arXiv subjects

Shuyang Bai

Publications and source records attributed to Shuyang Bai.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Heavy Tailed Homogeneous Structural Causal Models

We consider causal discovery in structural causal models driven by heavy-tailed noise, where extremes carry important information about causal direction. We introduce the Heavy-Tailed Homogeneous Structural Causal Model (HT-HSCM), a unified framework that generalizes heavy-tailed linear and max-linear models. We demonstrate that causal tail coefficients identify the complete ancestral partial order of the underlying directed acyclic graph. We also formulate a recursive algorithm for recovering quantities associated with the model called ancestral impulse-responses from the causal tail coefficients. Our results provide a general and theoretically justified framework for causal discovery in heavy-tailed systems.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Conditional Independence under Infinite Measures and Poisson Point Processes

We study conditional independence under infinite measures on punctured product spaces, a notion recently introduced for graphical modeling in multivariate extremes and L\'evy processes. In contrast to classical probabilistic conditional independence, this concept is formulated through normalized restrictions of an infinite measure that reflects the non-product structure of the punctured space. We show that this non-standard notion admits a natural probabilistic characterization: it is equivalent to classical conditional independence between coordinate projections of a Poisson point process defined on the punctured space with the given infinite measure as its mean measure. In addition, we provide a functional characterization of the conditional independence concept at the level of the enumerated points of the Poisson point process. We further extend the framework from punctured Euclidean product spaces to a more general abstract setting, thereby broadening its scope of potential applications.

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arXiv2025

On extremes for Gaussian subordination

This paper investigates extreme value theory for processes obtained by applying transformations to stationary Gaussian processes, also called subordinated Gaussian processes. The main contributions are as follows. First, we refine the method of \cite{sly2008nonstandard} to allow the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process to decay more slowly than any polynomial rate, nearly matching Berman's condition. Second, we extend the theory to a multivariate setting, where both the subordinated process and the underlying Gaussian process may be vector-valued, and the transformation is finite-dimensional. In particular, we establish the weak convergence of a point process constructed from the subordinated Gaussian process, from which a multivariate extreme value limit theorem follows. A key observation that facilitates our analysis, and may be of independent interest, is the following: any bivariate random vector derived from transformations of two jointly Gaussian vectors with a non-unity canonical correlation always remains extremally independent. This observation also motivates us to introduce and discuss a notion we call $m$-extremal-dependence, which extends the classical concept of $m$-dependence. Moreover, we relax the restriction to finite-dimensional transforms, extending the results to infinite-dimensional settings via an approximation argument. As an illustration, we establish a limit theorem for a multivariate moving maxima process driven by regularly varying innovations that arise from subordinated Gaussian processes with potentially long memory.

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arXiv2025

Structural Causal Models for Extremes: an Approach Based on Exponent Measures

We introduce a new formulation of structural causal models for extremes, called the extremal structural causal model (eSCM). Unlike conventional structural causal models, where randomness is governed by a probability distribution, eSCMs use an exponent measure, an infinite-mass law that naturally arises in the analysis of multivariate extremes. Central to this framework are activation variables, which abstract the single-big-jump principle, along with additional randomization that enriches the class of eSCM laws. This formulation encompasses all possible laws of directed graphical models under the recently introduced notion of extremal conditional independence. We also identify an inherent asymmetry in eSCMs under natural assumptions, enabling the identifiability of causal directions, a central challenge in causal inference. Finally, we propose a method that utilizes this causal asymmetry and demonstrate its effectiveness in both simulated and real datasets.

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arXiv2025

Multiple Extremal Integrals

We introduce the notion of multiple extremal integrals as an extension of single extremal integrals, which have played important roles in extreme value theory. The multiple extremal integrals are formulated in terms of a product-form random sup measure derived from the $\alpha$-Fr\'{e}chet random sup measure. We establish a LePage-type representation similar to that used for multiple sum-stable integrals, which have been extensively studied in the literature. This approach allows us to investigate the integrability, tail behavior, and independence properties of multiple extremal integrals. Additionally, we discuss an extension of a recently proposed stationary model that exhibits an unusual extremal clustering phenomenon, now constructed using multiple extremal integrals.

