement Learning: A Survey

Bayesian methods for machine learning have been widely investigated, yielding principled methods for incorporating prior information into inference algorithms. In this survey, we provide an in-depth review of the role of Bayesian methods for the reinforcement learning (RL) paradigm. The major incentives for incorporating Bayesian reasoning in RL are: 1) it provides an elegant approach to action-selection (exploration/exploitation) as a function of the uncertainty in learning; and 2) it provides a machinery to incorporate prior knowledge into the algorithms. We first discuss models and methods for Bayesian inference in the simple single-step Bandit model. We then review the extensive recent literature on Bayesian methods for model-based RL, where prior information can be expressed on the parameters of the Markov model. We also present Bayesian methods for model-free RL, where priors are expressed over the value function or policy class. The objective of the paper is to provide a comprehensive survey on Bayesian RL algorithms and their theoretical and empirical properties.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2016

How to Allocate Resources For Features Acquisition?

We study classification problems where features are corrupted by noise and where the magnitude of the noise in each feature is influenced by the resources allocated to its acquisition. This is the case, for example, when multiple sensors share a common resource (power, bandwidth, attention, etc.). We develop a method for computing the optimal resource allocation for a variety of scenarios and derive theoretical bounds concerning the benefit that may arise by non-uniform allocation. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed method in simulations.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2016

Visualizing Dynamics: from t-SNE to SEMI-MDPs

Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) is a trending field of research, showing great promise in many challenging problems such as playing Atari, solving Go and controlling robots. While DRL agents perform well in practice we are still missing the tools to analayze their performance and visualize the temporal abstractions that they learn. In this paper, we present a novel method that automatically discovers an internal Semi Markov Decision Process (SMDP) model in the Deep Q Network's (DQN) learned representation. We suggest a novel visualization method that represents the SMDP model by a directed graph and visualize it above a t-SNE map. We show how can we interpret the agent's policy and give evidence for the hierarchical state aggregation that DQNs are learning automatically. Our algorithm is fully automatic, does not require any domain specific knowledge and is evaluated by a novel likelihood based evaluation criteria.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2016

Approachability in unknown games: Online learning meets multi-objective optimization

In the standard setting of approachability there are two players and a target set. The players play repeatedly a known vector-valued game where the first player wants to have the average vector-valued payoff converge to the target set which the other player tries to exclude it from this set. We revisit this setting in the spirit of online learning and do not assume that the first player knows the game structure: she receives an arbitrary vector-valued reward vector at every round. She wishes to approach the smallest ("best") possible set given the observed average payoffs in hindsight. This extension of the standard setting has implications even when the original target set is not approachable and when it is not obvious which expansion of it should be approached instead. We show that it is impossible, in general, to approach the best target set in hindsight and propose achievable though ambitious alternative goals. We further propose a concrete strategy to approach these goals. Our method does not require projection onto a target set and amounts to switching between scalar regret minimization algorithms that are performed in episodes. Applications to global cost minimization and to approachability under sample path constraints are considered.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2016

Deep Reinforcement Learning Discovers Internal Models

Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) is a trending field of research, showing great promise in challenging problems such as playing Atari, solving Go and controlling robots. While DRL agents perform well in practice we are still lacking the tools to analayze their performance. In this work we present the Semi-Aggregated MDP (SAMDP) model. A model best suited to describe policies exhibiting both spatial and temporal hierarchies. We describe its advantages for analyzing trained policies over other modeling approaches, and show that under the right state representation, like that of DQN agents, SAMDP can help to identify skills. We detail the automatic process of creating it from recorded trajectories, up to presenting it on t-SNE maps. We explain how to evaluate its fitness and show surprising results indicating high compatibility with the policy at hand. We conclude by showing how using the SAMDP model, an extra performance gain can be squeezed from the agent.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2016

Iterative Hierarchical Optimization for Misspecified Problems (IHOMP)

For complex, high-dimensional Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), it may be necessary to represent the policy with function approximation. A problem is misspecified whenever, the representation cannot express any policy with acceptable performance. We introduce IHOMP : an approach for solving misspecified problems. IHOMP iteratively learns a set of context specialized options and combines these options to solve an otherwise misspecified problem. Our main contribution is proving that IHOMP enjoys theoretical convergence guarantees. In addition, we extend IHOMP to exploit Option Interruption (OI) enabling it to decide where the learned options can be reused. Our experiments demonstrate that IHOMP can find near-optimal solutions to otherwise misspecified problems and that OI can further improve the solutions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

