arXiv subjects

Stephan Mandt

Publications and source records attributed to Stephan Mandt.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

GeoDiff: Geometry-Guided Diffusion for Metric Depth Estimation

We introduce a novel framework for metric depth estimation that enhances pretrained diffusion-based monocular depth estimation (DB-MDE) models with stereo vision guidance. While existing DB-MDE methods excel at predicting relative depth, estimating absolute metric depth remains challenging due to scale ambiguities in single-image scenarios. To address this, we reframe depth estimation as an inverse problem, leveraging pretrained latent diffusion models (LDMs) conditioned on RGB images, combined with stereo-based geometric constraints, to learn scale and shift for accurate depth recovery. Our training-free solution seamlessly integrates into existing DB-MDE frameworks and generalizes across indoor, outdoor, and complex environments. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach matches or surpasses state-of-the-art methods, particularly in challenging scenarios involving translucent and specular surfaces, all without requiring retraining.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Formally Exploring Time-Series Anomaly Detection Evaluation Metrics

Undetected anomalies in time series can trigger catastrophic failures in safety-critical systems, such as chemical plant explosions or power grid outages. Although many detection methods have been proposed, their performance remains unclear because current metrics capture only narrow aspects of the task and often yield misleading results. We address this issue by introducing verifiable properties that formalize essential requirements for evaluating time-series anomaly detection. These properties enable a theoretical framework that supports principled evaluations and reliable comparisons. Analyzing 37 widely used metrics, we show that most satisfy only a few properties, and none satisfy all, explaining persistent inconsistencies in prior results. To close this gap, we propose LARM, a flexible metric that provably satisfies all properties, and extend it to ALARM, an advanced variant meeting stricter requirements.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

DiffStyleTS: Diffusion Model for Style Transfer in Time Series

Style transfer combines the content of one signal with the style of another. It supports applications such as data augmentation and scenario simulation, helping machine learning models generalize in data-scarce domains. While well developed in vision and language, style transfer methods for time series data remain limited. We introduce DiffTSST, a diffusion-based framework that disentangles a time series into content and style representations via convolutional encoders and recombines them through a self-supervised attention-based diffusion process. At inference, encoders extract content and style from two distinct series, enabling conditional generation of novel samples to achieve style transfer. We demonstrate both qualitatively and quantitatively that DiffTSST achieves effective style transfer. We further validate its real-world utility by showing that data augmentation with DiffTSST improves anomaly detection in data-scarce regimes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

On the Challenges and Opportunities in Generative AI

The field of deep generative modeling has grown rapidly in the last few years. With the availability of massive amounts of training data coupled with advances in scalable unsupervised learning paradigms, recent large-scale generative models show tremendous promise in synthesizing high-resolution images and text, as well as structured data such as videos and molecules. However, we argue that current large-scale generative AI models exhibit several fundamental shortcomings that hinder their widespread adoption across domains. In this work, our objective is to identify these issues and highlight key unresolved challenges in modern generative AI paradigms that should be addressed to further enhance their capabilities, versatility, and reliability. By identifying these challenges, we aim to provide researchers with insights for exploring fruitful research directions, thus fostering the development of more robust and accessible generative AI solutions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Transferring climate change physical knowledge

Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and feedbacks, yet those methods cannot capture the nonlinear complexity inherent in the climate system. Using a Transfer Learning approach, we show that Machine Learning can be used to optimally leverage and merge the knowledge gained from global temperature maps simulated by Earth system models and observed in the historical period to reduce the spread of global surface air temperature fields projected in the 21st century. We reach an uncertainty reduction of more than 50% with respect to state-of-the-art approaches while giving evidence that our method provides improved regional temperature patterns together with narrower projections uncertainty, urgently required for climate adaptation.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

One Diffusion to Generate Them All

We introduce OneDiffusion, a versatile, large-scale diffusion model that seamlessly supports bidirectional image synthesis and understanding across diverse tasks. It enables conditional generation from inputs such as text, depth, pose, layout, and semantic maps, while also handling tasks like image deblurring, upscaling, and reverse processes such as depth estimation and segmentation. Additionally, OneDiffusion allows for multi-view generation, camera pose estimation, and instant personalization using sequential image inputs. Our model takes a straightforward yet effective approach by treating all tasks as frame sequences with varying noise scales during training, allowing any frame to act as a conditioning image at inference time. Our unified training framework removes the need for specialized architectures, supports scalable multi-task training, and adapts smoothly to any resolution, enhancing both generalization and scalability. Experimental results demonstrate competitive performance across tasks in both generation and prediction such as text-to-image, multiview generation, ID preservation, depth estimation and camera pose estimation despite relatively small training dataset. Our code and checkpoint are freely available at https://github.com/lehduong/OneDiffusion

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Generative Uncertainty in Diffusion Models

