arXiv subjects

Stanislav Babak

Publications and source records attributed to Stanislav Babak.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Parameter Estimation for Eccentric Supermassive Black Hole Binaries with Pulsar Timing Arrays

Pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments are searching for gravitational waves (GWs) in the nanohertz band. The primary GW sources targeted by PTAs include populations of inspiralling supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) in the local Universe, some of which may emit detectable continuous gravitational-wave (CGW) signals. In this paper, we focus on the detection strategy for individual binaries on eccentric orbits. Using simulated datasets based on the EPTA DR2new configuration, we perform injection-recovery studies across the parameter space. We demonstrate that individual component masses can be measured when an eccentric SMBHB is detected at high GW frequencies. We further show a correlation between the CGW signal and the stochastic gravitational-wave background (SGWB) at low frequencies, which makes CGW identification challenging. Finally, the developed software is GPU-compatible, enabling efficient Bayesian inference. This work lays the groundwork for future applications to real PTA data.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Effective-one-body modelling of eccentric supermassive black hole binaries for Pulsar Timing Array

Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs) observations will detect gravitational waves (GWs) from the early inspiral phase of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) with orbital periods of weeks to years. Current PTA analyses generally assume circular binaries; however, dynamical interactions with the surrounding environment can prevent complete circularisation, allowing SMBHBs to retain appreciable eccentricities. In this work, we present a gravitational waveform model for eccentric binaries based on the Effective-One-Body (EOB) formalism, designed for continuous GW searches in PTA data. The model is accurate up to the second post-Newtonian (2PN) order for the conservative dynamics and up to post-leading order for the radiation-reaction terms. We provide both a numerically precise and a computationally efficient approximate implementation and evaluate the latter's accuracy against the full model over a broad range of eccentricities and initial orbital frequencies. Our results show that a substantial region of the parameter space exhibits pronounced orbital evolution, much stronger than in the circular case. We demonstrate the rich harmonic structure of timing residuals induced by eccentric GWs. Properly characterising eccentric binaries is an essential step toward detecting GWs in PTA data and interpreting the results, ultimately improving our understanding of the supermassive black hole population in the local Universe.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Contamination of transient gravitational waves in LISA data by gaps and glitches

We present a probabilistic framework to quantify the impact of artefacts (glitches and gaps) in LISA data on transient gravitational wave signals. By modeling both artefacts and transient signals as independent Poisson processes, and characterising the contaminating effect of an artefact by an associated dead time, we estimate the probability distribution of the total contamination time during the observation period using a Normal approximation under various contamination scenarios. Using the same approach, we also estimate the probability that a population of transient signals contaminates each other. We demonstrate the validity of the Normal approximation by comparing it to the numerical distribution obtained via simulations. Our approach provides a rapid means to assess the potential impact of glitches and gaps on LISA science, and can be used as a figure of merit to evaluate different instrumental scenarios.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

The multimessenger view of Pulsar Timing Array black holes with the Horizon-AGN simulation

We use the Horizon-AGN cosmological simulation to study the properties of supermassive black hole binaries (MBHBs) contributing most to the gravitational wave background (GWB) signal expected in the pulsar timing array (PTA) band. We develop a pipeline to generate realistic populations of MBHBs, allowing us to estimate both the characteristic strain and GWB time series observable by PTA experiments. We identify potential continuous wave (CW) candidates standing above the background noise, using toy PTA sensitivities representing the current EPTA and future SKA. We estimate the probability of detecting at least one CW with signal-to-noise ratio $>3$ to be $4\%$ ($20\%$) for EPTA (SKA)-like sensitivities, assuming a 10-year baseline. We find the GWB to be dominated by hundreds to thousands of binaries at redshifts in the range $0.05-1$, with chirp masses of $10^{8.5}-10^{9.5}\, M_\odot$, hosted mainly in quiescent massive galaxies residing in halos of mass $\sim 10^{13}\, M_\odot$. CW candidates have larger masses, lower redshifts and are found in even more massive halos, typical of galaxy groups and clusters. The majority of these systems would appear as AGN rather than quasars, because of their low Eddington ratios. Nevertheless, CW candidates with $f_{\rm Edd}>10^{-3}$ can still outshine their hosts, particularly in radio and X-ray bands, suggesting them as the most promising route for identification. Our findings imply that optical and near-infrared searches based on light curve variability are challenging and biased toward more luminous systems. Finally, we highlight important caveats in the common method used to compare PTA observations with theoretical models. We find that GWB spectral inferences used by PTAs could be biased toward shallower slopes and higher amplitudes at $f=1/\rm yr$, thereby reducing the apparent tension between astrophysical expectations and PTA observations.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Assessing signal cross talk between extreme-mass-ratio inspirals and Galactic binaries in LISA data

