arXiv subjects

Stephen R. Kane

Publications and source records attributed to Stephen R. Kane.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

Smaller Than Earth Habitability Model (STEHM): The Lower Size Limit for Atmosphere Retention in the Habitable Zone

With recent advances in exoplanet observational techniques enabling the discovery of increasingly smaller planets, a crucial question emerges in the search for habitable planets: how small can a planet be and still maintain an atmosphere? We present results from the Smaller Than Earth Habitability Model (STEHM) which examines how small a planet can be and still maintain a long-term (multi-gigayear) atmosphere for planets from 1.0$R_\oplus$ down to 0.5$R_\oplus$. The model is based on a stagnant lid planet orbiting within the habitable zone of a sun-like star. Our model demonstrates that planets $\geq$0.8$R_\oplus$ can maintain their atmospheres under our Earth-like default conditions for a solar analog star, while smaller planets lose their atmospheres. Variations from the default Earth-like values cause mostly minor variations to the planet size boundary results, with some changes allowing $\geq$0.7$R_\oplus$ planets to maintain their atmosphere. Initial carbon inventory emerges as the most influential parameter for atmospheric retention, though orders of magnitude difference to Earth values are required to make a significant difference to longevity of atmospheric retention. Planets with substantial initial carbon content, large amounts of heat producing elements, cool initial mantle temperatures and low core radius fractions show the best atmospheric retention capabilities. Our results indicate that atmospheric retention on small planets depends strongly on their formation conditions and early evolution, providing important constraints for future observations of rocky exoplanets and their potential habitability.

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arXiv2026

Hic Sunt Dracones: Uncovering Dynamical Perturbers Within the Habitable Zone

The continuing exploration of neighboring planetary systems is providing deeper insights into the relative prevalence of various system architectures, particularly with respect to the solar system. However, a full assessment of the dynamical feasibility of possible terrestrial planets within the Habitable Zones (HZ) of nearby stars requires detailed knowledge of the masses and orbital solutions of any known planets within these systems. Moreover, the presence of as yet undetected planets in or near the HZ will be crucial for providing a robust target list for future direct imaging surveys. In this work, we quantify the distribution of uncertainties on planetary masses and semi-major axes for 1062 confirmed planets, finding median uncertainties of 11.1% and 2.2%, respectively. We show the dependence of these uncertainties on stellar mass and orbital period, and discuss the effects of these uncertainties on dynamical analyses and the locations of mean motion resonance. We also calculate the expected radial velocity (RV) semi-amplitude for a Neptune-mass planet in the middle of the HZ for each of the proposed Habitable Worlds Observatory target stars. We find that for more than half of these stars, the RV semi-amplitude is less than 1.5 m/s, rendering them unlikely to be detected in archival RV data sets and highlighting the need for further observations to understand the dynamical viability of the HZ for these systems. We provide specific recommendations regarding stellar characterization and RV survey strategies that work toward the detection of presently unseen perturbers within the HZ.

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arXiv2026

Imaging Venus-like Worlds: Spectral, Polarimetric, and UV Diagnostics for the Habitable Worlds Observatory

Understanding planetary habitability requires a comparative approach that explores the divergent evolutionary outcomes of Earth and Venus. The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) will be uniquely positioned to conduct a statistical and physical census of terrestrial exoplanets spanning the Venus Zone (VZ) and the Habitable Zone (HZ), enabling the detection and atmospheric characterization of post-runaway greenhouse worlds (``exoVenuses''). We present an updated list of VZ exoplanets, which raises the number of known candidates to 370. We describe a science case and an observing strategy for VZ exoplanets that integrates precursor exoplanet detection data and stellar characterization with HWO direct imaging, spectroscopy across the UV/optical/IR, and spectropolarimetry. Our proposed framework emphasizes a pathway toward the diagnosis of sulfur chemistry (SO$_2$) and aerosol physics (H$_2$SO$_4$ clouds/hazes), planetary redox states (O$_2$/O$_3$ false positives from hydrogen loss), and cloud microphysics detection (rainbow polarization). We quantify implications for HWO requirements, including UV access to 0.2--0.4 $μ$m, optical/NIR coverage to $\gtrsim$1.5 $μ$m, inner working angle (IWA) reaching 0.3--1.5 AU around nearby Sun-like stars, and the SNR/resolution needed for key features. Finally, we outline a community-driven path to producing robust demographic inferences and target selection for optimizing HWO observations.

