arXiv subjects

Simon Stevenson

Publications and source records attributed to Simon Stevenson.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Explaining the differences in massive star models from various simulations

The evolution of massive stars is the basis of several astrophysical investigations, from predicting gravitational-wave event rates to studying star-formation and stellar populations in clusters. However, uncertainties in massive star evolution present a significant challenge when accounting for these models' behaviour in stellar population studies. In this work, we present a comparison between five published sets of stellar models from the BPASS, BoOST, Geneva, MIST, and PARSEC simulations at near-solar metallicity. The different sets of stellar models have been computed using slightly different physical inputs in terms of mass-loss rates and internal mixing properties. Moreover, these models also employ various pragmatic methods to overcome the numerical difficulties that arise due to the presence of density inversions in the outer layers of stars more massive than 40 M$_\odot$. These density inversions result from the combination of inefficient convection in the low-density envelopes of massive stars and the excess of radiative luminosity to the Eddington luminosity. We find that the ionizing radiation released by the stellar populations can change by up to 18 percent, the maximum radial expansion of a star can differ between 100-1600 R$_\odot$, and the mass of the stellar remnant can vary up to 20 M$_\odot$ between the five sets of simulations. We conclude that any attempts to explain observations that rely on the use of models of stars more massive than 40 M$_\odot$ should be made with caution.

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arXiv2022

Biases in estimates of black hole kicks from the spin distribution of binary black holes

A population of more than 50 binary black hole mergers has now been observed by the LIGO and Virgo gravitational-wave observatories. While neutron stars are known to have large velocities associated with impulsive kicks imparted to them at birth in supernovae, whether black holes receive similar kicks, and of what magnitude, remains an open question. Recently, Callister et al. (2021) analysed the binary black hole population under the hypothesis that they were all formed through isolated binary evolution and claimed that large black hole kicks (greater than 260 km/s at 99% confidence) were required for the spin distribution of merging binary black holes to match observations. Here we highlight that a key assumption made by Callister et al. (2021) -- that all secondary black holes can be tidally spun up -- is not motivated by physical models, and may lead to a bias in their estimate of the magnitudes of black hole kicks. We make only minor changes to the Callister et al. (2021) model, accounting for a population of wider merging binaries where tidal synchronisation is ineffective. We show that this naturally produces a bimodal spin distribution for secondary black holes, and that the spin-orbit misalignments observed in the binary black hole population can be explained by more typical black hole kicks of order 100 km/s, consistent with kicks inferred from Galactic X-ray binaries containing black holes. We conclude that the majority of the binary black hole population is consistent with forming through isolated binary evolution.

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arXiv2021

Rapid stellar and binary population synthesis with COMPAS

Compact Object Mergers: Population Astrophysics and Statistics (COMPAS; https://compas.science) is a public rapid binary population synthesis code. COMPAS generates populations of isolated stellar binaries under a set of parametrized assumptions in order to allow comparisons against observational data sets, such as those coming from gravitational-wave observations of merging compact remnants. It includes a number of tools for population processing in addition to the core binary evolution components. COMPAS is publicly available via the github repository https://github.com/TeamCOMPAS/COMPAS/, and is designed to allow for flexible modifications as evolutionary models improve. This paper describes the methodology and implementation of COMPAS. It is a living document which will be updated as new features are added to COMPAS; the current document describes COMPAS v02.21.00.

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arXiv2021

Impact of Massive Binary Star and Cosmic Evolution on Gravitational Wave Observations II: Double Compact Object Rates and Properties

