arXiv subjects

Simon Birrer

Publications and source records attributed to Simon Birrer.

At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

The first simultaneous measurement of Hubble constant and post-Newtonian parameter from Time-Delay Strong Lensing

Strong gravitational lensing has been a powerful probe of cosmological models and gravity. To date, constraints in either domain have been obtained separately. We propose a new methodology through which the cosmological model, specifically the Hubble constant, and post-Newtonian parameter can be simultaneously constrained. Using the time-delay cosmography from strong lensing combined with the stellar kinematics of the deflector lens, we demonstrate the Hubble constant and post-Newtonian parameter are incorporated in two distance ratios which reflect the lensing mass and dynamical mass, respectively. Through the reanalysis of the four publicly released lenses distance posteriors from the H0LiCOW collaboration, the simultaneous constraints of Hubble constant and post-Newtonian parameter are obtained. Our results suggests no deviation from the General Relativity, $γ_{\texttt{PPN}}=0.87^{+0.19}_{-0.17}$ with a Hubble constant favors the local Universe value, $H_0=73.65^{+1.95}_{-2.26}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$. Finally, we forecast the robustness of gravity tests by using the time-delay strong lensing for constraints we expect in the next few years. We find that the joint constraint from 40 lenses are able to reach the order of $7.7\%$ for the post-Newtonian parameter and $1.4\%$ for Hubble constant.

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arXiv2020

Cosmic dissonance: new physics or systematics behind a short sound horizon?

Persistent tension between low-redshift observations and the Cosmic Microwave Background radiation (CMB), in terms of two fundamental distance scales set by the sound horizon $r_d$ and the Hubble constant $H_0$, suggests new physics beyond the Standard Model or residual systematics. We examine recently updated distance calibrations from Cepheids, gravitational lensing time-delay observations, and the Tip of the Red Giant Branch. Calibrating the Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) and Type Ia supernovae with combinations of the distance indicators, we obtain a joint and self-consistent measurement of $H_0$ and $r_d$ at low redshift, independent of cosmological models and CMB inference. In an attempt to alleviate the tension between late-time and CMB-based measurements, we consider four extensions of the standard $Λ$CDM model. The sound horizon from our different measurements is $r_d=(137\pm3^{stat.}\pm2^{syst.})$~Mpc. Depending on the adopted distance indicators, the $combined$ tension in $H_0$ and $r_d$ ranges between 2.3 and 5.1 $σ$. We find that modifications of $Λ$CDM that change the physics after recombination fail to solve the problem, for the reason that they only resolve the tension in $H_0$, while the tension in $r_d$ remains unchanged. Pre-recombination extensions (with early dark energy or the effective number of neutrinos $\rm{N}_{\rm{eff}}=3.24 \pm 0.16$) are allowed by the data, unless the calibration from Cepheids is included. Results from time-delay lenses are consistent with those from distance-ladder calibrations and point to a discrepancy between absolute distance scales measured from the CMB (assuming the standard cosmological model) and late-time observations. New proposals to resolve this tension should be examined with respect to reconciling not only the Hubble constant but also the sound horizon derived from the CMB and other cosmological probes.

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arXiv2019

H0LiCOW XII. Lens mass model of WFI2033-4723 and blind measurement of its time-delay distance and $H_0$

We present the lens mass model of the quadruply-imaged gravitationally lensed quasar WFI2033-4723, and perform a blind cosmographical analysis based on this system. Our analysis combines (1) time-delay measurements from 14 years of data obtained by the COSmological MOnitoring of GRAvItational Lenses (COSMOGRAIL) collaboration, (2) high-resolution $\textit{Hubble Space Telescope}$ imaging, (3) a measurement of the velocity dispersion of the lens galaxy based on ESO-MUSE data, and (4) multi-band, wide-field imaging and spectroscopy characterizing the lens environment. We account for all known sources of systematics, including the influence of nearby perturbers and complex line-of-sight structure, as well as the parametrization of the light and mass profiles of the lensing galaxy. After unblinding, we determine the effective time-delay distance to be $4784_{-248}^{+399}~\mathrm{Mpc}$, an average precision of $6.6\%$. This translates to a Hubble constant $H_{0} = 71.6_{-4.9}^{+3.8}~\mathrm{km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}$, assuming a flat $Λ$CDM cosmology with a uniform prior on $Ω_\mathrm{m}$ in the range [0.05, 0.5]. This work is part of the $H_0$ Lenses in COSMOGRAIL's Wellspring (H0LiCOW) collaboration, and the full time-delay cosmography results from a total of six strongly lensed systems are presented in a companion paper (H0LiCOW XIII).

