arXiv subjects

Suzanne Hawley

Publications and source records attributed to Suzanne Hawley.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Radio and Optical Flares on the dMe Flare Star EV Lac

We present the results of a coordinated campaign to observe radio and optical stellar flares from the nearby M dwarf flare star EV~Lac. From a total of 27 hours of radio and 29 hours of optical observations, we examine the correspondence of the action of accelerated electrons of different energies in two distinct regions of the stellar atmosphere. We find that out of 9 optical flares with suitable radio coverage, only four have plausible evidence for a radio response. Optical photometric properties cannot predict which flares will have a radio response. From flares with time-resolved optical spectroscopy available, optical-only flares have similar implied electron distributions, while those with radio responses better correlate with higher low-energy cutoffs. The optical flares with a radio response all exhibit a delay between the optical and radio peaks of $\approx$1-7 minutes, with the optical flare peaking earlier in all cases. This likely indicates multiple loops are involved in the event, and/or the different impacts on electrons trapped in a magnetic loop (producing radio emission), versus those directly precipitating from the loop (producing the optical flare). We also remark on the radio spectral index behavior at early times for the largest radio flare observed in this study, which we interpret as evidence for increased opacity from a chromospheric evaporation front.

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arXiv2024

A Fourth Planet in the Kepler-51 System Revealed by Transit Timing Variations

Kepler-51 is a $\lesssim 1\,\mathrm{Gyr}$-old Sun-like star hosting three transiting planets with radii $\approx 6$-$9\,R_\oplus$ and orbital periods $\approx 45$-$130\,\mathrm{days}$. Transit timing variations (TTVs) measured with past Kepler and Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations have been successfully modeled by considering gravitational interactions between the three transiting planets, yielding low masses and low mean densities ($\lesssim 0.1\,\mathrm{g/cm^3}$) for all three planets. However, the transit time of the outermost transiting planet Kepler-51d recently measured by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) 10 years after the Kepler observations is significantly discrepant from the prediction made by the three-planet TTV model, which we confirmed with ground-based and follow-up HST observations. We show that the departure from the three-planet model is explained by including a fourth outer planet, Kepler-51e, in the TTV model. A wide range of masses ($\lesssim M_\mathrm{Jup}$) and orbital periods ($\lesssim 10\,\mathrm{yr}$) are possible for Kepler-51e. Nevertheless, all the coplanar solutions found from our brute-force search imply masses $\lesssim 10\,M_\oplus$ for the inner transiting planets. Thus their densities remain low, though with larger uncertainties than previously estimated. Unlike other possible solutions, the one in which Kepler-51e is around the $2:1$ mean motion resonance with Kepler-51d implies low orbital eccentricities ($\lesssim 0.05$) and comparable masses ($\sim 5\,M_\oplus$) for all four planets, as is seen in other compact multi-planet systems. This work demonstrates the importance of long-term follow-up of TTV systems for probing longer period planets in a system.

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arXiv2024

Searching for GEMS: Characterizing Six Giant Planets around Cool Dwarfs

Transiting giant exoplanets around M-dwarf stars (GEMS) are rare, owing to the low-mass host stars. However, the all-sky coverage of TESS has enabled the detection of an increasingly large number of them to enable statistical surveys like the \textit{Searching for GEMS} survey. As part of this endeavour, we describe the observations of six transiting giant planets, which includes precise mass measurements for two GEMS (K2-419Ab, TOI-6034b) and statistical validation for four systems, which includes validation and mass upper limits for three of them (TOI-5218b, TOI-5616b, TOI-5634Ab), while the fourth one -- TOI-5414b is classified as a `likely planet'. Our observations include radial velocities from the Habitable-zone Planet Finder on the Hobby-Eberly Telescope, and MAROON-X on Gemini-North, along with photometry and high-contrast imaging from multiple ground-based facilities. In addition to TESS photometry, K2-419Ab was also observed and statistically validated as part of the K2 mission in Campaigns 5 and 18, which provides precise orbital and planetary constraints despite the faint host star and long orbital period of $\sim 20.4$ days. With an equilibrium temperature of only 380 K, K2-419Ab is one of the coolest known well-characterized transiting planets. TOI-6034 has a late F-type companion about 40\arcsec~away, making it the first GEMS host star to have an earlier main-sequence binary companion. These confirmations add to the existing small sample of confirmed transiting GEMS.