Making the most of the rapidly increasing population of gravitational-wave detections of black hole (BH) and neutron star (NS) mergers requires comparing observations with population synthesis predictions. In this work we investigate the combined impact from the key uncertainties in population synthesis modelling of the isolated binary evolution channel: the physical processes in massive binary-star evolution and the star formation history as a function of metallicity, $Z$, and redshift $z, \mathcal{S}(Z,z)$. Considering these uncertainties we create 560 different publicly available model realizations and calculate the rate and distribution characteristics of detectable BHBH, BHNS, and NSNS mergers. We find that our stellar evolution and $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ variations can impact the predicted intrinsic and detectable merger rates by factors $10^2$-$10^4$. We find that BHBH rates are dominantly impacted by $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ variations, NSNS rates by stellar evolution variations and BHNS rates by both. We then consider the combined impact from all uncertainties considered in this work on the detectable mass distribution shapes (chirp mass, individual masses and mass ratio). We find that the BHNS mass distributions are predominantly impacted by massive binary-star evolution changes. For BHBH and NSNS we find that both uncertainties are important. We also find that the shape of the delay time and birth metallicity distributions are typically dominated by the choice of $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ for BHBH, BHNS and NSNS. We identify several examples of robust features in the mass distributions predicted by all 560 models, such that we expect more than 95% of BHBH detections to contain a BH $\gtrsim 8\,\rm{M}_{\odot}$ and have mass ratios $\lesssim 4$. Our work demonstrates that it is essential to consider a wide range of allowed models to study double compact object merger rates and properties.

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arXiv2021

Constraints on Weak Supernova Kicks from Observed Pulsar Velocities

Observations of binary pulsars and pulsars in globular clusters suggest that at least some pulsars must receive weak natal kicks at birth. If all pulsars received strong natal kicks above \unit[50]{\kms}, those born in globular clusters would predominantly escape, while wide binaries would be disrupted. On the other hand, observations of transverse velocities of isolated radio pulsars indicate that only $5\pm2\%$ have velocities below \unit[50]{\kms}. We explore this apparent tension with rapid binary population synthesis modelling. We propose a model in which supernovae with characteristically low natal kicks (e.g., electron-capture supernovae) only occur if the progenitor star has been stripped via binary interaction with a companion. We show that this model naturally reproduces the observed pulsar speed distribution and without reducing the predicted merging double neutron star yield. We estimate that the zero-age main sequence mass range for non-interacting progenitors of electron-capture supernovae should be no wider than ${\approx}0.2 M_\odot$.

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arXiv2021

Impact of Massive Binary Star and Cosmic Evolution on Gravitational Wave Observations I: Black Hole-Neutron Star Mergers

Mergers of black hole-neutron star (BHNS) binaries have now been observed by GW detectors with the recent announcement of GW200105 and GW200115. Such observations not only provide confirmation that these systems exist, but will also give unique insights into the death of massive stars, the evolution of binary systems and their possible association with gamma-ray bursts, $r$-process enrichment and kilonovae. Here we perform binary population synthesis of isolated BHNS systems in order to present their merger rate and characteristics for ground-based GW observatories. We present the results for 420 different model permutations that explore key uncertainties in our assumptions about massive binary star evolution (e.g. mass transfer, common-envelope evolution, supernovae), and the metallicity-specific star formation rate density, and characterize their relative impacts on our predictions. We find intrinsic local BHNS merger rates spanning $\mathcal{R}_{\rm{m}}^0 \approx 4$-$830\,\rm{Gpc}^{-3}\,\rm{yr}^{-1}$ for our full range of assumptions. This encompasses the rate inferred from recent BHNS GW detections, and would yield detection rates of $\mathcal{R}_{\rm{det}} \approx 1$-$180\, \rm{yr}^{-1}$ for a GW network consisting of LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA at design sensitivity. We find that the binary evolution and metallicity-specific star formation rate density each impact the predicted merger rates by order $\mathcal{O}(10)$. We also present predictions for the GW detected BHNS merger properties and find that all 420 model variations predict that $\lesssim 5\%$ of the BHNS mergers have BH masses $\gtrsim 18\,M_{\odot}$, total masses $ \gtrsim 20\,M_{\odot}$, chirp masses $\gtrsim 5.5\,M_{\odot}$, mass ratios $ \gtrsim 12$ or $\lesssim 2$. Moreover, we find that massive NSs $\gtrsim 2\,M_{\odot}$ are expected to be commonly detected in BHNS mergers in almost all our model variations.

