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Simon Stevenson

Publications and source records attributed to Simon Stevenson.

48 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

On the formation history of Galactic double neutron stars

Double neutron stars (DNSs) have been observed as Galactic radio pulsars, and the recent discovery of gravitational waves from the DNS merger GW170817 adds to the known DNS population. We perform rapid population synthesis of massive binary stars and discuss model predictions, including formation rates, mass distributions, and delay time distributions. We vary assumptions and parameters of physical processes such as mass transfer stability criteria, supernova kick distributions, remnant mass distributions and common-envelope energetics. We compute the likelihood of observing the orbital period-eccentricity distribution of the Galactic DNS population under each of our population synthesis models, allowing us to quantitatively compare the models. We find that mass transfer from a stripped post-helium-burning secondary (case BB) onto a neutron star is most likely dynamically stable. We also find that a natal kick distribution composed of both low (Maxwellian $σ=30\rm~km~s^{-1}$) and high ($σ=265\rm~km~s^{-1}$) components is preferred over a single high-kick component. We find that the observed DNS mass distribution can place strong constraints on model assumptions.

astro-ph.SR↗

Accuracy of inference on the physics of binary evolution from gravitational-wave observations

The properties of the population of merging binary black holes encode some of the uncertain physics of the evolution of massive stars in binaries. The binary black hole merger rate and chirp mass distribution are being measured by ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. We consider isolated binary evolution and explore how accurately the physical model can be constrained with such observations by applying the Fisher information matrix to the merging black hole population simulated with the rapid binary population synthesis code COMPAS. We investigate variations in four COMPAS parameters: common envelope efficiency, kick velocity dispersion, and mass loss rates during the luminous blue variable and Wolf--Rayet stellar evolutionary phases. We find that 1000 observations would constrain these model parameters to a fractional accuracy of a few percent. Given the empirically determined binary black hole merger rate, we can expect gravitational-wave observations alone to place strong constraints on the physics of stellar and binary evolution within a few years.

astro-ph.HE↗

Hierarchical analysis of gravitational-wave measurements of binary black hole spin-orbit misalignments

Binary black holes may form both through isolated binary evolution and through dynamical interactions in dense stellar environments. The formation channel leaves an imprint on the alignment between the black hole spins and the orbital angular momentum. Gravitational waves from these systems directly encode information about the spin--orbit misalignment angles, allowing them to be (weakly) constrained. Identifying sub-populations of spinning binary black holes will inform us about compact binary formation and evolution. We simulate a mixed population of binary black holes with spin--orbit misalignments modelled under a range of assumptions. We then develop a hierarchical analysis and apply it to mock gravitational-wave observations of these populations. Assuming a population with dimensionless spin magnitudes of $χ= 0.7$, we show that tens of observations will make it possible to distinguish the presence of subpopulations of coalescing binary black holes based on their spin orientations. With $100$ observations it will be possible to infer the relative fraction of coalescing binary black holes with isotropic spin directions (corresponding to dynamical formation in our models) with a fractional uncertainty of $\sim 40\%$. Meanwhile, only $\sim 5$ observations are sufficient to distinguish between extreme models---all binary black holes either having exactly aligned spins or isotropic spin directions.

astro-ph.HE↗

Distinguishing Spin-Aligned and Isotropic Black Hole Populations With Gravitational Waves

The first direct detections of gravitational waves from merging binary black holes open a unique window into the binary black hole formation environment. One promising environmental signature is the angular distribution of the black hole spins; systems formed through dynamical interactions among already-compact objects are expected to have isotropic spin orientations whereas binaries formed from pairs of stars born together are more likely to have spins preferentially aligned with the binary orbital angular momentum. We consider existing gravitational wave measurements of the binary effective spin, the best-measured combination of spin parameters, in the four likely binary black hole detections GW150914, LVT151012, GW151226, and GW170104. If binary black hole spin magnitudes extend to high values we show that the data exhibit a $2.4σ$ ($0.015$ odds ratio) preference for an isotropic angular distribution over an aligned one. By considering the effect of 10 additional detections, we show that such an augmented data set would enable in most cases a preference stronger than $5σ$ ($2.9 \times 10^{-7}$ odds ratio). The existing preference for either an isotropic spin distribution or low spin magnitudes for the observed systems will be confirmed (or overturned) confidently in the near future.

astro-ph.HE↗

Exploring the Parameter Space of Compact Binary Population Synthesis

As we enter the era of gravitational wave astronomy, we are beginning to collect observations which will enable us to explore aspects of astrophysics of massive stellar binaries which were previously beyond reach. In this paper we describe COMPAS (Compact Object Mergers: Population Astrophysics and Statistics), a new platform to allow us to deepen our understanding of isolated binary evolution and the formation of gravitational-wave sources. We describe the computational challenges associated with their exploration, and present preliminary results on overcoming them using Gaussian process regression as a simulation emulation technique.

astro-ph.HE↗

Formation of the first three gravitational-wave observations through isolated binary evolution

During its first 4 months of taking data, Advanced LIGO has detected gravitational waves from two binary black hole mergers, GW150914 and GW151226, along with the statistically less significant binary black hole merger candidate LVT151012. We use our rapid binary population synthesis code COMPAS to show that all three events can be explained by a single evolutionary channel -- classical isolated binary evolution via mass transfer including a common envelope phase. We show all three events could have formed in low-metallicity environments (Z = 0.001) from progenitor binaries with typical total masses $\gtrsim 160 M_\odot$, $\gtrsim 60 M_\odot$ and $\gtrsim 90 M_\odot$, for GW150914, GW151226, and LVT151012, respectively.

