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Steve Bryson

Publications and source records attributed to Steve Bryson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Exoplanet transit search at the detection limit: detection and false alarm vetting pipeline

One of the primary mission goals of the Kepler space telescope was to detect Earth-like terrestrial planets in the habitable zone around Sun-like stars. These planets are at the detection limit, where the Kepler detection and vetting pipeline produced unreliable planet candidates. We present a novel pipeline that improves the removal of localized defects prior to the planet search, improves vetting at the level of individual transits and introduces a Bayes factor test statistic and an algorithm for extracting multiple candidates from a single detection run. We show with injections in the Kepler data that the introduced novelties improve pipeline's completeness at a fixed false alarm rate. We apply the pipeline to the stars with previously identified planet candidates and show that our pipeline successfully recovers the previously confirmed candidates, but flags a considerable portion of unconfirmed candidates as likely false alarms, especially in the long period, low signal-to-noise ratio regime. In particular, several known Earth-like candidates in the habitable zone, such as KOI 8063.01, 8107.01 and 8242.01, are identified as false alarms, which could have a significant impact on the estimates of $\eta_{\oplus}$, i.e., the occurrence of Earth-like planets in the habitable zone.

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Why Estimating $\eta_\oplus$ is Difficult: A Kepler-Centric Perspective

$\eta_{\oplus}$, the occurrence rate of rocky habitable zone exoplanets orbiting Sun-like stars, is of great interest to both the astronomical community and the general public. The Kepler space telescope has made it possible to estimate $\eta_{\oplus}$, but estimates by different groups vary by more than an order of magnitude. We identify several causes for this range of estimates. We first review why, despite being designed to estimate $\eta_{\oplus}$, Kepler's observations are not sufficient for a high-confidence estimate, due to Kepler's detection limit coinciding with the $\eta_{\oplus}$ regime. This results in a need to infer $\eta_{\oplus}$, for example extrapolating from a regime of non-habitable zone, non-rocky exoplanets. We examine two broad classes of causes that can account for the large discrepancy in $\eta_\oplus$ found in the literature: a) differences in definitions and input data between studies, and b) fundamental limits in Kepler data that lead to large uncertainties and poor accuracy. We highlight the risk of large biases when using extrapolation to describe small exoplanet populations in the habitable zone. We discuss how $\eta_{\oplus}$ estimates based on Kepler data can be improved, such as reprocessing Kepler data for more complete, higher-reliability detections and better exoplanet catalog characterization. We briefly survey upcoming space telescopes capable of measuring $\eta_{\oplus}$, and how they can be used to supplement Kepler data.

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Are We There Yet? Challenges in Quantifying the Frequency of Earth Analogs in the Habitable Zone

Searching for life elsewhere in the universe is one of the most highly prioritized pursuits in astronomy today. However, the ability to observe evidence of Earth-like life through biosignatures is limited by the number of planets in the solar neighborhood with conditions similar to Earth. The occurrence rate of Earth-like planets in the habitable zones of Sun-like stars, $\eta_{\oplus}$, is therefore crucial for addressing the apparent lack of consensus on its value in the literature. Here we present a review of the current understanding of $\eta_{\oplus}$. We first provide definitions for parameters that contribute to $\eta_{\oplus}$. Then, we discuss the previous and current estimated parameter values and the context of the limitations on the analyses that produced these estimates. We compile an extensive list of the factors that go into any calculation of $\eta_{\oplus}$, and how detection techniques and surveys differ in their sensitivity and ability to accurately constrain $\eta_{\oplus}$. Understanding and refining the value of $\eta_{\oplus}$ is crucial for upcoming missions and telescopes, such as the planned Habitable Worlds Observatory and the Large Interferometer for Exoplanets, which aim to search for biosignatures on exoplanets in the solar neighborhood.