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arXiv2023

Early Spectroscopy and Dense Circumstellar Medium Interaction in SN 2023ixf

We present the optical spectroscopic evolution of SN~2023ixf seen in sub-night cadence spectra from 1.18 to 14 days after explosion. We identify high-ionization emission features, signatures of interaction with material surrounding the progenitor star, that fade over the first 7 days, with rapid evolution between spectra observed within the same night. We compare the emission lines present and their relative strength to those of other supernovae with early interaction, finding a close match to SN~2020pni and SN~2017ahn in the first spectrum and SN~2014G at later epochs. To physically interpret our observations we compare them to CMFGEN models with confined, dense circumstellar material around a red supergiant progenitor from the literature. We find that very few models reproduce the blended \NC{} emission lines observed in the first few spectra and their rapid disappearance thereafter, making this a unique diagnostic. From the best models, we find a mass-loss rate of $10^{-3}-10^{-2}$ \mlunit{}, which far exceeds the mass-loss rate for any steady wind, especially for a red supergiant in the initial mass range of the detected progenitor. These mass-loss rates are, however, similar to rates inferred for other supernovae with early circumstellar interaction. Using the phase when the narrow emission features disappear, we calculate an outer dense radius of circumstellar material $R_\mathrm{CSM, out}\sim5\times10^{14}~\mathrm{cm}$ and a mean circumstellar material density of $ρ=5.6\times10^{-14}~\mathrm{g\,cm^{-3}}$. This is consistent with the lower limit on the outer radius of the circumstellar material we calculate from the peak \Halpha{} emission flux, $R_\text{CSM, out}\gtrsim9\times10^{13}~\mathrm{cm}$.

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arXiv2023

NEID Reveals that The Young Warm Neptune TOI-2076 b Has a Low Obliquity

TOI-2076 b is a sub-Neptune-sized planet ($R= 2.39 \pm 0.10 {R_\oplus}$) that transits a young ($204 \pm 50 {MYr}$) bright ($V = 9.2$) K-dwarf hosting a system of three transiting planets. Using spectroscopic observations with the NEID spectrograph on the WIYN 3.5 m Telescope, we model the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect of TOI-2076 b, and derive a sky-projected obliquity of $λ=-3_{-15}^{+16\:\circ}$. Using the size of the star ($R=0.775 \pm0.015 {R_\odot}$), and the stellar rotation period ($P_{\mathrm{rot}}=7.27\pm0.23$ days), we estimate an obliquity of $ψ=18_{-9}^{+10\:\circ}$ ($ψ< 34^\circ$ at 95\% confidence), demonstrating that TOI-2076 b is on a well-aligned orbit. Simultaneous diffuser-assisted photometry from the 3.5 m Telescope at Apache Point Observatory rules out flares during the transit. TOI-2076 b joins a small but growing sample of young planets in compact multi-planet systems with well-aligned orbits, and is the fourth planet with an age $\lesssim 300$ Myr in a multi-transiting system with an obliquity measurement. The low obliquity of TOI-2076 b and the presence of transit timing variations in the system suggest the TOI-2076 system likely formed via convergent disk migration in an initially well-aligned disk.

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arXiv2023

TOI-5205 b: A Short-period Jovian Planet Transiting a Mid-M Dwarf

We present the discovery of TOI-5205~b, a transiting Jovian planet orbiting a solar metallicity M4V star, which was discovered using Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite photometry and then confirmed using a combination of precise radial velocities, ground-based photometry, spectra, and speckle imaging. TOI-5205~b has one of the highest mass ratios for M dwarf planets with a mass ratio of almost 0.3$\%$, as it orbits a host star that is just $0.392 \pm 0.015$ \solmass{}. Its planetary radius is $1.03 \pm 0.03~R_J$, while the mass is $1.08 \pm 0.06~M_J$. Additionally, the large size of the planet orbiting a small star results in a transit depth of $\sim 7\%$, making it one of the deepest transits of a confirmed exoplanet orbiting a main-sequence star. The large transit depth makes TOI-5205~b a compelling target to probe its atmospheric properties, as a means of tracing the potential formation pathways. While there have been radial-velocity-only discoveries of giant planets around mid-M dwarfs, this is the first transiting Jupiter with a mass measurement discovered around such a low-mass host star. The high mass of TOI-5205~b stretches conventional theories of planet formation and disk scaling relations that cannot easily recreate the conditions required to form such planets.

