arXiv subjects

Stefano Rinaldi

Publications and source records attributed to Stefano Rinaldi.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

When the black holes align: a subpopulation of aligned massive binary black holes observed via gravitational waves

In this work, we investigate the features present in the joint primary mass and effective spin distribution of binary black holes without relying on specific modelling assumptions. We make use of non-parametric methods, flexible models capable of approximating arbitrary probability densities with minimal mathematical assumptions, applying it to the newly released GWTC-5.0. Our analysis supports, albeit with large uncertainties, the presence of at least two separate sub-population of binary black holes showing different effective spin distributions: one of them, preferring positive $\chi_\mathrm{eff}$ values, points towards the direction of systems formed in a non-spherically-symmetric, dynamical environment.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Population synthesis of Be X-ray binaries in the Small Magellanic Cloud: Angular momentum recycling and stable mass transfer

Be X-ray binaries (BeXRBs) are key laboratories to constrain binary interaction processes such as mass transfer, angular-momentum transport, and natal kicks. The Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), hosting a nearly complete and well-characterized BeXRB population, offers a unique opportunity to test these physical processes at low metallicity. We aim to identify the combination of binary-evolution parameters that simultaneously reproduces the observed number and the joint distribution of orbital period and optical magnitude of SMC BeXRBs. We performed an extensive grid analysis of binary population-synthesis models exploring different mass transfer efficiencies, angular-momentum transport prescriptions and Roche-lobe overflow stability criteria. We also considered the impact of natal kicks, and that of the propeller effect of rotating magnetic fields of neutron stars. Synthetic populations obtained with the binary population synthesis code $\texttt{sevn}$ are statistically compared to observations using likelihood-based methods applied to the orbital period and $V$-band magnitude distributions, together with requirements on the total number of systems. We find that models in which mass transfer via Roche-lobe overflow is assumed to be always stable and angular momentum is recycled back into the orbit through tides when the accretor approaches critical rotation provide the best match to observations. Our best-fitting models favor low natal kicks ($\lesssim 100\ \rm km\ s^{-1}$), a moderate mass transfer efficiency ($f_{\rm MT} \simeq 0.6$), a minimum Be threshold spin close to critical rotation, and a strong suppression of accretion onto neutron stars due to the propeller effect. Specifically, the observable population is highly sensitive to the treatment of the propeller effect, which regulates the X-ray luminosity of wide, low-accretion-rate systems.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

The role of accretion efficiency, natal kicks, and angular momentum transport in the formation of the Gaia black holes

Gaia has the potential to deliver several tens of new dormant black holes (BHs) with low-mass stellar companions (hereafter, Gaia BHs) in the upcoming fourth data release. Three Gaia BHs are already known, but their formation pathways remain uncertain. Here, we perform a large parametric study to explore the formation of Gaia BHs from isolated binary systems with the population-synthesis code SEVN and compare our models with the properties of the three already reported Gaia BHs. Specifically, we explore the impact of accretion efficiency, mass transfer stability, natal kicks, angular momentum transport, and core-collapse supernova prescriptions. We find that models in which stable mass transfer is highly non-conservative and angular momentum is lost as a wind from the donor surface (Jeans mode) maximize the probability of forming dormant systems that match the properties of the observed Gaia BHs in terms of both orbital period and eccentricity, because such assumptions prevent the initial orbit from shrinking too much when the BH progenitor fills its Roche lobe. If we allow for common-envelope evolution, we find that models with common-envelope ejection efficiency $\alpha{} < 1$ predict dormant systems with orbital periods that are too short compared to the observed Gaia BHs. The eccentricity of the observed Gaia BHs, when combined with information about orbital period and BH mass, favors relatively large natal kicks, similar to those inferred from Galactic neutron stars. Finally, models in which BH natal kicks are low - e.g. because they are modulated by fallback - result in the formation of a large population of dormant BHs with long orbital periods ($P_{\rm orb}>10^4$ days), which will be tested soon by the fourth Gaia data release.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Gravitational-wave Observations Suggest Most Black Hole Mergers Form in Triples