Adaptive Skills, Adaptive Partitions (ASAP)

We introduce the Adaptive Skills, Adaptive Partitions (ASAP) framework that (1) learns skills (i.e., temporally extended actions or options) as well as (2) where to apply them. We believe that both (1) and (2) are necessary for a truly general skill learning framework, which is a key building block needed to scale up to lifelong learning agents. The ASAP framework can also solve related new tasks simply by adapting where it applies its existing learned skills. We prove that ASAP converges to a local optimum under natural conditions. Finally, our experimental results, which include a RoboCup domain, demonstrate the ability of ASAP to learn where to reuse skills as well as solve multiple tasks with considerably less experience than solving each task from scratch.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

Strategic Formation of Heterogeneous Networks

We establish a network formation game for the Internet's Autonomous System (AS) interconnection topology. The game includes different types of players, accounting for the heterogeneity of ASs in the Internet. In this network formation game, the utility of a player depends on the network structure, e.g., the distances between nodes and the cost of links. We also consider the case where utility (or monetary) transfers are allowed between the players. We incorporate reliability considerations in the player's utility function, and analyze static properties of the game as well as its dynamic evolution. We provide dynamic analysis of topological quantities, and explain the prevalence of some "network motifs" in the Internet graph. We assess our predictions with real-world data.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2016

Bending the Curve: Improving the ROC Curve Through Error Redistribution

Classification performance is often not uniform over the data. Some areas in the input space are easier to classify than others. Features that hold information about the "difficulty" of the data may be non-discriminative and are therefore disregarded in the classification process. We propose a meta-learning approach where performance may be improved by post-processing. This improvement is done by establishing a dynamic threshold on the base-classifier results. Since the base-classifier is treated as a "black box" the method presented can be used on any state of the art classifier in order to try an improve its performance. We focus our attention on how to better control the true-positive/false-positive trade-off known as the ROC curve. We propose an algorithm for the derivation of optimal thresholds by redistributing the error depending on features that hold information about difficulty. We demonstrate the resulting benefit on both synthetic and real-life data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

A Reinforcement Learning System to Encourage Physical Activity in Diabetes Patients

Regular physical activity is known to be beneficial to people suffering from diabetes type 2. Nevertheless, most such people are sedentary. Smartphones create new possibilities for helping people to adhere to their physical activity goals, through continuous monitoring and communication, coupled with personalized feedback. We provided 27 sedentary diabetes type 2 patients with a smartphone-based pedometer and a personal plan for physical activity. Patients were sent SMS messages to encourage physical activity between once a day and once per week. Messages were personalized through a Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithm which optimized messages to improve each participant's compliance with the activity regimen. The RL algorithm was compared to a static policy for sending messages and to weekly reminders. Our results show that participants who received messages generated by the RL algorithm increased the amount of activity and pace of walking, while the control group patients did not. Patients assigned to the RL algorithm group experienced a superior reduction in blood glucose levels (HbA1c) compared to control policies, and longer participation caused greater reductions in blood glucose levels. The learning algorithm improved gradually in predicting which messages would lead participants to exercise. Our results suggest that a mobile phone application coupled with a learning algorithm can improve adherence to exercise in diabetic patients. As a learning algorithm is automated, and delivers personalized messages, it could be used in large populations of diabetic patients to improve health and glycemic control. Our results can be expanded to other areas where computer-led health coaching of humans may have a positive impact.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2016

Distributed Scenario-Based Optimization for Asset Management in a Hierarchical Decision Making Environment

Asset management attempts to keep the power system in working conditions. It requires much coordination between multiple entities and long term planning often months in advance. In this work we introduce a mid-term asset management formulation as a stochastic optimization problem, that includes three hierarchical layers of decision making, namely the mid-term, short-term and real-time. We devise a tractable scenario approximation technique for efficiently assessing the complex implications a maintenance schedule inflicts on a power system. This is done using efficient Monte-Carlo simulations that trade-off between accuracy and tractability. We then present our implementation of a distributed scenario-based optimization algorithm for solving our formulation, and use an updated PJM 5-bus system to show a solution that is cheaper than other maintenance heuristics that are likely to be considered by TSOs.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2016

