arXiv subjects

Stefaan Poedts

Publications and source records attributed to Stefaan Poedts.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Domain of Influence analysis: implications for Data Assimilation in space weather forecasting

Solar activity, ranging from the background solar wind to energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is the main driver of the conditions in the interplanetary space and in the terrestrial space environment, known as space weather. A better understanding of the Sun-Earth connection carries enormous potential to mitigate negative space weather effects with economic and social benefits. Effective space weather forecasting relies on data and models. In this paper, we discuss some of the most used space weather models, and propose suitable locations for data gathering with space weather purposes. We report on the application of \textit{Representer analysis (RA)} and \textit{Domain of Influence (DOI) analysis} to three models simulating different stages of the Sun-Earth connection: the OpenGGCM and Tsyganenko models, focusing on solar wind - magnetosphere interaction, and the PLUTO model, used to simulate CME propagation in interplanetary space. Our analysis is promising for space weather purposes for several reasons. First, we obtain quantitative information about the most useful locations of observation points, such as solar wind monitors. For example, we find that the absolute values of the DOI are extremely low in the magnetospheric plasma sheet. Since knowledge of that particular sub-system is crucial for space weather, enhanced monitoring of the region would be most beneficial. Second, we are able to better characterize the models. Although the current analysis focuses on spatial rather than temporal correlations, we find that time-independent models are less useful for Data Assimilation activities than time-dependent models. Third, we take the first steps towards the ambitious goal of identifying the most relevant heliospheric parameters for modelling CME propagation in the heliosphere, their arrival time, and their geoeffectiveness at Earth.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2020

On the Dependency between the Peak Velocity of High-speed Solar Wind Streams near Earth and the Area of Their Solar Source Coronal Holes

The relationship between the peak velocities of high-speed solar wind streams near Earth and the areas of their solar source regions, i.e., coronal holes, has been known since the 1970s, but it is still physically not well understood. We perform 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations using the European Heliospheric Forecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) code to show that this empirical relationship forms during the propagation phase of high-speed streams from the Sun to Earth. For this purpose, we neglect the acceleration phase of high-speed streams, and project the areas of coronal holes to a sphere at 0.1 au. We then vary only the areas and latitudes of the coronal holes. The velocity, temperature, and density in the cross section of the corresponding highspeed streams at 0.1 au are set to constant, homogeneous values. Finally, we propagate the associated high-speed streams through the inner heliosphere using the EUHFORIA code. The simulated high-speed stream peak velocities at Earth reveal a linear dependence on the area of their source coronal holes. The slopes of the relationship decrease with increasing latitudes of the coronal holes, and the peak velocities saturate at a value of about 730 km/s, similar to the observations. These findings imply that the empirical relationship between the coronal hole areas and high-speed stream peak velocities does not describe the acceleration phase of high-speed streams, but is a result of the high-speed stream propagation from the Sun to Earth.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Using radio triangulation to understand the origin of two subsequent type II radio bursts

Context: Eruptive events such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares accelerate particles and generate shock waves which can arrive at Earth and can disturb the magnetosphere. Understanding the association between CMEs and CME-driven shocks is therefore highly important for space weather studies. Aims: We present a study of the CME/flare event associated with two type II bursts observed on September 27, 2012. The aim of the study is to understand the relationship between the observed CME and the two distinct shock wave signatures. Methods: The multi-wavelength study of the eruptive event (CME/flare) was complemented with radio triangulation of the associated radio emission and modelling of the CME and the shock wave employing MHD simulations. Results: We found that, although temporal association between the type II bursts and the CME is good, the low-frequency type II(LF-type II) burst occurs significantly higher in the corona than the CME and its relationship to the CME is not straightforward. The analysis of the EIT wave (coronal bright front) shows the fastest wave component to be in the southeast quadrant of the Sun. This is also the quadrant in which the source positions of the LF-type II were found to be located, probably resulting from the interaction between the shock wave and a streamer. Conclusions: The relationship between the CME/flare event and the shock wave signatures is discussed using the temporal association,as well as the spatial information of the radio emission. Further, we discuss the importance and possible effects of the frequently non-radial propagation of the shock wave.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