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LEO-Vetter: Fully Automated Flux- and Pixel-Level Vetting of TESS Planet Candidates to Support Occurrence Rates

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has identified several thousand planet candidates orbiting a wide variety of stars, and has provided an exciting opportunity for demographic studies. However, current TESS planet searches require significant manual inspection efforts to identify planets among the enormous number of detected transit-like signatures, which limits the scope of such searches. Demographic studies also require a detailed understanding of the relationship between observed and true exoplanet populations; a task for which current TESS planet catalogs are rendered unsuitable by the subjectivity of vetting by eye. We present LEO-Vetter, a publicly available and fully automated exoplanet vetting system designed after the Kepler Robovetter, which is capable of efficiently producing catalogs of promising planet candidates and making statistically robust TESS demographic studies possible. LEO-Vetter implements flux- and pixel-level tests against noise/systematic false positives and astrophysical false positives. The vetter achieves high completeness (91%) and high reliability against noise/systematic false alarms (97%) based on its performance on simulated data. We demonstrate the usefulness of the vetter by searching ~200,000 M dwarf light curves, and reducing ~20,000 transit-like detections down to 172 uniformly vetted planet candidates. LEO-Vetter facilitates analyses that would otherwise be impractical to perform on all possible signals due to time constraints or computational limitations. Users will be able to efficiently produce their own TESS planet catalog starting with transit-like detections, as well as have the framework needed to characterize their catalog's completeness and reliability for occurrence rates.

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Paths to Robust Exoplanet Science Yield Margin for the Habitable Worlds Observatory

The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) will seek to detect and characterize potentially Earth-like planets around other stars. To ensure that the mission achieves the Astro2020 Decadal's recommended goal of 25 exoEarth candidates (EECs), we must take into account the probabilistic nature of exoplanet detections and provide "science margin" to budget for astrophysical uncertainties with a reasonable level of confidence. In this study, we explore the probabilistic distributions of yields to be expected from a blind exoEarth survey conducted by such a mission. We identify and estimate the impact of all major known sources of astrophysical uncertainty on the exoEarth candidate yield. As expected, eta_Earth uncertainties dominate the uncertainty in EEC yield, but we show that sampling uncertainties inherent to a blind survey are another important source of uncertainty that should be budgeted for during mission design. We adopt the Large UV/Optical/IR Surveyor Design B (LUVOIR-B) as a baseline and modify the telescope diameter to estimate the science margin provided by a larger telescope. We then depart from the LUVOIR-B baseline design and identify six possible design changes that, when compiled, provide large gains in exoEarth candidate yield and more than an order of magnitude reduction in exposure times for the highest priority targets. We conclude that a combination of telescope diameter increase and design improvements could provide robust exoplanet science margins for HWO.

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Searching for Free-Floating Planets with TESS: Results from Sectors 61-65

Though free-floating planets (FFPs) may outpopulate their bound counterparts in the terrestrial-mass range, they remain one of the least explored exoplanet demographics. Due to their negligible electromagnetic emission at all wavelengths, the only observational technique able to detect these worlds is gravitational microlensing. Microlensing by terrestrial-mass FFPs induces rare, short-duration magnifications of background stars, requiring high-cadence, wide-field surveys to detect these events. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), though designed to detect close-bound exoplanets via transits, boasts a Full-Frame Image cadence as short as 200 seconds and has monitored hundreds of millions of stars, providing a unique dataset in which to search for rare short-duration transients. We have performed a preliminary search for FFP microlensing in 7.5 million light curves from TESS Sectors 61 - 65. We find one short-duration event with a light curve morphology consistent with expectations for a low-mass FFP, but in tension with the expected FFP abundance in this mass range. We consider possible false positive interpretations of this event such as stellar flares, hearbeat binaries, and centrifugal breakout. We find that all interpretations pose some challenges, and discuss the possibility that the event may constitute a first example of a new class of pernicious false positives that future space-based microlensing efforts will encounter. Our ongoing search through the TESS dataset will significantly support the upcoming hunt for rogue worlds with dedicated space-based microlensing surveys, and our results may be used alongside these surveys to place interesting constraints on the spatial distribution of FFPs in the Galaxy.

