arXiv subjects

Ted von Hippel

Publications and source records attributed to Ted von Hippel.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Precise Stellar Age Constraints and Habitable Zone Evolution in Exoplanet Systems

Accurate stellar ages are fundamental to interpreting the evolutionary histories of habitable zone (HZ) planets. Because stellar luminosity evolves over time, HZ boundaries migrate outward, meaning that present-day HZ planets may have experienced different irradiation environments earlier in their evolution. Accurate ages are therefore required to estimate HZ residence times and place planetary habitability in an evolutionary context. We use the Bayesian Analysis of Stellar Evolution with nine parameters (BASE-9) code to constrain ages and masses for exoplanet host stars with planets located in the HZ. Our sample includes single stars with effective temperatures of 4475-7200 K that host planets within their calculated HZ boundaries. We fit isochrones to broadband photometry from Gaia DR3, Pan-STARRS, and 2MASS jointly with Gaia parallaxes, spectroscopic metallicities, and extinction estimates, and assess the resulting age posterior distributions. Using these age constraints, we track HZ migration along stellar evolutionary sequences to estimate continuous HZ residence times, allowing us to identify ideal targets for followup high resolution characterization. Because isochrones separate most strongly near and beyond the main-sequence turnoff, our analysis emphasizes evolved and turnoff hosts, where BASE-9 produces the tightest constraints. We quantify age precision across the sample, yielding highly precise ages for subgiants and evolved main-sequence or turnoff stars, and less precise but measurable ages for lower main-sequence hosts. The final catalog provides our age constraints for 149 HZ planets around 146 host stars and supports evolutionary interpretations of planetary histories.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Spectroscopic Monitoring of Metal Lines in Polluted White Dwarfs

The disruption and accretion of planetary material onto white dwarfs is expected to be inherently dynamic and stochastic, potentially driving variability in the accretion rate and therefore the shape and depth of the photospheric metal absorption lines. This paper presents an 18-year optical spectroscopic monitoring campaign of five warm (11,000-23,000K) polluted white dwarfs with sinking timescales of days-months, observed using Magellan/MIKE and SALT/HRS to directly test this prediction. At four of the five systems, no statistically significant variability is detected over baselines of 15-18 years corresponding to hundreds to thousands of diffusion timescales, with inferred accretion rates stable to within 15-30% (1$σ$) showing remarkably stable accretion on decadal timescales. This implies that either the processes maintaining the accretion of the disrupted planetary material are stable on the same timescales, or that currently uncharacterized photospheric processes act to smooth observable abundance variations on these timescales. The one exception, WD 0106$-$328, shows statistically significant variability in the 4481A Mg II doublet from the ground-based data. Yet no significant equivalent width or abundance changes are seen between two Hubble Space Telescope ultraviolet spectra taken in 2016 and 2025, despite probing a larger set of transitions. This may imply that the ground-based observations witnessed a stochastic excursion from a stable baseline accretion rate, rather than a sustained change in the bulk accretion rate.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

From Hubble to HWO: Bridging the Frontier of White Dwarf Exoplanet Science

White dwarf stars, the endpoint of stellar evolution for 97% of stars in our Milky Way, offer a unique and powerful window into the bulk elemental composition of rocky exoplanetary bodies. Up to 50% of single white dwarfs are observed with photospheric metal lines from accreted exoplanetary bodies (called 'polluted' white dwarfs), and spectroscopic observations reveal the bulk composition of this material. High-resolution (R>15,000) UV spectra are essential for detecting many elements present in the material, such as the volatile elements imperative for habitability studies (C, N, O, P, S) and key rock-forming elements required to constrain interior structure (e.g. Fe, Si, Mg, Al, Ni). HST, through its COS and STIS spectrographs, remains the only facility capable of performing this science in the near future. Looking to the next decade, the scientific case for continued HST UV observations of polluted white dwarfs is compelling on three fronts (i) as a standalone to enable the bulk composition of exoplanetary material to be measured in a statistically significant sample, (ii) as essential groundwork for the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO), and (iii) in a powerful synergy with JWST, to enable characterization of the bulk mineralogy and bulk elemental composition of exoplanetary material. This white paper argues that continued UV spectroscopic capabilities with HST is a high-return investment for white dwarf and exoplanet science, and preserving and prioritizing HST's UV capabilities through at least 2035 is crucial to maximize the scientific return from HST, JWST, and HWO.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Estimating Complex Densities using Two-Stage Normalizing Flows