The future space-based gravitational wave observatory, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, is expected to observe between 1-1000s extreme mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs) per year. Due to the simultaneous presence of other gravitational wave signals in the data, it can be challenging to detect EMRIs and accurately estimate their parameters. In this work, we investigate the interaction between a gravitational signal from an EMRI and millions of signals from inspiralling Galactic white dwarf binaries. We demonstrate that bright Galactic binaries can contaminate the detection and characterization of EMRIs. We perform Bayesian inference of EMRI parameters after removing resolvable Galactic binaries and confirm an accuracy comparable to that expected in Gaussian noise.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Multiband parameter estimation with phase coherence and extrinsic marginalization: Extracting more information from low-SNR CBC signals in LISA data

This paper presents a novel coherent multiband analysis framework for characterizing stellar- and intermediate-mass binary black holes using LISA and next-generation ground-based detectors (ET and CE), leveraging the latest developments in the \texttt{PyCBC} pipeline. Given the population parameters inferred from LVK results and LISA's sensitivity limits at high frequencies, most stellar-mass binary black holes would likely have SNRs below 5 in LISA, but the most state-of-the-art multiband parameter estimation methods, such as those using ET and CE posteriors as priors for LISA, typically struggle to analyze sources with a LISA SNR less than 5. We present a novel coherent multiband parameter estimation method that directly calculates a joint likelihood, which is highly efficient; this efficiency is enabled by multiband marginalization of the extrinsic parameter space, implemented using importance sampling, which can work robustly even when the LISA SNR is as low as 3. Having an SNR of $\sim 3$ allows LISA to contribute nearly double the number of multiband sources. Even if LISA only observes for one year, most of the multiband detector-frame chirp mass's 90\% credible interval (less than $10^{-4} \mathrm{M}_\odot$) is still better than that of the most accurately measured events for ET+2CE network in 7.5 years of observation, by at least one order of magnitude. For the first time, we show efficient multiband Bayesian parameter estimation results on the population scale, which paves the way for large-scale astrophysical tests using multibanding.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Fast detection and reconstruction of merging Massive Black Hole Binary signals

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will detect gravitational waves from the population of merging massive black holes binaries (MBHBs) throughout the Universe. The LISA data stream will feature many superposed signals from different astrophysical sources, requiring a global fit procedure. Most of the MBHB signals will be loud enough to be detected days or even weeks before the merger; and for those sources LISA will be able to predict the time of the merger well in advance of the coalescence, as well as an approximate position in the sky. In this paper, we present a fast detection and signal reconstruction scheme for massive black hole binaries in the LISA observation band. We propose: (i) a detection scheme for MBHB mergers allowing a first subtraction of these signals for the purpose of a global fit, and (ii) an efficient early detection scheme providing a time-of-merger estimate for a pre-merger signal, that will allow to trigger a protection period, placing LISA in ``do not disturb'' mode and enabling more detailed analysis that will facilitate multi-messenger observations. We highlight the effect of confusion of several overlapping in time MBHB signals in the pre-merger detection.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Modular global-fit pipeline for LISA data analysis

We anticipate that the data acquired by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be dominated by the gravitational wave signals from several astrophysical populations. The analysis of these data is a new challenge and is the main focus of this paper. Numerous gravitational wave signals overlap in the time and/or frequency domain, and the possible correlation between them has to be taken into account during their detection and characterization. In this work, we present a method to address the LISA data analysis challenge; it is flexible and scalable for a number of sources and across several populations. Its performance is demonstrated on the simulated data LDC2a.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

GPU-accelerated LISA parameter estimation with full time domain response

We conduct the first full Bayesian inference analysis for LISA parameter estimation incorporating the effects of subdominant harmonics and spin-precession through a full time domain response. The substantial computational demands of using time domain waveforms for LISA are significantly mitigated by implementing a novel Python version of the IMRPhenomT family of waveform models and the LISA response with GPU acceleration. This time domain response alleviates the theoretical necessity of developing specific transfer functions to approximate the LISA response in the Fourier domain for each specific type of system and allows for the use of unequal arms configurations and realistic LISA orbits. Our analysis includes a series of zero-noise injections for a Massive Black Hole Binary with aligned and precessing spins. We investigate the impact of including subdominant harmonics, compare equal and unequal arm configurations, and analyze different Time-Delay-Interferometry (TDI) configurations. We utilize full and uniform priors, with a lower frequency cutoff of 0.1mHz, and a signal duration of approximately two months, sampled every 5 seconds. The sampler is initialized based on Fisher estimates. Our results demonstrate LISA capability to measure the two spin magnitudes and the primary spin tilt angle, alongside sky localization, with percent-level precision, while component masses are determined with sub-percent accuracy.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Practical approaches to analyzing PTA data: Cosmic strings with six pulsars

