arXiv subjects

Simo Särkkä

Publications and source records attributed to Simo Särkkä.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2018

Gaussian Process Latent Force Models for Learning and Stochastic Control of Physical Systems

This article is concerned with learning and stochastic control in physical systems which contain unknown input signals. These unknown signals are modeled as Gaussian processes (GP) with certain parametrized covariance structures. The resulting latent force models (LFMs) can be seen as hybrid models that contain a first-principles physical model part and a non-parametric GP model part. We briefly review the statistical inference and learning methods for this kind of models, introduce stochastic control methodology for the models, and provide new theoretical observability and controllability results for them.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2018

Fast Motion Deblurring for Feature Detection and Matching Using Inertial Measurements

Many computer vision and image processing applications rely on local features. It is well-known that motion blur decreases the performance of traditional feature detectors and descriptors. We propose an inertial-based deblurring method for improving the robustness of existing feature detectors and descriptors against the motion blur. Unlike most deblurring algorithms, the method can handle spatially-variant blur and rolling shutter distortion. Furthermore, it is capable of running in real-time contrary to state-of-the-art algorithms. The limitations of inertial-based blur estimation are taken into account by validating the blur estimates using image data. The evaluation shows that when the method is used with traditional feature detector and descriptor, it increases the number of detected keypoints, provides higher repeatability and improves the localization accuracy. We also demonstrate that such features will lead to more accurate and complete reconstructions when used in the application of 3D visual reconstruction.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2018

A Bayes-Sard Cubature Method

This paper focusses on the formulation of numerical integration as an inferential task. To date, research effort has largely focussed on the development of Bayesian cubature, whose distributional output provides uncertainty quantification for the integral. However, the point estimators associated to Bayesian cubature can be inaccurate and acutely sensitive to the prior when the domain is high-dimensional. To address these drawbacks we introduce Bayes-Sard cubature, a probabilistic framework that combines the flexibility of Bayesian cubature with the robustness of classical cubatures which are well-established. This is achieved by considering a Gaussian process model for the integrand whose mean is a parametric regression model, with an improper flat prior on each regression coefficient. The features in the regression model consist of test functions which are guaranteed to be exactly integrated, with remaining degrees of freedom afforded to the non-parametric part. The asymptotic convergence of the Bayes-Sard cubature method is established and the theoretical results are numerically verified. In particular, we report two orders of magnitude reduction in error compared to Bayesian cubature in the context of a high-dimensional financial integral.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

Modeling and interpolation of the ambient magnetic field by Gaussian processes

Anomalies in the ambient magnetic field can be used as features in indoor positioning and navigation. By using Maxwell's equations, we derive and present a Bayesian non-parametric probabilistic modeling approach for interpolation and extrapolation of the magnetic field. We model the magnetic field components jointly by imposing a Gaussian process (GP) prior on the latent scalar potential of the magnetic field. By rewriting the GP model in terms of a Hilbert space representation, we circumvent the computational pitfalls associated with GP modeling and provide a computationally efficient and physically justified modeling tool for the ambient magnetic field. The model allows for sequential updating of the estimate and time-dependent changes in the magnetic field. The model is shown to work well in practice in different applications: we demonstrate mapping of the magnetic field both with an inexpensive Raspberry Pi powered robot and on foot using a standard smartphone.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2018

Fully symmetric kernel quadrature

Kernel quadratures and other kernel-based approximation methods typically suffer from prohibitive cubic time and quadratic space complexity in the number of function evaluations. The problem arises because a system of linear equations needs to be solved. In this article we show that the weights of a kernel quadrature rule can be computed efficiently and exactly for up to tens of millions of nodes if the kernel, integration domain, and measure are fully symmetric and the node set is a union of fully symmetric sets. This is based on the observations that in such a setting there are only as many distinct weights as there are fully symmetric sets and that these weights can be solved from a linear system of equations constructed out of row sums of certain submatrices of the full kernel matrix. We present several numerical examples that show feasibility, both for a large number of nodes and in high dimensions, of the developed fully symmetric kernel quadrature rules. Most prominent of the fully symmetric kernel quadrature rules we propose are those that use sparse grids.

math.NA↗

arXiv2017

RSS Models for Respiration Rate Monitoring

Received signal strength based respiration rate monitoring is emerging as an alternative non-contact technology. These systems make use of the radio measurements of short-range commodity wireless devices, which vary due to the inhalation and exhalation motion of a person. The success of respiration rate estimation using such measurements depends on the signal-to-noise ratio, which alters with properties of the person and with the measurement system. To date, no model has been presented that allows evaluation of different deployments or system configurations for successful breathing rate estimation. In this paper, a received signal strength model for respiration rate monitoring is introduced. It is shown that measurements in linear and logarithmic scale have the same functional form, and the same estimation techniques can be used in both cases. The implications of the model are validated under varying signal-to-noise ratio conditions using the performances of three estimators: batch frequency estimator, recursive Bayesian estimator, and model-based estimator. The results are in coherence with the findings, and they imply that different estimators are advantageous in different signal-to-noise ratio regimes.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2017