In many scientific applications, the target probability distribution cannot be evaluated in closed form or sampled from directly. Instead, it can often be decomposed into multiple components, some of which are accessible only through samples generated by simulators or external datasets, while others admit tractable mathematical expressions or are specified through statistical assumptions about variable relationships. Developing inference methods that coherently integrate these heterogeneous sources of information remains an open challenge. In this paper, we propose a Two-Stage Normalizing Flows framework for approximating and sampling from such distributions. The method first learns the densities of components for which only samples are available, and then combines the outputs with the analytically specified terms to reconstruct the full target distribution in a second stage. The resulting model enables both point-wise density evaluation and efficient generation of representative samples, without requiring direct access to the full target density or joint samples from the complete model. We assess the proposed approach through simulation studies in joint density inference and Bayesian hierarchical models with inaccessible likelihoods. The proposed framework is able to accurately recover complex, highly nonlinear target structures using only partial information about the target density, providing stable and flexible approximations in settings where standard modeling assumptions do not hold (or when complete access to the target distribution is not available). Analysis of a large scale astronomy application highlights interesting differences between our method and existing approaches. Our normalizing flows procedure offers a robust and flexible approach to inference for intractable target distributions across both simulated and real-world applications.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Composition of planetary debris around the white dwarf GD 362

White dwarf stars with high abundances of heavy elements in their atmospheres and infrared excesses are believed to be accreting planetary material. GD 362 is one of the most heavily polluted white dwarfs and has an exceptionally strong mid-infrared excess, reprocessing 2.4% of the star's light into the mid-infrared. We present a high signal-to-noise, medium-resolution spectrum of GD 362 obtained with JWST, covering 0.6 to 17 microns, along with photometry out to 25.5 microns. The mid-infrared spectrum is dominated by an exceptionally strong 9 to 11 micron silicate feature, which can be explained by a combination of olivine and pyroxene silicate minerals. Grains such as carbon, hotter than silicates, are required to explain the near-infrared emission. The silicates and carbon reside in a disk from 140 to 1400 stellar radii, and the disk scale height is greater than half the stellar radius. The elemental abundances of the solid material, relative to Si, are within a factor of 2 of meteoritic (CI chondrites) for C, O, Mg, Al, and Fe, with Al elevated and O slightly depleted. A similar pattern is observed for the abundances of accreted material in the stellar photosphere. Hydrogen is an exception, because no significant H-bearing minerals or water were detected in the disk, despite a large H abundance in the photosphere.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Binary Systems Search with TESS

Hot subdwarf B (sdB) stars are post-main-sequence stars of high temperature and gravity. Approximately 30$\%$ of sdBs exhibit stable pressure and/or gravity-mode pulsations, which can be used via the timing method to test for companion stars and determine their orbital solutions. We used short cadence data from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) to search for previously undiscovered companions to sdBs. In this paper, we focus on searching for companions with orbital periods shorter than 13.5$\,$d which are detectable within one sector of TESS data (about 27$\,d$). The timing method requires that we derive pulsation frequencies in subsets of data significantly shorter than the periods we are searching for, which we set at 0.5 to 1.5$\,$d. We investigated ten sdB stars with previously detected p-mode pulsations for which at least one p-mode pulsation remains detectable with a signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) $>$ 4 within data subsets of duration 0.5 - 1.5$\,$d. We find that two (TIC$\,$202354658 and TIC$\,$69298924) of these ten sdB stars likely have white dwarf companions and set limits on companion masses for the other eight sdB stars.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

A Demonstration of Interstellar Navigation Using New Horizons

As NASA's New Horizons spacecraft exits the Solar System bound for interstellar space, it has traveled so far that the nearest stars have shifted markedly from their positions seen from Earth. We demonstrated this by imaging the Proxima Centauri and Wolf 359 fields from Earth and New Horizons on 2020 April 23, when the spacecraft was 47.1 au distant. The observed parallaxes for Proxima Centauri and Wolf 359 are $32.4''$ and $15.7'',$ respectively. These measurements are not of research grade, but directly seeing large stellar parallaxes between two widely separated simultaneous observers is vividly educational. Using the New Horizons positions of the two stars alone, referenced to the three-dimensional model of the solar neighborhood constructed from Gaia DR3 astrometry, further provides the spacecraft spatial position relative to nearby stars with 0.44 au accuracy. The range to New Horizons from the Solar System barycenter is recovered to 0.27 au accuracy, and its angular direction to $0.4^\circ$ accuracy, when compared to the precise values from NASA Deep Space Network tracking. This is the first time optical stellar astrometry has been used to determine the three-dimensional location of a spacecraft with respect to nearby stars, and the first time any method of interstellar navigation has been demonstrated for a spacecraft on an interstellar trajectory. We conclude that the best astrometric approach to navigating spacecraft on their departures to interstellar space is to use a single pair of the closest stars as references, rather than a large sample of more distant stars.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2024

