arXiv subjects

Stephan Mandt

Publications and source records attributed to Stephan Mandt.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Video Diffusion for Satellite-based High-Dynamical-Fidelity Precipitation (HiDFiP) Field Generation

High spatiotemporal fidelity precipitation products that accurately capture storm spatial organization, propagation, and lifecycle evolution, are essential for advancing hydrometeorological research and operations at regional and global scales. Satellite products offer the only near-global precipitation observations, but they still fall short of reproducing the spatiotemporal structure of ground-based references, due largely to dynamic distortions from the inhomogeneity, intermittency, and indirectness of satellite retrievals. Here we propose a video-diffusion framework for satellite-based High-Dynamical-Fidelity Precipitation (HiDFiP) field generation beyond the space-time coverage of ground-radar, using radar-rich CONUS as a testbed. The framework performs explicit spatiotemporal modeling with IMERG as the primary source and leverages four-dimensional storm-environment information from about 40 ERA5/ERA5-Land atmospheric/land fields to compensate for the temporal information deficit inherent to satellite retrievals. We introduce an extensive metric suite to assess HiDFiP dynamical fidelity in temporal-reconstruction and spatial-transfer settings against MRMS ground-radar precipitation over CONUS. Relative to IMERG and image-wise diffusion baselines, HiDFiP accurately reproduces the storm space-time spectral characteristics; storm timing, location, and directional propagation; precipitation-event episodicity and temporal structure; precipitation-system morphology and spatial organization; and storm-track kinematics and lifecycle evolution. Transferability experiments indicate that HiDFiP generalizes reasonably well to an unseen region. This work advances a video-diffusion paradigm for satellite-based high-spatiotemporal-fidelity precipitation generation and provides an algorithmic and diagnostic foundation for long-term global radar-grade precipitation records.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Variational Test-time Optimization for Diffusion Synchronization

Collaborative generation, which coordinates multiple diffusion trajectories to extend the capabilities of pretrained priors, has emerged as a powerful paradigm for extending the applicability of diffusion models. Among existing approaches, diffusion synchronization provides a scenario-agnostic solution by introducing general guidance mechanisms. However, current synchronization approaches rely heavily on heuristics and still require task-specific tailoring, which limits their generalizability and performance. In this work, we mathematically derive a synchronization framework based on optimal control, providing a principled explanation of diffusion synchronization. During sampling, we optimize control variables to guide multiple trajectories toward coherent solutions while remaining close to the underlying diffusion prior. Our method operates entirely at test-time without additional training, thereby enabling broad applicability across diverse generation scenarios when combined with strong pretrained priors. We demonstrate consistent improvements over baselines on three representative collaborative generation tasks, covering a wide range of modalities and applications. Beyond performance gains, our work establishes a novel foundation for collaborative generation, opening a principled path toward extending pretrained generative models to new collaborative generation settings.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Uncertainty Estimation for Molecular Diffusion Models

Diffusion models have seen wide adoption for 3D molecular generation, yet they offer no principled signal of when a generated molecule is likely to be of low quality. We propose a post-hoc method for estimating per-sample uncertainty in pretrained molecular diffusion models. Building on a Laplace approximation of the denoising network, we measure the variability of the noise prediction across the generation trajectory. Empirically, we show that the resulting uncertainty score is informative of sample quality, exhibiting a negative correlation with established sample-level quality metrics. We further study how the proposed uncertainty score can be used to filter generated samples, improving model performance via test-time scaling.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Hierarchical Variational Policies for Reward-Guided Diffusion

Adapting pretrained diffusion models to downstream objectives such as inverse problems often requires expensive test-time guidance or optimization. We propose a principled framework for generating high-quality reward-aligned samples at substantially reduced inference cost. Our approach formulates test-time adaptation as a hierarchical variational model, where control is amortized into a lightweight yet expressive stochastic policy. This formulation naturally supports few-step diffusion sampling: large step sizes enable fast inference, while the learned policy maintains sample quality by providing structured per-step control. The resulting fully amortized sampler achieves a strong quality--speed tradeoff, matching or exceeding recent test-time scaling baselines while requiring significantly less compute. For example, on 4x super-resolution, our method achieves better perceptual quality with more than 5x faster inference compared to the best-performing baseline. We further extend our approach to a semi-amortized regime that combines cheap amortized proposals with limited test-time optimization, achieving state-of-the-art perceptual quality across several challenging inverse problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Skipping the Zeros in Diffusion Models for Sparse Data Generation

