arXiv subjects

Sylvain Arlot

Publications and source records attributed to Sylvain Arlot.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Post Hoc Inference for Component Attribution in Multivariate Change-Point Detection

We consider the post-detection analysis of change-points for multivariate time series, with the goal of identifying which coordinates are responsible for a detected change. After a change-point has been located by an offline detection algorithm, we propose post hoc statistical procedures to determine whether the change occurs in either of two predefined blocks of coordinates or in both. Our methods rely on two-sample testing procedures with a particular focus on nonparametric tests; we provide theoretical guarantees for Type I error control. Simulations and a real-data experiment demonstrate the strong performance of the proposed procedures.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Marginal and training-conditional guarantees in one-shot federated conformal prediction

We study conformal prediction in the one-shot federated learning setting. The main goal is to compute marginally and training-conditionally valid prediction sets, at the server-level, in only one round of communication between the agents and the server. Using the quantile-of-quantiles family of estimators and split conformal prediction, we introduce a collection of computationally-efficient and distribution-free algorithms that satisfy the aforementioned requirements. Our approaches come from theoretical results related to order statistics and the analysis of the Beta-Beta distribution. We also prove upper bounds on the coverage of all proposed algorithms when the nonconformity scores are almost surely distinct. For algorithms with training-conditional guarantees, these bounds are of the same order of magnitude as those of the centralized case. Remarkably, this implies that the one-shot federated learning setting entails no significant loss compared to the centralized case. Our experiments confirm that our algorithms return prediction sets with coverage and length similar to those obtained in a centralized setting.

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arXiv2023

One-Shot Federated Conformal Prediction

In this paper, we introduce a conformal prediction method to construct prediction sets in a oneshot federated learning setting. More specifically, we define a quantile-of-quantiles estimator and prove that for any distribution, it is possible to output prediction sets with desired coverage in only one round of communication. To mitigate privacy issues, we also describe a locally differentially private version of our estimator. Finally, over a wide range of experiments, we show that our method returns prediction sets with coverage and length very similar to those obtained in a centralized setting. Overall, these results demonstrate that our method is particularly well-suited to perform conformal predictions in a one-shot federated learning setting.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

A Conditional Randomization Test for Sparse Logistic Regression in High-Dimension

Identifying the relevant variables for a classification model with correct confidence levels is a central but difficult task in high-dimension. Despite the core role of sparse logistic regression in statistics and machine learning, it still lacks a good solution for accurate inference in the regime where the number of features $p$ is as large as or larger than the number of samples $n$. Here, we tackle this problem by improving the Conditional Randomization Test (CRT). The original CRT algorithm shows promise as a way to output p-values while making few assumptions on the distribution of the test statistics. As it comes with a prohibitive computational cost even in mildly high-dimensional problems, faster solutions based on distillation have been proposed. Yet, they rely on unrealistic hypotheses and result in low-power solutions. To improve this, we propose \emph{CRT-logit}, an algorithm that combines a variable-distillation step and a decorrelation step that takes into account the geometry of $\ell_1$-penalized logistic regression problem. We provide a theoretical analysis of this procedure, and demonstrate its effectiveness on simulations, along with experiments on large-scale brain-imaging and genomics datasets.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Online Orthogonal Matching Pursuit

Greedy algorithms for feature selection are widely used for recovering sparse high-dimensional vectors in linear models. In classical procedures, the main emphasis was put on the sample complexity, with little or no consideration of the computation resources required. We present a novel online algorithm: Online Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (OOMP) for online support recovery in the random design setting of sparse linear regression. Our procedure selects features sequentially, alternating between allocation of samples only as needed to candidate features, and optimization over the selected set of variables to estimate the regression coefficients. Theoretical guarantees about the output of this algorithm are proven and its computational complexity is analysed.