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A Reply to: Large Exomoons unlikely around Kepler-1625 b and Kepler-1708 b

Recently, Heller & Hippke argued that the exomoon candidates Kepler-1625 b-i and Kepler-1708 b-i were allegedly 'refuted'. In this Matters Arising, we address these claims. For Kepler-1625 b, we show that their Hubble light curve is identical to that previously published by the same lead author, in which the moon-like dip was recovered. Indeed, our fits of their data again recover the moon-like dip with improved residuals than that obtained by Heller & Hippke. Their fits therefore appear to have somehow missed this deeper likelihood maximum, as well producing apparently unconverged posteriors. Consequently, their best-fitting moon is the same radius as the planet, Kepler-1625 b; a radically different signal from that which was originally claimed. The authors then inject this solution into the Kepler data and remark, as a point of concern, how retrievals obtain much higher significances than originally reported. However, this issue stems from the injection of a fundamentally different signal. We demonstrate that their Hubble light curve exhibits ~20% higher noise and discards 11% of the useful data, which compromises its ability to recover the subtle signal of Kepler-1625 b-i. For Kepler-1708 b-i it was claimed that the exomoon model's Bayes factor is highly sensitive to detrending choices, yielding reduced evidence with a biweight filter versus the original claim. We use their own i) detrended light curve and ii) biweight filter code to investigate these claims. For both, we recover the original moon signal, to even higher confidence than before. The discrepancy is explained by comparing to their quoted fit metrics, where we again demonstrate that the Heller & Hippke regression definitively missed the deeper likelihood maximum corresponding to Kepler-1708 b-i. We conclude that both candidates remain viable but certainly demand further observations.

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A Unified Treatment of Kepler Occurrence to Trace Planet Evolution I: Methodology

We present Kepler exoplanet occurrence rates for planets between $0.5-16$ R$_\oplus$ and between $1-400$ days. To measure occurrence, we use a non-parametric method via a kernel density estimator and use bootstrap random sampling for uncertainty estimation. We use a full characterization of completeness and reliability measurements from the Kepler DR25 catalog, including detection efficiency, vetting completeness, astrophysical- and false alarm reliability. We also include more accurate and homogeneous stellar radii from Gaia DR2. In order to see the impact of these final Kepler properties, we revisit benchmark exoplanet occurrence rate measurements from the literature. We compare our measurements with previous studies to both validate our method and observe the dependence of these benchmarks on updated stellar and planet properties. For FGK stars, between $0.5-16$ R$_\oplus$ and between $1-400$ days, we find an occurrence of $1.52\pm0.08$ planets per star. We investigate the dependence of occurrence as a function of radius, orbital period, and stellar type and compare with previous studies with excellent agreement. We measure the minimum of the radius valley to be $1.78^{+0.14}_{-0.16}$ R$_\oplus$ for FGK stars and find it to move to smaller radii for cooler stars. We also present new measurements of the slope of the occurrence cliff at $3-4$ R$_\oplus$, and find that the cliff becomes less steep at long orbital period. Our methodology will enable us to constrain theoretical models of planet formation and evolution in the future.

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Enabling Exoplanet Demographics Studies with Standardized Exoplanet Survey Meta-Data

Goal 1 of the National Academies of Science, Engineering and Mathematics Exoplanet Science Strategy is "to understand the formation and evolution of planetary systems as products of the process of star formation, and characterize and explain the diversity of planetary system architectures, planetary compositions, and planetary environments produced by these processes", with the finding that "Current knowledge of the demographics and characteristics of planets and their systems is substantially incomplete." One significant roadblock to our ongoing efforts to improve our demographics analyses is the lack of comprehensive meta-data accompanying published exoplanet surveys. The Exoplanet Program Analysis Group (ExoPAG) Science Interest Group 2: Exoplanet Demographics has prepared this document to provide guidance to survey architects, authors, referees and funding agencies as to the most valuable such data products for five different exoplanet detection techniques - transit, radial velocity, direct imaging, microlensing and astrometry. We find that making these additional data easily available would greatly enhance the community's ability to perform robust, reproducible demographics analyses, and make progress on achieving the most important goals identified by the exoplanet and wider astronomical community.

