Computationally Efficient Bayesian Learning of Gaussian Process State Space Models

Andreas Svensson; Arno Solin; Simo Särkkä; Thomas B. Schön

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arXiv · 1506.02267

Computationally Efficient Bayesian Learning of Gaussian Process State Space Models

Andreas Svensson·Arno Solin·Simo Särkkä·Thomas B. Schön

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Abstract

Gaussian processes allow for flexible specification of prior assumptions of unknown dynamics in state space models. We present a procedure for efficient Bayesian learning in Gaussian process state space models, where the representation is formed by projecting the problem onto a set of approximate eigenfunctions derived from the prior covariance structure. Learning under this family of models can be conducted using a carefully crafted particle MCMC algorithm. This scheme is computationally efficient and yet allows for a fully Bayesian treatment of the problem. Compared to conventional system identification tools or existing learning methods, we show competitive performance and reliable quantification of uncertainties in the model.

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Andreas Svensson, Arno Solin, Simo Särkkä, Thomas B. Schön. 2015-06-07. Computationally Efficient Bayesian Learning of Gaussian Process State Space Models. https://arxiv.org/abs/1506.02267

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