A new class of discontinuous solar wind solutions

A new class of one-dimensional solar wind models is developed within the general polytropic, single-fluid hydrodynamic framework. The particular case of quasi-adiabatic radial expansion with a localized heating source is considered. We consider analytical solutions with continuous Mach number over the entire radial domain while allowing for jumps in the flow velocity, density, and temperature, provided that there exists an external source of energy in the vicinity of the critical point which supports such jumps in physical quantities. This is substantially distinct from both the standard Parker solar wind model and the original nozzle solutions, where such discontinuous solutions are not permissible. We obtain novel sample analytic solutions of the governing equations corresponding to both slow and fast wind.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

The effect of drifts on the decay phase of SEP events

We study the effect of the magnetic gradient and curvature drifts on the pitch-angle dependent transport of solar energetic particles (SEPs), focusing on 3 - 36 MeV protons. By considering observers located at various positions in the heliosphere, we investigate how drifts may alter the measured intensity-time profiles and energy spectra. We focus on the decay phase of solar energetic proton events during which a temporal invariant spectrum and disappearing spatial intensity gradients are often observed; a phenomenon known as the 'reservoir effect' or the 'SEP flood'. We study the effects of drifts by solving the focused transport equation for nominal Parker solar wind configurations and for a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) generated solar wind containing a corotating interaction region (CIR). The latter configuration contains a magnetic bottle structure, with one bottleneck at the Sun and the other at the CIR. It is illustrated that observers magnetically connected close to the edges of the particle injection site can experience, as a result of drifts, a sudden drop in the intensities occurring at different times for different energies such that no SEP flood phenomenon is established. In the magnetic bottle, this effect is enhanced due to the presence of magnetic field gradients strengthening the nominal particle drifts. We also show that interplanetary cross-field diffusion may mitigate these effects of drifts. We conclude that particle drifts can in some cases substantially modify the decay phase of SEP events, especially if the solar wind contains compression regions or shock waves where the drifts are enhanced. This is, for example, the case for our CIR solar wind configuration generated with a 3D MHD model, where the effect of drifts is strong. A similar decay rate in different energy channels and for different observers requires thus the mitigation of the effect of drifts.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

CME-CME Interactions as Sources of CME Geo-effectiveness: The Formation of the Complex Ejecta and Intense Geomagnetic Storm in Early September 2017

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the primary sources of intense disturbances at Earth, where their geo-effectiveness is largely determined by their dynamic pressure and internal magnetic field, which can be significantly altered during interactions with other CMEs in interplanetary space. We analyse three successive CMEs that erupted from the Sun during September 4-6, 2017, investigating the role of CME-CME interactions as source of the associated intense geomagnetic storm (Dst_min=-142 nT on September 7). To quantify the impact of interactions on the (geo-)effectiveness of individual CMEs, we perform global heliospheric simulations with the EUHFORIA model, using observation-based initial parameters with the additional purpose of validating the predictive capabilities of the model for complex CME events. The simulations show that around 0.45 AU, the shock driven by the September 6 CME started compressing a preceding magnetic ejecta formed by the merging of two CMEs launched on September 4, significantly amplifying its Bz until a maximum factor of 2.8 around 0.9 AU. The following gradual conversion of magnetic energy into kinetic and thermal components reduced the Bz amplification until its almost complete disappearance around 1.8 AU. We conclude that a key factor at the origin of the intense storm triggered by the September 4-6, 2017 CMEs was their arrival at Earth during the phase of maximum Bz amplification. Our analysis highlights how the amplification of the magnetic field of individual CMEs in space-time due to interaction processes can be characterised by a growth, a maximum, and a decay phase, suggesting that the time interval between the CME eruptions and their relative speeds are critical factors in determining the resulting impact of complex CMEs at various heliocentric distances (helio-effectiveness).

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Evolution of CME Properties in the Inner Heliosphere: Prediction for Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe

The evolution of the magnetic field and plasma quantities inside a coronal mass ejection (CME) with distance are known from statistical studies using data from 1 au monitors, planetary missions, Helios, and Ulysses. This does not cover the innermost heliosphere, below 0.29 au, where no data are yet publicly available. Here, we describe the evolution of the properties of simulated CMEs in the inner heliosphere using two different initiation mechanisms. We compare the radial evolution of these properties with that found from statistical studies based on observations in the inner heliosphere by Helios and MESSENGER. We find that the evolution of the radial size and magnetic field strength is nearly indistinguishable for twisted flux rope from that of writhed CMEs. The evolution of these properties is also consistent with past studies, primarily with recent statistical studies using in situ measurements and with studies using remote observations of CMEs.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