Parallelizable sparse inverse formulation Gaussian processes (SpInGP)

We propose a parallelizable sparse inverse formulation Gaussian process (SpInGP) for temporal models. It uses a sparse precision GP formulation and sparse matrix routines to speed up the computations. Due to the state-space formulation used in the algorithm, the time complexity of the basic SpInGP is linear, and because all the computations are parallelizable, the parallel form of the algorithm is sublinear in the number of data points. We provide example algorithms to implement the sparse matrix routines and experimentally test the method using both simulated and real data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Inertial-Based Scale Estimation for Structure from Motion on Mobile Devices

Structure from motion algorithms have an inherent limitation that the reconstruction can only be determined up to the unknown scale factor. Modern mobile devices are equipped with an inertial measurement unit (IMU), which can be used for estimating the scale of the reconstruction. We propose a method that recovers the metric scale given inertial measurements and camera poses. In the process, we also perform a temporal and spatial alignment of the camera and the IMU. Therefore, our solution can be easily combined with any existing visual reconstruction software. The method can cope with noisy camera pose estimates, typically caused by motion blur or rolling shutter artifacts, via utilizing a Rauch-Tung-Striebel (RTS) smoother. Furthermore, the scale estimation is performed in the frequency domain, which provides more robustness to inaccurate sensor time stamps and noisy IMU samples than the previously used time domain representation. In contrast to previous methods, our approach has no parameters that need to be tuned for achieving a good performance. In the experiments, we show that the algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art in both accuracy and convergence speed of the scale estimate. The accuracy of the scale is around $1\%$ from the ground truth depending on the recording. We also demonstrate that our method can improve the scale accuracy of the Project Tango's build-in motion tracking.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2017

A probabilistic model for the numerical solution of initial value problems

Like many numerical methods, solvers for initial value problems (IVPs) on ordinary differential equations estimate an analytically intractable quantity, using the results of tractable computations as inputs. This structure is closely connected to the notion of inference on latent variables in statistics. We describe a class of algorithms that formulate the solution to an IVP as inference on a latent path that is a draw from a Gaussian process probability measure (or equivalently, the solution of a linear stochastic differential equation). We then show that certain members of this class are connected precisely to generalized linear methods for ODEs, a number of Runge--Kutta methods, and Nordsieck methods. This probabilistic formulation of classic methods is valuable in two ways: analytically, it highlights implicit prior assumptions favoring certain approximate solutions to the IVP over others, and gives a precise meaning to the old observation that these methods act like filters. Practically, it endows the classic solvers with `docking points' for notions of uncertainty and prior information about the initial value, the value of the ODE itself, and the solution of the problem.

math.NA↗

arXiv2017

Student-t Process Quadratures for Filtering of Non-Linear Systems with Heavy-Tailed Noise

The aim of this article is to design a moment transformation for Student- t distributed random variables, which is able to account for the error in the numerically computed mean. We employ Student-t process quadrature, an instance of Bayesian quadrature, which allows us to treat the integral itself as a random variable whose variance provides information about the incurred integration error. Advantage of the Student- t process quadrature over the traditional Gaussian process quadrature, is that the integral variance depends also on the function values, allowing for a more robust modelling of the integration error. The moment transform is applied in nonlinear sigma-point filtering and evaluated on two numerical examples, where it is shown to outperform the state-of-the-art moment transforms.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2016

Regularizing Solutions to the MEG Inverse Problem Using Space-Time Separable Covariance Functions

In magnetoencephalography (MEG) the conventional approach to source reconstruction is to solve the underdetermined inverse problem independently over time and space. Here we present how the conventional approach can be extended by regularizing the solution in space and time by a Gaussian process (Gaussian random field) model. Assuming a separable covariance function in space and time, the computational complexity of the proposed model becomes (without any further assumptions or restrictions) $\mathcal{O}(t^3 + n^3 + m^2n)$, where $t$ is the number of time steps, $m$ is the number of sources, and $n$ is the number of sensors. We apply the method to both simulated and empirical data, and demonstrate the efficiency and generality of our Bayesian source reconstruction approach which subsumes various classical approaches in the literature.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2016

Computationally Efficient Bayesian Learning of Gaussian Process State Space Models

Gaussian processes allow for flexible specification of prior assumptions of unknown dynamics in state space models. We present a procedure for efficient Bayesian learning in Gaussian process state space models, where the representation is formed by projecting the problem onto a set of approximate eigenfunctions derived from the prior covariance structure. Learning under this family of models can be conducted using a carefully crafted particle MCMC algorithm. This scheme is computationally efficient and yet allows for a fully Bayesian treatment of the problem. Compared to conventional system identification tools or existing learning methods, we show competitive performance and reliable quantification of uncertainties in the model.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2015

Sigma-Point Filtering and Smoothing Based Parameter Estimation in Nonlinear Dynamic Systems