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False Alarms Revealed in a Planet Search of TESS Light Curves

We examined the period distribution of transit-like signatures uncovered in a Box-Least Squares transit search of TESS light curves, and show significant pileups at periods related to instrumental and astrophysical noise sources. Signatures uncovered in a search of inverted light curves feature similar structures in the period distribution. Automated vetting methods will need to remove these excess detections, and light curve inversion appears to be a suitable method for simulating false alarms and designing new vetting metrics.

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An Exomoon Survey of 70 Cool Giant Exoplanets and the New Candidate Kepler-1708 b-i

Exomoons represent a crucial missing puzzle piece in our efforts to understand extrasolar planetary systems. To address this deficiency, we here describe an exomoon survey of 70 cool, giant transiting exoplanet candidates found by Kepler. We identify only one which exhibits a moon-like signal that passes a battery of vetting tests: Kepler-1708 b. We show that Kepler-1708 b is a statistically validated Jupiter-sized planet orbiting a Sun-like quiescent star at ~1.6AU. The signal of the exomoon candidate, Kepler-1708 b-i, is a 4.8-sigma effect and is persistent across different instrumental detrending methods, with a 1% false-positive probability via injection-recovery. Kepler-1708 b-i is ~2.6 Earth radii and is located in an approximately coplanar orbit at ~12 planetary radii from its ~1.6AU Jupiter-sized host. Future observations will be necessary to validate or reject the candidate.

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The TESS Faint Star Search: 1,617 TOIs from the TESS Primary Mission

We present the detection of 1,617 new transiting planet candidates, identified in the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) full-frame images (FFIs) observed during the Primary Mission (Sectors 1 - 26). These candidates were initially detected by the Quick-Look Pipeline (QLP), which extracts FFI lightcurves for and searches all stars brighter than TESS magnitude T = 13.5 mag in each sector. However, QLP heavily relies on manual inspection for the identification of planet candidates, limiting vetting efforts to planet-hosting stars brighter than T = 10.5 mag and leaving millions of potential transit signals un-vetted. We describe an independent vetting pipeline applied to QLP transit search results, incorporating both automated vetting tests and manual inspection to identify promising planet candidates around these fainter stars. The new candidates discovered by this ongoing project will allow TESS to significantly improve the statistical power of demographics studies of giant, close-in exoplanets.

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Rescuing Unrecognized Exoplanet Candidates in Kepler Data

The prime Kepler mission detected 34,032 transit-like signals, out of which 8,054 were identified as likely due to astrophysical planet transits or eclipsing binaries. We manually examined 306 of the remaining 25,978 detections, and found six plausible transiting or eclipsing objects, five of which are plausible planet candidates (PCs), and one stellar companion. One of our new PCs is a possible new second planet in the KOI 4302 system. Another new PC is a possible new planet around the KOI 4246, and when combined with a different possible planet rescued by the False Positive Working Group, we find that KOI 4246 may be a previously unrecognized three-planet system. \end{abstract}

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Combining Transit and RV: A Synthesized Population Model

We present a framework for estimating exoplanet occurrence rates by synthesizing constraints from radial velocity and transit surveys simultaneously. We employ approximate Bayesian computation and various mass-radius (M-R) relations to explore the population models describing these surveys, both separately and in a joint fit. Using this approach, we fit a planet distribution function of the form $d^{2} N/d\log{P}d\log{M} \propto P^β M^α$, with a break in the power law in mass at $M_{b}$, to planets orbiting FGK stars with periods $P = [25, 200]$ days and masses $M = [2, 50] M_{\oplus}$. We find that the M-R relation from Otegi et al. (2020), which lets rocky and volatile-rich populations overlap in mass, allows us to find a model that is consistent with both types of surveys. Our joint fit gives $M_{b} = 21.6_{-3.2}^{+2.5} M_{\oplus}$ (errors reflect 68.3% credible interval). This is nearly a factor of three higher than the break from transit-only considerations and an M-R relation without such an overlap. The corresponding planet-star mass ratio break $q_{b} \sim 7\times10^{-5}$ may be consistent with microlensing studies ($q_b \sim 6\times10^{-5} - 2\times10^{-4}$). The joint fit also requires that a fraction of $F_{\text{rocky}} = 0.63_{-0.04}^{+0.04}$ planets in the overlap region belong to the rocky population. Our results strongly suggest that future M-R relations should account for a mixture of distinct types of planets in order to describe the observed planet population.