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arXiv2026

RV$\times$TESS I: Modeling Asteroseismic Signals with Simultaneous Photometry and RVs

Detecting small planets via the radial velocity method remains challenged by signals induced by stellar variability, versus the effects of the planet(s). Here, we explore using Gaussian Process (GP) regression with Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) photometry in modeling radial velocities (RVs) to help to mitigate stellar jitter from oscillations and granulation for exoplanet detection. We applied GP regression to simultaneous TESS photometric and RV data of HD 5562, a G-type subgiant ($M_\star=1.09M_{\odot}$, $R_\star=1.88R_{\odot}$) with a V magnitude of 7.17, using photometry to inform the priors for RV fitting. The RV data is obtained by the Magellan Planet Finder Spectrograph (PFS). The photometry-informed GP regression reduced the RV scatter of HD~5562 from 2.03 to 0.51 m/s. We performed injection and recovery tests to evaluate the potential of GPs for discovering small exoplanets around evolved stars, which demonstrate that the GP provides comparable noise reduction to the binning method. We also found that the necessity of photometric data depends on the quality of the RV dataset. For long baseline and high-cadence RV observations, GP regression can effectively mitigate stellar jitter without photometric data. However, for intermittent RV observations, incorporating photometric data improves GP fitting and enhances detection capabilities.

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arXiv2025

The Dependence of Earth Milankovitch Cycles on Martian Mass

The Milankovitch cycles of Earth result from gravitational interactions with other bodies in the Solar System. These interactions lead to slow changes in the orbit and angular momentum vector of Earth, and correspondingly influence Earth's climate evolution. Several studies have shown that Mars may play a significant role in these Milankovitch cycles, such as the 2.4 Myr eccentricity cycle related to perihelion precession dynamics. Here we provide the results of a detailed dynamical analysis that explores the Earth Milankovitch cycles as a function of the Martian mass to quantify the extent that Mars influences variations in Earth's orbital eccentricity, the longitude of perihelion, the longitude of the ascending node, and obliquity (axial tilt). Our results show that, although the 405 kyr long-eccentricity metronome driven by $g_2$ (Venus) and $g_5$ (Jupiter) persists at all Mars masses, the $\sim$100 kyr short-eccentricity bands driven by $g_4$ (Mars) lengthen and gain power as Mars becomes more massive, consistent with enhanced coupling among inner-planet $g$-modes. The 2.4 Myr grand cycle is absent when Mars approaches zero mass, reflecting the movement of $g_4$ with the Martian mass. Meanwhile, Earth's obliquity cycles driven by $s_3$ (Earth) and $s_4$ (Mars) lengthen from the canonical $\sim$41 kyr with increasing Mars mass, relocating to a dominant 45--55 kyr band when the mass of Mars is an order of magnitude larger than its present value. These results establish how Mars' mass controls the architecture of Earth's climate-forcing spectrum and that the Milankovitch spectrum of an Earth-like planet is a sensitive, interpretable probe of its planetary neighborhood.

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arXiv2025

SPORES-HWO. II. Companion Mass Limits and Updated Planet Properties for 120 Future Exoplanet Imaging Targets from 35 yr of Precise Doppler Monitoring

