arXiv subjects

Steve Bryson

Publications and source records attributed to Steve Bryson.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Comparing Approximate Bayesian Computation with the Poisson-Likelihood Method for Exoplanet Occurrence Rates

We present Kepler exoplanet occurrence rates inferred with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). By using the same planet catalogue, stellar sample, and characterization of completeness and reliability as Bryson et al. (2020), we are able to provide the first direct comparison of results from ABC to those derived with the popular Poisson-likelihood method. For planets with orbital periods between 50 and 400 days and radii between 0.75 and 2.5 $R_{\oplus}$, we find an integrated occurrence rate $F_{0} = 0.596_{-0.099}^{+0.092}$ planets per GK dwarf star. After correcting for reliability against astrophysical false positives and false alarms, we find $F_{0} = 0.421_{-0.072}^{+0.086}$. Our findings agree within 1$σ$ of Bryson et al. (2020), indicating that the results are robust and not method-dependent.

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arXiv2020

Transit least-squares survey -- III. A $1.9\,R_\oplus$ transit candidate in the habitable zone of Kepler-160 and a nontransiting planet characterized by transit-timing variations

The Sun-like star Kepler-160 (KOI-456) has been known to host two transiting planets, Kepler-160 b and c, of which planet c shows substantial transit-timing variations (TTVs). We used the archival Kepler photometry of Kepler-160 to search for additional transiting planets using a combination of our Wotan detrending algorithm and our transit least-squares (TLS) detection algorithm. We also used the Mercury N-body gravity code to study the orbital dynamics of the system. First, we recovered the known transit series of planets Kepler-160 b and c. Then we found a new transiting candidate with a radius of 1.91 (+0.17, -0.14) Earth radii (R_ear), an orbital period of 378.417 (+0.028, -0.025) d, and Earth-like insolation. The vespa software predicts that this signal has an astrophysical false-positive probability of FPP_3 = 1.8e-3 when the multiplicity of the system is taken into account. Kepler vetting diagnostics yield a multiple event statistic of MES = 10.7, which corresponds to an ~85 % reliability against false alarms due to instrumental artifacts such as rolling bands. We are also able to explain the observed TTVs of planet c with the presence of a previously unknown planet. The period and mass of this new planet, however, do not match the period and mass of the new transit candidate. Our Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations of the TTVs of Kepler-160 c can be conclusively explained by a new nontransiting planet with a mass between about 1 and 100 Earth masses and an orbital period between about 7 and 50 d. We conclude that Kepler-160 has at least three planets, one of which is the nontransiting planet Kepler-160 d. The expected stellar radial velocity amplitude caused by this new planet ranges between about 1 and 20 m/s. We also find the super-Earth-sized transiting planet candidate KOI-456.04 in the habitable zone of this system, which could be the fourth planet.

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arXiv2020

A Habitable-Zone Earth-Sized Planet Rescued from False Positive Status

We report the discovery of an Earth-sized planet in the habitable zone of a low-mass star called Kepler-1649. The planet, Kepler-1649 c, is 1.06$^{+0.15}_{-0.10}$ times the size of Earth and transits its 0.1977 +/- 0.0051 Msun mid M-dwarf host star every 19.5 days. It receives 74 +/- 3 % the incident flux of Earth, giving it an equilibrium temperature of 234 +/- 20K and placing it firmly inside the circumstellar habitable zone. Kepler-1649 also hosts a previously-known inner planet that orbits every 8.7 days and is roughly equivalent to Venus in size and incident flux. Kepler-1649 c was originally classified as a false positive by the Kepler pipeline, but was rescued as part of a systematic visual inspection of all automatically dispositioned Kepler false positives. This discovery highlights the value of human inspection of planet candidates even as automated techniques improve, and hints that terrestrial planets around mid to late M-dwarfs may be more common than those around more massive stars.