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The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable Zone Planets Around Solar-Like Stars from Kepler Data

We present occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZ) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define $η_\oplus$ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radius between 0.5 and 1.5 $R_\oplus$ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 K and 6300 K. We find that $η_\oplus$ for the conservative HZ is between $0.37^{+0.48}_{-0.21}$ (errors reflect 68\% credible intervals) and $0.60^{+0.90}_{-0.36}$ planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between $0.58^{+0.73}_{-0.33}$ and $0.88^{+1.28}_{-0.51}$ planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates using both a Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with $95\%$ confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is about 6 pc away, and there are about 4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.

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Sensitivity Analyses of Exoplanet Occurrence Rates from Kepler and Gaia

We infer the number of planets-per-star as a function of orbital period and planet size using $Kepler$ archival data products with updated stellar properties from the $Gaia$ Data Release 2. Using hierarchical Bayesian modeling and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, we incorporate planet radius uncertainties into an inhomogeneous Poisson point process model. We demonstrate that this model captures the general features of the outcome of the planet formation and evolution around GK stars, and provides an infrastructure to use the $Kepler$ results to constrain analytic planet distribution models. We report an increased mean and variance in the marginal posterior distributions for the number of planets per $GK$ star when including planet radius measurement uncertainties. We estimate the number of planets-per-$GK$ star between 0.75 and 2.5 $R_{\oplus}$ and 50 to 300 day orbital periods to have a $68\%$ credible interval of $0.49$ to $0.77$ and a posterior mean of $0.63$. This posterior has a smaller mean and a larger variance than the occurrence rate calculated in this work and in Burke et al. (2015) for the same parameter space using the $Q1-Q16$ (previous $Kepler$ planet candidate and stellar catalog). We attribute the smaller mean to many of the instrumental false positives at longer orbital periods being removed from the $DR25$ catalog. We find that the accuracy and precision of our hierarchical Bayesian model posterior distributions are less sensitive to the total number of planets in the sample, and more so on the characteristics of the catalog completeness and reliability and the span of the planet parameter space.

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Reliability Correction is Key for Robust Kepler Occurrence Rates

The Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog was produced using an automated method of planet candidate identification based on various tests. These tests were tuned to obtain a reasonable but arbitrary balance between catalog completeness and reliability. We produce new catalogs with differing balances of completeness and reliability by varying these tests, and study the impact of these alternative catalogs on occurrence rates. We find that if there is no correction for reliability, different catalogs give statistically inconsistent occurrence rates, while if we correct for both completeness and reliability, we get statistically consistent occurrence rates. This is a strong indication that correction for completeness and reliability is critical for the accurate computation of occurrence rates. Additionally, we find that this result is the same whether using Bayesian Poisson likelihood MCMC or Approximate Bayesian Computation methods. We also examine the use of a Robovetter disposition score cut as an alternative to reliability correction, and find that while a score cut does increase the reliability of the catalog, it is not as accurate as performing a full reliability correction. We get the same result when performing a reliability correction with and without a score cut. Therefore removing low-score planets removes data without providing any advantage, and should be avoided when possible. We make our alternative catalogs publicly available, and propose that these should be used as a test of occurrence rate methods, with the requirement that a method should provide statistically consistent occurrence rates for all these catalogs.

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