Diffusion models (DMs) excel on dense continuous data, but are not designed for sparse continuous data. They do not model exact zeros that represent the deliberate absence of a signal. As a result, they erase sparsity patterns and perform unnecessary computation on mostly zero entries. With Sparsity-Exploiting Diffusion (SED), we model only non-zero values, preserving sparsity. SED delivers computational savings while maintaining or improving generation quality by skipping zeros during training and inference. Across physics and biology benchmarks, SED matches or surpasses conventional DMs and domain-specific baselines, while vision experiments provide intuitive insights into the limitations of dense DMs and the benefits of SED.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A Scale-Adaptive Framework for Joint Spatiotemporal Super-Resolution with Diffusion Models

Deep-learning video super-resolution has progressed rapidly, but climate applications typically super-resolve (increase resolution) either space or time, and joint spatiotemporal models are often designed for a single pair of super-resolution (SR) factors (upscaling spatial and temporal ratio between the low-resolution sequence and the high-resolution sequence), limiting transfer across spatial resolutions and temporal cadences (frame rates). We present a scale-adaptive framework that reuses the same architecture across factors by decomposing spatiotemporal SR into a deterministic prediction of the conditional mean, with attention, and a residual conditional diffusion model, with an optional mass-conservation (same precipitation amount in inputs and outputs) transform to preserve aggregated totals. Assuming that larger SR factors primarily increase underdetermination (hence required context and residual uncertainty) rather than changing the conditional-mean structure, scale adaptivity is achieved by retuning three factor-dependent hyperparameters before retraining: the diffusion noise schedule amplitude beta (larger for larger factors to increase diversity), the temporal context length L (set to maintain comparable attention horizons across cadences) and optionally a third, the mass-conservation function f (tapered to limit the amplification of extremes for large factors). Demonstrated on reanalysis precipitation over France (Comephore), the same architecture spans super-resolution factors from 1 to 25 in space and 1 to 6 in time, yielding a reusable architecture and tuning recipe for joint spatiotemporal super-resolution across scales.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A Tale of Two Temperatures: Simple, Efficient, and Diverse Sampling from Diffusion Language Models

Much work has been done on designing fast and accurate sampling for diffusion language models (dLLMs). However, these efforts have largely focused on the tradeoff between speed and quality of individual samples; how to additionally ensure diversity across samples remains less well understood. In this work, we show that diversity can be increased by using softened, tempered versions of familiar confidence-based remasking heuristics, retaining their computational benefits and offering simple implementations. We motivate this approach by introducing an idealized formal model of fork tokens and studying the impact of remasking on the expected entropy at the forks. Empirically, the proposed tempered heuristics close the exploration gap (pass@k) between existing confidence-based and autoregressive sampling, hence outperforming both when controlling for cost (pass@NFE). We further study how the increase in diversity translates to downstream post-training and test-time compute scaling. Overall, our findings demonstrate that simple, efficient, and diverse sampling from dLLMs is possible.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Region-Adaptive Generative Compression with Spatially Varying Diffusion Models

Generative image codecs aim to optimize perceptual quality, producing realistic and detailed reconstructions. However, they often overlook a key property of human vision: our tendency to focus on particular aspects of a visual scene (e.g., salient objects) while giving less importance to other regions. An ideal perceptual codec should be able to exploit this property by allocating more representational capacity to perceptually important areas. To this end, we propose a region-adaptive diffusion-based image codec that supports non-uniform bit allocation within an image. We design a novel spatially varying diffusion model capable of denoising varying amounts of noise per pixel according to arbitrary importance maps. We further identify that these maps can serve as effective priors on the latent representation, and integrate them into our entropy model, improving rate-distortion performance. Built on these contributions, our spatially-adaptive diffusion-based codec outperforms state-of-the-art ROI-controllable baselines in both full-image and ROI-masked perceptual quality.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2026