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arXiv2020

A Probabilistic Approach to Kepler Completeness and Reliability for Exoplanet Occurrence Rates

Exoplanet catalogs produced by surveys suffer from a lack of completeness (not every planet is detected) and less than perfect reliability (not every planet in the catalog is a true planet), particularly near the survey's detection limit. Exoplanet occurrence rate studies based on such a catalog must be corrected for completeness and reliability. The final Kepler data release, DR25, features a uniformly vetted planet candidate catalog and data products that facilitate corrections. We present a new probabilistic approach to the characterization of Kepler completeness and reliability, making full use of the Kepler DR25 products. We illustrate the impact of completeness and reliability corrections with a Poisson-likelihood occurrence rate method, using a recent stellar properties catalog that incorporates Gaia stellar radii and essentially uniform treatment of the stellar population. Correcting for reliability has a significant impact: the exoplanet occurrence rate for orbital period and radius within 20% of Earth's around GK dwarf stars, corrected for reliability, is 0.015+0.011-0.007, whereas not correcting results in 0.034+0.018-0.012 - correcting for reliability reduces this occurrence rate by more than a factor of two. We further show that using Gaia-based vs. DR25 stellar properties impacts the same occurrence rate by a factor of two. We critically examine the the DR25 catalog and the assumptions behind our occurrence rate method. We propose several ways in which confidence in both the Kepler catalog and occurrence rate calculations can be improved. This work provides an example of how the community can use the DR25 completeness and reliability products.

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arXiv2018

Kepler's Discoveries Will Continue: 21 Important Scientific Opportunities with Kepler & K2 Archive Data

NASA's Kepler Space Telescope has collected high-precision, high-cadence time series photometry on 781,590 unique postage-stamp targets across 21 different fields of view. These observations have already yielded 2,496 scientific publications by authors from 63 countries. The full data set is now public and available from NASA's data archives, enabling continued investigations and discoveries of exoplanets, oscillating stars, eclipsing binaries, stellar variability, star clusters, supernovae, galaxies, asteroids, and much more. In this white paper, we discuss 21 important data analysis projects which are enabled by the archive data. The aim of this paper is to help new users understand where there may be important scientific gains left to be made in analyzing Kepler data, and to encourage the continued use of the archives. With the TESS mission about to start releasing data, the studies will inform new experiments, new surveys, and new analysis techniques. The Kepler mission has provided an unprecedented data set with a precision and duration that will not be rivaled for decades. The studies discussed in this paper show that many of Kepler's contributions still lie ahead of us, owing to the emergence of complementary new data sets like Gaia, novel data analysis methods, and advances in computing power. Kepler's unique data archive will provide new discoveries for years to come, touching upon key aspects of each of NASA's three big astrophysics questions; How does the universe work? How did we get here? Are we alone?

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arXiv2018

A catalog of 29 open clusters and associations observed by the Kepler and K2 Missions

Over the past nine years, the Kepler and K2 Missions have carried out high precision photometric monitoring of more than half a million stars. Among these targets are 29 clusters and associations, with ages from 1 Myr to over 11 Gyr. We have generated a catalog of Kepler/K2 clusters, including basic information about the observations as well as the degree of scientific attention paid to them thus far. We present the catalog and a discussion of current and future cluster science endeavors as a way to motivate the astronomical community to continue mining these exquisite datasets.

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arXiv2018

Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler. VIII. A Fully Automated Catalog With Measured Completeness and Reliability Based on Data Release 25