We search for a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) generated by a network of cosmic strings using six millisecond pulsars from Data Release 2 (DR2) of the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA). We perform a Bayesian analysis considering two models for the network of cosmic string loops, and compare it to a simple power-law model which is expected from the population of supermassive black hole binaries. Our main strong assumption is that the previously reported common red noise process is a SGWB. We find that the one-parameter cosmic string model is slightly favored over a power-law model thanks to its simplicity. If we assume a two-component stochastic signal in the data (supermassive black hole binary population and the signal from cosmic strings), we get a $95\%$ upper limit on the string tension of $\log_{10}(Gμ) < -9.9$ ($-10.5$) for the two cosmic string models we consider. In extended two-parameter string models, we were unable to constrain the number of kinks. We test two approximate and fast Bayesian data analysis methods against the most rigorous analysis and find consistent results. These two fast and efficient methods are applicable to all SGWBs, independent of their source, and will be crucial for analysis of extended data sets.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Forecasting the sensitivity of Pulsar Timing Arrays to gravitational wave backgrounds

Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) observations hinted towards the existence of a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) in the nHz frequency band. Still, the nature of the SGWB signal cannot be confidently inferred from current data, and the leading explanation invokes mergers of supermassive black holes. If confirmed, such discovery would not only represent a turning point in our understanding of astrophysics, but it may severely limit the capability of searching for additional cosmological sources in the nHz frequency range. In this work, we build a simple framework to forecast the sensitivity of future PTA configurations and assess the parameter estimation of SGWB, which could consist of several contributions. We release the python code fastPTA implementing this framework and ready to use.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Neural density estimation for Galactic Binaries in LISA data analysis

The future space based gravitational wave detector LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna) will observe millions of Galactic binaries constantly present in the data stream. A small fraction of this population (of the order of several thousand) will be individually resolved. One of the challenging tasks from the data analysis point of view will be to estimate the parameters of resolvable galactic binaries while disentangling them from each other and from other gravitational wave sources present in the data. This problem is quite often referred to as a global fit in the field of LISA data analysis. A Bayesian framework is often used to infer the parameters of the sources and their number. The efficiency of the sampling techniques strongly depends on the proposals, especially in the multi-dimensional parameter space. In this paper we demonstrate how we can use neural density estimators, and in particular Normalising flows, in order to build proposals which significantly improve the convergence of sampling. We also demonstrate how these methods could help in building priors based on physical models and provide an alternative way to represent the catalogue of identified gravitational wave sources.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

LISA Definition Study Report

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is the first scientific endeavour to detect and study gravitational waves from space. LISA will survey the sky for Gravitational Waves in the 0.1 mHz to 1 Hz frequency band which will enable the study of a vast number of objects ranging from Galactic binaries and stellar mass black holes in the Milky Way, to distant massive black-hole mergers and the expansion of the Universe. This definition study report, or Red Book, presents a summary of the very large body of work that has been undertaken on the LISA mission over the LISA definition phase.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

LISA Galactic binaries with astrometry from Gaia DR3

Galactic compact binaries with orbital periods shorter than a few hours emit detectable gravitational waves at low frequencies. Their gravitational wave signals can be detected with the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Crucially, they may be useful in the early months of the mission operation in helping to validate LISA's performance in comparison to pre-launch expectations. We present an updated list of 55 candidate LISA binaries with measured properties, for which we derive distances based on Gaia Data release 3 astrometry. Based on the known properties from electromagnetic observations, we predict the LISA detectability after 1, 3, 6, and 48 months with state-of-the-art Bayesian analysis methods. We distinguish between verification and detectable binaries as being detectable after 3 and 48 months respectively. We find 18 verification binaries and 22 detectable sources, which triples the number of known LISA binaries over the last few years. These include detached double white dwarfs, AM CVn binaries, one ultracompact X-ray binary and two hot subdwarf binaries. We find that across this sample the gravitational wave amplitude is expected to be measured to $\approx10\%$ on average, while the inclination is expected to be determined with $\approx15^\circ$ precision. For detectable binaries these average errors increase to $\approx50\%$ and to $\approx40^\circ$ respectively.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Cosmic string bursts in LISA