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arXiv2021

Modelling Neutron Star-Black Hole Binaries: Future Pulsar Surveys and Gravitational Wave Detectors

Binaries comprised of a neutron star (NS) and a black hole (BH) have so far eluded observations as pulsars and with gravitational waves (GWs). We model the formation and evolution of these NS+BH binaries - including pulsar evolution - using the binary population synthesis code COMPAS. We predict the presence of a total of 50-2000 binaries containing a pulsar and a BH (PSR+BHs) in the Galactic field. We find the population observable by the next generation of radio telescopes, represented by the SKA and MeerKAT, current (LIGO/Virgo) and future (LISA) GW detectors. We conclude that the SKA will observe 1-80 PSR+BHs, with 0-4 binaries containing millisecond pulsars. MeerKAT is expected to observe 0-40 PSR+BH systems. Future radio detections of NS+BHs will constrain uncertain binary evolution processes such as BH natal kicks. We show that systems in which the NS formed first (NSBH) can be distinguished from those where the BH formed first (BHNS) by their pulsar and binary properties. We find 40% of the LIGO/Virgo observed NS+BHs from a Milky-Way like field population will have a chirp mass $\geq 3.0$ M$_\odot$. We estimate the spin distributions of NS+BHs with two models for the spins of BHs. The remnants of BHNS mergers will have a spin of $\sim$0.4, whilst NSBH merger remnants can have a spin of $\sim$0.6 or $\sim$0.9 depending on the model for BH spins. We estimate that approximately 25-1400 PSR+BHs will be radio alive whilst emitting GWs in the LISA frequency band, raising the possibility of joint observation by the SKA and LISA.

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arXiv2021

Heavy double neutron stars: birth, mid-life and death

Radio pulsar observations probe the lives of Galactic double neutron-star (DNS) systems while gravitational waves enable us to study extragalactic DNS in their final moments. By combining measurements from radio and gravitational-wave astronomy, we seek to gain a more complete understanding of DNS from formation to merger. We analyse the recent gravitational-wave binary neutron star mergers GW170817 and GW190425 in the context of other DNS known from radio astronomy. By employing a model for the birth and evolution of DNS, we measure the mass distribution of DNS at birth, at mid-life (in the radio), and at death (in gravitational waves). We consider the hypothesis that the high-mass gravitational-wave event GW190425 is part of a subpopulation formed through unstable case BB mass transfer, which quickly merge in $\sim 10-100~\mathrm{Myr}$. We find mild evidence to support this hypothesis and that GW190425 is not a clear outlier from the radio population as previously claimed. If there are fast-merging binaries, we estimate that they constitute $8-79\%$ of DNS at birth (90% credibility). We estimate the typical delay time between the birth and death of fast-merging binaries to be $\approx 5-401~\mathrm{Myr}$ (90% credibility). We discuss the implications for radio and gravitational-wave astronomy.

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arXiv2020

The fates of massive stars: exploring uncertainties in stellar evolution with METISSE

In the era of advanced electromagnetic and gravitational wave detectors, it has become increasingly important to effectively combine and study the impact of stellar evolution on binaries and dynamical systems of stars. Systematic studies dedicated to exploring uncertain parameters in stellar evolution are required to account for the recent observations of the stellar populations. We present a new approach to the commonly used Single-Star Evolution (SSE) fitting formulae, one that is more adaptable: Method of Interpolation for Single Star Evolution (METISSE). It makes use of interpolation between sets of pre-computed stellar tracks to approximate evolution parameters for a population of stars. We have used METISSE with detailed stellar tracks computed by the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), Bonn Evolutionary Code (BEC) and Cambridge STARS code. METISSE better reproduces stellar tracks computed using the STARS code compared to SSE, and is on average three times faster. Using stellar tracks computed with MESA and BEC, we apply METISSE to explore the differences in the remnant masses, the maximum radial expansion, and the main-sequence lifetime of massive stars. We find that different physical ingredients used in the evolution of stars, such as the treatment of radiation dominated envelopes, can impact their evolutionary outcome. For stars in the mass range 9 to 100 M$_\odot$, the predictions of remnant masses can vary by up to 20 M$_\odot$, while the maximum radial expansion achieved by a star can differ by an order of magnitude between different stellar models.