Calibrated Test-Time Guidance for Bayesian Inference

Test-time guidance is a widely used mechanism for steering pretrained diffusion models toward outcomes specified by a reward function. Existing approaches, however, focus on maximizing reward rather than sampling from the true Bayesian posterior, leading to miscalibrated inference. In this work, we show that common test-time guidance methods do not recover the correct posterior distribution and identify the structural approximations responsible for this failure. We then propose consistent alternative estimators that enable calibrated sampling from the Bayesian posterior. We significantly outperform previous methods on a set of Bayesian inference tasks, and set a new state-of-the-art PSNR in black hole image reconstruction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Advances in Diffusion-Based Generative Compression

Popularized by their strong image generation performance, diffusion and related methods for generative modeling have found widespread success in visual media applications. In particular, diffusion methods have enabled new approaches to data compression, where realistic reconstructions can be generated at extremely low bit-rates. This article provides a unifying review of recent diffusion-based methods for generative lossy compression, with a focus on image compression. These methods generally encode the source into an embedding and employ a diffusion model to iteratively refine it in the decoding procedure, such that the final reconstruction approximately follows the ground truth data distribution. The embedding can take various forms and is typically transmitted via an auxiliary entropy model, and recent methods also explore the use of diffusion models themselves for information transmission via channel simulation. We review representative approaches through the lens of rate-distortion-perception theory, highlighting the role of common randomness and connections to inverse problems, and identify open challenges.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2025

Parallel Token Prediction for Language Models

Autoregressive decoding in language models is inherently slow, generating only one token per forward pass. We propose Parallel Token Prediction (PTP), a general-purpose framework for predicting multiple tokens in a single model call. PTP moves the source of randomness from post-hoc sampling to random input variables, making future tokens deterministic functions of those inputs and thus jointly predictable in a single forward pass. We prove that a single PTP call can represent arbitrary dependencies between tokens. PTP is trained by distilling an existing model or through inverse autoregressive training without a teacher. Experimentally, PTP achieves a 2.4x speedup on a diverse-task speculative decoding benchmark. We provide code and checkpoints at https://github.com/mandt-lab/ptp.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

UMAMI: Unifying Masked Autoregressive Models and Deterministic Rendering for View Synthesis

Novel view synthesis (NVS) seeks to render photorealistic, 3D-consistent images of a scene from unseen camera poses given only a sparse set of posed views. Existing deterministic networks render observed regions quickly but blur unobserved areas, whereas stochastic diffusion-based methods hallucinate plausible content yet incur heavy training- and inference-time costs. In this paper, we propose a hybrid framework that unifies the strengths of both paradigms. A bidirectional transformer encodes multi-view image tokens and Plucker-ray embeddings, producing a shared latent representation. Two lightweight heads then act on this representation: (i) a feed-forward regression head that renders pixels where geometry is well constrained, and (ii) a masked autoregressive diffusion head that completes occluded or unseen regions. The entire model is trained end-to-end with joint photometric and diffusion losses, without handcrafted 3D inductive biases, enabling scalability across diverse scenes. Experiments demonstrate that our method attains state-of-the-art image quality while reducing rendering time by an order of magnitude compared with fully generative baselines.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Technical Report: Towards Unified Diffusion Models for Multi-Model Climate Emulation at Scale

Large ensembles of climate projections are essential for characterizing uncertainty in future climate and extreme weather events, yet computational constraints of numerical climate models limit ensemble sizes to a small number of realizations per model. We present a unified conditional diffusion model that dramatically reduces this computational barrier by learning shared distributional patterns across multiple Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 models and emission scenarios. Rather than training separate emulators for each model-scenario combination, our approach captures the common statistical structures underlying nine CMIP6 models, generating daily temperature maps with a global coverage for historical and future periods. This unified framework enables: (i) efficient probabilistic sampling for comprehensive uncertainty quantification across models and scenarios; (ii) rapid generation of large ensembles that would be computationally intractable with traditional climate models; (iii) variance-reduced treatment effect analysis via fixed-seed generation that disentangles forced climate responses from internal variability. Evaluations on held-out models demonstrate reliable generalization to unseen future climates, enabling rapid exploration of different emission pathways.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