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arXiv2019

The mass relations between supermassive black holes and their host galaxies at 1<z<2 with HST-WFC3

Correlations between the mass of a supermassive black hole and the properties of its host galaxy (e.g., total stellar mass (M*), luminosity (Lhost)) suggest an evolutionary connection. A powerful test of a co-evolution scenario is to measure the relations MBH-Lhost and MBH-M* at high redshift and compare with local estimates. For this purpose, we acquired HST imaging with WFC3 of 32 X-ray-selected broad-line AGN at 1.2<z<1.7 in deep survey fields. By applying state-of-the-art tools to decompose the HST images including available ACS data, we measured the host galaxy luminosity and stellar mass along with other properties through the 2D model fitting. The black hole mass was determined using the broad Halpha line, detected in the near-infrared with Subaru/FMOS, which potentially minimizes systematic effects using other indicators. We find that the observed ratio of MBH to total M* is 2.7 times larger at z~1.5 than in the local universe, while the scatter is equivalent between the two epochs. A non-evolving mass ratio is consistent with the data at the 2-3 sigma confidence level when accounting for selection effects and their uncertainties. The relationship between MBH-Lhost paints a similar picture. Therefore, our results cannot distinguish whether SMBHs and their total M* and Lhost proceed in lockstep or whether the growth of the former somewhat overshoots the latter, given the uncertainties. Based on a statistical estimate of the bulge-to-total mass fraction, the ratio MBH/M* is offset from the local value by a factor of ~7 which is significant even accounting for selection effects. Taken together, these observations are consistent with a scenario in which stellar mass is subsequently transferred from an angular momentum supported component of the galaxy to the pressure supported one through secular processes or minor mergers at a faster rate than mass accretion onto the SMBH.

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arXiv2019

Warm dark matter chills out: constraints on the halo mass function and the free-streaming length of dark matter with 8 quadruple-image strong gravitational lenses

The free-streaming length of dark matter depends on fundamental dark matter physics, and determines the abundance and concentration of dark matter halos on sub-galactic scales. Using the image positions and flux ratios from eight quadruply-imaged quasars, we constrain the free-streaming length of dark matter and the amplitude of the subhalo mass function (SHMF). We model both main deflector subhalos and halos along the line of sight, and account for warm dark matter (WDM) free-streaming effects on the mass function and mass-concentration relation. By calibrating the scaling of the SHMF with host halo mass and redshift using a suite of simulated halos, we infer a global normalization for the SHMF. We account for finite-size background sources, and marginalize over the mass profile of the main deflector. Parameterizing dark matter free-streaming through the half-mode mass $m_{\rm{hm}}$, we constrain the thermal relic particle mass $m_{\rm{DM}}$ corresponding to $m_{\rm{hm}}$. At $95 \%$ CI: $m_{\rm{hm}} < 10^{7.8} M_{\odot}$ ($m_{\rm{DM}} > 5.2 \ \rm{keV}$). We disfavor $m_{\rm{DM}} = 4.0 \rm{keV}$ and $ m_{\rm{DM}} = 3.0 \rm{keV}$ with likelihood ratios of 7:1 and 30:1, respectively, relative to the peak of the posterior distribution. Assuming cold dark matter, we constrain the projected mass in substructure between $10^6 - 10^{9} M_{\odot}$ near lensed images. At $68 \%$ CI, we infer $2.0 - 6.1 \times 10^{7} M_{\odot} \rm{kpc^{-2}}$, corresponding to mean projected mass fraction $\bar{f}_{\rm{sub}} = 0.035_{-0.017}^{+0.021}$. At $95 \%$ CI, we obtain a lower bound on the projected mass of $0.6 \times 10^{7} M_{\odot} \rm{kpc^{-2}}$, corresponding to $\bar{f}_{\rm{sub}} > 0.005$. These results agree with the predictions of cold dark matter.