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arXiv2020

Aggregation of Multiple Knockoffs

We develop an extension of the Knockoff Inference procedure, introduced by Barber and Candes (2015). This new method, called Aggregation of Multiple Knockoffs (AKO), addresses the instability inherent to the random nature of Knockoff-based inference. Specifically, AKO improves both the stability and power compared with the original Knockoff algorithm while still maintaining guarantees for False Discovery Rate control. We provide a new inference procedure, prove its core properties, and demonstrate its benefits in a set of experiments on synthetic and real datasets.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

Minimal penalties and the slope heuristics: a survey

Birg{é} and Massart proposed in 2001 the slope heuristics as a way to choose optimally from data an unknown multiplicative constant in front of a penalty. It is built upon the notion of minimal penalty, and it has been generalized since to some "minimal-penalty algorithms". This paper reviews the theoretical results obtained for such algorithms, with a self-contained proof in the simplest framework, precise proof ideas for further generalizations, and a few new results. Explicit connections are made with residual-variance estimators-with an original contribution on this topic, showing that for this task the slope heuristics performs almost as well as a residual-based estimator with the best model choice-and some classical algorithms such as L-curve or elbow heuristics, Mallows' C p , and Akaike's FPE. Practical issues are also addressed, including two new practical definitions of minimal-penalty algorithms that are compared on synthetic data to previously-proposed definitions. Finally, several conjectures and open problems are suggested as future research directions.

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arXiv2019

Rejoinder on: Minimal penalties and the slope heuristics: a survey

This text is the rejoinder following the discussion of a survey paper about minimal penalties and the slope heuristics (Arlot, 2019. Minimal penalties and the slope heuristics: a survey. Journal de la SFDS). While commenting on the remarks made by the discussants, it provides two new results about the slope heuristics for model selection among a collection of projection estimators in least-squares fixed-design regression. First, we prove that the slope heuristics works even when all models are significantly biased. Second, when the noise is Gaussian with a general dependence structure, we compute expectations of key quantities, showing that the slope heuristics certainly is valid in this setting also.

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arXiv2019

Aggregated Hold-Out

Aggregated hold-out (Agghoo) is a method which averages learning rules selected by hold-out (that is, cross-validation with a single split). We provide the first theoretical guarantees on Agghoo, ensuring that it can be used safely: Agghoo performs at worst like the hold-out when the risk is convex. The same holds true in classification with the 0-1 risk, with an additional constant factor. For the hold-out, oracle inequalities are known for bounded losses, as in binary classification. We show that similar results can be proved, under appropriate assumptions, for other risk-minimization problems. In particular, we obtain an oracle inequality for regularized kernel regression with a Lip-schitz loss, without requiring that the Y variable or the regressors be bounded. Numerical experiments show that aggregation brings a significant improvement over the hold-out and that Agghoo is competitive with cross-validation.

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arXiv2019

A Kernel Multiple Change-point Algorithm via Model Selection

We tackle the change-point problem with data belonging to a general set. We build a penalty for choosing the number of change-points in the kernel-based method of Harchaoui and Capp{é} (2007). This penalty generalizes the one proposed by Lebarbier (2005) for one-dimensional signals. We prove a non-asymptotic oracle inequality for the proposed method, thanks to a new concentration result for some function of Hilbert-space valued random variables. Experiments on synthetic data illustrate the accuracy of our method, showing that it can detect changes in the whole distribution of data, even when the mean and variance are constant.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

Coupling the Yoccoz-Birkeland population model with price dynamics: chaotic livestock commodities market cycles

We propose a new model for the time evolution of livestock commodities which exhibits endogenous deterministic stochastic behaviour. The model is based on the Yoccoz-Birkeland integral equation, a model first developed for studying the time-evolution of single species with high average fertility, a relatively short mating season and density dependent reproduction rates. This equation is then coupled with a differential equation describing the price of a livestock commodity driven by the unbalance between its demand and supply. At its birth the cattle population is split into two parts: reproducing females and cattle for butchery. The relative amount of the two is determined by the spot price of the meat. We prove the existence of an attractor and we investigate numerically its properties: the strange attractor existing for the original Yoccoz-Birkeland model is persistent but its chaotic behaviour depends also from the price evolution in an essential way.

math.DS↗

arXiv2017

Cross-validation improved by aggregation: Agghoo

Cross-validation is widely used for selecting among a family of learning rules. This paper studies a related method, called aggregated hold-out (Agghoo), which mixes cross-validation with aggregation; Agghoo can also be related to bagging. According to numerical experiments, Agghoo can improve significantly cross-validation's prediction error, at the same computational cost; this makes it very promising as a general-purpose tool for prediction. We provide the first theoretical guarantees on Agghoo, in the supervised classification setting, ensuring that one can use it safely: at worse, Agghoo performs like the hold-out, up to a constant factor. We also prove a non-asymptotic oracle inequality, in binary classification under the margin condition, which is sharp enough to get (fast) minimax rates.