On the Effect of Regularization on Nonparametric Mean-Variance Regression

Uncertainty quantification is vital for decision-making and risk assessment in machine learning. Mean-variance regression models, which predict both a mean and residual noise for each data point, provide a simple approach to uncertainty quantification. However, overparameterized mean-variance models struggle with signal-to-noise ambiguity, deciding whether prediction targets should be attributed to signal (mean) or noise (variance). At one extreme, models fit all training targets perfectly with zero residual noise, while at the other, they provide constant, uninformative predictions and explain the targets as noise. We observe a sharp phase transition between these extremes, driven by model regularization. Empirical studies with varying regularization levels illustrate this transition, revealing substantial variability across repeated runs. To explain this behavior, we develop a statistical field theory framework, which captures the observed phase transition in alignment with experimental results. This analysis reduces the regularization hyperparameter search space from two dimensions to one, significantly lowering computational costs. Experiments on UCI datasets and the large-scale ClimSim dataset demonstrate robust calibration performance, effectively quantifying predictive uncertainty.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Structure is Supervision: Multiview Masked Autoencoders for Radiology

Building robust medical machine learning systems requires pretraining strategies that exploit the intrinsic structure present in clinical data. We introduce Multiview Masked Autoencoder (MVMAE), a self-supervised framework that leverages the natural multi-view organization of radiology studies to learn view-invariant and disease-relevant representations. MVMAE combines masked image reconstruction with cross-view alignment, transforming clinical redundancy across projections into a powerful self-supervisory signal. We further extend this approach with MVMAE-V2T, which incorporates radiology reports as an auxiliary text-based learning signal to enhance semantic grounding while preserving fully vision-based inference. Evaluated on a downstream disease classification task on three large-scale public datasets, MIMIC-CXR, CheXpert, and PadChest, MVMAE consistently outperforms supervised and vision-language baselines. Furthermore, MVMAE-V2T provides additional gains, particularly in low-label regimes where structured textual supervision is most beneficial. Together, these results establish the importance of structural and textual supervision as complementary paths toward scalable, clinically grounded medical foundation models.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

GeoDiff: Geometry-Guided Diffusion for Metric Depth Estimation

We introduce a novel framework for metric depth estimation that enhances pretrained diffusion-based monocular depth estimation (DB-MDE) models with stereo vision guidance. While existing DB-MDE methods excel at predicting relative depth, estimating absolute metric depth remains challenging due to scale ambiguities in single-image scenarios. To address this, we reframe depth estimation as an inverse problem, leveraging pretrained latent diffusion models (LDMs) conditioned on RGB images, combined with stereo-based geometric constraints, to learn scale and shift for accurate depth recovery. Our training-free solution seamlessly integrates into existing DB-MDE frameworks and generalizes across indoor, outdoor, and complex environments. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach matches or surpasses state-of-the-art methods, particularly in challenging scenarios involving translucent and specular surfaces, all without requiring retraining.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Formally Exploring Time-Series Anomaly Detection Evaluation Metrics

Undetected anomalies in time series can trigger catastrophic failures in safety-critical systems, such as chemical plant explosions or power grid outages. Although many detection methods have been proposed, their performance remains unclear because current metrics capture only narrow aspects of the task and often yield misleading results. We address this issue by introducing verifiable properties that formalize essential requirements for evaluating time-series anomaly detection. These properties enable a theoretical framework that supports principled evaluations and reliable comparisons. Analyzing 37 widely used metrics, we show that most satisfy only a few properties, and none satisfy all, explaining persistent inconsistencies in prior results. To close this gap, we propose LARM, a flexible metric that provably satisfies all properties, and extend it to ALARM, an advanced variant meeting stricter requirements.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

DiffStyleTS: Diffusion Model for Style Transfer in Time Series

Style transfer combines the content of one signal with the style of another. It supports applications such as data augmentation and scenario simulation, helping machine learning models generalize in data-scarce domains. While well developed in vision and language, style transfer methods for time series data remain limited. We introduce DiffTSST, a diffusion-based framework that disentangles a time series into content and style representations via convolutional encoders and recombines them through a self-supervised attention-based diffusion process. At inference, encoders extract content and style from two distinct series, enabling conditional generation of novel samples to achieve style transfer. We demonstrate both qualitatively and quantitatively that DiffTSST achieves effective style transfer. We further validate its real-world utility by showing that data augmentation with DiffTSST improves anomaly detection in data-scarce regimes.

cs.LG↗