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arXiv2021

Non-detection of Helium in the upper atmospheres of TRAPPIST-1b, e and f

We obtained high-resolution spectra of the ultra-cool M-dwarf TRAPPIST-1 during the transit of its planet `b' using two high dispersion near-infrared spectrographs, IRD instrument on the Subaru 8.2m telescope and HPF instrument on the 10m Hobby-Eberly Telescope. These spectroscopic observations are complemented by a photometric transit observation for planet `b' using the APO/ARCTIC, which assisted us to capture the correct transit times for our transit spectroscopy. Using the data obtained by the new IRD and HPF observations, as well as the prior transit observations of planets `b', `e' and `f' from IRD, we attempt to constrain the atmospheric escape of the planet using the He I triplet 10830 Å absorption line. We do not detect evidence for any primordial extended H-He atmospheres in all three planets. To limit any planet related absorption, we place an upper limit on the equivalent widths of <7.754 mÅ for planet `b', <10.458 mÅ for planet `e', and <4.143 mÅ for planet `f' at 95% confidence from the IRD data, and <3.467 mÅ for planet `b' at 95% confidence from HPF data. Using these limits along with a solar-like composition isothermal Parker wind model, we attempt to constrain the mass-loss rates for the three planets. For TRAPPIST-1b, our models exclude the highest possible energy-limited rate for a wind temperature <5000 K. This non-detection of extended atmospheres having low mean-molecular weight in all three planets aids in further constraining their atmospheric composition by steering the focus towards the search of high molecular weight species in their atmospheres.

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arXiv2021

The Mega-MUSCLES Spectral Energy Distribution Of TRAPPIST-1

We present a 5A-100um Spectral Energy Distribution (SED) of the ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1, obtained as part of the Mega-MUSCLES Treasury Survey. The SED combines ultraviolet and blue-optical spectroscopy obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope, X-ray spectroscopy obtained with XMM-Newton, and models of the stellar photosphere, chromosphere, transition region and corona. A new Differential Emission Measure model of the unobserved extreme-ultraviolet spectrum is provided, improving on the Lyman alpha to EUV relations often used to estimate the 100-911A flux from low-mass stars. We describe the observations and models used, as well as the recipe for combining them into an SED. We also provide a semi-empirical, noise-free model of the stellar ultraviolet spectrum based on our observations for use in atmospheric modelling of the TRAPPIST-1 planets.

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arXiv2018

Diffuser-assisted Photometric Follow-up Observations of the Neptune-sized Planets K2-28b and K2-100b

We present precision transit observations of the Neptune-sized planets K2-28b and K2-100b, using the Engineered Diffuser on the ARCTIC imager on the ARC 3.5m Telescope at Apache Point Observatory. K2-28b is a $R_{p} = 2.56 R_\oplus$ mini-Neptune transiting a bright (J=11.7) metal-rich M4 dwarf, offering compelling prospects for future atmospheric characterization. K2-100b is a $R_{p} = 3.45 R_\oplus$ Neptune in the Praesepe Cluster and is one of few planets known in a cluster transiting a host star bright enough ($V=10.5$) for precision radial velocity observations. Using the precision photometric capabilities of the diffuser/ARCTIC system, allows us to achieve a precision of $105^{+87}_{-37}$ppm, and $38^{+21}_{-11}$ppm in 30 minute bins for K2-28b, and K2-100b, respectively. Our joint-fits to the K2 and ground-based light-curves give an order of magnitude improvement in the orbital ephemeris for both planets, yielding a timing precision of 2min in the JWST era. Although we show that the currently available broad-band measurements of K2-28b's radius are currently too imprecise to place useful constraints on K2-28b's atmosphere, we demonstrate that JWST/NIRISS will be able to discern between a cloudy/clear atmosphere in a modest number of transit observations. Our light-curve of K2-100b marks the first transit follow-up observation of this challenging-to-observe transit, where we obtain a transit depth of $819 \pm 50 \mathrm{ppm}$ in the SDSS $i^\prime$ band. We conclude that diffuser-assisted photometry can play an important role in the TESS era to perform timely and precise follow-up of the expected bounty of TESS planet candidates.