The spin-orbit tilt angles $\theta_{1(2)}$ of merging stellar-mass black holes provide key insights into their astrophysical origin. Non-parametric population modelling of The LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA Collaborations (2025a, arXiv:2508.18083) shows that the spin-orbit tilt distribution of mergers in the latest Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog 4.0 exhibits a global peak at near-perpendicular directions $\cos\theta_{1(2)}\approx0$. Here, we recover this feature using hierarchical Bayesian inference with parametric models that are tailored to enhance the diagnostic power about astrophysical formation channels. We find that the spin distribution of the low-mass bulk of the binary black hole merger population ($m_1\lesssim 44.3^{+8.7}_{-4.6}\,\rm M_\odot$) can be well-modelled by a dominant Gaussian component that peaks at $\cos\theta_{1(2)}\approx0$, possibly mixed with a subdominant isotropic component. Models that include a component with spins preferentially aligned with the orbit are disfavoured by current data (with Bayes factors $|\Delta\ln\mathcal{B}|\approx1$ to $3$) and constrain its contribution to be likely small ($\xi\sim\mathcal{O}(1)\,\%$), although large contributions cannot yet ruled out with certainty. If these findings are reinforced by more detections, they would challenge any major contribution from the traditional isolated-binary formation scenario yielding closely aligned spins. Instead, the dominant component with near-perpendicular spins matches expectations from the evolution of isolated massive stellar triples in the galactic field, where the Lidov-Kozai effect naturally produces a unique overabundance of mergers with $\cos\theta_{1(2)}\approx0$.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Expect the unexpected: augmented mixture models for black-hole-population studies

Black hole population studies are currently performed either using astrophysically motivated models (informed but rigid in their functional forms) or via non-parametric methods (flexible but not directly interpretable). In this paper, we present a statistical framework to complement the predictive power of astrophysically motivated models with the flexibility of non-parametric methods. Our method makes use of the Dirichlet distribution to robustly infer the relative weights of different models as well as of the Gibbs sampling approach to efficiently explore the parameter space. After having validated our approach using simulated data, we apply this method to the BBH mergers observed during the first three Observing Runs of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration using both phenomenological and astrophysical models as parametric models, finding results in agreement with the currently available literature.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Comparing astrophysical models to gravitational-wave data in the observable space

Comparing population-synthesis models to the results of hierarchical Bayesian inference in gravitational-wave astronomy requires a careful understanding of the domain of validity of the models fitted to data. This comparison is usually done using the inferred astrophysical distribution: from the data that were collected, one deconvolves selection effects to reconstruct the generating population distribution. In this paper, we demonstrate the benefits of instead comparing observable populations directly. In this approach, the domain of validity of the models is trivially respected, such that only the relevant parameter space regions as predicted by the astrophysical models of interest contribute to the comparison. With this in mind, it can be useful to fit the observed population directly, rather than effectively deconvolving the selection effects only to fold them back in when reconstructing the observable population. We clarify that unbiased inference of the observable compact-binary population is indeed possible. Crucially, this approach still requires incorporating selection effects, but in a manner that differs from the standard implementation. We apply our observable-space reconstruction to LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA data from their third observing run and illustrate its potential by comparing the results to the predictions of a fiducial population-synthesis model.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Exploration of features in the black hole mass spectrum inspired by non-parametric analyses of gravitational wave observations

Current gravitational-wave data reveal structures in the mass function of binary compact objects. Properly modelling and deciphering such structures is the ultimate goal of gravitational-wave population analysis: in this context, non-parametric models are a powerful tool to infer the distribution of black holes from gravitational waves without committing to any specific functional form. Here, we aim to quantitatively corroborate the findings of non-parametric methods with parametrised models incorporating the features found in such analyses. We propose two modifications of the currently favoured PowerLaw+Peak model, inspired by non-parametric studies, and use them to analyse the third Gravitational Wave Transient Catalogue. Our analysis marginally supports the existence of two distinct, differently redshift-evolving subpopulations in the black hole primary mass function, and suggests that, to date, we are still unable to robustly assess the shape of the mass ratio distribution for symmetric ($q>0.7$) binaries.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Trust the process: mapping data-driven reconstructions to informed models using stochastic processes

Gravitational-wave astronomy has entered a regime where it can extract information about the population properties of the observed binary black holes. The steep increase in the number of detections will offer deeper insights, but it will also significantly raise the computational cost of testing multiple models. To address this challenge, we propose a procedure that first performs a non-parametric (data-driven) reconstruction of the underlying distribution, and then remaps these results onto a posterior for the parameters of a parametric (informed) model. The computational cost is primarily absorbed by the initial non-parametric step, while the remapping procedure is both significantly easier to perform and computationally cheaper. In addition to yielding the posterior distribution of the model parameters, this method also provides a measure of the model's goodness-of-fit, opening for a new quantitative comparison across models.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Non-parametric identification of single-lined binary candidates in young clusters using single-epoch spectroscopy

Binarity plays a crucial role in star formation and evolution. Consequently, identifying binary stars is essential to deepen our understanding of these processes. We propose a method to investigate the observed radial velocity distribution of massive stars in young clusters with the goal of identifying binary systems. We reconstruct the radial velocity distribution using a three-layers hierarchical Bayesian non-parametric approach: non-parametric methods are data-driven models able to infer arbitrary probability densities under minimal mathematical assumptions. When applying our statistical framework, it is possible to identify variable stars and binary systems because these deviate significantly from the expected intrinsic Gaussian distribution for radial velocities. We test our method with the massive star forming region within the giant H$_\mathrm{II}$ region M17. We are able to confidently identify binaries and variable stars with as little as single-epoch observations. The distinction between variable and binary stars improves significantly when introducing additional epochs.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

