arXiv subjects

Stefaan Poedts

Publications and source records attributed to Stefaan Poedts.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Influence of coronal hole morphology on the solar wind speed at Earth

It has long been known that the high-speed stream (HSS) peak velocity at Earth directly depends on the area of the coronal hole (CH) on the Sun. Different degrees of association between the two parameters have been shown by many authors. In this study, we revisit this association in greater detail for a sample of 45 nonpolar CHs during the minimum phase of solar cycle 24. The aim is to understand how CHs of different properties influence the HSS peak speeds observed at Earth and draw from this to improve solar wind modeling. The characteristics of the CHs of our sample were extracted based on the Collection of Analysis Tools for Coronal Holes (CATCH) which employs an intensity threshold technique applied to extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) filtergrams. We first examined all the correlations between the geometric characteristics of the CHs and the HSS peak speed and duration at Earth, for the entire sample. The CHs were then categorized in different groups based on morphological criteria, such as the aspect ratio, the orientation angle and the geometric complexity, a parameter which is often neglected when the formation of the fast solar wind at Earth is studied. Our results, confirmed also by the bootstrapping technique, show that all three aforementioned morphological criteria play a major role in determining the HSS peak speed at 1 AU. Therefore, they need to be taken into consideration for empirical models that aim to forecast the fast solar wind at Earth based on the observed CH solar sources.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

How the area of solar coronal holes affects the properties of high-speed solar wind streams near Earth -- An analytical model

We derive a simple analytical model for the propagation of HSSs from the Sun to Earth and thereby show how the area of coronal holes and the size of their boundary regions affect the HSS velocity, temperature, and density near Earth. We presume that velocity, temperature, and density profiles form across the HSS cross section close to the Sun and that these spatial profiles translate into corresponding temporal profiles in a given radial direction due to the solar rotation. These temporal distributions drive the stream interface to the preceding slow solar wind plasma and disperse with distance from the Sun. The HSS properties at 1 AU are then given by all HSS plasma parcels launched from the Sun that did not run into the stream interface at Earth distance. We show that the velocity plateau region of HSSs as seen at 1 AU, if apparent, originates from the center region of the HSS close to the Sun, whereas the velocity tail at 1 AU originates from the trailing boundary region. The peak velocity of HSSs at Earth further depends on the longitudinal width of the HSS close to the Sun. The temperature and density of HSS plasma parcels at Earth depend on their radial expansion from the Sun to Earth. The radial expansion is determined by the velocity gradient across the HSS boundary region close to the Sun and gives the velocity-temperature and density-temperature relationships at Earth their specific shape. When considering a large number of HSSs, the presumed correlation between the HSS velocities and temperatures close to the Sun degrades only slightly up to 1 AU, but the correlation between the velocities and densities is strongly disrupted up to 1 AU due to the radial expansion. Finally, we show how the number of particles of the piled-up slow solar wind in the stream interaction region depends on the velocities and densities of the HSS and preceding slow solar wind plasma.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Interaction of coronal mass ejections and the solar wind. A force analysis

Aims. Our goal is to thoroughly analyse the dynamics of single and multiple solar eruptions, as well as a stealth ejecta. The data were obtained through self-consistent numerical simulations performed in a previous study. We also assess the effect of a different background solar wind on the propagation of these ejecta to Earth. Methods. We calculated all the components of the forces contributing to the evolution of the numerically modelled consecutive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) obtained with the 2.5D magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) module of the code MPI-AMRVAC. We analysed the thermal and magnetic pressure gradients and the magnetic tension dictating the formation of several flux ropes in different locations in the aftermath of the eruptions. These three components were tracked in the equatorial plane during the propagation of the CMEs to Earth. Their interaction with other CMEs and with the background solar wind was also studied. Results. We explain the formation of the stealth ejecta and the plasma blobs (or plasmoids) occurring in the aftermath of solar eruptions. We also address the faster eruption of a CME in one case with a different background wind, even when the same triggering boundary motions were applied, and attribute this to the slightly different magnetic configuration and the large neighbouring arcade. The thermal pressure gradient revealed a shock in front of these slow eruptions, formed during their propagation to 1 AU. The double-peaked magnetic pressure gradient indicates that the triggering method affects the structure of the CMEs and that a part of the adjacent streamer is ejected along with the CME.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Effects of Mesh Topology on MHD Solution Features in Coronal Simulations

Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the solar corona have become more popular with the increased availability of computational power. Modern computational plasma codes, relying upon Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods, allow for resolving the coronal features using solar surface magnetograms as inputs. These computations are carried out in a full 3D domain and thus selection of the right mesh configuration is essential to save computational resources and enable/speed up convergence. In addition, it has been observed that for MHD simulations close to the hydrostatic equilibrium, spurious numerical artefacts might appear in the solution following the mesh structure, which makes the selection of the grid also a concern for accuracy. The purpose of this paper is to discuss and trade off two main mesh topologies when applied to global solar corona simulations using the unstructured ideal MHD solver from the COOLFluiD platform. The first topology is based on the geodesic polyhedron and the second on UV mapping. Focus will be placed on aspects such as mesh adaptability, resolution distribution, resulting spurious numerical fluxes and convergence performance. For this purpose, firstly a rotating dipole case is investigated, followed by two simulations using real magnetograms from the solar minima (1995) and solar maxima (1999). It is concluded that the most appropriate mesh topology for the simulation depends on several factors, such as the accuracy requirements, the presence of features near the polar regions and/or strong features in the flow field in general. If convergence is of concern and the simulation contains strong dynamics, then grids which are based on the geodesic polyhedron are recommended compared to more conventionally used UV-mapped meshes.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

The Dynamic Time Warping as a Means to Assess Solar Wind Time Series

During the last decades, international attempts have been made to develop realistic space weather prediction tools aiming to forecast the conditions on the Sun and in the interplanetary environment. These efforts have led to the development of appropriate metrics in order to assess the performance of those tools. Metrics are necessary to validate models, compare different models and monitor improvements of a certain model over time. In this work, we introduce the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) as an alternative way to evaluate the performance of models and, in particular, to quantify differences between observed and modeled solar wind time series. We present the advantages and drawbacks of this method as well as applications to WIND observations and EUHFORIA predictions at Earth. We show that DTW can warp sequences in time, aiming to align them with the minimum cost by using dynamic programming. It can be applied in two ways for the evaluation of modeled solar wind time series. The first, calculates the sequence similarity factor (SSF), a number that provides a quantification of how good the forecast is, compared to an ideal and a non-ideal prediction scenarios. The second way quantifies the time and amplitude differences between the points that are best matched between the two sequences. As a result, DTW can serve as a hybrid metric between continuous measurements (e.g., the correlation coefficient), and point-by-point comparisons. It is a promising technique for the assessment of solar wind profiles providing at once the most complete evaluation portrait of a model.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Observation-based modelling of the energetic storm particle event of 14 July 2012

We model the energetic storm particle (ESP) event of 14 July 2012 using the energetic particle acceleration and transport model named PARADISE, together with the solar wind and coronal mass ejection (CME) model named EUHFORIA. The simulation results illustrate both the capabilities and limitations of the utilised models. We show that the models capture some essential structural features of the ESP event; however, for some aspects the simulations and observations diverge. We describe and, to some extent, assess the sources of errors in the modelling chain of EUHFORIA and PARADISE and discuss how they may be mitigated in the future. The PARADISE model evolves energetic particle distributions in a background solar wind generated by the ideal MHD module of EUHFORIA. The CME generating the ESP event is simulated by using the spheromak model of EUHFORIA, which approximates the CME's flux rope as a linear force-free spheroidal magnetic field. In addition, a tool was developed to trace CME-driven shock waves in the EUHFORIA simulation domain. This tool is used in PARADISE to (i) inject 50 keV protons continuously at the CME-driven shock and (ii) include a foreshock and a sheath region, in which the energetic particle parallel mean free path, $λ_\parallel$, decreases towards the shock wave. The value of $λ_\parallel$ at the shock wave is estimated from in situ observations of the ESP event. For energies below 1 MeV, the simulation results agree well with both the upstream and downstream components of the ESP event observed by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). This suggests that these low-energy protons are mainly the result of interplanetary particle acceleration. In the downstream region, the sharp drop in the energetic particle intensities is reproduced at the entry into the following magnetic cloud, illustrating the importance of a magnetised CME model.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2022