Investigating Mass Segregation of the Binary Stars in the Open Cluster NGC 6819

We search for mass segregation in the intermediate-aged open cluster NGC 6819 within a carefully identified sample of probable cluster members. Using photometry from the Gaia, 2MASS, and Pan-STARRS surveys as inputs for a Bayesian statistics software suite, BASE-9, we identify a rich population of (photometric) binaries and derive posterior distributions for the cluster age, distance, metallicity and reddening as well as star-by-star photometric membership probabilities, masses and mass ratios (for binaries). Within our entire sample, we find 2632 cluster members and 777 binaries. We then select a main-sequence 'primary sample' with 14.85 < G < 19.5 containing 1342 cluster members and 250 binaries with mass ratios q > 0.5, to investigate for mass segregation. Within this primary sample, we find the binary radial distribution is significantly shifted toward the cluster center as compared to the single stars, resulting in a binary fraction that increases significantly toward the cluster core. Furthermore, we find that within the binary sample, more massive binaries have more centrally concentrated radial distributions than less massive binaries. The same is true for the single stars. We verify the expectation of mass segregation for this stellar sample in NGC 6819 through both relaxation time arguments and by investigating a sophisticated N-body model of the cluster. Importantly, this is the first study to investigate mass segregation of the binaries in the open cluster NGC 6819.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Tracing the Origins of Mass Segregation in M35: Evidence for Primordially Segregated Binaries

M35 is a young open cluster and home to an extensive binary population. Using Gaia DR3, Pan-STARRS, and 2MASS photometry with the Bayesian statistical software, BASE-9, we derive precise cluster parameters, identify single and binary cluster members, and extract their masses. We identify 571 binaries down to Gaia G = 20.3 and a lower-limit on the binary frequency of f_b = 0.41 +/- 0.02. We extend the binary demographics by many magnitudes faint-ward of previous (radial-velocity) studies of this cluster and further away from the cluster center (1.78-degrees, roughly 10 core radii). We find the binary stars to be more centrally concentrated than the single stars in the cluster. Furthermore, we find strong evidence for mass segregation within the binary population itself, with progressively more massive binary samples becoming more and more centrally concentrated. For the single stars, we find weaker evidence for mass segregation; only the most massive single stars (> 2.5MSun) appear more centrally concentrated. Given the cluster age of ~200 Myr, and our derived half-mass relaxation time for the cluster of 230 +/- 84 Myr, we estimate ~47% of the binary stars and ~12% of single stars in the cluster have had time to become dynamically mass segregated. Importantly, when we investigate only stars with mass segregation timescales greater than the cluster age, we still find the binaries to be more centrally concentrated than the singles, suggesting the binaries may have formed with a primordially different spatial distribution than the single stars.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Goodbye to Chi-by-Eye: A Bayesian Analysis of Photometric Binaries in Six Open Clusters

We present a robust methodology for identifying photometric binaries in star clusters. Using Gaia DR3, Pan-STARRS and 2MASS data, we self-consistently define the cluster parameters and binary demographics for the open clusters (OCs) NGC 2168 (M35), NGC 7789, NGC 6819, NGC 2682 (M67), NGC 188, and NGC 6791. These clusters span in age from ~200 Myr (NGC 2168) to more than ~8 Gyr (NGC 6791) and have all been extensively studied in the literature. We use the Bayesian Analysis of Stellar Evolution software suite (BASE-9) to derive the age, distance, reddening, metallicity, binary fraction, and binary mass-ratio posterior distributions for each cluster. We perform a careful analysis of our completeness and also compare our results to previous spectroscopic surveys. For our sample of main-sequence stars with masses between 0.6 - 1 M_Sun, we find that these OCs have similar binary fractions that are also broadly consistent with the field multiplicity fraction. Within the clusters, the binary fraction increases dramatically toward the cluster centers, likely a result of mass segregation. Furthermore nearly all clusters show evidence of mass segregation within the single and binary populations, respectively. The OC binary fraction increases significantly with cluster age in our sample, possibly due to a combination of mass-segregation and cluster dissolution processes. We also find a hint of an anti-correlation between binary fraction and cluster central density as well as total cluster mass, possibly due to an increasing frequency of higher energy close stellar encounters that inhibit long-period binary survival and/or formation.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

A Monte Carlo Method for Evaluating Empirical Gyrochronology Models and its Application to Wide Binary Benchmarks