We consider approximate maximum likelihood parameter estimation in nonlinear state-space models. We discuss both direct optimization of the likelihood and expectation--maximization (EM). For EM, we also give closed-form expressions for the maximization step in a class of models that are linear in parameters and have additive noise. To obtain approximations to the filtering and smoothing distributions needed in the likelihood-maximization methods, we focus on using Gaussian filtering and smoothing algorithms that employ sigma-points to approximate the required integrals. We discuss different sigma-point schemes based on the third, fifth, seventh, and ninth order unscented transforms and the Gauss--Hermite quadrature rule. We compare the performance of the methods in two simulated experiments: a univariate nonlinear growth model as well as tracking of a maneuvering target. In the experiments, we also compare against approximate likelihood estimates obtained by particle filtering and extended Kalman filtering based methods. The experiments suggest that the higher-order unscented transforms may in some cases provide more accurate estimates

stat.ME↗

arXiv2015

Nonlinear State Space Model Identification Using a Regularized Basis Function Expansion

This paper is concerned with black-box identification of nonlinear state space models. By using a basis function expansion within the state space model, we obtain a flexible structure. The model is identified using an expectation maximization approach, where the states and the parameters are updated iteratively in such a way that a maximum likelihood estimate is obtained. We use recent particle methods with sound theoretical properties to infer the states, whereas the model parameters can be updated using closed-form expressions by exploiting the fact that our model is linear in the parameters. Not to over-fit the flexible model to the data, we also propose a regularization scheme without increasing the computational burden. Importantly, this opens up for systematic use of regularization in nonlinear state space models. We conclude by evaluating our proposed approach on one simulation example and two real-data problems.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2015

A Bayesian Particle Filtering Method For Brain Source Localisation

In this paper, we explore the multiple source localisation problem in the cerebral cortex using magnetoencephalography (MEG) data. We model neural currents as point-wise dipolar sources which dynamically evolve over time, then model dipole dynamics using a probabilistic state space model in which dipole locations are strictly constrained to lie within the cortex. Based on the proposed models, we develop a Bayesian particle filtering algorithm for localisation of both known and unknown numbers of dipoles. The algorithm consists of a region of interest (ROI) estimation step for initial dipole number estimation, a Gibbs multiple particle filter (GMPF) step for individual dipole state estimation, and a selection criterion step for selecting the final estimates. The estimated results from the ROI estimation are used to adaptively adjust particle filter's sample size to reduce the overall computational cost. The proposed models and the algorithm are tested in numerical experiments. Results are compared with existing particle filtering methods. The numerical results show that the proposed methods can achieve improved performance metrics in terms of dipole number estimation and dipole localisation.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2015

Probability Measures for Numerical Solutions of Differential Equations

In this paper, we present a formal quantification of epistemic uncertainty induced by numerical solutions of ordinary and partial differential equation models. Numerical solutions of differential equations contain inherent uncertainties due to the finite dimensional approximation of an unknown and implicitly defined function. When statistically analysing models based on differential equations describing physical, or other naturally occurring, phenomena, it is therefore important to explicitly account for the uncertainty introduced by the numerical method. This enables objective determination of its importance relative to other uncertainties, such as those caused by data contaminated with noise or model error induced by missing physical or inadequate descriptors. To this end we show that a wide variety of existing solvers can be randomised, inducing a probability measure over the solutions of such differential equations. These measures exhibit contraction to a Dirac measure around the true unknown solution, where the rates of convergence are consistent with the underlying deterministic numerical method. Ordinary differential equations and elliptic partial differential equations are used to illustrate the approach to quantifying uncertainty in both the statistical analysis of the forward and inverse problems.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2015

Rao-Blackwellized particle smoothers for conditionally linear Gaussian models

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, such as the particle filter, are by now one of the standard computational techniques for addressing the filtering problem in general state-space models. However, many applications require post-processing of data offline. In such scenarios the smoothing problem--in which all the available data is used to compute state estimates--is of central interest. We consider the smoothing problem for a class of conditionally linear Gaussian models. We present a forward-backward-type Rao-Blackwellized particle smoother (RBPS) that is able to exploit the tractable substructure present in these models. Akin to the well known Rao-Blackwellized particle filter, the proposed RBPS marginalizes out a conditionally tractable subset of state variables, effectively making use of SMC only for the "intractable part" of the model. Compared to existing RBPS, two key features of the proposed method are: (i) it does not require structural approximations of the model, and (ii) the aforementioned marginalization is done both in the forward direction and in the backward direction.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2015

On the relation between Gaussian process quadratures and sigma-point methods

This article is concerned with Gaussian process quadratures, which are numerical integration methods based on Gaussian process regression methods, and sigma-point methods, which are used in advanced non-linear Kalman filtering and smoothing algorithms. We show that many sigma-point methods can be interpreted as Gaussian quadrature based methods with suitably selected covariance functions. We show that this interpretation also extends to more general multivariate Gauss--Hermite integration methods and related spherical cubature rules. Additionally, we discuss different criteria for selecting the sigma-point locations: exactness for multivariate polynomials up to a given order, minimum average error, and quasi-random point sets. The performance of the different methods is tested in numerical experiments.

stat.ME↗