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Stanisław M. S. Halkiewicz

Publications and source records attributed to Stanisław M. S. Halkiewicz.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

Compatibility and Exclusivity of Loss Functions under Statistical Optimality

In applications a loss is usually chosen from a family, like a quantile level, a robustness threshold or a surrogate margin loss. In this paper, we ask which of these choices change the optimal decision. A model, a class of decision rules and an optimality criterion define an optimality map $L\mapsto\cO(L)$. Two losses are compatible when they share an optimal rule, and exclusivity regions are unions of the connected components of this relation. When $\cO$ is single-valued these components are the fibres of the map, and the problem is to identify the statistically meaningful features of a loss that determine its fibre. Under explicit model assumptions, the answer is the quantile level for generalized piecewise linear quantile scores and the margin invariant (equivalently, the link) for regular margin losses read at the score level. For canonical Huber losses on strictly skewed location models, a class that includes every asymmetric Laplace model, it is the threshold. Two structural results hold in general. Convex interpolation between losses with distinct unique Bayes acts meets uncountably many compatibility classes, so the structure is conic rather than convex. Coarsening the optimality operator can only merge components, which is how the known common Bayes classifier of calibrated surrogates arises.

math.ST↗

Breakdown Reliability for Saturated Fixed-Effect Inference

Fixed-effect saturation does not itself distort conventional inference, but classical measurement error does. Under a local noise drift $σ_ν^2=c^2/n$, the FE-OLS $t$-statistic converges to a non-central normal; saturation contributes a common $\sqrt{1-ρ}$ scaling rather than preferentially destroying signal or noise. Inverting the size distortion gives a Stock--Yogo-style critical value. Self-consistency of the within-reliability-corrected pilot yields a breakdown reliability $λ^{\dagger}=|t|/(|t|+η^{\dagger})$ --- the minimum within reliability at which conventional inference retains nominal size within the chosen tolerance --- computable from the reported $t$-statistic alone and algebraically $ρ$-free conditional on it; $η^{\dagger}\approx0.65$ at $5\%$ size and a 5-point tolerance. Replacing $|t|$ by $|t|+z_{1-γ_β}$ gives a certified breakdown reliability; with a lower-reliability bound whose coverage error is $γ_λ$, false certification is at most $γ_β+γ_λ$. Under a checkable projection-compatibility condition, a cluster-level score CLT and consistency of the Arellano variance estimator in the many-fixed-effect regime justify applying the same map to the reported cluster-robust $t$-statistic; clustering can reverse a verdict. In a saturated democracy--growth panel, aggregate V-Dem polyarchy is certified at $γ_β=0.05$, conditional on the supplied measurement model, while its judicial-constraints sub-index is flagged under i.i.d.\ and clustered standard errors. In a twin-pair wage design, the specification is flagged under both independent and correlated reporting-error models, although implied coverage of the nominal-$95\%$ interval ranges from $8\%$ to $68\%$. The diagnostic covers classical error in a continuous regressor, not binary-treatment misclassification.

econ.EM↗

Exact Inference in Fixed-Effect Regressions with Concentrated Identifying Variation

In fixed-effect regressions with many groups, fixed effects can absorb most identifying variation, leaving a handful of observations to carry what remains. When variation is this concentrated, conventional $t$-tests can reject a true null more than half the time, and any fixed critical value is either invalid or so conservative it has essentially no power. This paper builds an exact test from the design alone. A \textit{nuisance-annihilating contrast} is a linear combination of the treatment and fixed-effect dummies that eliminates the fixed effects without touching the outcome; sign-flipping these contrasts is then an exact symmetry of the null distribution at every sample size, under arbitrary heteroskedasticity. In two-way designs --- worker-firm, firm-time --- these contrasts are exactly the cycles of the bipartite mobility graph, so the movement that identifies the treatment effect is what makes exact inference possible. Exactness costs power: relative to an oracle test, a chosen set of cycles has an observable \textit{capture ratio} $\kap\in[0,1]$ and standard-error premium $\kap^{-1/2}$, and a packing algorithm resolves the capture-granularity trade-off. In the Grunfeld investment regression (single-observation score concentration $73.9\%$), 32 cycle contrasts capture $\kap=0.627$ of the identifying variation, giving an exact $95\%$ confidence interval of $[0.150,\,0.450]$.