A goal of the future Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) is to directly image and spectroscopically characterize true Earth-analogs. However, if a large fraction of HWO target stars host unknown dynamically disruptive giant planets in their habitable zones (HZs), then additional targets that are farther away will need to be surveyed, potentially requiring a larger-aperture telescope and a coronagraph with a smaller inner working angle. Therefore, the sooner we constrain the presence of massive planets orbiting potential HWO target stars, the easier and less costly it will be to adjust key aspects of HWO's architecture. In this work, we uniformly analyze over 153,000 public radial velocity (RV) observations of 120 potential HWO target stars to derive mass limits on planetary companions. The RVs were measured by 23 spectrographs located at 15 observatories around the world, with the first observations going back to 1987. Based on empirical search completeness tests, we determine that undetected Jupiter-mass (Saturn-mass) planets may be hiding in up to 38% (53%) of the HZs of targets in the ExEP Mission Star List. The median mass sensitivity limit in the middle of the conservative HZ is approximately 48 $\rm M_\oplus$. We also provide updated parameters for 53 known companions, and we detect at least 26 additional RV signals corresponding to stellar activity and 4 signals that are planet candidates. We note that 44 of the ExEP stars lack substantial RV monitoring history, and we advocate for community-coordinated observing campaigns of these stars using moderate-precision RV facilities.

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arXiv2025

Planetary Habitability Under the Light of a Rapidly Changing Star

Planetary atmospheric energy budgets primarily depend on stellar incident flux. However, stellar variability can have major consequences for the evolution of planetary climates. In this work, we evaluate how stellar variability influences the equilibrium temperature and water retention of planets within the Habitable Zone (HZ). We present a sample of 9 stars that are known to host at least one planet within the HZ and that were identified to have a variability amplitude exceeding 100 ppm based on photometry from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). We investigate the effect that the variability of these stars have on the insolation flux of their HZ planets and the resulting changes in the induced planetary equilibrium temperature. Our results show that for the stars in our sample, the stellar variability has an insignificant effect on the equilibrium temperature of HZ planets. However, we also emphasize that these stars are not representative of more extreme variable stars, since exoplanets are more difficult to detect and characterize in the presence of extreme variability. We also investigate the equilibrium temperature and long-term evolution of a hypothetical Earth-like planet placed at the inner edge of the HZ around a highly variable star. We found that the water loss rates are comparable between both variable and quiet host stars for Earth-like planets in the inner HZ. Overall, these results broaden our knowledge on the impact of stellar variability on planetary habitability.

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arXiv2025

The Dynamical Environment within the Habitable Zone of the Gaia-4 and Gaia-5 Planetary Systems

Exoplanetary systems exhibit a broad range of architectures which, in turn, enable a variety of dynamical environments. Many of the known planetary systems do not transit the host star, and so we measure the minimum masses of their planets, making it difficult to fully assess the dynamical environment within the system. Astrometry can resolve the mass ambiguity and thus allow a more complete dynamical analysis of systems to be conducted. Gaia-4 and Gaia-5 are two such systems, whose study with radial velocities and data from the Gaia mission revealed that each star harbors a massive planet on a highly eccentric orbit. In this work, we provide the results of a dynamical analysis of each system, including calculations of the Habitable Zone (HZ), from which we show that the presence of the known companions largely exclude the presence of planets within the HZ. We discuss the diagnostics of potential past planet-planet scattering events, and the occurrence of similar systems whereby a giant planet on an eccentric orbit can substantially disrupt orbital integrity of terrestrial planets. These "wrecking ball" systems have an impact on the target selection for planned direct imaging missions that seek to identify potentially habitable environments.

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arXiv2025

Radial Velocity Strategies for the Orbital Refinement of Exoplanet Direct Imaging Targets

Many potential direct imaging candidates suffer from large orbital period uncertainties, leading to challenges in accurate predictions of future orbital positions and imprecise direct imaging measurements of planetary parameters. To improve the precision in orbital properties, precursor radial velocity (RV) follow-up observations for selected candidates are essential. This study examines the impact of three variables on the orbital period uncertainties of long-period giant planets: the number of future observations, the temporal gap between past and future data, and the temporal coverage of upcoming observations. Our simulations indicate that the orbital phases at which future RV observations are acquired play a significant role in reducing period uncertainties. Additionally, observing too frequently within a given time frame adds limited value to the program once a certain number of observations has been achieved. The temporal gap proves to be the most important factor when there is no strict end time to the observing campaign. However, if a strict end time is set, starting observations earlier yields improved reductions in orbital period uncertainty. These insights offer practical guidance for planning efficient RV follow-up campaigns to maximize the science yield of future space-based direct imaging missions.