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arXiv2025

Graph Canonical Correlation Analysis

Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is a widely used technique for estimating associations between two sets of multi-dimensional variables. Recent advancements in CCA methods have expanded their application to decipher the interactions of multiomics datasets, imaging-omics datasets, and more. However, conventional CCA methods are limited in their ability to incorporate structured patterns in the cross-correlation matrix, potentially leading to suboptimal estimations. To address this limitation, we propose the graph Canonical Correlation Analysis (gCCA) approach, which calculates canonical correlations based on the graph structure of the cross-correlation matrix between the two sets of variables. We develop computationally efficient algorithms for gCCA, and provide theoretical results for finite sample analysis of best subset selection and canonical correlation estimation by introducing concentration inequalities and stopping time rule based on martingale theories. Extensive simulations demonstrate that gCCA outperforms competing CCA methods. Additionally, we apply gCCA to a multiomics dataset of DNA methylation and RNA-seq transcriptomics, identifying both positively and negatively regulated gene expression pathways by DNA methylation pathways.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

A remarkable example on clustering of extremes for regularly-varying stochastic processes

The stable-regenerative multiple-stable model has been shown recently to have distinct candidate extremal index and extremal index. To understand further this rare phenomenon, two more results are established here for the double-stable model. The first is the convergence of point processes for the clusters of extremes, enhancing the previous result on the weak convergence of random sup-measures. Most interestingly, the second result reveals a new phase transition at the mesoscopic level when computing the asymptotic exceedance probability over a block, $\mathbb P(\max_{k=1,\dots,d_n} X_k>b_n)$, as $n\to\infty$. Here, the mesoscopic level is referred to the fact that the block size $d_n$ is allowed to grow at the rate $n^\rho$ with $\rho\in[0,1]$, while the threshold $b_n$ is such that $\mathbb P(X_1>b_n)\sim 1/n$. The recently discovered discrepancy between the candidate extremal index and the extremal index is shown to be just a reflection of this phase transition that is prohibited by the anticlustering condition.

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arXiv2024

Empirical limit theorems for Wiener chaos

We consider empirical measures in a triangular array setup with underlying distributions varying as sample size grows. We study asymptotic properties of multiple integrals with respect to normalized empirical measures. Limit theorems involving series of multiple Wiener-Itô integrals are established.

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arXiv2024

On estimation and order selection for multivariate extremes via clustering

We investigate the estimation of multivariate extreme models with a discrete spectral measure using spherical clustering techniques. The primary contribution involves devising a method for selecting the order, that is, the number of clusters. The method consistently identifies the true order, i.e., the number of spectral atoms, and enjoys intuitive implementation in practice. Specifically, we introduce an extra penalty term to the well-known simplified average silhouette width, which penalizes small cluster sizes and small dissimilarities between cluster centers. Consequently, we provide a consistent method for determining the order of a max-linear factor model, where a typical information-based approach is not viable. Our second contribution is a large-deviation-type analysis for estimating the discrete spectral measure through clustering methods, which serves as an assessment of the convergence quality of clustering-based estimation for multivariate extremes. Additionally, as a third contribution, we discuss how estimating the discrete measure can lead to parameter estimations of heavy-tailed factor models. We also present simulations and real-data studies that demonstrate order selection and factor model estimation.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Joint sum-max limit for a class of long-range dependent processes with heavy tails

We consider a class of stationary processes exhibiting both long-range dependence and heavy tails. Separate limit theorems for sums and for extremes have been established recently in literature with novel objects appearing in the limits. In this article, we establish the joint sum-max limit theorems for this class of processes. In the finite-variance case, the limit consists of two independent components: a fractional Brownian motion arising from the sum, and a long-range dependent random sup measure arising from the maximum. In the infinite-variance case, we obtain in the limit two dependent components: a stable process and a random sup measure whose dependence structure is described through the local time and range of a stable subordinator. For establishing the limit theorem in the latter case, we also develop a joint convergence result for the local time and range of subordinators, which may be of independent interest.

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arXiv2023

Tail Adversarial Stability for Regularly Varying Linear Processes and their Extensions

The notion of tail adversarial stability has been proven useful in obtaining limit theorems for tail dependent time series. Its implication and advantage over the classical strong mixing framework has been examined for max-linear processes, but not yet studied for additive linear processes. In this article, we fill this gap by verifying the tail adversarial stability condition for regularly varying additive linear processes. We in addition consider extensions of the result to a stochastic volatility generalization and to a max-linear counterpart. We also address the invariance of tail adversarial stability under monotone transforms. Some implications for limit theorems in statistical context are also discussed.