Towards a realistic evaluation of transport coefficients in non-equilibrium space plasmas

Recent studies have outlined the interest for the evaluation of transport coefficients in space plasmas, where the observed velocity distributions of plasma particles are conditioned not only by the binary collisions, e.g., at low energies, but also by the energisation of particles from their interaction with wave turbulence and fluctuations, generating the suprathermal Kappa-distributed populations. This paper provides a first estimate of the main transport coefficients based on regularised Kappa distributions (RKDs), which, unlike standard Kappa distributions (SKDs), enable macroscopic parameterisation without mathematical divergences or physical inconsistencies. All transport coefficients derived here, i.e., the diffusion and mobility coefficients, electric conductivity, thermoelectric coefficient and thermal conductivity, are finite and well defined for all values of $κ> 0$. Moreover, for low values of $κ$ (i.e., below the SKD poles), the transport coefficients can be orders of magnitudes higher than the corresponding Maxwellian limits, meaning that significant underestimations can be made if suprathermal electrons are ignored.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2021

Study of the propagation, in situ signatures, and geoeffectiveness of shear-induced coronal mass ejections in different solar winds

Aims: Our goal is to propagate multiple eruptions - obtained through numerical simulations performed in a previous study - to 1 AU and to analyse the effects of different background solar winds on their dynamics and structure at Earth. We also aim to improve the understanding of why some consecutive eruptions do not result in the expected geoeffectiveness, and how a secondary coronal mass ejection (CME) can affect the configuration of the preceding one. Methods: Using the 2.5D magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) package of the code MPI-AMRVAC, we numerically modeled consecutive CMEs inserted in two different solar winds by imposing shearing motions onto the inner boundary. The initial magnetic configuration depicts a triple arcade structure shifted southward, and embedded into a bimodal solar wind. We compared our simulated signatures with those of a multiple CME event in Sept 2009 using data from spacecraft around Mercury and Earth. We computed and analysed the Dst index for all the simulations performed. Results: The observed event fits well at 1 AU with two of our simulations, one with a stealth CME and the other without. This highlights the difficulty of attempting to use in situ observations to distinguish whether or not the second eruption was stealthy, because of the processes the flux ropes undergo during their propagation in the interplanetary space. We simulate the CMEs propagated in two different solar winds, one slow and another faster one. Only in the first case, plasma blobs arise in the trail of eruptions. Interestingly, the Dst computation results in a reduced geoeffectiveness in the case of consecutive CMEs when the flux ropes arrive with a leading positive Bz. When the Bz component is reversed, the geoeffectiveness increases, meaning that the magnetic reconnections with the trailing blobs and eruptions strongly affect the impact of the arriving interplanetary CME.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Transport coefficients enhanced by suprathermal particles in nonequilibrium heliospheric plasmas

In heliospheric plasmas the transport of energy and particles is governed by various fluxes (e.g., heat flux) triggered by different forces, electromagnetic fields, and gradients in density or temperature. In the outer corona and at relatively low heliocentric distances in the solar wind (i.e., < 1 AU), particle-particle collisions play an important role in the transport of energy, momentum, and matter, described within classical transport theory by the transport coefficients, which relate the fluxes to their sources. The present paper aims to improve the evaluation of the main transport coefficients in such nonequilibrium plasmas, on the basis of an implicit realistic characterization of their particle velocity distributions, in accord with the in situ observations. Of particular interest is the presence of suprathermal populations and their influence on these transport coefficients. Using the Boltzmann transport equation and macroscopic laws for the energy and particle fluxes, we derived electric conductivity, thermoelectric coefficient, thermal conductivity, diffusion, and mobility coefficient. These are conditioned by the electrons, which are empirically well described by the Kappa distribution, with a nearly Maxwellian core and power-law tails enhanced by the suprathermal population. Here we have adopted the original Kappa approach that has the ability to outline and quantify the contribution of suprathermal populations. Without exception, the transport coefficients are found to be systematically and markedly enhanced in the presence of suprathermal electrons, due to the additional kinetic energy with which these populations contribute to the dynamics of space plasma systems. The present results also show how important an adequate Kappa modeling of suprathermal populations is, which is in contrast to other modified interpretations that underestimate the effects of these populations.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Evolution of interplanetary coronal mass ejection complexity: a numerical study through a swarm of simulated spacecraft