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arXiv2025

No Giant Planets in the Eta Cassiopeiae System: Dynamical Implications of a Wide Binary Companion

Given the vast number of stars that exist within binary systems, it remains important to explore the effect of binary star environments on the formation and evolution of exoplanetary systems. Nearby binaries provide opportunities to characterize their properties and orbits through a combination of radial velocities, astrometry, and direct imaging. Eta Cassiopeiae is a bright, well-known binary system for which recent observations have provided greatly improved stellar masses and orbital parameters. We present additional radial velocity data that are used to perform an injection-recovery analysis for potential planetary signatures. We further provide a detailed dynamical study that explores the viability of planetary orbits throughout the system. Our combined analysis shows that giant planets are significantly ruled out for the system, and indeed no planetary orbits are viable beyond $\sim$8 AU of the primary star. However, terrestrial planets may yet exist within the Habitable Zone where orbits can remain long-term stable. We discuss the implications of these results, highlighting the effect of wide binary companions on giant planet formation, and the consequences for occurrence rates and planetary habitability.

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arXiv2025

The Spin-orbit alignment of two short period eclipsing binary systems

We present a joint analysis of TESS photometry and radial velocity measurements obtained from the Minerva-Australis facility for two short-period eclipsing binaries, TIC 48227288 and TIC 339607421. TIC 339607421 hosts an M-dwarf companion ($M_B = 0.294 \pm 0.013 \: M_{\odot}$, $R_B = 0.291 \pm 0.006 \: R_{\odot}$) orbiting an F6V star ($M_A=1.09 \pm 0.04 \: M_{\odot}$, $R_A=1.21^{+0.03}_{-0.02} \: R_{\odot}$). While TIC 48227288 contains a late K class companion ($M_B=0.635 \pm 0.037 \: M_{\odot}$, $R_B = 0.605 \pm 0.011 \: R_{\odot}$) orbiting an F3V star ($M_A = 1.36^{+0.06}_{-0.08} \: M_{\odot}$, $R_A = 1.61 \pm 0.03 \: R_{\odot}$). Both companions follow short period, near-circular orbits ($P_B = 2.4-3.0$ d, $e \approx 0.001$). Sky-projected obliquities for each system were derived using a classical analysis of the RV perturbation and the Reloaded Rossiter-McLaughlin (RRM) technique. The classical method indicates minor spin-orbit misalignment for both systems ($λ_A = -14.7^{+5.4}_{-5.9}$ deg and $-17.8^{+1.9}_{-2.0}$ deg for TIC 339607421 and TIC 48227288, respectively). The RRM analysis yields smaller obliquities ($λ_A = -8.2 \pm 0.2$ deg and $-9.5 \pm 0.2$ deg respectively), but confirms the minor misalignment inferred from the classical analysis. The findings of misaligned, circular orbits are notable even though the misalignments are not large, and suggest potential gaps in current models of binary formation and orbital evolution. As such, further investigation of these and similar systems appears warranted.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

Requirements for Joint Orbital Characterization of Cold Giants and Habitable Worlds with Habitable Worlds Observatory

We determine optimal requirements for the joint detection of habitable-zone planets and cold giant planets with the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO). Analysis of 164 nearby stars shows that a coronagraph outer working angle (OWA) of 1440 milliarcseconds (mas) is necessary to achieve 80-90% visibility of cold giants. Approximately 40 precursor radial velocity measurements with 1 m/s precision are required to adequately constrain orbital parameters before HWO observations. We demonstrate that 6-8 astrometric measurements distributed across the mission timeline, compared to radial velocity constraints alone and to astrometry constraints alone, significantly improve orbital parameter precision, enabling direct determination of orbital inclination with uncertainties of 0.8-3 degrees. For habitable-zone planet characterization, 4-5 epochs provide moderate confidence, while high-confidence (95%) confirmation requires 8+ observations. These specifications are essential for the comprehensive characterization of planetary system architectures and understanding the potential habitability of terrestrial exoplanets.