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arXiv2017

Modeling Repeated M-dwarf Flaring at an Earth-like Planet in the Habitable Zone: I. Atmospheric Effects for an Unmagnetized Planet

Understanding the impact of active M-dwarf stars on the atmospheric equilibrium and surface conditions of a habitable zone Earth-like planet is key to assessing M dwarf planet habitability. Previous modeling of the impact of electromagnetic (EM) radiation and protons from a single large flare on an Earth-like atmosphere indicated that significant and long-term reductions in ozone were possible, but the atmosphere recovered. These stars more realistically exhibit frequent flaring with a power-law distribution of energies. Here we use a coupled 1D photochemical and radiative-convective model to investigate the effects of repeated flaring on the photochemistry and surface UV of an Earth-like planet unprotected by an intrinsic magnetic field. We use time-resolved flare spectra obtained for the dM3 star AD Leo, combined with flare occurrence frequencies and total energies (typically 10$^{30.5}$ to 10$^{34}$ erg) from the 4-year Kepler light curve for the dM4 flare star GJ1243. Our model results show repeated EM-only flares have little effect on the ozone column depth, but that multiple proton events can rapidly destroy the ozone column. Combining the realistic flare and proton event frequencies with nominal CME & SEP geometries, we find the ozone column for an Earth-like planet can be depleted by 94% in 10 years, with a downward trend that makes recovery unlikely and suggests further destruction. For more extreme stellar inputs O3 depletion allows a constant 0.1-1 W m$^{-2}$ of UV-C at the planet's surface, which is likely detrimental to organic complexity. Our results suggest that active M dwarf hosts may comprehensively destroy ozone shields and subject the surface of magnetically-unprotected Earth-like planets to long-term radiation that can damage complex organic structures. However, this does not preclude habitability, as a safe haven for life could still exist below an ocean surface.

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arXiv2017

Towards Space-like Photometric Precision from the Ground with Beam-Shaping Diffusers

We demonstrate a path to hitherto unachievable differential photometric precisions from the ground, both in the optical and near-infrared (NIR), using custom-fabricated beam-shaping diffusers produced using specialized nanofabrication techniques. Such diffusers mold the focal plane image of a star into a broad and stable top-hat shape, minimizing photometric errors due to non-uniform pixel response, atmospheric seeing effects, imperfect guiding, and telescope-induced variable aberrations seen in defocusing. This PSF reshaping significantly increases the achievable dynamic range of our observations, increasing our observing efficiency and thus better averages over scintillation. Diffusers work in both collimated and converging beams. We present diffuser-assisted optical observations demonstrating $62^{+26}_{-16}$ppm precision in 30 minute bins on a nearby bright star 16-Cygni A (V=5.95) using the ARC 3.5m telescope---within a factor of $\sim$2 of Kepler's photometric precision on the same star. We also show a transit of WASP-85-Ab (V=11.2) and TRES-3b (V=12.4), where the residuals bin down to $180^{+66}_{-41}$ppm in 30 minute bins for WASP-85-Ab---a factor of $\sim$4 of the precision achieved by the K2 mission on this target---and to 101ppm for TRES-3b. In the NIR, where diffusers may provide even more significant improvements over the current state of the art, our preliminary tests have demonstrated $137^{+64}_{-36}$ppm precision for a $K_S =10.8$ star on the 200" Hale Telescope. These photometric precisions match or surpass the expected photometric precisions of TESS for the same magnitude range. This technology is inexpensive, scalable, easily adaptable, and can have an important and immediate impact on the observations of transits and secondary eclipses of exoplanets.

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arXiv2017

Science-Driven Optimization of the LSST Observing Strategy

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope is designed to provide an unprecedented optical imaging dataset that will support investigations of our Solar System, Galaxy and Universe, across half the sky and over ten years of repeated observation. However, exactly how the LSST observations will be taken (the observing strategy or "cadence") is not yet finalized. In this dynamically-evolving community white paper, we explore how the detailed performance of the anticipated science investigations is expected to depend on small changes to the LSST observing strategy. Using realistic simulations of the LSST schedule and observation properties, we design and compute diagnostic metrics and Figures of Merit that provide quantitative evaluations of different observing strategies, analyzing their impact on a wide range of proposed science projects. This is work in progress: we are using this white paper to communicate to each other the relative merits of the observing strategy choices that could be made, in an effort to maximize the scientific value of the survey. The investigation of some science cases leads to suggestions for new strategies that could be simulated and potentially adopted. Notably, we find motivation for exploring departures from a spatially uniform annual tiling of the sky: focusing instead on different parts of the survey area in different years in a "rolling cadence" is likely to have significant benefits for a number of time domain and moving object astronomy projects. The communal assembly of a suite of quantified and homogeneously coded metrics is the vital first step towards an automated, systematic, science-based assessment of any given cadence simulation, that will enable the scheduling of the LSST to be as well-informed as possible.