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arXiv2019

H0LiCOW XIII. A 2.4% measurement of $H_{0}$ from lensed quasars: $5.3σ$ tension between early and late-Universe probes

We present a measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_{0}$) and other cosmological parameters from a joint analysis of six gravitationally lensed quasars with measured time delays. All lenses except the first are analyzed blindly with respect to the cosmological parameters. In a flat $Λ$CDM cosmology, we find $H_{0} = 73.3_{-1.8}^{+1.7}$, a 2.4% precision measurement, in agreement with local measurements of $H_{0}$ from type Ia supernovae calibrated by the distance ladder, but in $3.1σ$ tension with $Planck$ observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). This method is completely independent of both the supernovae and CMB analyses. A combination of time-delay cosmography and the distance ladder results is in $5.3σ$ tension with $Planck$ CMB determinations of $H_{0}$ in flat $Λ$CDM. We compute Bayes factors to verify that all lenses give statistically consistent results, showing that we are not underestimating our uncertainties and are able to control our systematics. We explore extensions to flat $Λ$CDM using constraints from time-delay cosmography alone, as well as combinations with other cosmological probes, including CMB observations from $Planck$, baryon acoustic oscillations, and type Ia supernovae. Time-delay cosmography improves the precision of the other probes, demonstrating the strong complementarity. Allowing for spatial curvature does not resolve the tension with $Planck$. Using the distance constraints from time-delay cosmography to anchor the type Ia supernova distance scale, we reduce the sensitivity of our $H_0$ inference to cosmological model assumptions. For six different cosmological models, our combined inference on $H_{0}$ ranges from $\sim73$-$78~\mathrm{km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}$, which is consistent with the local distance ladder constraints.

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arXiv2019

Algorithms and Statistical Models for Scientific Discovery in the Petabyte Era

The field of astronomy has arrived at a turning point in terms of size and complexity of both datasets and scientific collaboration. Commensurately, algorithms and statistical models have begun to adapt --- e.g., via the onset of artificial intelligence --- which itself presents new challenges and opportunities for growth. This white paper aims to offer guidance and ideas for how we can evolve our technical and collaborative frameworks to promote efficient algorithmic development and take advantage of opportunities for scientific discovery in the petabyte era. We discuss challenges for discovery in large and complex data sets; challenges and requirements for the next stage of development of statistical methodologies and algorithmic tool sets; how we might change our paradigms of collaboration and education; and the ethical implications of scientists' contributions to widely applicable algorithms and computational modeling. We start with six distinct recommendations that are supported by the commentary following them. This white paper is related to a larger corpus of effort that has taken place within and around the Petabytes to Science Workshops (https://petabytestoscience.github.io/).

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arXiv2019

Where do quasar hosts lie with respect to the size-mass relation of galaxies?

The evolution of the galaxy size - stellar mass (Mstellar) relation has been a puzzle for over a decade. High redshift galaxies are significantly more compact than galaxies observed today, at an equivalent mass, but how much of this apparent growth is driven by progenitor bias, minor mergers, secular processes, or feedback from AGN is unclear. To help disentangle the physical mechanisms at work by addressing the latter, we study the galaxy size - Mstellar relation of 32 carefully-selected broad-line AGN hosts at 1.2 < z < 1.7 (7.5 < log M_BH < 8.5; L_bol/L_Edd > 0.1). Using HST with multi-band photometry and state-of-the-art modeling techniques, we measure half-light radii while accounting for uncertainties from subtracting bright central point sources. We find AGN hosts to have sizes ranging from 1 to 6 kpc at Mstellar ~ 0.3 - 1 x 10^11 Msun. Thus, many hosts have intermediate sizes as compared to equal-mass star-forming and quiescent galaxies. While inconsistent with the idea that AGN feedback may induce an increase in galaxy sizes, this finding is consistent with hypotheses in which AGNs preferentially occur in systems with prior concentrated gas reservoirs, or are involved in secular compaction processes perhaps responsible for simultaneously building bulges and shutting down star formation. If driven by minor mergers, which do not grow central black holes as fast as they do bulge-like stellar structures, such a process would explain both the galaxy size - mass relation observed here and the evolution in the black hole, bulge mass relation described in a companion paper.