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arXiv2025

Seasonal Changes in the Atmosphere of HD 80606b Observed with JWST's NIRSpec/G395H

High-eccentricity gas giant planets serve as unique laboratories for studying the thermal and chemical properties of H/He-dominated atmospheres. One of the most extreme cases is HD 80606b -- a hot Jupiter orbiting a sun-like star with an eccentricity of $0.93$ -- which experiences an increase in incident flux of nearly three orders of magnitude as the star-planet separation decreases from $0.88\,{\rm AU}$ at apoastron to $0.03\,{\rm AU}$ at periastron. We observed the planet's periastron passage using \emph{JWST}'s NIRSpec/G395H instrument ($2.8-5.2\,{\rm μm}$) during a $21\,{\rm hr}$ window centered on the eclipse. We find that, as the planet passes through periastron, its emission spectrum transitions from a featureless blackbody to one in which CO, CH$_4$, and H$_2$O absorption features are visible. We detect CH$_4$ during post-periapse phases at $4.1-10.7σ$ depending on the phase and on whether a flux offset is included to account for NRS1 detector systematics. Following periapse, H$_2$O and CO are also detected at $4.2-5.5σ$ and $3.7-4.4σ$, respectively. Furthermore, we rule out the presence of a strong temperature inversion near the IR photosphere based on the lack of obvious emission features throughout the observing window. General circulation models had predicted an inversion during periapse passage. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of studying hot Jupiter atmospheres using partial phase curves obtained with NIRSpec/G395H.

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arXiv2025

A Statistical Method for Constraining the Capability of the Habitable Worlds Observatory to Understand Ozone Onset Time in Earth Analogs

The oxygenation of Earth's atmosphere 2.3 billion years ago, which on exoplanets is expected to be most detectable via the UV ozone feature at $\sim$0.25 $μ$m, is often regarded as a sign of the emergence of photosynthetic life. On exoplanets, we may similarly expect life to oxygenate the atmosphere, but with a characteristic distribution of emergence times. In this paper, we test our ability to recover various "true" emergence time distributions as a function of 1) stellar age uncertainty and 2) number of Earth analogs in the sample. The absolute uncertainties that we recover, for diverse underlying distributions, are mostly independent of the true underlying distribution parameters, and are more dependent on sample size than stellar age uncertainty. For a sample size of 30 Earth analogs, and an HWO architecture sensitive to ozone at 1% of the current atmospheric level on Earth, we find that no ozone detections across the entire sample would place a 10$σ$ limit on the mean time of ozone emergence, regardless of stellar age uncertainty.

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arXiv2025

Planetesimal Scattering Efficiency of Cold Giant Planet Architectures

The discovery of many exoplanets has revealed an incredible diversity of orbital architectures. These orbital configurations are intrinsically linked to the potential for habitable environments within the system, since the gravitational influence of the planets governs the angular momentum distribution within the system. This angular momentum distribution, in turn, alters the planetary orbits and rotational obliquities. In the case of giant planets, their gravitational influence can also produce significant redistribution of volatiles, particularly those that lie beyond the snow line. Here, we present the results of dynamical simulations that investigate the role of cold giant planets in scattering material to inner terrestrial planets. We highlight 10 exoplanetary systems with 2 or more known giant planets beyond the snow line, and adopt a solar system analog template that investigates the scattering of material within the range 3-8~AU. We show that increasing the eccentricity of a Jupiter analog from its present, near-circular, value to a moderate range (0.2-0.3) results in an order of magnitude increase in scattered material to the inner part of the system. The inclusion of a Saturn analog to the dynamical model produces a similar increase, highlighting the importance of multiple giant planets beyond the snow line. However, the addition of analogs to Uranus and Neptune can have a minor negative effect on scattering efficiency through the transfer of angular momentum from the inner giant planets.