Accurate stellar ages are essential for our understanding of the star formation history of the Milky Way, Galactic chemical evolution, and to constrain exoplanet formation models. Gyrochronology, a relationship between stellar rotation and age, appears to offer a reliable age indicator for main sequence (MS) stars over the mass range of approximately 0.6 to 1.3 $M_\odot$. Those stars lose their angular momentum due to magnetic braking and as a result, their rotation speeds decrease with age. Although current gyrochronology relations are fairly well tested for young MS stars with masses greater than 1 $M_\odot$, primarily in young open clusters, insufficient tests exist for older and lower mass MS stars. Binary stars offer the potential to expand and fill in the range of ages and metallicity over which gyrochronology can be empirically tested. In this paper, we demonstrate a Monte Carlo approach to evaluate gyrochronology models using binary stars. As examples, we used five previously published wide binary pairs. We also demonstrate a Monte Carlo approach to assess the precision and accuracy of ages derived from each gyrochronology model. For the traditional Skumanich models, the age uncertainties are $σ_{age}$/$age$ = 15-20\% for stars with $B-V$ = 0.65, and $σ_{age}$/$age$ = 5-10\% for stars with $B-V$ = 1.5 and rotation period P $\leq$ 20 days.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Improving white dwarfs as chronometers with Gaia parallaxes and spectroscopic metallicities

White dwarfs (WDs) offer unrealized potential in solving two problems in astrophysics: stellar age accuracy and precision. WD cooling ages can be inferred from surface temperatures and radii, which can be constrained with precision by high quality photometry and parallaxes. Accurate and precise Gaia parallaxes along with photometric surveys provide information to derive cooling and total ages for vast numbers of WDs. Here we analyse 1372 WDs found in wide binaries with MS companions, and report on the cooling and total age precision attainable in these WD+MS systems. The total age of a WD can be further constrained if its original metallicity is known, because the main-sequence (MS) progenitor lifetime depends on metallicity at fixed mass, yet metallicity is unavailable via spectroscopy of the WD. We show that incorporating spectroscopic metallicity constraints from 38 wide binary MS companions substantially decreases internal uncertainties in WD total ages compared to a uniform constraint. Averaged over the 38 stars in our sample, the total (internal) age uncertainty improves from 21.04% to 16.77% when incorporating the spectroscopic constraint. Higher mass WDs yield better total age precision; for 8 WDs with zero age main sequence masses $\geq$ 2.0 solar masses, the mean uncertainty in total ages improves from 8.61% to 4.54% when incorporating spectroscopic metallicities. We find that it is often possible to achieve 5% total age precision for WDs with progenitor masses above 2.0 solar masses if parallaxes with $\leq$ 1% precision and Pan-STARRS $g, r$, and $i$ photometry with $\leq$ 0.01 mag precision are available.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Collisions in a gas-rich white dwarf planetary debris disc

WD 0145+234 is a white dwarf that is accreting metals from a circumstellar disc of planetary material. It has exhibited a substantial and sustained increase in 3-5 micron flux since 2018. Follow-up Spitzer photometry reveals that emission from the disc had begun to decrease by late 2019. Stochastic brightening events superimposed on the decline in brightness suggest the liberation of dust during collisional evolution of the circumstellar solids. A simple model is used to show that the observations are indeed consistent with ongoing collisions. Rare emission lines from circumstellar gas have been detected at this system, supporting the emerging picture of white dwarf debris discs as sites of collisional gas and dust production.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Precise Ages of Field Stars From White Dwarf Companions in Gaia DR2

We analyze 4\,050 wide binary star systems involving a white dwarf (WD) and usually a main sequence (MS) star, drawn from the large sample assembled by \citet[][hereafter, T20]{Tian_2020}. Using the modeling code BASE-9, we determine the system's ages, the WD progenitors' ZAMS masses, the extinction values ($A_V$), and the distance moduli. Discarding the cases with poor age convergences, we obtain ages for 3\,551 WDs, with a median age precision of $σ_τ/τ= 20$\%, and system ages typically in the range of 1-6 Gyr. We validated these ages against the very few known clusters and through cross-validation of 236 WD-WD binaries. Under the assumption that the components are co-eval in a binary system, this provides precise age constraints on the usually low-mass MS companions, mostly inaccessible by any other means.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Polarization measurements of the polluted white dwarf G29-38