We present the Kepler Object of Interest (KOI) catalog of transiting exoplanets based on searching four years of Kepler time series photometry (Data Release 25, Q1-Q17). The catalog contains 8054 KOIs of which 4034 are planet candidates with periods between 0.25 and 632 days. Of these candidates, 219 are new and include two in multi-planet systems (KOI-82.06 and KOI-2926.05), and ten high-reliability, terrestrial-size, habitable zone candidates. This catalog was created using a tool called the Robovetter which automatically vets the DR25 Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs, Twicken et al. 2016). The Robovetter also vetted simulated data sets and measured how well it was able to separate TCEs caused by noise from those caused by low signal-to-noise transits. We discusses the Robovetter and the metrics it uses to sort TCEs. For orbital periods less than 100 days the Robovetter completeness (the fraction of simulated transits that are determined to be planet candidates) across all observed stars is greater than 85%. For the same period range, the catalog reliability (the fraction of candidates that are not due to instrumental or stellar noise) is greater than 98%. However, for low signal-to-noise candidates between 200 and 500 days around FGK dwarf stars, the Robovetter is 76.7% complete and the catalog is 50.5% reliable. The KOI catalog, the transit fits and all of the simulated data used to characterize this catalog are available at the NASA Exoplanet Archive.

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arXiv2013

Virtual Reality: A Definition History - A Personal Essay

This essay, written in 1998 by an active participant in both virtual reality development and the virtual reality definition debate, discusses the definition of the phrase "Virtual Reality" (VR). I start with history from a personal perspective, concentrating on the debate between the "Virtual Reality" and "Virtual Environment" labels in the late 1980's and early 1990's. Definitions of VR based on specific technologies are shown to be unsatisfactory. I propose the following definition of VR, based on the striking effects of a good VR system: "Virtual Reality is the use of computer technology to create the effect of an interactive three-dimensional world in which the objects have a sense of spatial presence." The justification for this definition is discussed in detail, and is favorably compared with the dictionary definitions of "virtual" and "reality". The implications of this definition for virtual reality technology are briefly examined.

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arXiv2012

Planet Hunters: New Kepler planet candidates from analysis of quarter 2

We present new planet candidates identified in NASA Kepler quarter two public release data by volunteers engaged in the Planet Hunters citizen science project. The two candidates presented here survive checks for false-positives, including examination of the pixel offset to constrain the possibility of a background eclipsing binary. The orbital periods of the planet candidates are 97.46 days (KIC 4552729) and 284.03 (KIC 10005758) days and the modeled planet radii are 5.3 and 3.8 R_Earth. The latter star has an additional known planet candidate with a radius of 5.05 R_Earth and a period of 134.49 which was detected by the Kepler pipeline. The discovery of these candidates illustrates the value of massively distributed volunteer review of the Kepler database to recover candidates which were otherwise uncatalogued.

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arXiv2012

Transit Timing Observations from Kepler: VII. Confirmation of 27 planets in 13 multiplanet systems via Transit Timing Variations and orbital stability

We confirm 27 planets in 13 planetary systems by showing the existence of statistically significant anti-correlated transit timing variations (TTVs), which demonstrates that the planet candidates are in the same system, and long-term dynamical stability, which places limits on the masses of the candidates---showing that they are planetary. %This overall method of planet confirmation was first applied to \kepler systems 23 through 32. All of these newly confirmed planetary systems have orbital periods that place them near first-order mean motion resonances (MMRs), including 6 systems near the 2:1 MMR, 5 near 3:2, and one each near 4:3, 5:4, and 6:5. In addition, several unconfirmed planet candidates exist in some systems (that cannot be confirmed with this method at this time). A few of these candidates would also be near first order MMRs with either the confirmed planets or with other candidates. One system of particular interest, Kepler-56 (KOI-1241), is a pair of planets orbiting a 12th magnitude, giant star with radius over three times that of the Sun and effective temperature of 4900 K---among the largest stars known to host a transiting exoplanetary system.

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arXiv2012

Transit Timing Observations from Kepler: VI. Potentially interesting candidate systems from Fourier-based statistical tests

We analyze the deviations of transit times from a linear ephemeris for the Kepler Objects of Interest (KOI) through Quarter six (Q6) of science data. We conduct two statistical tests for all KOIs and a related statistical test for all pairs of KOIs in multi-transiting systems. These tests identify several systems which show potentially interesting transit timing variations (TTVs). Strong TTV systems have been valuable for the confirmation of planets and their mass measurements. Many of the systems identified in this study should prove fruitful for detailed TTV studies.