Cosmic string cusps are sources of short-lived, linearly polarised gravitational wave bursts which can be searched for in gravitational wave detectors. We assess the capability of LISA to detect these bursts using the latest LISA configuration and operational assumptions. For such short bursts, we verify that LISA can be considered as ``frozen", namely that one can neglect LISA's orbital motion. We consider two models for the network of cosmic string loops, and estimate that LISA should be able to detect 4-30 bursts per year assuming a string tension $Gμ\approx 10^{-10.6} - 10^{-10.1}$ and detection threshold $\rm{SNR} \ge 20$. Non-detection of these bursts would constrain the string tension to $Gμ\lesssim 10^{-11}$ for both models.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

Probing Accretion Physics with Gravitational Waves

Gravitational-wave observations of extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs) offer the opportunity to probe the environments of active galactic nuclei (AGN) through the torques that accretion disks induce on the binary. Within a Bayesian framework, we study how well such environmental effects can be measured using gravitational wave observations from the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). We focus on the torque induced by planetary-type migration on quasicircular inspirals, and use different prescriptions for geometrically thin and radiatively efficient disks. We find that LISA could detect migration for a wide range of disk viscosities and accretion rates, for both $α$ and $β$ disk prescriptions. For a typical EMRI with masses $50M_\odot+10^6M_\odot$, we find that LISA could distinguish between migration in $α$ and $β$ disks and measure the torque amplitude with $\sim 20\%$ relative precision. Provided an accurate torque model, we also show how to turn gravitational-wave measurements of the torque into constraints on the disk properties. Furthermore, we show that, if an electromagnetic counterpart is identified, the multimessenger observations of the AGN EMRI system will yield direct measurements of the disk viscosity. Finally, we investigate the impact of neglecting environmental effects in the analysis of the gravitational-wave signal, finding 3$σ$ biases in the primary mass and spin, and showing that ignoring such effects can lead to false detection of a deviation from general relativity. This work demonstrates the scientific potential of gravitational observations as probes of accretion-disk physics, accessible so far through electromagnetic observations only.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

Stochastic gravitational wave background from stellar origin binary black holes in LISA

We use the latest constraints on the population of stellar origin binary black holes (SOBBH) from LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA (LVK) observations, to estimate the stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) they generate in the frequency band of LISA. We account for the faint and distant binaries, which contribute the most to the SGWB, by extending the merger rate at high redshift assuming it tracks the star formation rate. We adopt different methods to compute the SGWB signal: an analytical evaluation, Monte Carlo sums over SOBBH population realisations, and a method that accounts for the role of the detector by simulating LISA data and iteratively removing resolvable signals until only the confusion noise is left, allowing for the extraction of both the expected SGWB and the number of resolvable SOBBHs. Since the latter are few for SNR thresholds larger than five, we confirm that the spectral shape of the SGWB in the LISA band follows the analytical prediction of a power law. We infer the probability distribution of the SGWB amplitude from the LVK GWTC-3 posterior of the binary population model; its interquartile range of $h^2Ω_\mathrm{GW}(f=3\times10^{-3}\,\mathrm{Hz}) \in [5.65,\,11.5]\times10^{-13}$ is in agreement with most previous estimates. We perform a MC analysis to assess LISA's capability to detect and characterise this signal. Accounting for both the instrumental noise and the galactic binaries foreground, with four years of data, LISA will be able to detect the SOBBH SGWB with percent accuracy, narrowing down the uncertainty on the amplitude by one order of magnitude with respect to the range of possible amplitudes inferred from the population model. A measurement of this signal by LISA will help to break the degeneracy among some of the population parameters, and provide interesting constraints, in particular on the redshift evolution of the SOBBH merger rate.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Computation of stochastic background from extreme mass ratio inspiral populations for LISA

Extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs) are among the primary targets for the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). The extreme mass ratios of these systems result in relatively weak GW signals, that can be individually resolved only for cosmologically nearby sources (up to $z\approx2$). The incoherent piling up of the signal emitted by unresolved EMRIs generate a confusion noise, that can be formally treated as a stochastic GW background (GWB). In this paper, we estimate the level of this background considering a collection of astrophysically motivated EMRI models, spanning the range of uncertainties affecting EMRI formation. To this end, we employed the innovative Augmented Analytic Kludge waveforms and used the full LISA response function. For each model, we compute the GWB SNR and the number of resolvable sources. Compared to simplified computations of the EMRI signals from the literature, we find that for a given model the GWB SNR is lower by a factor of $\approx 2$ whereas the number of resolvable sources drops by a factor 3-to-5. Nonetheless, the vast majority of the models result in potentially detectable GWB which can also significantly contribute to the overall LISA noise budget in the 1-10 mHz frequency range.

astro-ph.GA↗