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arXiv2020

On the origin of GW190425

The LIGO/Virgo collaborations recently announced the detection of a likely binary neutron star merger, GW190425. The total mass of GW190425 is significantly larger than the masses of Galactic double neutron stars known through radio astronomy. This suggests that GW190425 formed differently from Galactic double neutron stars. We hypothesize that GW190425 formed via unstable "case BB" mass transfer. According to this hypothesis, the progenitor of GW190425 was a binary consisting of a neutron star and a ${\sim} 4-5 {M_\odot}$ helium star, which underwent a common-envelope process. Following the supernovae of the helium star core, a tight, eccentric, double neutron star was formed, which merged in ${\lesssim}$ 10 Myr. The helium star progenitor may explain the unusually large mass of GW190425, while the short time to merger may explain why we do not see similar systems in radio. In order to test this hypothesis, we measure the eccentricity of GW190425 using publicly available LIGO/Virgo data. We constrain the eccentricity at 10 Hz to be $e \leq 0.007$ with $90\%$ confidence. This result provides no evidence for or against the unstable mass transfer scenario because the binary is likely to have circularized to $e\lesssim10^{-4}$ by the time it entered the LIGO/Virgo band. Future detectors operating in lower frequency bands will enable us to discern the formation channel of mergers similar to GW190425 using eccentricity measurements.

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arXiv2020

Modelling Double Neutron Stars: Radio and Gravitational Waves

We have implemented prescriptions for modelling pulsars in the rapid binary population synthesis code COMPAS. We perform a detailed analysis of the double neutron star (DNS) population, accounting for radio survey selection effects. The surface magnetic field decay timescale (${\sim}1000$\,Myr) and mass scale (${\sim}0.02$\,M$_\odot$) are the dominant uncertainties in our model. Mass accretion during common envelope evolution plays a non-trivial role in recycling pulsars. We find a best-fit model that is in broad agreement with the observed Galactic DNS population. Though the pulsar parameters (period and period derivative) are strongly biased by radio selection effects, the observed orbital parameters (orbital period and eccentricity) closely represent the intrinsic distributions. The number of radio observable DNSs in the Milky Way at present is about 2500 in our model, corresponding to approximately 10\% of the predicted total number of DNSs in the galaxy. Using our model calibrated to the Galactic DNS population, we make predictions for DNS mergers observed in gravitational waves. The DNS chirp mass distribution varies from 1.1M$_\odot$ to 2.1M$_\odot$ and the median is found to be 1.14\,M$_\mathrm{\odot}$. The expected effective spin $χ_\mathrm{eff}$ for isolated DNSs is $\lesssim$0.03 from our model. We predict that 34\% of the current Galactic isolated DNSs will merge within a Hubble time, and have a median total mass of 2.7\,M$_\mathrm{\odot}$. Finally, we discuss implications for fast radio bursts and post-merger remnant gravitational-waves.

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arXiv2020

The origin of spin in binary black holes: Predicting the distributions of the main observables of Advanced LIGO

We study the formation of coalescing binary black holes via the evolution of isolated field binaries that go through the common envelope phase in order to obtain the combined distributions of the main observables of Advanced LIGO. We used a hybrid technique that combines the parametric binary population synthesis code COMPAS with detailed binary evolution simulations performed with the MESA code. We then convolved our binary evolution calculations with the redshift- and metallicity-dependent star-formation rate and the selection effects of gravitational-wave detectors to obtain predictions of observable properties. By assuming efficient angular momentum transport, we are able to present a model that is capable of simultaneously predicting the three main gravitational-wave observables: the effective inspiral spin parameter $χ_{eff}$, the chirp mass $M_{chirp}$, and the cosmological redshift of merger $z_{merger}$. We find an excellent agreement between our model and the ten events from the first two advanced detector observing runs. We make predictions for the third observing run O3 and for Advanced LIGO design sensitivity. We expect around 80% of events with $χ_{eff} < 0.1$, while the remaining 20% of events with $χ_{eff} \ge 0.1$ are split into ~10% with $M_{chirp} < 15$ M$_\odot$ and ~10% with $M_{chirp} \ge 15$ M$_\odot$. In conclusion, the favorable comparison of the existing LIGO/Virgo observations with our model predictions gives support to the idea that the majority, if not all of the observed mergers, originate from the evolution of isolated binaries. The first-born black hole has negligible spin because it lost its envelope after it expanded to become a giant star, while the spin of the second-born black hole is determined by the tidal spin up of its naked helium star progenitor by the first-born black hole companion after the binary finished the common-envelope phase.