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arXiv2012

Kepler-36: A Pair of Planets with Neighboring Orbits and Dissimilar Densities

In the Solar system the planets' compositions vary with orbital distance, with rocky planets in close orbits and lower-density gas giants in wider orbits. The detection of close-in giant planets around other stars was the first clue that this pattern is not universal, and that planets' orbits can change substantially after their formation. Here we report another violation of the orbit-composition pattern: two planets orbiting the same star with orbital distances differing by only 10%, and densities differing by a factor of 8. One planet is likely a rocky `super-Earth', whereas the other is more akin to Neptune. These planets are thirty times more closely spaced--and have a larger density contrast--than any adjacent pair of planets in the Solar system.

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arXiv2012

Transit Timing Observations from Kepler: IV. Confirmation of 4 Multiple Planet Systems by Simple Physical Models

Eighty planetary systems of two or more planets are known to orbit stars other than the Sun. For most, the data can be sufficiently explained by non-interacting Keplerian orbits, so the dynamical interactions of these systems have not been observed. Here we present 4 sets of lightcurves from the Kepler spacecraft, which each show multiple planets transiting the same star. Departure of the timing of these transits from strict periodicity indicates the planets are perturbing each other: the observed timing variations match the forcing frequency of the other planet. This confirms that these objects are in the same system. Next we limit their masses to the planetary regime by requiring the system remain stable for astronomical timescales. Finally, we report dynamical fits to the transit times, yielding possible values for the planets' masses and eccentricities. As the timespan of timing data increases, dynamical fits may allow detailed constraints on the systems' architectures, even in cases for which high-precision Doppler follow-up is impractical.

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arXiv2012

Transit Timing Observations from Kepler: III. Confirmation of 4 Multiple Planet Systems by a Fourier-Domain Study of Anti-correlated Transit Timing Variations

We present a method to confirm the planetary nature of objects in systems with multiple transiting exoplanet candidates. This method involves a Fourier-Domain analysis of the deviations in the transit times from a constant period that result from dynamical interactions within the system. The combination of observed anti-correlations in the transit times and mass constraints from dynamical stability allow us to claim the discovery of four planetary systems Kepler-25, Kepler-26, Kepler-27, and Kepler-28, containing eight planets and one additional planet candidate.

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arXiv2011

Planet Hunters: The First Two Planet Candidates Identified by the Public using the Kepler Public Archive Data

Planet Hunters is a new citizen science project, designed to engage the public in an exoplanet search using NASA Kepler public release data. In the first month after launch, users identified two new planet candidates which survived our checks for false- positives. The follow-up effort included analysis of Keck HIRES spectra of the host stars, analysis of pixel centroid offsets in the Kepler data and adaptive optics imaging at Keck using NIRC2. Spectral synthesis modeling coupled with stellar evolutionary models yields a stellar density distribution, which is used to model the transit orbit. The orbital periods of the planet candidates are 9.8844 \pm0.0087 days (KIC 10905746) and 49.7696 \pm0.00039 (KIC 6185331) days and the modeled planet radii are 2.65 and 8.05 R\oplus. The involvement of citizen scientists as part of Planet Hunters is therefore shown to be a valuable and reliable tool in exoplanet detection.