Diffusion models have recently driven significant breakthroughs in generative modeling. While state-of-the-art models produce high-quality samples on average, individual samples can still be low quality. Detecting such samples without human inspection remains a challenging task. To address this, we propose a Bayesian framework for estimating generative uncertainty of synthetic samples. We outline how to make Bayesian inference practical for large, modern generative models and introduce a new semantic likelihood (evaluated in the latent space of a feature extractor) to address the challenges posed by high-dimensional sample spaces. Through our experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed generative uncertainty effectively identifies poor-quality samples and significantly outperforms existing uncertainty-based methods. Notably, our Bayesian framework can be applied post-hoc to any pretrained diffusion or flow matching model (via the Laplace approximation), and we propose simple yet effective techniques to minimize its computational overhead during sampling.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

AstroCompress: A benchmark dataset for multi-purpose compression of astronomical data

The site conditions that make astronomical observatories in space and on the ground so desirable -- cold and dark -- demand a physical remoteness that leads to limited data transmission capabilities. Such transmission limitations directly bottleneck the amount of data acquired and in an era of costly modern observatories, any improvements in lossless data compression has the potential scale to billions of dollars worth of additional science that can be accomplished on the same instrument. Traditional lossless methods for compressing astrophysical data are manually designed. Neural data compression, on the other hand, holds the promise of learning compression algorithms end-to-end from data and outperforming classical techniques by leveraging the unique spatial, temporal, and wavelength structures of astronomical images. This paper introduces AstroCompress: a neural compression challenge for astrophysics data, featuring four new datasets (and one legacy dataset) with 16-bit unsigned integer imaging data in various modes: space-based, ground-based, multi-wavelength, and time-series imaging. We provide code to easily access the data and benchmark seven lossless compression methods (three neural and four non-neural, including all practical state-of-the-art algorithms). Our results on lossless compression indicate that lossless neural compression techniques can enhance data collection at observatories, and provide guidance on the adoption of neural compression in scientific applications. Though the scope of this paper is restricted to lossless compression, we also comment on the potential exploration of lossy compression methods in future studies.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

JANET: Joint Adaptive predictioN-region Estimation for Time-series

Conformal prediction provides machine learning models with prediction sets that offer theoretical guarantees, but the underlying assumption of exchangeability limits its applicability to time series data. Furthermore, existing approaches struggle to handle multi-step ahead prediction tasks, where uncertainty estimates across multiple future time points are crucial. We propose JANET (Joint Adaptive predictioN-region Estimation for Time-series), a novel framework for constructing conformal prediction regions that are valid for both univariate and multivariate time series. JANET generalises the inductive conformal framework and efficiently produces joint prediction regions with controlled K-familywise error rates, enabling flexible adaptation to specific application needs. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates JANET's superior performance in multi-step prediction tasks across diverse time series datasets, highlighting its potential for reliable and interpretable uncertainty quantification in sequential data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

SetPINNs: Set-based Physics-informed Neural Networks

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) solve partial differential equations using deep learning. However, conventional PINNs perform pointwise predictions that neglect dependencies within a domain, which may result in suboptimal solutions. We introduce SetPINNs, a framework that effectively captures local dependencies. With a finite element-inspired sampling scheme, we partition the domain into sets to model local dependencies while simultaneously enforcing physical laws. We provide a rigorous theoretical analysis showing that SetPINNs yield unbiased, lower-variance estimates of residual energy and its gradients, ensuring improved domain coverage and reduced residual error. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world tasks show improved accuracy, efficiency, and robustness.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Variational Control for Guidance in Diffusion Models

Diffusion models exhibit excellent sample quality, but existing guidance methods often require additional model training or are limited to specific tasks. We revisit guidance in diffusion models from the perspective of variational inference and control, introducing Diffusion Trajectory Matching (DTM) that enables guiding pretrained diffusion trajectories to satisfy a terminal cost. DTM unifies a broad class of guidance methods and enables novel instantiations. We introduce a new method within this framework that achieves state-of-the-art results on several linear, non-linear, and blind inverse problems without requiring additional model training or specificity to pixel or latent space diffusion models. Our code will be available at https://github.com/czi-ai/oc-guidance

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Diffusion-Guided Gaussian Splatting for Large-Scale Unconstrained 3D Reconstruction and Novel View Synthesis

Recent advancements in 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) and Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) have achieved impressive results in real-time 3D reconstruction and novel view synthesis. However, these methods struggle in large-scale, unconstrained environments where sparse and uneven input coverage, transient occlusions, appearance variability, and inconsistent camera settings lead to degraded quality. We propose GS-Diff, a novel 3DGS framework guided by a multi-view diffusion model to address these limitations. By generating pseudo-observations conditioned on multi-view inputs, our method transforms under-constrained 3D reconstruction problems into well-posed ones, enabling robust optimization even with sparse data. GS-Diff further integrates several enhancements, including appearance embedding, monocular depth priors, dynamic object modeling, anisotropy regularization, and advanced rasterization techniques, to tackle geometric and photometric challenges in real-world settings. Experiments on four benchmarks demonstrate that GS-Diff consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines by significant margins.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Unity by Diversity: Improved Representation Learning in Multimodal VAEs