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arXiv2016

Maximizing Science in the Era of LSST: A Community-Based Study of Needed US Capabilities

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will be a discovery machine for the astronomy and physics communities, revealing astrophysical phenomena from the Solar System to the outer reaches of the observable Universe. While many discoveries will be made using LSST data alone, taking full scientific advantage of LSST will require ground-based optical-infrared (OIR) supporting capabilities, e.g., observing time on telescopes, instrumentation, computing resources, and other infrastructure. This community-based study identifies, from a science-driven perspective, capabilities that are needed to maximize LSST science. Expanding on the initial steps taken in the 2015 OIR System Report, the study takes a detailed, quantitative look at the capabilities needed to accomplish six representative LSST-enabled science programs that connect closely with scientific priorities from the 2010 decadal surveys. The study prioritizes the resources needed to accomplish the science programs and highlights ways that existing, planned, and future resources could be positioned to accomplish the science goals.

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arXiv2015

Characterizing the Habitable Zones of Exoplanetary Systems with a Large Ultraviolet/Visible/Near-IR Space Observatory

Understanding the surface and atmospheric conditions of Earth-size, rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of low-mass stars is currently one of the greatest astronomical endeavors. Knowledge of the planetary effective surface temperature alone is insufficient to accurately interpret biosignature gases when they are observed in the coming decades. The UV stellar spectrum drives and regulates the upper atmospheric heating and chemistry on Earth-like planets, is critical to the definition and interpretation of biosignature gases, and may even produce false-positives in our search for biologic activity. This white paper briefly describes the scientific motivation for panchromatic observations of exoplanetary systems as a whole (star and planet), argues that a future NASA UV/Vis/near-IR space observatory is well-suited to carry out this work, and describes technology development goals that can be achieved in the next decade to support the development of a UV/Vis/near-IR flagship mission in the 2020s.

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arXiv2012

DRAFTS: A Deep, Rapid Archival Flare Transient Search in the Galactic Bulge

We utilize the Sagittarius Window Eclipsing Extrasolar Planet Search (SWEEPS) HST/ACS dataset for a Deep Rapid Archival Flare Transient Search (DRAFTS) to constrain the flare rate toward the older stellar population in the Galactic bulge. During 7 days of monitoring 229,293 stars brighter than V=29.5, we find evidence for flaring activity in 105 stars between V=20 and V=28. We divided the sample into non-variable stars and variable stars whose light curves contain large-scale variability. The flare rate on variable stars is \sim 700 times that of non-variable stars, with a significant correlation between the amount of underlying stellar variability and peak flare amplitude. The flare energy loss rates are generally higher than those of nearby well-studied single dMe flare stars. The distribution of proper motions is consistent with the flaring stars being at the distance and age of the Galactic bulge. If they are single dwarfs, they span a range of \approx 1.0 - 0.25M\odot. A majority of the flaring stars exhibit periodic photometric modulations with P <3d. If these are tidally locked magnetically active binary systems, their fraction in the bulge is enhanced by a factor of \sim20 compared to the local value. These stars may be useful for placing constraints on the angular momentum evolution of cool close binary stars. Our results expand the type of stars studied for flares in the optical band, and suggest that future sensitive optical time-domain studies will have to contend with a larger sample of flaring stars than the M dwarf flare stars usually considered.