A Case for Electron-Astrophysics

A grand-challenge problem at the forefront of physics is to understand how energy is transported and transformed in plasmas. This fundamental research priority encapsulates the conversion of plasma-flow and electromagnetic energies into particle energy, either as heat or some other form of energisation. The smallest characteristic scales, at which electron dynamics determines the plasma behaviour, are the next frontier in space and astrophysical plasma research. The analysis of astrophysical processes at these scales lies at the heart of the field of electron-astrophysics. Electron scales are the ultimate bottleneck for dissipation of plasma turbulence, which is a fundamental process not understood in the electron-kinetic regime. Since electrons are the most numerous and most mobile plasma species in fully ionised plasmas and are strongly guided by the magnetic field, their thermal properties couple very efficiently to global plasma dynamics and thermodynamics.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

Spreading protons in the heliosphere: a note on cross-field diffusion effects

We study how a high-speed solar wind stream embedded in a slow solar wind affects the transport and energy changes of solar energetic protons in interplanetary space, assuming different levels of cross-field diffusion. This is done using a particle transport model that computes directional particle intensities and first order parallel anisotropies in a background solar wind generated by the magnetohydrodynamic model EUHFORIA. In particular, we consider a mono-energetic 4 MeV proton injection over an extended region located at a heliographic radial distance of 0.1 AU. By using different values for the perpendicular proton mean free path, we study how cross-field diffusion may affect the energetic particle spread and intensity profiles near a high-speed solar wind stream and a corotating interaction region (CIR). We find that both a strong cross-field diffusion and a solar wind rarefaction region are capable of dispersing SEPs efficiently, producing overall low particle intensities which can in some cases prevent the SEPs from being detected in-situ, since their intensity may drop below the detected pre-event intensity levels. We also discuss how accelerated particle populations form on the reverse and forward shock waves, separated by the stream interface inside the CIR. Under strong levels of cross-field diffusion, particles cross the SI and hence both accelerated particle populations merge together.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

Reconstructing coronal hole areas with EUHFORIA and adapted WSA model: optimising the model parameters

The adopted WSA model embedded in EUHFORIA (EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset) is compared to EUV observations. According to the standard paradigm coronal holes are sources of open flux thus we use remote sensing EUV observations and \textsc{catch} (Collection of Analysis Tools for Coronal Holes) to extract CH areas and compare them to the open flux areas modelled by EUHFORIA. From the adopted WSA model we employ only the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model for the inner corona and the Schatten Current Sheet (SCS) model for the outer (PFSS+SCS). The height, $R_{\rm ss}$, of the outer boundary of the PFSS, known as the source surface, and the height, $R_{\rm i}$, of the inner boundary of the SCS are important parameters affecting the modelled CH areas. We investigate the impact the two model parameters can have in the modelled results. We vary $R_{\rm ss}$ within the interval [1.4, 3.2]$R_{\rm \odot}$ with a step of 0.1$R_{\rm \odot}$, and $R_{\rm i}$ within the interval [1.3, 2.8]$R_{\rm \odot}$ with the same step, and the condition that $R_{\rm i}<R_{\rm ss}$. This way we have a set of 184 initial parameters to the model and we assess the model results for all these possible height pairs. We conclude that the default heights used so far fail in modelling accurately CH areas and lower heights need to be considered.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Multipoint study of successive coronal mass ejections driving moderate disturbances at 1 AU

We analyse in this work the propagation and geoeffectiveness of four successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that erupted from the Sun during 21--23 May 2013 and that were detected in interplanetary space by the Wind and/or STEREO-A spacecraft. All these CMEs featured critical aspects for understanding so-called "problem space weather storms" at Earth. In the first three events a limb CMEs resulted in moderately geoeffective in-situ structures at their target location in terms of the disturbance storm time (Dst) index (either measured or estimated). The fourth CME, which also caused a moderate geomagnetic response, erupted from close to the disc centre as seen from Earth, but it was not visible in coronagraph images from the spacecraft along the Sun--Earth line and appeared narrow and faint from off-angle viewpoints. Making the correct connection between CMEs at the Sun and their in-situ counterparts is often difficult for problem storms. We investigate these four CMEs using multiwavelength and multipoint remote-sensing observations (extreme ultraviolet, white light, and radio), aided by 3D heliospheric modelling, in order to follow their propagation in the corona and in interplanetary space and to assess their impact at 1 AU. Finally, we emphasise the difficulties in forecasting moderate space weather effects provoked by problematic and ambiguous events and the importance of multispacecraft data for observing and modelling problem storms.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Observation-based modelling of magnetised Coronal Mass Ejections with EUHFORIA