In-situ measurements carried out by spacecraft in radial alignment are critical to advance our knowledge on the evolutionary behavior of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their magnetic structures during propagation through interplanetary space. Yet, the scarcity of radially aligned CME crossings restricts investigations on the evolution of CME magnetic structures to a few case studies, preventing a comprehensive understanding of CME complexity changes during propagation. In this paper, we perform numerical simulations of CMEs interacting with different solar wind streams using the linear force-free spheromak CME model incorporated into the EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) model. The novelty of our approach lies in the investigation of the evolution of CME complexity using a swarm of radially aligned, simulated spacecraft. Our scope is to determine under which conditions, and to what extent, CMEs exhibit variations of their magnetic structure and complexity during propagation, as measured by spacecraft that are radially aligned. Results indicate that the interaction with large-scale solar wind structures, and particularly with stream interaction regions, doubles the probability to detect an increase of the CME magnetic complexity between two spacecraft in radial alignment, compared to cases without such interactions. This work represents the first attempt to quantify the probability of detecting complexity changes in CME magnetic structures by spacecraft in radial alignment using numerical simulations, and it provides support to the interpretation of multi-point CME observations involving past, current (such as Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter), and future missions.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Spatial variation of periods of ion and neutral waves in a solar magnetic arcade

We present a new insight into the propagation of ion magnetoacoustic and neutral acoustic waves in a magnetic arcade in the lower solar atmosphere. By means of numerical simulations, we aim to: (a) study two-fluid waves propagating in a magnetic arcade embedded in the partially-ionized, lower solar atmosphere; and (b) investigate the impact of the background magnetic field configuration on the observed wave-periods. We consider a 2D approximation of the gravitationally stratified and partially-ionized lower solar atmosphere consisting of ion+electron and neutral fluids that are coupled by ion-neutral collisions. In this model, the convection below the photosphere is responsible for the excitation of ion magnetoacoustic-gravity and neutral acoustic-gravity waves. We find that in the solar photosphere, where ions and neutrals are strongly coupled by collisions, ion magnetoacoustic-gravity and neutral acoustic-gravity waves have periods ranging from 250 s to 350 s. In the chromosphere, where the collisional coupling is weak, the wave characteristics strongly depend on the magnetic field configuration. Above the foot-points of the considered arcade, the plasma is dominated by a vertical magnetic field along which ion magnetoacoustic-gravity waves propagate. These waves exhibit a broad range of periods with the most prominent periods of 180 s, 220 s, and 300 s. Above the main loop of the solar arcade, where mostly horizontal magnetic field lines guide ion magnetoacoustic-gravity waves, the main spectral power reduces to the period of about 180 s and longer wave-periods do not exist. Our results are in agreement with the recent observational data reported by Wiśniewska et al. (2016) and Kayshap et al. (2018).

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Two-fluid Modeling of Acoustic Wave Propagation in Gravitationally Stratified Isothermal Media