We have made high precision polarimetric observations of the polluted white dwarf G29-38 with the HIgh Precision Polarimetric Instrument 2. The observations were made at two different observatories -- using the 8.1-m Gemini North Telescope and the 3.9-m Anglo AustralianTelescope -- and are consistent with each other. After allowing for a small amount of interstellar polarization, the intrinsic linear polarization of the system is found to be 275.3 +/- 31.9 parts-per-million at a position angle of 90.8 +/- 3.8 degrees in the SDSS g' band. We compare the observed polarization with the predictions of circumstellar disc models. The measured polarization is small in the context of the models we develop which only allows us to place limits on disc inclination and Bond albedo for optically thin disc geometries. In this case either the inclination is near face-on or the albedo is small -- likely in the range 0.05 to 0.15 -- which is in line with other debris disc measurements. A preliminary search for the effects of G29-38's pulsations in the polarization signal produced inconsistent results. This may be caused by beating effects, indicate a clumpy dust distribution, or be a consequence of measurement systematics.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Near-infrared variability in dusty white dwarfs: tracing the accretion of planetary material

The inwards scattering of planetesimals towards white dwarfs is expected to be a stochastic process with variability on human time-scales. The planetesimals tidally disrupt at the Roche radius, producing dusty debris detectable as excess infrared emission. When sufficiently close to the white dwarf, this debris sublimates and accretes on to the white dwarf and pollutes its atmosphere. Studying this infrared emission around polluted white dwarfs can reveal how this planetary material arrives in their atmospheres. We report a near-infrared monitoring campaign of 34 white dwarfs with infrared excesses with the aim to search for variability in the dust emission. Time series photometry of these white dwarfs from the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope (Wide Field Camera) in the J, H and K bands were obtained over baselines of up to three years. We find no statistically significant variation in the dust emission in all three near-infrared bands. Specifically, we can rule out variability at ~1.3% for the 13 white dwarfs brighter than 16th mag in K band, and at ~10% for the 32 white dwarfs brighter than 18th mag over time-scales of three years. Although to date two white dwarfs, SDSS J095904.69-020047.6 and WD 1226+110, have shown K band variability, in our sample we see no evidence of new K band variability at these levels. One interpretation is that the tidal disruption events which lead to large variabilities are rare, occur on short time-scales, and after a few years the white dwarfs return to being stable in the near-infrared.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2019

Bayesian Characterization of Main Sequence Binaries in the Old Open Cluster NGC 188

The binary fractions of open and globular clusters yield powerful constraints on their dynamical state and evolutionary history. We apply publicly available Bayesian analysis code to a $UBVRIJHK_{S}$ photometric catalog of the old open cluster NGC 188 to detect and characterize photometric binaries along the cluster main sequence. This technique has the advantage that it self-consistently handles photometric errors, missing data in various bandpasses, and star-by-star prior constraints on cluster membership. Simulations are used to verify uncertainties and quantify selection biases in our analysis, illustrating that among binaries with mass ratios >0.5, we recover the binary fraction to better than 7% in the mean, with no significant dependence on binary fraction and a mild dependence on assumed mass ratio distribution. Using our photometric catalog, we recover the majority (65%$\pm$11%) of spectroscopically identified main sequence binaries, including 8 of the 9 with spectroscopically measured mass ratios. Accounting for incompleteness and systematics, we derive a mass ratio distribution that rises toward lower mass ratios (within our $q >$0.5 analysis domain). We observe a raw binary fraction for solar-type main sequence stars with mass ratios $q >$0.5 of 42%$\pm$4%, independent of the assumed mass ratio distribution to within its uncertainties, consistent with literature values for old open clusters but significantly higher than the field solar-type binary fraction. We confirm that the binaries identified by our method are more concentrated than single stars, in agreement with previous studies, and we demonstrate that the binary nature of those candidates which remain unidentified spectroscopically is strongly supported by photometry from Gaia DR2.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling of Initial-Final Mass Relations Across Star Clusters

The initial-final mass relation (IFMR) of white dwarfs (WDs) plays an important role in stellar evolution. To derive precise estimates of IFMRs and explore how they may vary among star clusters, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that pools photo- metric data from multiple star clusters. After performing a simulation study to show the benefits of the Bayesian hierarchical model, we apply this model to five star clus- ters: the Hyades, M67, NGC 188, NGC 2168, and NGC 2477, leading to reasonable and consistent estimates of IFMRs for these clusters. We illustrate how a cluster-specific analysis of NGC 188 using its own photometric data can produce an unreasonable IFMR since its WDs have a narrow range of zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) masses. However, the Bayesian hierarchical model corrects the cluster-specific analysis by bor- rowing strength from other clusters, thus generating more reliable estimates of IFMR parameters. The data analysis presents the benefits of Bayesian hierarchical modelling over conventional cluster-specific methods, which motivates us to elaborate the pow- erful statistical techniques in this article.

astro-ph.SR↗