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the primary source of strong space weather disturbances at Earth. Their geoeffectiveness is largely determined by their dynamic pressure and internal magnetic fields, for which reliable predictions at Earth are not possible with traditional cone CME models. We study two Earth-directed CMEs using the EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) model, testing the predictive capabilities of a linear force-free spheromak CME model initialised using parameters derived from remote-sensing observations. Using observation-based CME input parameters, we perform MHD simulations of the events with the cone and spheromak CME models. Results show that spheromak CMEs propagate faster than cone CMEs when initialised with the same kinematic parameters. We interpret these differences as due to different Lorentz forces acting within cone and spheromak CMEs, leading to different CME expansions. Such discrepancies can be mitigated by initialising spheromak CMEs with a reduced speed corresponding to the radial speed only. Results at Earth evidence that the spheromak model improves the predictions of B(Bz) up to 12-60(22-40) percentage points compared to a cone model. Considering virtual spacecraft located around Earth, B(Bz) predictions reach 45-70%(58-78%) of the observed peak values. The spheromak model predicts inaccurate magnetic field parameters at Earth for CMEs propagating away from the Sun-Earth line, while it successfully predicts the CME properties and arrival time in the case of strictly Earth-directed events. Modelling CMEs propagating away from the Sun-Earth line requires extra care due to limitations related to the assumed spherical shape. The spatial variability of modelling results and the typical uncertainties in the reconstructed CME direction advocate the need to consider predictions at Earth and at virtual spacecraft around it.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Interplanetary spread of solar energetic protons near a high-speed solar wind stream

We study how a high-speed solar wind stream embedded in a slow solar wind influences the spread of solar energetic protons in interplanetary space. To model the energetic protons, we used a recently developed particle transport code that computes particle distributions in the heliosphere by solving the focused transport equation in a stochastic manner. The particles are propagated in a solar wind containing a CIR, which was generated by the heliospheric magnetohydrodynamic model, EUHFORIA. We study four cases in which we assume a delta injection of 4 MeV protons spread uniformly over different regions at the inner boundary of the model. These source regions have the same size and shape, yet are shifted in longitude from each other, and are therefore magnetically connected to different solar wind conditions. The intensity and anisotropy profiles along selected IMF lines vary strongly according to the different solar wind conditions encountered along the field line. The IMF lines crossing the shocks bounding the CIR show the formation of accelerated particle populations, with the reverse shock wave being a more efficient accelerator than the forward shock wave. Moreover, we demonstrate that the longitudinal width of the particle intensity distribution can increase, decrease, or remain constant with heliographic radial distance, reflecting the underlying IMF structure. Finally, we show how the deflection of the IMF at the shock waves and the compression of the IMF in the CIR deforms the three-dimensional shape of the particle distribution in such a way that the original shape of the injection profile is lost.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2018

A GPU-enabled implicit Finite Volume solver for the ideal two-fluid plasma model on unstructured grids

This paper describes the main features of a pioneering unsteady solver for simulating ideal two-fluid plasmas on unstructured grids, taking profit of GPGPU (General-purpose computing on graphics processing units). The code, which has been implemented within the open source COOLFluiD platform, is implicit, second-order in time and space, relying upon a Finite Volume method for the spatial discretization and a three-point backward Euler for the time integration. In particular, the convective fluxes are computed by a multi-fluid version of the AUSM+up scheme for the plasma equations, in combination with a modified Rusanov scheme with tunable dissipation for the Maxwell equations. Source terms are integrated with a one-point rule, using the cell-centered value. Some critical aspects of the porting to GPU's are discussed, as well as the performance of two open source linear system solvers (i.e. PETSc, PARALUTION). The code design allows for computing both flux and source terms on the GPU along with their Jacobian, giving a noticeable decrease in the computational time in comparison with the original CPU-based solver. The code has been tested in a wide range of mesh sizes and in three different systems, each one with a different GPU. The increased performance (up to 14x) is demonstrated in two representative 2D benchmarks: propagation of circularly polarized waves and the more challenging Geospace Environmental Modeling (GEM) magnetic reconnection challenge.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2018