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arXiv2025

Giant Outer Transiting Exoplanet Mass (GOT 'EM) Survey. VI: Confirmation of a Long-Period Giant Planet Discovered with a Single TESS Transit

We report the discovery and confirmation of TOI-4465 b, a $1.25^{+0.08}_{-0.07}~R_{J}$, $5.89\pm0.26~M_{J}$ giant planet orbiting a G dwarf star at $d\simeq$ 122 pc. The planet was detected as a single-transit event in data from Sector 40 of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission. Radial velocity (RV) observations of TOI-4465 showed a planetary signal with an orbital period of $\sim$102 days, and an orbital eccentricity of $e=0.24\pm0.01$. TESS re-observed TOI-4465 in Sector 53 and Sector 80, but did not detect another transit of TOI-4465 b, as the planet was not expected to transit during these observations based on the RV period. A global ground-based photometry campaign was initiated to observe another transit of TOI-4465 b after the RV period determination. The $\sim$12 hour-long transit event was captured from multiple sites around the world, and included observations from 24 citizen scientists, confirming the orbital period as $\sim$102 days. TOI-4465 b is a relatively dense ($3.73\pm0.53~\rm{g/cm^3}$), temperate (375-478 K) giant planet. Based on giant planet structure models, TOI-4465 b appears to be enriched in heavy elements at a level consistent with late-stage accretion of icy planetesimals. Additionally, we explore TOI-4465 b's potential for atmospheric characterization, and obliquity measurement. Increasing the number of long-period planets by confirming single-transit events is crucial for understanding the frequency and demographics of planet populations in the outer regions of planetary systems.

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arXiv2025

Measurement of the Electric Dipole Moment of AlCl by Stark Level Spectroscopy

We report the measurement of the electric dipole moment of aluminum monochloride (AlCl) using a cryogenic buffer-gas beam source. Using Stark shift spectroscopy, we derive values for the dipole moments in the body-fixed frame of the two lowest vibrational states for the $X^1Σ^+$ electronic state, $μ_X(v''=0) = -1.679$ D and $μ_X(v'' = 1) = -1.761$ D, and for the $A^1Π$ state, $μ_A(v' = 0) = -1.030$ D and $μ_A(v' = 1) = -1.052$ D. We also show that the ab initio calculations of the dipole moment and $T_e$ energy of AlCl are sensitive to the level of treatment of the spin-orbit orbit coupling. We further lay out the implications of these results for astrophysical models of stellar and planetary evolution that have used a substitute value for the dipole moment of AlCl until now.

physics.atom-ph↗

arXiv2025

A Terminology and Quantitative Framework for Assessing the Habitability of Solar System and Extraterrestrial Worlds

The search for extraterrestrial life in the Solar System and beyond is a key science driver in astrobiology, planetary science, and astrophysics. A critical step is the identification and characterization of potential habitats, both to guide the search and to interpret its results. However, a well-accepted, self-consistent, flexible, and quantitative terminology and method of assessment of habitability are lacking. Our paper fills this gap based on a three year-long study by the NExSS Quantitative Habitability Science Working Group. We reviewed past studies of habitability, but find that the lack of a universally valid definition of life prohibits a universally applicable definition of habitability. A more nuanced approach is needed. We introduce a quantitative habitability assessment framework (QHF) that enables self-consistent, probabilistic assessment of the compatibility of two models: First, a habitat model, which describes the probability distributions of key conditions in the habitat. Second, a viability model, which describes the probability that a metabolism is viable given a set of environmental conditions. We provide an open-source implementation of this framework and four examples as a proof of concept: (a) Comparison of two exoplanets for observational target prioritization; (b) Interpretation of atmospheric O2 detection in two exoplanets; (c) Subsurface habitability of Mars; and (d) Ocean habitability in Europa. These examples demonstrate that our framework can self-consistently inform astrobiology research over a broad range of questions. The proposed framework is modular so that future work can expand the range and complexity of models available, both for habitats and for metabolisms.

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