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arXiv2011

KOI-54: The Kepler Discovery of Tidally-Excited Pulsations and Brightenings in a Highly Eccentric Binary

Kepler observations of the star HD 187091 (KID 8112039, hereafter KOI-54) revealed a remarkable light curve exhibiting sharp periodic brightening events every 41.8 days with a superimposed set of oscillations forming a beating pattern in phase with the brightenings. Spectroscopic observations revealed that this is a binary star with a highly eccentric orbit, e=0.83. We are able to match the Kepler light curve and radial velocities with a nearly face-on (i=5.5 degree) binary star model in which the brightening events are caused by tidal distortion and irradiation of nearly identical A stars during their close periastron passage. The two dominant oscillations in the light curve, responsible for the beating pattern, have frequencies that are the 91st and 90th harmonic of the orbital frequency. The power spectrum of the light curve, after removing the binary star brightening component, reveals a large number of pulsations, 30 of which have a signal-to-noise ratio > 7. Nearly all of these pulsations have frequencies that are either integer multiples of the orbital frequency or are tidally-split multiples of the orbital frequency. This pattern of frequencies unambiguously establishes the pulsations as resonances between the dynamic tides at periastron and the free oscillation modes of one of the stars. KOI-54 is only the 4th star to show such a phenomenon, and is by far the richest in terms of excited modes.

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arXiv2011

The First Kepler Mission Planet Confirmed With The Hobby-Eberly Telescope: Kepler-15b, a Hot Jupiter Enriched In Heavy Elements

We report the discovery of Kepler-15b, a new transiting exoplanet detected by NASA's Kepler mission. The transit signal with a period of 4.94 days was detected in the quarter 1 (Q1) Kepler photometry. For the first time, we have used the High-Resolution-Spectrograph (HRS) at the Hobby-Eberly Telescope (HET) to determine the mass of a Kepler planet via precise radial velocity (RV) measurements. The 24 HET/HRS radial velocities (RV) and 6 additional measurements from the FIES spectrograph at the Nordic Optical Telescope (NOT) reveal a Doppler signal with the same period and phase as the transit ephemeris. We used one HET/HRS spectrum of Kepler-15 taken without the iodine cell to determine accurate stellar parameters. The host star is a metal-rich ([Fe/H]=0.36+/-0.07) G-type main sequence star with T_eff=5515+/-124 K. The amplitude of the RV-orbit yields a mass of the planet of 0.66+/-0.1 M_Jup. The planet has a radius of 0.96+/-0.06 R_Jup and a mean bulk density of 0.9+/-0.2 g/cm^3. The planetary radius resides on the lower envelope for transiting planets with similar mass and irradiation level. This suggests significant enrichment of the planet with heavy elements. We estimate a heavy element mass of 30-40 M_Earth within Kepler-15b.

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arXiv2011

Transit Timing Observations from Kepler: I. Statistical Analysis of the First Four Months

The architectures of multiple planet systems can provide valuable constraints on models of planet formation, including orbital migration, and excitation of orbital eccentricities and inclinations. NASA's Kepler mission has identified 1235 transiting planet candidates (Borcuki et al 2011). The method of transit timing variations (TTVs) has already confirmed 7 planets in two planetary systems (Holman et al. 2010; Lissauer et al. 2011a). We perform a transit timing analysis of the Kepler planet candidates. We find that at least ~12% of planet candidates currently suitable for TTV analysis show evidence suggestive of TTVs, representing at least ~65 TTV candidates. In all cases, the time span of observations must increase for TTVs to provide strong constraints on planet masses and/or orbits, as expected based on n-body integrations of multiple transiting planet candidate systems (assuming circular and coplanar orbits). We find that the fraction of planet candidates showing TTVs in this data set does not vary significantly with the number of transiting planet candidates per star, suggesting significant mutual inclinations and that many stars with a single transiting planet should host additional non-transiting planets. We anticipate that Kepler could confirm (or reject) at least ~12 systems with multiple transiting planet candidates via TTVs. Thus, TTVs will provide a powerful tool for confirming transiting planets and characterizing the orbital dynamics of low-mass planets. If Kepler observations were extended to at least six years, then TTVs would provide much more precise constraints on the dynamics of systems with multiple transiting planets and would become sensitive to planets with orbital periods extending into the habitable zone of solar-type stars.

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