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arXiv2023

Optimal Sampling Designs for Multi-dimensional Streaming Time Series with Application to Power Grid Sensor Data

The Internet of Things (IoT) system generates massive high-speed temporally correlated streaming data and is often connected with online inference tasks under computational or energy constraints. Online analysis of these streaming time series data often faces a trade-off between statistical efficiency and computational cost. One important approach to balance this trade-off is sampling, where only a small portion of the sample is selected for the model fitting and update. Motivated by the demands of dynamic relationship analysis of IoT system, we study the data-dependent sample selection and online inference problem for a multi-dimensional streaming time series, aiming to provide low-cost real-time analysis of high-speed power grid electricity consumption data. Inspired by D-optimality criterion in design of experiments, we propose a class of online data reduction methods that achieve an optimal sampling criterion and improve the computational efficiency of the online analysis. We show that the optimal solution amounts to a strategy that is a mixture of Bernoulli sampling and leverage score sampling. The leverage score sampling involves auxiliary estimations that have a computational advantage over recursive least squares updates. Theoretical properties of the auxiliary estimations involved are also discussed. When applied to European power grid consumption data, the proposed leverage score based sampling methods outperform the benchmark sampling method in online estimation and prediction. The general applicability of the sampling-assisted online estimation method is assessed via simulation studies.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Phase transition for extremes of a family of stationary multiple-stable processes

We investigate a family of multiple-stable processes that may exhibit either long-range or short-range dependence, depending on the parameters. There are two parameters for the processes, the memory parameter $β\in(0,1)$ and the multiplicity parameter $p\in\mathbb N$. We investigate the macroscopic limit of extremes of the process, in terms of convergence of random sup-measures, for the full range of parameters. Our results show that (i) the extremes of the process exhibit long-range dependence when $β_p := pβ-p+1\in(0,1)$, with a new family of random sup-measures arising in the limit, (ii) the extremes are of short-range dependence when $β_p<0$, with independently scattered random sup-measures arising in the limit, and (iii) there is a delicate phase transition at the critical regime $β_p = 0$.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Tail processes for stable-regenerative multiple-stable model

We investigate a family of discrete-time stationary processes defined by multiple stable integrals and renewal processes with infinite means. The model may exhibit behaviors of short-range or long-range dependence, respectively, depending on the parameters. The main contribution is to establish a phase transition in terms of the tail processes that characterize local clustering of extremes. Moreover, in the short-range dependence regime, the model provides an example where the extremal index is different from the candidate extremal index.

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arXiv2021

Limit Theorems for Conservative Flows on Multiple Stochastic Integrals

We consider a stationary sequence $(X_n)$ constructed by a multiple stochastic integral and an infinite-measure conservative dynamical system. The random measure defining the multiple integral is non-Gaussian, infinitely divisible and has a finite variance. Some additional assumptions on the dynamical system give rise to a parameter $β\in(0,1)$ quantifying the conservativity of the system. This parameter $β$ together with the order of the integral determines the decay rate of the covariance of $(X_n)$. The goal of the paper is to establish limit theorems for the partial sum process of $(X_n)$. We obtain a central limit theorem with Brownian motion as limit when the covariance decays fast enough, as well as a non-central limit theorem with fractional Brownian motion or Rosenblatt process as limit when the covariance decays slow enough.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Representations of Hermite processes using local time of intersecting stationary stable regenerative sets

Hermite processes are a class of self-similar processes with stationary increments. They often arise in limit theorems under long-range dependence. We derive new representations of Hermite processes with multiple Wiener-Itô integrals, whose integrands involve the local time of intersecting stationary stable regenerative sets. The proof relies on an approximation of regenerative sets and local times based on a scheme of random interval covering.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

A functional non-central limit theorem for multiple-stable processes with long-range dependence

A functional limit theorem is established for the partial-sum process of a class of stationary sequences which exhibit both heavy tails and long-range dependence. The stationary sequence is constructed using multiple stochastic integrals with heavy-tailed marginal distribution. Furthermore, the multiple stochastic integrals are built upon a large family of dynamical systems that are ergodic and conservative, leading to the long-range dependence phenomenon of the model. The limits constitute a new class of self-similar processes with stationary increments. They are represented by multiple stable integrals, where the integrands involve the local times of intersections of independent stationary stable regenerative sets. The joint moments of the local times are computed, which play the key in the proof and are also of independent interest.

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arXiv2018

Sensivity of the Hermite rank

The Hermite rank appears in limit theorems involving long memory. We show that an Hermite rank higher than one is unstable when the data is slightly perturbed by transformations such as shift and scaling. We carry out a "near higher order rank analysis" to illustrate how the limit theorems are affected by a shift perturbation that is decreasing in size. As a byproduct of our analysis, we also prove the coincidence of the Hermite rank and the power rank in the Gaussian context. The paper is a technical companion of \citet{bai:taqqu:2017:instability} which discusses the instability of the Hermite rank in the statistical context. (Older title "Some properties of the Hermite rank">)

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