astro-ph.HE↗

Model-independent inference on compact-binary observations

The recent advanced LIGO detections of gravitational waves from merging binary black holes enhance the prospect of exploring binary evolution via gravitational-wave observations of a population of compact-object binaries. In the face of uncertainty about binary formation models, model-independent inference provides an appealing alternative to comparisons between observed and modelled populations. We describe a procedure for clustering in the multi-dimensional parameter space of observations that are subject to significant measurement errors. We apply this procedure to a mock data set of population-synthesis predictions for the masses of merging compact binaries convolved with realistic measurement uncertainties, and demonstrate that we can accurately distinguish subpopulations of binary neutron stars, binary black holes, and mixed neutron star -- black hole binaries with tens of observations.

astro-ph.HE↗

Inference on gravitational waves from coalescences of stellar-mass compact objects and intermediate-mass black holes

Gravitational waves from coalescences of neutron stars or stellar-mass black holes into intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) of $\gtrsim 100$ solar masses represent one of the exciting possible sources for advanced gravitational-wave detectors. These sources can provide definitive evidence for the existence of IMBHs, probe globular-cluster dynamics, and potentially serve as tests of general relativity. We analyse the accuracy with which we can measure the masses and spins of the IMBH and its companion in intermediate-mass ratio coalescences. We find that we can identify an IMBH with a mass above $100 ~ M_\odot$ with $95\%$ confidence provided the massive body exceeds $130 ~ M_\odot$. For source masses above $\sim200 ~ M_\odot$, the best measured parameter is the frequency of the quasi-normal ringdown. Consequently, the total mass is measured better than the chirp mass for massive binaries, but the total mass is still partly degenerate with spin, which cannot be accurately measured. Low-frequency detector sensitivity is particularly important for massive sources, since sensitivity to the inspiral phase is critical for measuring the mass of the stellar-mass companion. We show that we can accurately infer source parameters for cosmologically redshifted signals by applying appropriate corrections. We investigate the impact of uncertainty in the model gravitational waveforms and conclude that our main results are likely robust to systematics.

astro-ph.HE↗

Distinguishing compact binary population synthesis models using gravitational-wave observations of coalescing binary black holes

The coalescence of compact binaries containing neutron stars or black holes is one of the most promising signals for advanced ground-based laser interferometer gravitational-wave detectors, with the first direct detections expected over the next few years. The rate of binary coalescences and the distribution of component masses is highly uncertain, and population synthesis models predict a wide range of plausible values. Poorly constrained parameters in population synthesis models correspond to poorly understood astrophysics at various stages in the evolution of massive binary stars, the progenitors of binary neutron star and binary black hole systems. These include effects such as supernova kick velocities, parameters governing the energetics of common envelope evolution and the strength of stellar winds. Observing multiple binary black hole systems through gravitational waves will allow us to infer details of the astrophysical mechanisms that lead to their formation. Here we simulate gravitational-wave observations from a series of population synthesis models including the effects of known selection biases, measurement errors and cosmology. We compare the predictions arising from different models and show that we will be able to distinguish between them with observations (or the lack of them) from the early runs of the advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors. This will allow us to narrow down the large parameter space for binary evolution models.

astro-ph.HE↗

Multivariate Modeling of Daily REIT Volatility

This paper examines volatility in REITs using a multivariate GARCH based model. The Multivariate VAR-GARCH technique documents the return and volatility linkages between REIT sub-sectors and also examines the influence of other US equity series. The motivation is for investors to incorporate time-varyng volatility and correlations in their portfolio selection. The results illustrate the differences in results when higher frequency daily data is tested in comparison to the monthly data that has been commonly used in the existing literature. The linkages both within the REIT sector and between REITs and related sectors such as value stocks are weaker than commonly found in monthly studies. The broad market would appear to be more influential in the daily case.

q-fin.ST↗

Modeling Long Memory in REITs

One stylized feature of financial volatility impacting the modeling process is long memory. This paper examines long memory for alternative risk measures, observed absolute and squared returns for Daily REITs and compares the findings for a non- REIT equity index. The paper utilizes a variety of tests for long memory finding evidence that REIT volatility does display persistence, in contrast to the actual return series. Trading volume is found to be strongly associated with long memory. The results do however suggest differences in the findings with regard to REITs in comparison to the broader equity sector which may be due to relatively thin trading during the sample period.

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Uncovering Volatility Dynamics in Daily REIT Returns

Using a time-varying approach, this paper examines the dynamics of volatility in the REIT sector. The results highlight the attractiveness and suitability of using GARCH based approaches in the modeling of daily REIT volatility. The paper examines the influencing factors on REIT volatility, documenting the return and volatility linkages between REIT sub-sectors and also examines the influence of other US equity series. The results contrast with previous studies of monthly REIT volatility. Linkages within the REIT sector and with related sectors such as value stocks are diminished, while the general influence of market sentiment, coming through the large cap indices is enhanced. This would indicate that on a daily basis general market sentiment plays a more fundamental role than more intuitive relationships within the capital markets.

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