Variational Autoencoders for multimodal data hold promise for many tasks in data analysis, such as representation learning, conditional generation, and imputation. Current architectures either share the encoder output, decoder input, or both across modalities to learn a shared representation. Such architectures impose hard constraints on the model. In this work, we show that a better latent representation can be obtained by replacing these hard constraints with a soft constraint. We propose a new mixture-of-experts prior, softly guiding each modality's latent representation towards a shared aggregate posterior. This approach results in a superior latent representation and allows each encoding to preserve information better from its uncompressed original features. In extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets and two challenging real-world datasets, we show improved learned latent representations and imputation of missing data modalities compared to existing methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Progressive Compression with Universally Quantized Diffusion Models

Diffusion probabilistic models have achieved mainstream success in many generative modeling tasks, from image generation to inverse problem solving. A distinct feature of these models is that they correspond to deep hierarchical latent variable models optimizing a variational evidence lower bound (ELBO) on the data likelihood. Drawing on a basic connection between likelihood modeling and compression, we explore the potential of diffusion models for progressive coding, resulting in a sequence of bits that can be incrementally transmitted and decoded with progressively improving reconstruction quality. Unlike prior work based on Gaussian diffusion or conditional diffusion models, we propose a new form of diffusion model with uniform noise in the forward process, whose negative ELBO corresponds to the end-to-end compression cost using universal quantization. We obtain promising first results on image compression, achieving competitive rate-distortion and rate-realism results on a wide range of bit-rates with a single model, bringing neural codecs a step closer to practical deployment.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Weakly-Supervised Multimodal Learning on MIMIC-CXR

Multimodal data integration and label scarcity pose significant challenges for machine learning in medical settings. To address these issues, we conduct an in-depth evaluation of the newly proposed Multimodal Variational Mixture-of-Experts (MMVM) VAE on the challenging MIMIC-CXR dataset. Our analysis demonstrates that the MMVM VAE consistently outperforms other multimodal VAEs and fully supervised approaches, highlighting its strong potential for real-world medical applications.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Fast Samplers for Inverse Problems in Iterative Refinement Models

Constructing fast samplers for unconditional diffusion and flow-matching models has received much attention recently; however, existing methods for solving inverse problems, such as super-resolution, inpainting, or deblurring, still require hundreds to thousands of iterative steps to obtain high-quality results. We propose a plug-and-play framework for constructing efficient samplers for inverse problems, requiring only pre-trained diffusion or flow-matching models. We present Conditional Conjugate Integrators, which leverage the specific form of the inverse problem to project the respective conditional diffusion/flow dynamics into a more amenable space for sampling. Our method complements popular posterior approximation methods for solving inverse problems using diffusion/flow models. We evaluate the proposed method's performance on various linear image restoration tasks across multiple datasets, employing diffusion and flow-matching models. Notably, on challenging inverse problems like 4x super-resolution on the ImageNet dataset, our method can generate high-quality samples in as few as 5 conditional sampling steps and outperforms competing baselines requiring 20-1000 steps. Our code will be publicly available at https://github.com/mandt-lab/c-pigdm

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Heavy-Tailed Diffusion Models

Diffusion models achieve state-of-the-art generation quality across many applications, but their ability to capture rare or extreme events in heavy-tailed distributions remains unclear. In this work, we show that traditional diffusion and flow-matching models with standard Gaussian priors fail to capture heavy-tailed behavior. We address this by repurposing the diffusion framework for heavy-tail estimation using multivariate Student-t distributions. We develop a tailored perturbation kernel and derive the denoising posterior based on the conditional Student-t distribution for the backward process. Inspired by $γ$-divergence for heavy-tailed distributions, we derive a training objective for heavy-tailed denoisers. The resulting framework introduces controllable tail generation using only a single scalar hyperparameter, making it easily tunable for diverse real-world distributions. As specific instantiations of our framework, we introduce t-EDM and t-Flow, extensions of existing diffusion and flow models that employ a Student-t prior. Remarkably, our approach is readily compatible with standard Gaussian diffusion models and requires only minimal code changes. Empirically, we show that our t-EDM and t-Flow outperform standard diffusion models in heavy-tail estimation on high-resolution weather datasets in which generating rare and extreme events is crucial.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Position: Bayesian Deep Learning is Needed in the Age of Large-Scale AI

In the current landscape of deep learning research, there is a predominant emphasis on achieving high predictive accuracy in supervised tasks involving large image and language datasets. However, a broader perspective reveals a multitude of overlooked metrics, tasks, and data types, such as uncertainty, active and continual learning, and scientific data, that demand attention. Bayesian deep learning (BDL) constitutes a promising avenue, offering advantages across these diverse settings. This paper posits that BDL can elevate the capabilities of deep learning. It revisits the strengths of BDL, acknowledges existing challenges, and highlights some exciting research avenues aimed at addressing these obstacles. Looking ahead, the discussion focuses on possible ways to combine large-scale foundation models with BDL to unlock their full potential.

cs.LG↗