arXiv subjects

Stefano Rinaldi

Publications and source records attributed to Stefano Rinaldi.

24 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

A fast test for the identification and confirmation of massive black hole binaries

We present a new observational test to identify massive black hole binaries in large multi-epoch spectroscopical catalogues and to probe the real nature of already proposed binary candidates. The test is tailored for binaries with separations large enough to allow each black hole to retain its own broad line region. In this limit the fast AGN variability typically observed over months cannot be associated to the much longer binary period, and it is assumed (as for the case of single black holes) to be the consequence of the evolution of the innermost regions of the two accretion discs. A simple analysis of the cross-correlation between different parts of individual broad emission lines can therefore identify the presence of two massive black holes whose continua vary independently of each other. Our analysis indicates that to be less affected by the noise in the spectra the broad lines should be divided in two close-to-equal-flux parts. This ensures that in the single massive black hole scenario the cross-correlation will always be high. With monitoring campaigns similar to those performed for reverberation mapping studies, on the other way, a binary can show any value of the cross-correlation and can therefore be distinguished from a standard AGN. The new test can be performed over timescales orders of magnitude shorter than the alternative tests already discussed in literature, and can be a powerful complement to the massive black hole binary search strategies already in place.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

GW190521: a binary black hole merger inside an active galactic nucleus?

GW190521, the most massive binary black hole merger confidently detected by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration, is the first gravitational-wave observation of an intermediate-mass black hole. The signal was followed approximately 34 days later by flare ZTF19abanrhr, detected in AGN J124942.3+344929 by the Zwicky Transient Facility at the 78% spatial contour for GW190521s sky localization. Using the GWTC-2.1 data release, we find that the association between GW190521 and flare ZTF19abanrhr as its electromagnetic counterpart is preferred over a random coincidence of the two transients with a log Bayes factor of 8.6, corresponding to an odds ratio of $\sim$ 5400 to 1 for equal prior odds and $\sim$ 400 to 1 assuming an astrophysical prior odds of 1/13. Given the association, the multi-messenger signal allows for an estimation of the Hubble constant, finding $H_0 = 102^{+27}_{-25}\mathrm{\ km \ s^{-1} \ Mpc^{-1}}$ when solely analyzing GW190521 and $79.2^{+17.6}_{-9.6}\mathrm{\ km \ s^{-1} \ Mpc^{-1}}$ assuming prior information from the binary neutron star merger GW170817, both consistent with the existing literature.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

Bayesian analysis of systematic errors in the determination of the constant of gravitation

Measurements of the gravitational constant $G$ are notoriously difficult. Individual state-of-the-art experiments have managed to determine the value of $G$ with high precision: although, when considered collectively, the range in the measured values of $G$ far exceeds individual uncertainties, suggesting the presence of unaccounted for systematic effects. Here, we propose a Bayesian framework to account for the presence of systematic errors in the various measurement of $G$ while proposing a consensus value, following two paths: a parametric approach, based on the Maximum Entropy Principle, and a non-parametric one, the latter being a very flexible approach not committed to any specific functional form. With both our methods, we find that the uncertainty on this fundamental constant, once systematics are included, is significantly larger than what quoted in CODATA 2018. Moreover, the morphology of the non-parametric distribution hints towards the presence of several sources of unaccounted for systematics. In light of this, we recommend a consensus value for the gravitational constant $G = 6.6740^{+0.0015}_{-0.0015} \times 10^{-11}\ \mathrm{m}^3\ \mathrm{kg}^{-1}\ \mathrm{s}^{-2}$.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

Binary neutron star populations in the Milky Way

Galactic binary neutron stars (BNSs) are a unique laboratory to probe the evolution of BNSs and their progenitors. Here, we use a new version of the population synthesis code SEVN to evolve the population of Galactic BNSs, by modeling the spin up and down of pulsars self-consistently. We analyze the merger rate $\mathcal{R}_{\rm MW}$, orbital period $P_{\rm orb}$, eccentricity $e$, spin period $P$, and spin period derivative $\dot{P}$ of the BNS population. Values of the common envelope parameter $α=1 - 3$ and an accurate model of the Milky Way star formation history best reproduce the BNS merger rate in our Galaxy ($\mathcal{R}_{\rm MW}\approx{}30$ Myr$^{-1}$). We apply radio-selection effects to our simulated BNSs and compare them to the observed population. Using a Dirichlet process Gaussian mixture method, we evaluate the four-dimensional likelihood in the $(P_{\rm orb}, e, P, \dot{P})$ space, by comparing our radio-selected simulated pulsars against Galactic BNSs. Our analysis favours an uniform initial distribution for both the magnetic field ($10^{10-13}$ G) and the spin period ($10-100$ ms). The implementation of radio selection effects is critical to match not only the spin period and period derivative, but also the orbital period and eccentricity of Galactic BNSs. According to our fiducial model, the Square Kilometre Array will detect $\sim 20$ new BNSs in the Milky Way.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Rapid localization of gravitational wave hosts with FIGARO

The copious scientific literature produced after the detection of GW170817 electromagnetic counterpart demonstrated the importance of a prompt and accurate localization of the gravitational wave within the co-moving volume. In this letter, we present FIGARO, a ready to use and publicly available software that relies on Bayesian non-parametrics. FIGARO is designed to run in parallel with parameter estimation algorithms to provide updated three-dimensional volume localization information. Differently from any existing algorithms, the analytical nature of the FIGARO reconstruction allows a ranking of the entries of galaxy catalogues by their probability of being the host of a gravitational wave event, hence providing an additional tool for a prompt electromagnetic follow up of gravitational waves. We illustrate the features of FIGARO on binary black holes as well as on GW170817. Finally, we demonstrate the robustness of FIGARO by producing so-called pp-plots and we present a method based on information entropy to assess when, during the parameter estimation run, it is reasonable to begin releasing skymaps.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2021

(H)DPGMM: A Hierarchy of Dirichlet Process Gaussian Mixture Models for the inference of the black hole mass function

We introduce (H)DPGMM, a hierarchical Bayesian non-parametric method based on the Dirichlet Process Gaussian Mixture Model, designed to infer data-driven population properties of astrophysical objects without being committal to any specific physical model. We investigate the efficacy of our model on simulated datasets and demonstrate its capability to reconstruct correctly a variety of population models without the need of fine-tuning of the algorithm. We apply our method to the problem of inferring the black hole mass function given a set of gravitational wave observations from LIGO and Virgo, and find that the (H)DPGMM infers a binary black hole mass function that is consistent with previous estimates without the requirement of a theoretically motivated parametric model. Although the number of systems observed is still too small for a robust inference, (H)DPGMM confirms the presence of at least two distinct modes in the observed merging black holes mass function, hence suggesting in a model-independent fashion the presence of at least two classes of binary black hole systems.

astro-ph.IM↗