Hierarchical Decision Making In Electricity Grid Management

The power grid is a complex and vital system that necessitates careful reliability management. Managing the grid is a difficult problem with multiple time scales of decision making and stochastic behavior due to renewable energy generations, variable demand and unplanned outages. Solving this problem in the face of uncertainty requires a new methodology with tractable algorithms. In this work, we introduce a new model for hierarchical decision making in complex systems. We apply reinforcement learning (RL) methods to learn a proxy, i.e., a level of abstraction, for real-time power grid reliability. We devise an algorithm that alternates between slow time-scale policy improvement, and fast time-scale value function approximation. We compare our results to prevailing heuristics, and show the strength of our method.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2015

Multi-user lax communications: a multi-armed bandit approach

Inspired by cognitive radio networks, we consider a setting where multiple users share several channels modeled as a multi-user multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem. The characteristics of each channel are unknown and are different for each user. Each user can choose between the channels, but her success depends on the particular channel chosen as well as on the selections of other users: if two users select the same channel their messages collide and none of them manages to send any data. Our setting is fully distributed, so there is no central control. As in many communication systems, the users cannot set up a direct communication protocol, so information exchange must be limited to a minimum. We develop an algorithm for learning a stable configuration for the multi-user MAB problem. We further offer both convergence guarantees and experiments inspired by real communication networks, including comparison to state-of-the-art algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2015

Generalized Emphatic Temporal Difference Learning: Bias-Variance Analysis

We consider the off-policy evaluation problem in Markov decision processes with function approximation. We propose a generalization of the recently introduced \emph{emphatic temporal differences} (ETD) algorithm \citep{SuttonMW15}, which encompasses the original ETD($λ$), as well as several other off-policy evaluation algorithms as special cases. We call this framework \ETD, where our introduced parameter $β$ controls the decay rate of an importance-sampling term. We study conditions under which the projected fixed-point equation underlying \ETD\ involves a contraction operator, allowing us to present the first asymptotic error bounds (bias) for \ETD. Our results show that the original ETD algorithm always involves a contraction operator, and its bias is bounded. Moreover, by controlling $β$, our proposed generalization allows trading-off bias for variance reduction, thereby achieving a lower total error.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2015

Learn on Source, Refine on Target:A Model Transfer Learning Framework with Random Forests

We propose novel model transfer-learning methods that refine a decision forest model M learned within a "source" domain using a training set sampled from a "target" domain, assumed to be a variation of the source. We present two random forest transfer algorithms. The first algorithm searches greedily for locally optimal modifications of each tree structure by trying to locally expand or reduce the tree around individual nodes. The second algorithm does not modify structure, but only the parameter (thresholds) associated with decision nodes. We also propose to combine both methods by considering an ensemble that contains the union of the two forests. The proposed methods exhibit impressive experimental results over a range of problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2015

Emphatic TD Bellman Operator is a Contraction

Recently, \citet{SuttonMW15} introduced the emphatic temporal differences (ETD) algorithm for off-policy evaluation in Markov decision processes. In this short note, we show that the projected fixed-point equation that underlies ETD involves a contraction operator, with a $\sqrtγ$-contraction modulus (where $γ$ is the discount factor). This allows us to provide error bounds on the approximation error of ETD. To our knowledge, these are the first error bounds for an off-policy evaluation algorithm under general target and behavior policies.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2015

Reinforcement Learning for the Unit Commitment Problem

In this work we solve the day-ahead unit commitment (UC) problem, by formulating it as a Markov decision process (MDP) and finding a low-cost policy for generation scheduling. We present two reinforcement learning algorithms, and devise a third one. We compare our results to previous work that uses simulated annealing (SA), and show a 27% improvement in operation costs, with running time of 2.5 minutes (compared to 2.5 hours of existing state-of-the-art).

cs.AI↗

arXiv2015

Overlapping Communities Detection via Measure Space Embedding

We present a new algorithm for community detection. The algorithm uses random walks to embed the graph in a space of measures, after which a modification of $k$-means in that space is applied. The algorithm is therefore fast and easily parallelizable. We evaluate the algorithm on standard random graph benchmarks, including some overlapping community benchmarks, and find its performance to be better or at least as good as previously known algorithms. We also prove a linear time (in number of edges) guarantee for the algorithm on a $p,q$-stochastic block model with $p \geq c\cdot N^{-\frac{1}{2} + ε}$ and $p-q \geq c' \sqrt{p N^{-\frac{1}{2} + ε} \log N}$.

cs.LG↗