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arXiv2020

Luminous Red Novae: population models and future prospects

A class of optical transients known as Luminous Red Novae (LRNe) have recently been associated with mass ejections from binary stars undergoing common-envelope evolution. We use the population synthesis code COMPAS to explore the impact of a range of assumptions about the physics of common-envelope evolution on the properties of LRNe. In particular, we investigate the influence of various models for the energetics of LRNe on the expected event rate and light curve characteristics, and compare with the existing sample. We find that the Galactic rate of LRNe is $\sim 0.2$ yr$^{-1}$, in agreement with the observed rate. In our models, the luminosity function of Galactic LRNe covers multiple decades in luminosity and is dominated by signals from stellar mergers, consistent with observational constraints from iPTF and the Galactic sample of LRNe. We discuss how observations of the brightest LRNe may provide indirect evidence for the existence of massive ($> 40$ M$_\odot$) red supergiants. Such LRNe could be markers along the evolutionary pathway leading to the formation of double compact objects. We make predictions for the population of LRNe observable in future transient surveys with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and the Zwicky Transient Facility. In all plausible circumstances, we predict a selection-limited observable population dominated by bright, long-duration events caused by common envelope ejections. We show that the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope will observe $20$--$750$ LRNe per year, quickly constraining the luminosity function of LRNe and probing the physics of common-envelope events.

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arXiv2020

Detecting Double Neutron Stars with LISA

We estimate the properties of the double neutron star (DNS) population that will be observable by the planned space-based interferometer LISA. By following the gravitational radiation driven evolution of DNSs generated from rapid population synthesis of massive binary stars, we estimate that around 35 DNSs will accumulate a signal-to-noise ratio above 8 over a four-year LISA mission. The observed population mainly comprises Galactic DNSs (94 per cent), but detections in the LMC (5 per cent) and SMC (1 per cent) may also be expected. The median orbital frequency of detected DNSs is expected to be 0.8 mHz, and many of them will be eccentric (median eccentricity of $0.11$). The orbital properties will provide insights into DNS progenitors and formation channels. LISA is expected to localise these DNSs to a typical angular resolution of $2^\circ$, with best-constrained sources localised to a few arcminutes. These localisations may allow neutron star natal kick magnitudes to be constrained through the Galactic distribution of DNSs, and make it possible to follow up the sources with radio pulsar searches. However, LISA is also expected to resolve $\sim 10^4$ Galactic double white dwarfs, many of which may have binary parameters that resemble DNSs; we discuss how the combined measurement of binary eccentricity, chirp mass, and sky location may aid the identification of a DNS. We expect the best-constrained DNSs to have eccentricities known to a few parts in a thousand, chirp masses measured to better than 1 per cent fractional uncertainty, and sky localisation at the level of a few arcminutes.

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arXiv2019

STROOPWAFEL: Simulating rare outcomes from astrophysical populations, with application to gravitational-wave sources

Gravitational-wave observations of double compact object (DCO) mergers are providing new insights into the physics of massive stars and the evolution of binary systems. Making the most of expected near-future observations for understanding stellar physics will rely on comparisons with binary population synthesis models. However, the vast majority of simulated binaries never produce DCOs, which makes calculating such populations computationally inefficient. We present an importance sampling algorithm, STROOPWAFEL, that improves the computational efficiency of population studies of rare events, by focusing the simulation around regions of the initial parameter space found to produce outputs of interest. We implement the algorithm in the binary population synthesis code COMPAS, and compare the efficiency of our implementation to the standard method of Monte Carlo sampling from the birth probability distributions. STROOPWAFEL finds $\sim$25-200 times more DCO mergers than the standard sampling method with the same simulation size, and so speeds up simulations by up to two orders of magnitude. Finding more DCO mergers automatically maps the parameter space with far higher resolution than when using the traditional sampling. This increase in efficiency also leads to a decrease of a factor $\sim$3-10 in statistical sampling uncertainty for the predictions from the simulations. This is particularly notable for the distribution functions of observable quantities such as the black hole and neutron star chirp mass distribution, including in the tails of the distribution functions where predictions using standard sampling can be dominated by sampling noise.