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arXiv2010

The Effect of a Strong Stellar Flare on the Atmospheric Chemistry of an Earth-like Planet Orbiting an M dwarf

Main sequence M stars pose an interesting problem for astrobiology: their abundance in our galaxy makes them likely targets in the hunt for habitable planets, but their strong chromospheric activity produces high energy radiation and charged particles that may be detrimental to life. We studied the impact of the 1985 April 12 flare from the M dwarf, AD Leonis (AD Leo), simulating the effects from both UV radiation and protons on the atmospheric chemistry of a hypothetical, Earth-like planet located within its habitable zone. Based on observations of solar proton events and the Neupert effect we estimated a proton flux associated with the flare of $5.9\times 10^{8}$ protons cm$^{-2}$ sr$^{-1}$ s$^{-1}$ for particles with energies >10 MeV. Then we calculated the abundance of nitrogen oxides produced by the flare by scaling the production of these compounds during a large solar proton event called the "Carrington event". The simulations were performed using a 1-D photochemical model coupled to a 1-D radiative/convective model. Our results indicate that the ultraviolet radiation emitted during the flare does not produce a significant change in the ozone column depth of the planet. When the action of protons is included, the ozone depletion reached a maximum of 94% two years after the flare for a planet with no magnetic field. At the peak of the flare, the calculated UV fluxes that reach the surface, in the wavelength ranges that are damaging for life, exceed those received on Earth during less than 100 s. Flares may therefore not present a direct hazard for life on the surface of an orbiting habitable planet. Given that AD Leo is one of the most magnetically-active M dwarfs known, this conclusion should apply to planets around other M dwarfs with lower levels of chromospheric activity.

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arXiv2009

X-Ray-Emitting Stars Identified from the ROSAT All-Sky Survey and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

The ROSAT All-Sky Survey (RASS) was the first imaging X-ray survey of the entire sky. While X-ray source counterparts are known to range from distant quasars to nearby M dwarfs, the RASS data alone are often insufficient to determine the nature of an X-ray source. As a result, large-scale follow-up programs are required to construct samples of known X-ray emitters. We use optical data produced by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) to identify 709 stellar X-ray emitters cataloged in the RASS and falling within the SDSS Data Release 1 footprint. Most of these are bright stars with coronal X-ray emission unsuitable for SDSS spectroscopy, which is designed for fainter objects (g > 15 mag). Instead, we use SDSS photometry, correlations with the Two Micron All Sky Survey and other catalogs, and spectroscopy from the Apache Point Observatory 3.5 m telescope to identify these stellar X-ray counterparts. Our sample of 707 X-ray-emitting F, G, K, and M stars is one of the largest X-ray-selected samples of such stars. We derive distances to these stars using photometric parallax relations appropriate for dwarfs on the main sequence, and use these distances to calculate LX. We also identify a previously unknown cataclysmic variable (CV) as a RASS counterpart. Separately, we use correlations of the RASS and the SDSS spectroscopic catalogs of CVs and white dwarfs (WDs) to study the properties of these rarer X-ray-emitting stars. We examine the relationship between (fX/fg) and the equivalent width of the Hbeta emission line for 46 X-ray-emitting CVs and discuss tentative classifications for a subset based on these quantities. We identify 17 new X-ray-emitting DA (hydrogen) WDs, of which three are newly identified WDs. (abridged)

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arXiv2008

The Milky Way Tomography with SDSS: II. Stellar Metallicity

Using effective temperature and metallicity derived from SDSS spectra for ~60,000 F and G type main sequence stars (0.2<g-r<0.6), we develop polynomial models for estimating these parameters from the SDSS u-g and g-r colors. We apply this method to SDSS photometric data for about 2 million F/G stars and measure the unbiased metallicity distribution for a complete volume-limited sample of stars at distances between 500 pc and 8 kpc. The metallicity distribution can be exquisitely modeled using two components with a spatially varying number ratio, that correspond to disk and halo. The two components also possess the kinematics expected for disk and halo stars. The metallicity of the halo component is spatially invariant, while the median disk metallicity smoothly decreases with distance from the Galactic plane from -0.6 at 500 pc to -0.8 beyond several kpc. The absence of a correlation between metallicity and kinematics for disk stars is in a conflict with the traditional decomposition in terms of thin and thick disks. We detect coherent substructures in the kinematics--metallicity space, such as the Monoceros stream, which rotates faster than the LSR, and has a median metallicity of [Fe/H]=-0.96, with an rms scatter of only ~0.15 dex. We extrapolate our results to the performance expected from the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) and estimate that the LSST will obtain metallicity measurements accurate to 0.2 dex or better, with proper motion measurements accurate to ~0.2 mas/yr, for about 200 million F/G dwarf stars within a distance limit of ~100 kpc (g<23.5). [abridged]

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