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arXiv2019

Constraints on the mass-concentration relation of cold dark matter halos with 11 strong gravitational lenses

The mass-concentration relation of dark matter halos reflects the assembly history of objects in hierarchical structure formation scenarios, and depends on fundamental quantities in cosmology such as the slope of the primordial matter power-spectrum. This relation is unconstrained by observations on sub-galactic scales. We derive the first measurement of the mass-concentration relation using the image positions and flux ratios from eleven quadruple-image strong gravitational lenses (quads) in the mass range $10^{6} - 10^{10} M_{\odot}$, assuming cold dark matter. Our analysis framework includes both subhalos and line of sight halos, marginalizes over nuisance parameters describing the lens macromodel, accounts for finite source effects on lensing observables, and simultaneously constrains the normalization and logarithmic slope of the mass-concentration relation, and the normalization of the subhalo mass function. At $z=0$, we constrain the concentration of $10^{8} M_{\odot}$ halos $c=12_{-5}^{+6}$ at $68 \%$ CI, and $c=12_{-9}^{+15}$ at $95 \%$ CI. For a $10^{7} M_{\odot}$ halo, we obtain $68 \%$ ($95 \%$) constraints $c=15_{-8}^{+9}$ ($c=15_{-11}^{+18}$), while for $10^{9} M_{\odot}$ halos $c=10_{-4}^{+7}$ ($c=10_{-7}^{+14}$). These results are consistent with the theoretical predictions from mass-concentration relations in the literature, and establish strong lensing by galaxies as a powerful probe of halo concentrations on sub-galactic scales across cosmological distance.

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arXiv2019

Astrometric requirements for strong lensing time-delay cosmography

The time delay between the arrival of photons of multiple images of time variable sources can be used to constrain absolute distances in the Universe (Refsdal 1964), and in turn obtain a direct estimate of the Hubble constant and other cosmological parameters. To convert the time delay into distances, it is well known that the gravitational potential of the main deflector and the contribution of the matter along the line-of-sight need to be known to a sufficient level of precision. In this paper, we discuss a new astrometric requirement that is becoming important as time-delay cosmography improves in precision and accuracy with larger samples, and better data and modelling techniques. We derive an analytic expression for the propagation of astrometric uncertainties on the multiple image positions into the inference of the Hubble constant and derive requirements depending on image separation and relative time delay. We note that this requirement applies equally to the image position measurements and to the accuracy of the model in reproducing them. To illustrate the requirement, we discuss some example lensing configurations and highlight that, especially for time delays of order 10 days or shorter, the relative astrometric requirement is of order milli-arcseconds, setting a tight requirement on both measurements and models. With current optical infrared technology, astrometric uncertainties may be the dominant limitation for strong lensing cosmography in the small image-separation regime when high-precision time-delays become accessible.

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arXiv2019

Probing dark matter structure down to $10^7$ solar masses: flux ratio statistics in gravitational lenses with line of sight halos

Strong lensing provides a powerful means of investigating the nature of dark matter as it probes dark matter structure on sub-galactic scales. We present an extension of a forward modeling framework that uses flux ratios from quadruply imaged quasars (quads) to measure the shape and amplitude of the halo mass function, including line of sight (LOS) halos and main deflector subhalos. We apply this machinery to 50 mock lenses --- roughly the number of known quads --- with warm dark matter (WDM) mass functions exhibiting free-streaming cutoffs parameterized by the half-mode mass $m_{\rm{hm}}$. Assuming cold dark matter (CDM), we forecast bounds on $m_{\rm{hm}}$ and the corresponding thermal relic particle masses over a range of tidal destruction severity, assuming a particular WDM mass function and mass-concentration relation. With significant tidal destruction, at $2 σ$ we constrain $m_{\rm{hm}}<10^{7.9} \left(10^{8.4}\right) M_{\odot}$, or a 4.4 (3.1) keV thermal relic, with image flux uncertainties from measurements and lens modeling of $2\% \left(6\%\right)$. With less severe tidal destruction we constrain $m_{\rm{hm}}<10^{7} \left(10^{7.4}\right) M_{\odot}$, or an 8.2 (6.2) keV thermal relic. If dark matter is warm, with $m_{\rm{hm}} = 10^{7.7} M_{\odot}$ (5.1 keV), we would favor WDM with $m_{\rm{hm}} > 10^{7.7} M_{\odot}$ over CDM with relative likelihoods of 22:1 and 8:1 with flux uncertainties of $2\%$ and $6\%$, respectively. These bounds improve over those obtained by modeling only main deflector subhalos because LOS objects produce additional flux perturbations, especially for high redshift systems. These results indicate that $\sim 50$ quads can conclusively differentiate between warm and cold dark matter.