To study acoustic wave propagation and the corresponding energy deposition in partially ionized plasmas, we use a two-fluid computational model that treats neutrals and charged particles (electrons and ions) as two separate fluids. This two-fluid model takes into account the ion-neutral collisions, ionization, and recombination, allowing us to investigate both the collisional and reactive interactions between uncoupled ions and neutrals in the plasmas. In the present numerical simulations, the initial density is specified to reach hydrostatic equilibrium, and as a comparison, chemical equilibrium is also taken into account to provide a density profile that differs from typical hydrostatic equilibrium profiles. External velocity drivers are then imposed to generate monochromatic acoustic waves. As is well known, the upward propagating acoustic waves steepen in gravitationally stratified plasmas due to the exponentially decreasing density, and they heat the plasmas in the nonlinear regimes where kinetic energy is dissipated by shock waves and collisional interactions. In particular, the lower ionization fraction resulting from the present initial chemical equilibrium significantly enhances the heating efficiency. Moreover, the ionization process absorbs a significant amount of energy, and the decoupling between ions and neutrals is also enhanced while considering ionization and recombination. Therefore, simulations without considering ionization and recombination may overestimate the overall heating effects but also underestimate the energy dissipation. The results also suggest that a more accurate ionization and recombination model could be essential for improving the modeling of partially ionized plasmas.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2021

A Self-consistent Simulation of Proton Acceleration and Transport Near a High-speed Solar Wind Stream

Solar wind stream interaction regions (SIRs) are often characterized by energetic ion enhancements. The mechanisms accelerating these particles, as well as the locations where the acceleration occurs, remain debated. Here, we report the findings of a simulation of a SIR event observed by Parker Solar Probe at ~0.56 au and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Ahead at ~0.95 au in 2019 September when both spacecraft were approximately radially aligned with the Sun. The simulation reproduces the solar wind configuration and the energetic particle enhancements observed by both spacecraft. Our results show that the energetic particles are produced at the compression waves associated with the SIR and that the suprathermal tail of the solar wind is a good candidate to provide the seed population for particle acceleration. The simulation confirms that the acceleration process does not require shock waves and can already commence within Earth's orbit, with an energy dependence on the precise location where particles are accelerated. The three-dimensional configuration of the solar wind streams strongly modulates the energetic particle distributions, illustrating the necessity of advanced models to understand these particle events.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2021

Exploring the radial evolution of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections using EUHFORIA

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are large-scale eruptions from the Sun into interplanetary space. Despite being major space weather drivers, our knowledge of the CME properties in the inner heliosphere remains constrained by the scarcity of observations at distances other than 1 au. Furthermore, most CMEs are observed in situ by single spacecraft, requiring numerical models to complement the sparse observations available. We aim to assess the ability of the linear force-free spheromak CME model in EUHFORIA to describe the radial evolution of interplanetary CMEs, yielding new context for observational studies. We model one well-studied CME, and investigate its radial evolution by placing virtual spacecraft along the Sun-Earth line in the simulation domain. To directly compare observational and modelling results, we characterise the interplanetary CME signatures between 0.2 and 1.9 au from modelled time series, exploiting techniques traditionally employed to analyse real in situ data. Results show that the modelled radial evolution of the mean solar wind and CME values is consistent with observational and theoretical expectations. The CME expands as a consequence of the decaying pressure in the surrounding wind: the expansion is rapid within 0.4 au, and moderate at larger distances. The early rapid expansion could not explain the overestimated CME radial size in our simulation, suggesting this is an intrinsic limitation of the spheromak geometry used. The magnetic field profile indicates a relaxation of the CME during propagation, while ageing is most probably not a substantial source of magnetic asymmetry beyond 0.4 au. We also report a CME wake that is significantly shorter than suggested by observations. Overall, EUHFORIA provides a consistent description of the radial evolution of solar wind and CMEs; nevertheless, improvements are required to better reproduce the CME radial extension.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Implementing the MULTI-VP coronal model in EUHFORIA: test case results and comparisons with the WSA coronal model