math.ST↗

arXiv2017

Consistent change-point detection with kernels

In this paper we study the kernel change-point algorithm (KCP) proposed by Arlot, Celisse and Harchaoui (2012), which aims at locating an unknown number of change-points in the distribution of a sequence of independent data taking values in an arbitrary set. The change-points are selected by model selection with a penalized kernel empirical criterion. We provide a non-asymptotic result showing that, with high probability, the KCP procedure retrieves the correct number of change-points, provided that the constant in the penalty is well-chosen; in addition, KCP estimates the change-points location at the optimal rate. As a consequence, when using a characteristic kernel, KCP detects all kinds of change in the distribution (not only changes in the mean or the variance), and it is able to do so for complex structured data (not necessarily in $\mathbb{R}^d$). Most of the analysis is conducted assuming that the kernel is bounded; part of the results can be extended when we only assume a finite second-order moment.

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arXiv2017

Cross-validation

This text is a survey on cross-validation. We define all classical cross-validation procedures, and we study their properties for two different goals: estimating the risk of a given estimator, and selecting the best estimator among a given family. For the risk estimation problem, we compute the bias (which can also be corrected) and the variance of cross-validation methods. For estimator selection, we first provide a first-order analysis (based on expectations). Then, we explain how to take into account second-order terms (from variance computations, and by taking into account the usefulness of overpenalization). This allows, in the end, to provide some guidelines for choosing the best cross-validation method for a given learning problem.

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arXiv2016

Comments on: "A Random Forest Guided Tour" by G. Biau and E. Scornet

This paper is a comment on the survey paper by Biau and Scornet (2016) about random forests. We focus on the problem of quantifying the impact of each ingredient of random forests on their performance. We show that such a quantification is possible for a simple pure forest , leading to conclusions that could apply more generally. Then, we consider "hold-out" random forests, which are a good middle point between "toy" pure forests and Breiman's original random forests.

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arXiv2015

Choice of V for V-Fold Cross-Validation in Least-Squares Density Estimation

This paper studies V-fold cross-validation for model selection in least-squares density estimation. The goal is to provide theoretical grounds for choosing V in order to minimize the least-squares loss of the selected estimator. We first prove a non-asymptotic oracle inequality for V-fold cross-validation and its bias-corrected version (V-fold penalization). In particular, this result implies that V-fold penalization is asymptotically optimal in the nonparametric case. Then, we compute the variance of V-fold cross-validation and related criteria, as well as the variance of key quantities for model selection performance. We show that these variances depend on V like 1+4/(V-1), at least in some particular cases, suggesting that the performance increases much from V=2 to V=5 or 10, and then is almost constant. Overall, this can explain the common advice to take V=5---at least in our setting and when the computational power is limited---, as supported by some simulation experiments. An oracle inequality and exact formulas for the variance are also proved for Monte-Carlo cross-validation, also known as repeated cross-validation, where the parameter V is replaced by the number B of random splits of the data.

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arXiv2015

Semidefinite and Spectral Relaxations for Multi-Label Classification

In this paper, we address the problem of multi-label classification. We consider linear classifiers and propose to learn a prior over the space of labels to directly leverage the performance of such methods. This prior takes the form of a quadratic function of the labels and permits to encode both attractive and repulsive relations between labels. We cast this problem as a structured prediction one aiming at optimizing either the accuracies of the predictors or the F 1-score. This leads to an optimization problem closely related to the max-cut problem, which naturally leads to semidefinite and spectral relaxations. We show on standard datasets how such a general prior can improve the performances of multi-label techniques.

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arXiv2014

Metric Learning for Temporal Sequence Alignment

In this paper, we propose to learn a Mahalanobis distance to perform alignment of multivariate time series. The learning examples for this task are time series for which the true alignment is known. We cast the alignment problem as a structured prediction task, and propose realistic losses between alignments for which the optimization is tractable. We provide experiments on real data in the audio to audio context, where we show that the learning of a similarity measure leads to improvements in the performance of the alignment task. We also propose to use this metric learning framework to perform feature selection and, from basic audio features, build a combination of these with better performance for the alignment.

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