econ.EM↗

Split-Twin Extensions Preserving Seymour Vertices

The Second Neighborhood Conjecture of Seymour asserts that every oriented graph contains a vertex~$v$ satisfying $|\Npp(v)|\ge|\Np(v)|$. We introduce \emph{Pisa graphs} -- strongly connected oriented graphs~$D$ with $Δ(D)=\max_{v\in V(D)}\bigl(|\Npp(v)|-|\Np(v)|\bigr)=0$ -- named after the Leaning Tower of Pisa, as these graphs stand at the precise boundary between satisfying and potentially violating the conjecture. We prove that a Pisa graph containing a vertex of outdegree one must have underlying graph~$C_n$. We verify computationally that every Pisa graph on at most seven vertices has underlying graph isomorphic to either~$C_n$ or~$K_n$ minus a matching, and conjecture this holds in general. Partial structural results are presented, including a decomposition formula for the sum of all vertex margins, and a connection to blowup constructions for potential counterexamples due to Zelenskyi, Darmosiuk and Nalivayko.

math.CO↗

Variance Estimation for Saturated Fixed-Effect Specifications

We characterize the asymptotic behavior of conventional variance estimators in linear regression with high-dimensional fixed effects under a drift in which both the proportional fixed-effect dimension $ρ_n = d_{K_n}/n \to ρ\in [0,1)$ and the residual treatment variance $τ_n^2 = nQ_{K_n} \to τ^2 \in (0, \infty]$ are non-degenerate. Three findings emerge. First, under strict exogeneity and conditional homoskedasticity, the Cattaneo--Jansson--Newey-corrected $t$-statistic is asymptotically exact for any $τ^2 > 0$: there is no Stock--Yogo-style threshold in $τ^2$. Second, the Eicker--White HC0 estimator is biased downward by a fixed factor $(1-ρ)$, producing over-rejection that grows with saturation. Third, HC3 over-corrects in the opposite direction by a factor $1/(1-ρ)$. The leave-one-out estimator (HC2) removes the first-order leverage distortion and is asymptotically exact under homoskedasticity or design-balanced heteroskedasticity; under general heteroskedasticity with non-uniform leverage, HC2 retains an additional bias of order $ρ|μ- ω^2|$ that we characterize. An empirical application to Piotroski F-Score returns in CEE markets illustrates the predicted variance hierarchy in real data.

econ.EM↗

Rolling-Origin Conformal Prediction under Local Stationarity and Weak Dependence

We propose and analyse rolling-origin conformal prediction for time-series forecasting. The method calibrates the conformal quantile against the $m$ most recent pseudo-out-of-sample forecast errors, adapting to serial dependence, volatility clustering, and distributional drift that invalidate classical conformal guarantees. Under Hölder-$β$ local stationarity and $α$-mixing, we establish a four-term coverage-error decomposition and derive the optimal calibration window $m^{\star} \asymp T^{2β/(2β+1)}$ with coverage-error rate $O(T^{-β/(2β+1)})$. A Le Cam two-point construction shows this rate is minimax-optimal over the Hölder-$β$ model class. The Bahadur representation is proved under both $α$-mixing and the physical-dependence framework of Wu (2005). An oracle inequality formalises Winkler cross-validation as an adaptive window selector; the required uniform concentration condition is established in an appendix. Validation on six real series and 93 M4 competition series confirms the theory: rolling-origin calibration outperforms full-history calibration in 86\% of comparisons (median Winkler improvement 12.3\%), maintains coverage within $\pm2\%$ of the 90\% target at short and medium horizons, and the cross-frequency log-log regression slope $0.614$ ($95\%$ CI $[0.424, 0.805]$) is consistent with the theoretical $2/3$ after controlling for frequency fixed effects.

stat.ME↗

NA-DiD: Extending Difference-in-Differences with Capabilities

This paper introduces the Non-Additive Difference-in-Differences (NA-DiD) framework, which extends classical DiD by incorporating non-additive measures the Choquet integral for effect aggregation. It serves as a novel econometric tool for impact evaluation, particularly in settings with non-additive treatment effects. First, we introduce the integral representation of the classial DiD model, and then extend it to non-additive measures, therefore deriving the formulae for NA-DiD estimation. Then, we give its theoretical properties. Applying NA-DiD to a simulated hospital hygiene intervention, we find that classical DiD can overestimate treatment effects, f.e. failing to account for compliance erosion. In contrast, NA-DiD provides a more accurate estimate by incorporating non-linear aggregation. The Julia implementation of the techniques used and introduced in this article is provided in the appendices.

econ.EM↗

The Omniscient, yet Lazy, Investor

We formalize the paradox of an omniscient yet lazy investor - a perfectly informed agent who trades infrequently due to execution or computational frictions. Starting from a deterministic geometric construction, we derive a closed-form expected profit function linking trading frequency, execution cost, and path roughness. We prove existence and uniqueness of the optimal trading frequency and show that this optimum can be interpreted through the fractal dimension of the price path. A stochastic extension under fractional Brownian motion provides analytical expressions for the optimal interval and comparative statics with respect to the Hurst exponent. Empirical illustrations on equity data confirm the theoretical scaling behavior.

q-fin.TR↗