Inferring cosmology from gravitational waves using non-parametric detector-frame mass distribution

The challenge of understanding the Universe's dynamics, particularly the Hubble tension, requires precise measurements of the Hubble constant. Building upon the existing spectral-siren method, which capitalizes on population information from gravitational-wave sources, this paper explores an alternative way to analyze the population data to obtain the cosmological parameters in $\Lambda$CDM. We demonstrated how non-parametric methods, which are flexible models that can be used to agnostically reconstruct arbitrary probability densities, can be incorporated into this framework and leverage the detector-frame mass distribution to infer the cosmological parameters. We tested our method with mock data and applied it to $70$ binary black hole mergers from the third gravitational-wave transient catalog of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Galaxy lens reconstruction based on strongly lensed gravitational waves: similarity transformation degeneracy and mass-sheet degeneracy

Gravitational wave (GW) galaxy lens reconstruction is a crucial step for many GW lensing science applications. However, dark siren GW lensing (i.e. lensed GW without observed electromagnetic (EM) counterpart) suffers from similarity transformation degeneracy and mass-sheet degeneracy. We review these two degeneracies and discuss their implications on GW-based lens reconstruction and two well-known GW lensing science cases: the Hubble constant measurement and test for modified GW propagation. Building upon previous works, our conclusions are:1) GWs can only infer the scale-free lens mass model parameters, the dimensionless source position, the GW luminosity distance and the time delay scaling (a combination of Einstein radius, lens redshift, and cosmology).2) Lens reconstruction (of singular isothermal ellipsoid lens) with only two GW signals is unlikely to yield a complete lens model, while four (three) signals can measure all the above parameters accurately (with large uncertainties).3) The similarity transformation degeneracy causes the lens redshift/Einstein radius/cosmology to be degenerate in dark siren measurements. Breaking the degeneracy can be achieved by supplementing the GWs with EM observation of lens redshifts/Einstein radius (source redshift is not required).4) The mass-sheet degeneracy causes the GW luminosity distance to be entirely degenerate with a constant mass sheet.5) Contrary to expectation, the Hubble constant is degenerate with the mass-sheet even when supplemented with lens reconstruction/redshift/Einstein radius and can only be lifted with lens galaxy velocity dispersion measurement, while modified GW propagation test discussed in prior literature is unaffected by the degeneracy. These properties highlight the need for GW observations to be supplemented by EM observations, which could become accessible through a lens archival search or a rapid EM follow-up.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

GWnext 2024: Meeting Summary

GWnext 2024 was a meeting held in the Kavli Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics at Peking University in March $4^\text{th} - 8^\text{th}$, 2024. In the meeting researchers at different career stages -- with a particular focus on early career scientists -- working on the different aspects of gravitational wave (GW) astronomy gathered to discuss the current status as well as prospects of the field. The meeting was divided into three core sessions: Astrophysics, GW Theory, and Detection. Each session consisted of introductory talks and extended discussion sessions. Moreover, there was a poster session where students could present their results. In this paper, we summarize the results presented during the meeting and present the most important outcomes.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Hierarchical inference of evidence using posterior samples

The Bayesian evidence, crucial ingredient for model selection, is arguably the most important quantity in Bayesian data analysis: at the same time, however, it is also one of the most difficult to compute. In this paper we present a hierarchical method that leverages on a multivariate normalised approximant for the posterior probability density to infer the evidence for a model in a hierarchical fashion using a set of posterior samples drawn using an arbitrary sampling scheme.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Accounting for selection biases in population analyses: equivalence of the in-likelihood and post-processing approaches

In this paper I show the equivalence, under appropriate assumptions, of two alternative methods to account for the presence of selection biases (also called selection effects) in population studies: one is to include the selection effects in the likelihood directly; the other follows the procedure of first inferring the observed distribution and then removing selection effects a posteriori. Moreover, I investigate a potential bias allegedly induced by the latter approach: I show that this procedure, if applied under the appropriate assumptions, does not produce the aforementioned bias.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