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arXiv2019

A SHARP view of H0LiCOW: $H_{0}$ from three time-delay gravitational lens systems with adaptive optics imaging

We present the measurement of the Hubble Constant, $H_0$, with three strong gravitational lens systems. We describe a blind analysis of both PG1115+080 and HE0435-1223 as well as an extension of our previous analysis of RXJ1131-1231. For each lens, we combine new adaptive optics (AO) imaging from the Keck Telescope, obtained as part of the SHARP AO effort, with Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging, velocity dispersion measurements, and a description of the line-of-sight mass distribution to build an accurate and precise lens mass model. This mass model is then combined with the COSMOGRAIL measured time delays in these systems to determine $H_{0}$. We do both an AO-only and an AO+HST analysis of the systems and find that AO and HST results are consistent. After unblinding, the AO-only analysis gives $H_{0}=82.8^{+9.4}_{-8.3}~\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}$ for PG1115+080, $H_{0}=70.1^{+5.3}_{-4.5}~\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}$ for HE0435-1223, and $H_{0}=77.0^{+4.0}_{-4.6}~\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}$ for RXJ1131-1231. The joint AO-only result for the three lenses is $H_{0}=75.6^{+3.2}_{-3.3}~\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}$. The joint result of the AO+HST analysis for the three lenses is $H_{0}=76.8^{+2.6}_{-2.6}~\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}$. All of the above results assume a flat $Λ$ cold dark matter cosmology with a uniform prior on $Ω_{\textrm{m}}$ in [0.05, 0.5] and $H_{0}$ in [0, 150] $\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}$. This work is a collaboration of the SHARP and H0LiCOW teams, and shows that AO data can be used as the high-resolution imaging component in lens-based measurements of $H_0$. The full time-delay cosmography results from a total of six strongly lensed systems are presented in a companion paper.

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arXiv2019

Probing the Fundamental Nature of Dark Matter with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope

Astrophysical and cosmological observations currently provide the only robust, empirical measurements of dark matter. Future observations with Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will provide necessary guidance for the experimental dark matter program. This white paper represents a community effort to summarize the science case for studying the fundamental physics of dark matter with LSST. We discuss how LSST will inform our understanding of the fundamental properties of dark matter, such as particle mass, self-interaction strength, non-gravitational couplings to the Standard Model, and compact object abundances. Additionally, we discuss the ways that LSST will complement other experiments to strengthen our understanding of the fundamental characteristics of dark matter. More information on the LSST dark matter effort can be found at https://lsstdarkmatter.github.io/ .

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arXiv2019

Testing the Nature of Dark Matter with Extremely Large Telescopes

For nearly 40 years, dark matter has been widely assumed to be cold and collisionless. Cold dark matter models make fundamental predictions for the behavior of dark matter on small (<10 kpc) scales. These predictions include cuspy density profiles at the centers of dark matter halos and a halo mass function that increases as dN/dM ~ M^-1.9 down to very small masses. We suggest two observational programs relying on extremely large telescopes to critically test these predictions, and thus shed new light on the nature of dark matter. (1) Combining adaptive optics-enabled imaging with deep spectroscopy to measure the three-dimensional motions of stars within a sample of Local Group dwarf galaxies that are the cleanest dark matter laboratories known in the nearby universe. From these observations the inner slope of the dark matter density profile can be determined with an accuracy of 0.20 dex, enabling a central cusp to be distinguished from a core at 5 sigma significance. (2) Diffraction-limited AO imaging and integral field spectroscopy of gravitationally lensed galaxies and quasars to quantify the abundance of dark substructures in the halos of the lens galaxies and along the line of sight. Observations of 50 lensed arcs and 50 multiply-imaged quasars will be sufficient to measure the halo mass function over the range 10^7 < M < 10^10 Msun at cosmological scales, independent of the baryonic and stellar composition of those structures. These two observational probes provide complementary information about the small scale structure, with a joint self-consistent analysis mitigating limitations of either probe. This program will produce the strongest existing constraints on the properties of dark matter on small scales, allowing conclusive tests of alternative warm, fuzzy, and self-interacting dark matter models.