Association between Tornadoes and Instability of Hosting Prominence

We studied the dynamics of all prominence tornadoes detected by the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly from 2011 January 01 to December 31. In total, 361 events were identified during the whole year, but only 166 tornadoes were traced until the end of their lifetime. Out of 166 tornadoes, 80 (48%) triggered CMEs in hosting prominences, 83 (50%) caused failed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) or strong internal motion in the prominences, and only 3 (2%) finished their lifetimes without any observed activity. Therefore, almost all prominence tornadoes lead to the destabilization of their hosting prominences and half of them trigger CMEs. Consequently, prominence tornadoes may be used as precursors for CMEs and hence for space weather predictions.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Slurm: fluid particle-in-cell code for plasma modeling

With the approach of exascale computing era, particle-based models are becoming the focus of research due to their excellent scalability. We present a new code, Slurm, which implements the classic particle-in-cell algorithm for modeling magnetized fluids and plasmas. It features particle volume evolution which damps the numerical finite grid instability, and allows modeling of key physical instabilities such as Kelvin-Helmholtz and Rayleigh-Taylor. The magnetic field in Slurm is handled via the electromagnetic vector potential carried by particles. Numerical diffusion of the magnetic flux is extremely low, and the solenoidality of the magnetic field is preserved to machine precision. A double-linked list is used to carry particles, thus implementation of open boundary conditions is simple and efficient. The code is written in C++ with OpenMP multi-threading, and has no external dependencies except for Boost. It is easy to install and use on multi-core desktop computers as well as on large shared-memory machines. Slurm is an ideal tool for its primary goal, modeling of space weather events in the heliosphere. This article walks the reader through the physical model, the algorithm, and all important details of implementation. Ideally, after finishing this paper, the reader should be able to either use Slurm for solving the desired problem, or create a new fluid PIC code.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2018

Evidence for precursors of the coronal hole jets in solar bright points

A set of 23 observations of coronal jet events that occurred in coronal bright points has been analyzed. The focus was on the temporal evolution of the mean brightness before and during coronal jet events. In the absolute majority of the cases either single or recurrent coronal jets were preceded by slight precursor disturbances observed in the mean intensity curves. The key conclusion is that we were able to detect quasi-periodical oscillations with characteristic periods from sub-minute up to 3-4 min values in the bright point brightness which precede the jets. Our basic claim is that along with the conventionally accepted scenario of bright point evolution through new magnetic flux emergence and its reconnection with the initial structure of the bright point and the coronal hole, certain MHD oscillatory and wave-like motions can be excited and these can take an important place in the observed dynamics. These quasi-oscillatory phenomena might play the role of links between different epochs of the coronal jet ignition and evolution. They can be an indication of the MHD wave excitation processes due to the system entropy variations, density variations or shear flows. It is very likely a sharp outflow velocity transverse gradients at the edges between the open and closed field line regions. We suppose that magnetic reconnections can be the source of MHD waves due to impulsive generation or rapid temperature variations, and shear flow driven nonmodel MHD wave evolution (self-heating and/or overreflection mechanisms).

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

Halo Coronal Mass Ejections during Solar Cycle 24: reconstruction of the global scenario and geoeffectiveness

In this study we present a statistical analysis of 53 fast Earth-directed halo CMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO instrument during the period Jan. 2009-Sep. 2015, and we use this CME sample to test the capabilities of a Sun-to-Earth prediction scheme for CME geoeffectiveness. First, we investigate the CME association with other solar activity features by means of multi-instrument observations of the solar magnetic and plasma properties. Second, using coronagraphic images to derive the CME kinematical properties at 0.1 AU, we propagate the events to 1 AU by means of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model. Simulation results at Earth are compared with in-situ observations at L1. By applying the pressure balance condition at the magnetopause and a solar wind-Kp index coupling function, we estimate the expected magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic activity level, and compare them with global data records. The analysis indicates that 82% of the CMEs arrived at Earth in the next 4 days. Almost the totality of them compressed the magnetopause below geosynchronous orbits and triggered a geomagnetic storm. Complex sunspot-rich active regions associated with energetic flares result the most favourable configurations from which geoeffective CMEs originate. The analysis of related SEP events shows that 74% of the CMEs associated with major SEPs were geoeffective. Moreover, the SEP production is enhanced in the case of fast and interacting CMEs. In this work we present a first attempt at applying a Sun-to-Earth geoeffectiveness prediction scheme - based on 3D simulations and solar wind-geomagnetic activity coupling functions - to a statistical set of potentially geoeffective halo CMEs. The results of the prediction scheme are in good agreement with geomagnetic activity data records, although further studies performing a fine-tuning of such scheme are needed.

astro-ph.SR↗