In this study, we focus on improving EUHFORIA (European Heliospheric Forecasting Information Asset), a recently developed 3D MHD space weather prediction tool. EUHFORIA consists of two parts, covering two spatial domains; the solar corona and the inner heliosphere. For the first part, the semi-empirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is used by default, which employs the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) and Schatten Current Sheet (SCS) models to provide the necessary solar wind plasma and magnetic conditions above the solar surface, at 0.1 AU, that serve as boundary conditions for the inner heliospheric part. Herein, we present the first results of the implementation of an alternative coronal model in EUHFORIA, the so-called MULTI-VP model. We compared the output of the default coronal model with the output from MULTI-VP at the inner boundary of the heliospheric domain of EUHFORIA in order to understand differences between the two models, before they propagate to Earth. We also compared the performance of WSA+EUHFORIA-heliosphere and MULTI-VP+EUHFORIA-heliosphere against in situ observations at Earth. In the frame of this study, we considered two different high-speed stream cases, one during a period of low solar activity and one during a period of high solar activity. We also employed two different magnetograms, i.e., GONG and WSO. Our results show that the choice of both the coronal model and the magnetogram play an important role on the accuracy of the solar wind prediction. However, it is not clear which component plays the most important role for the modeled results obtained at Earth. A statistical analysis with an appropriate number of simulations is needed to confirm our findings.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Towards a general quasi-linear approach for the instabilities of bi-Kappa plasmas. Whistler instability

Kappa distributions are ubiquitous in space and astrophysical poorly collisional plasmas, such as the solar wind, suggesting that microscopic and macroscopic properties of these non-equilibrium plasmas are highly conditioned by the wave-particle interactions. The present work addresses the evolution of anisotropic bi-Kappa (or bi-$κ$-)distributions of electrons triggering instabilities of electromagnetic electron-cyclotron (or whistler) modes. The new quasi-linear approach proposed here includes time variations of the $κ$ parameter during the relaxation of temperature anisotropy. Numerical results show that $κ$ may increase for short interval of times at the beginning, but then decreases towards a value lower than the initial one, while the plasma beta and temperature anisotropy indicate a systematic relaxation. Our results suggest that the electromagnetic turbulence plays an important role on the suprathermalization of the plasma, ultimately lowering the parameter $κ$. Even though the variation of $κ$ is in general negative ($Δκ<0$) this variation seems to depend of the initial conditions of anisotropic electrons, which can vary very much in the inner heliosphere.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2020

Thermal conduction effects on formation of chromospheric solar tadpole-like jets

We measure the effects of non-isotropic thermal conduction on generation of solar chromospheric jets through numerical simulations carried out with the use of one fluid MHD code MAGNUS. Following the work of Srivastava et al. (2018), we consider the atmospheric state with a realistic temperature model and generate the ejection of plasma through a gas pressure driver operating in the top chromosphere. We consider the magnetic field mimicking a flux tube and perform parametric studies by varying the magnetic field strength and the amplitude of the driver. We find that in the case of thermal conduction the triggered jets exhibit a considerably larger energy and mass fluxes and their shapes are more collimated and penetrate more the solar corona than for the ideal MHD equations. Low magnetic fields allow these jets to be more energetic, and larger magnetic fields decrease the enhancement of mass and energy due to the inclusion of the thermal conductivity.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Domain of Influence analysis: implications for Data Assimilation in space weather forecasting

Solar activity, ranging from the background solar wind to energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is the main driver of the conditions in the interplanetary space and in the terrestrial space environment, known as space weather. A better understanding of the Sun-Earth connection carries enormous potential to mitigate negative space weather effects with economic and social benefits. Effective space weather forecasting relies on data and models. In this paper, we discuss some of the most used space weather models, and propose suitable locations for data gathering with space weather purposes. We report on the application of \textit{Representer analysis (RA)} and \textit{Domain of Influence (DOI) analysis} to three models simulating different stages of the Sun-Earth connection: the OpenGGCM and Tsyganenko models, focusing on solar wind - magnetosphere interaction, and the PLUTO model, used to simulate CME propagation in interplanetary space. Our analysis is promising for space weather purposes for several reasons. First, we obtain quantitative information about the most useful locations of observation points, such as solar wind monitors. For example, we find that the absolute values of the DOI are extremely low in the magnetospheric plasma sheet. Since knowledge of that particular sub-system is crucial for space weather, enhanced monitoring of the region would be most beneficial. Second, we are able to better characterize the models. Although the current analysis focuses on spatial rather than temporal correlations, we find that time-independent models are less useful for Data Assimilation activities than time-dependent models. Third, we take the first steps towards the ambitious goal of identifying the most relevant heliospheric parameters for modelling CME propagation in the heliosphere, their arrival time, and their geoeffectiveness at Earth.

physics.space-ph↗