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arXiv2019

Measuring the Hubble Constant Near and Far in the Era of ELT's

Many of the fundamental physical constants in Physics, as a discipline, are measured to exquisite levels of precision. The fundamental constants that define Cosmology, however, are largely determined via a handful of independent techniques that are applied to even fewer datasets. The history of the measurement of the Hubble Constant (H0), which serves to anchor the expansion history of the Universe to its current value, is an exemplar of the difficulties of cosmological measurement; indeed, as we approach the centennial of its first measurement, the quest for H0 still consumes a great number of resources. In this white paper, we demonstrate how the approaching era of Extremely Large Telescopes (ELTs) will transform the astrophysical measure of H0 from the limited and few into a fundamentally new regime where (i) multiple, independent techniques are employed with modest use of large aperture facilities and (ii) 1% or better precision is readily attainable. This quantum leap in how we approach H0 is due to the unparalleled sensitivity and spatial resolution of ELT's and the ability to use integral field observations for simultaneous spectroscopy and photometry, which together permit both familiar and new techniques to effectively by-pass the conventional 'ladder' framework to minimize total uncertainty. Three independent techniques are discussed -- (i) standard candles via a two-step distance ladder applied to metal, poor stellar populations, (ii) standard clocks via gravitational lens cosmography, and (iii) standard sirens via gravitational wave sources -- each of which can reach 1% with relatively modest investment from 30-m class facilities.

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arXiv2019

Dark Matter Science in the Era of LSST

Astrophysical observations currently provide the only robust, empirical measurements of dark matter. In the coming decade, astrophysical observations will guide other experimental efforts, while simultaneously probing unique regions of dark matter parameter space. This white paper summarizes astrophysical observations that can constrain the fundamental physics of dark matter in the era of LSST. We describe how astrophysical observations will inform our understanding of the fundamental properties of dark matter, such as particle mass, self-interaction strength, non-gravitational interactions with the Standard Model, and compact object abundances. Additionally, we highlight theoretical work and experimental/observational facilities that will complement LSST to strengthen our understanding of the fundamental characteristics of dark matter.

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arXiv2018

Lenstronomy: multi-purpose gravitational lens modelling software package

We present Lenstronomy, a multi-purpose open-source gravitational lens modeling python package. Lenstronomy is able to reconstruct the lens mass and surface brightness distributions of strong lensing systems using forward modelling. Lenstronomy supports a wide range of analytic lens and light models in arbitrary combination. The software is also able to reconstruct complex extended sources (Birrer et. al 2015) as well as being able to model point sources. We designed Lenstronomy to be stable, flexible and numerically accurate, with a clear user interface that could be deployed across different platforms. Throughout its development, we have actively used Lenstronomy to make several measurements including deriving constraints on dark matter properties in strong lenses, measuring the expansion history of the universe with time-delay cosmography, measuring cosmic shear with Einstein rings and decomposing quasar and host galaxy light. The software is distributed under the MIT license. The documentation, starter guide, example notebooks, source code and installation guidelines can be found at https://lenstronomy.readthedocs.io.

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arXiv2018

Probing the nature of dark matter by forward modeling flux ratios in strong gravitational lenses

The free streaming length of dark matter particles determines the abundance of structure on sub-galactic scales. We present a statistical technique, amendable to any parameterization of subhalo density profile and mass function, to probe dark matter on these scales with quadrupole image lenses. We consider a warm dark matter particle with a mass function characterized by a normalization and free streaming scale $m_{\rm{hm}}$. We forecast bounds on dark matter warmth for 120-180 lenses, attainable with future surveys, at typical lens (source) redshifts of 0.5 (1.5) in early-type galaxies with velocity dispersions of 220-270 km/sec. We demonstrate that limits on $m_{\rm{hm}}$ deteriorate rapidly with increasing uncertainty in image fluxes, underscoring the importance of precise measurements and accurate lens models. For our forecasts, we assume the deflectors in the lens sample do not exhibit complex morphologies, so we neglect systematic errors in their modeling. Omitting the additional signal from line of sight halos, our constraints underestimate the true power of the method. Assuming cold dark matter, for a low normalization, corresponding the destruction of all subhalos within the host scale radius, we forecast $2σ$ bounds on $m_{\rm{hm}}$ (thermal relic mass) of $10^{7.5} \ (5.0)$, $10^{8} \ (3.6)$, and $10^{8.5} \ (2.7) \ M_{\odot} \left(\rm{keV}\right)$ for flux errors of $2\%$, $4\%$, and $8\%$. With a higher normalization, these constraints improve to $10^{7.2} \ (6.6)$, $10^{7.5} \ (5.3) $, and $10^{7.8} \ (4.3) \ M_{\odot} \left(\rm{keV}\right)$ with 120 systems. We are also able to measure the normalization of the mass function, which has implications for baryonic feedback models and tidal stripping.

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