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arXiv2019

The impact of pair-instability mass loss on the binary black hole mass distribution

A population of binary black hole mergers has now been observed in gravitational waves by Advanced LIGO and Virgo. The masses of these black holes appear to show evidence for a pile-up between $30$--$45$ $M_\odot$ and a cut-off above $\sim 45$ $M_\odot$. One possible explanation for such a pile-up and subsequent cut-off are pulsational pair-instability supernovae (PPISNe) and pair-instability supernovae (PISNe) in massive stars. We investigate the plausibility of this explanation in the context of isolated massive binaries. We study a population of massive binaries using the rapid population synthesis software COMPAS, incorporating models for PPISNe and PISNe. Our models predict a maximum black hole mass of $40$ $M_\odot$. We expect $\sim 10$\% of all binary black hole mergers at redshift z = 0 will include at least one component that went through a PPISN (with mass $30$--$40$ $M_\odot$), constituting $\sim 20$--$50$\% of binary black hole mergers observed during the first two observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Virgo. Empirical models based on fitting the gravitational-wave mass measurements to a combination of a power law and a Gaussian find a fraction too large to be associated with PPISNe in our models. The rates of PPISNe and PISNe track the low metallicity star formation rate, increasing out to redshift $z = 2$. These predictions may be tested both with future gravitational-wave observations and with observations of superluminous supernovae.

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arXiv2019

Unmodelled Clustering Methods for Gravitational Wave Populations of Compact Binary Mergers

The mass and spin distributions of compact binary gravitational-wave sources are currently uncertain due to complicated astrophysics involved in their formation. Multiple sub-populations of compact binaries representing different evolutionary scenarios may be present among sources detected by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. In addition to hierarchical modelling, unmodelled methods can aid in determining the number of sub-populations and their properties. In this paper, we apply Gaussian mixture model clustering to 1000 simulated gravitational-wave compact binary sources from a mixture of five sub-populations. Using both mass and spin as input parameters, we determine how many binary detections are needed to accurately determine the number of sub-populations and their mass and spin distributions. In the most difficult case that we consider, where two sub-populations have identical mass distributions but differ in their spin, which is poorly constrained by gravitational-wave detections, we find that ~ 400 detections are needed before we can identify the correct number of sub-populations.

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arXiv2019

The effect of the metallicity-specific star formation history on double compact object mergers

We investigate the impact of uncertainty in the metallicity-specific star formation rate over cosmic time on predictions of the rates and masses of double compact object mergers observable through gravitational waves. We find that this uncertainty can change the predicted detectable merger rate by more than an order of magnitude, comparable to contributions from uncertain physical assumptions regarding binary evolution, such as mass transfer efficiency or supernova kicks. We statistically compare the results produced by the COMPAS population synthesis suite against a catalog of gravitational-wave detections from the first two Advanced LIGO and Virgo observing runs. We find that the rate and chirp mass of observed binary black hole mergers can be well matched under our default evolutionary model with a star formation metallicity spread of $0.39$ dex around a mean metallicity $\left $ that scales with redshift $z$ as $\left =0.035 \times 10^{-0.23 z}$, assuming a star formation rate of $0.01 \times (1+z)^{2.77} / (1+((1+z)/2.9)^{4.7}) \, \rm{M}_\odot$ Mpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$. Intriguingly, this default model predicts that 80\% of the approximately one binary black hole merger per day that will be detectable at design sensitivity will have formed through isolated binary evolution with only dynamically stable mass transfer, i.e., without experiencing a common-envelope event.

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