The boring history of Gaia BH3 from isolated binary evolution

Gaia BH3 is the first observed dormant black hole (BH) with a mass of $\approx{30}$ M$_\odot$ and represents the first confirmation that such massive BHs are associated with metal-poor stars. Here, we explore the isolated binary formation channel for Gaia BH3 focusing on the old and metal-poor stellar population of the Milky Way halo. We use the MIST stellar models and our open-source population synthesis code SEVN to evolve $5.6 \times 10^8$ binaries exploring 20 sets of parameters. We find that systems like Gaia BH3 form preferentially from binaries initially composed of a massive star ($40-60$ M$_\odot$) and a low mass companion ($<1$ M$_\odot$) in a wide ($P>10^3$ days) and eccentric orbit ($e>0.6$). Such progenitor binary stars do not undergo any Roche-lobe overflow episode during their entire evolution, so that the final orbital properties of the BH-star system are determined at the core collapse of the primary star. Low natal kicks ($\lesssim$ 10~km/s) significantly favour the formation of Gaia BH3-like systems, but high velocity kicks up to $\approx 220$ km/s are also allowed. We estimate the formation efficiency for Gaia BH3-like systems in old ($t>10$ Gyr) and metal-poor ($Z<0.01$) populations to be $\sim 4 \times 10^{-8}$ M$_\odot^{-1}$ (for our fiducial model), representing $\sim 3\%$ of the whole simulated BH-star population. We expect up to $\approx 4000$ BH-star systems in the Galactic halo formed through isolated evolution, of which $\approx 100$ are compatible with Gaia BH3-like. Given the density profile of the Galactic halo we do not expect more than one at the observed distance of Gaia BH3. Our models show that, even if it was born inside a stellar cluster, Gaia BH3 is compatible with a primordial binary star that escaped from its parent cluster without experiencing significant dynamical interactions.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

GW190521: a binary black hole merger inside an active galactic nucleus?

GW190521, the most massive binary black hole merger confidently detected by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration, is the first gravitational-wave observation of an intermediate-mass black hole. The signal was followed approximately 34 days later by flare ZTF19abanrhr, detected in AGN J124942.3+344929 by the Zwicky Transient Facility at the 78% spatial contour for GW190521s sky localization. Using the GWTC-2.1 data release, we find that the association between GW190521 and flare ZTF19abanrhr as its electromagnetic counterpart is preferred over a random coincidence of the two transients with a log Bayes factor of 8.6, corresponding to an odds ratio of $\sim$ 5400 to 1 for equal prior odds and $\sim$ 400 to 1 assuming an astrophysical prior odds of 1/13. Given the association, the multi-messenger signal allows for an estimation of the Hubble constant, finding $H_0 = 102^{+27}_{-25}\mathrm{\ km \ s^{-1} \ Mpc^{-1}}$ when solely analyzing GW190521 and $79.2^{+17.6}_{-9.6}\mathrm{\ km \ s^{-1} \ Mpc^{-1}}$ assuming prior information from the binary neutron star merger GW170817, both consistent with the existing literature.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

A fast test for the identification and confirmation of massive black hole binaries

We present a new observational test to identify massive black hole binaries in large multi-epoch spectroscopical catalogues and to probe the real nature of already proposed binary candidates. The test is tailored for binaries with separations large enough to allow each black hole to retain its own broad line region. In this limit the fast AGN variability typically observed over months cannot be associated to the much longer binary period, and it is assumed (as for the case of single black holes) to be the consequence of the evolution of the innermost regions of the two accretion discs. A simple analysis of the cross-correlation between different parts of individual broad emission lines can therefore identify the presence of two massive black holes whose continua vary independently of each other. Our analysis indicates that to be less affected by the noise in the spectra the broad lines should be divided in two close-to-equal-flux parts. This ensures that in the single massive black hole scenario the cross-correlation will always be high. With monitoring campaigns similar to those performed for reverberation mapping studies, on the other way, a binary can show any value of the cross-correlation and can therefore be distinguished from a standard AGN. The new test can be performed over timescales orders of magnitude shorter than the alternative tests already discussed in literature, and can be a powerful complement to the massive black hole binary search strategies already in place.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Evidence for the evolution of black hole mass function with redshift

We investigate the joint primary mass, mass ratio, and redshift observed distribution of astrophysical black holes using the gravitational wave events detected by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration and included in the third gravitational wave transient catalogue. We reconstruct this distribution using Bayesian non-parametric methods, which are data-driven models able to infer arbitrary probability densities under minimal mathematical assumptions. We find evidence for the evolution with redshift of both the primary mass and mass ratio distribution: our analysis shows the presence of two distinct sub-populations in the primary mass - redshift plane, with the lighter population, $\lesssim$ 20 $M_\odot$, disappearing at higher redshifts, $z > 0.4$. The mass ratio distribution shows no support for symmetric binaries. The observed population of coalescing binary black holes evolves with look-back time, suggesting a trend in metallicity with redshift and/or the presence of multiple, redshift-dependent formation channels.

astro-ph.HE↗