arXiv subjects

Ted von Hippel

Publications and source records attributed to Ted von Hippel.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2018

A Hierarchical Model for the Ages of Galactic Halo White Dwarfs

In astrophysics, we often aim to estimate one or more parameters for each member object in a population and study the distribution of the fitted parameters across the population. In this paper, we develop novel methods that allow us to take advantage of existing software designed for such case-by-case analyses to simultaneously fit parameters of both the individual objects and the parameters that quantify their distribution across the population. Our methods are based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling which is known to produce parameter estimators for the individual objects that are on average closer to their true values than estimators based on case-by-case analyses. We verify this in the context of estimating ages of Galactic halo white dwarfs (WDs) via a series of simulation studies. Finally, we deploy our new techniques on optical and near-infrared photometry of ten candidate halo WDs to obtain estimates of their ages along with an estimate of the mean age of Galactic halo WDs of [11.25, 12.96] Gyr. Although this sample is small, our technique lays the ground work for large-scale studies using data from the Gaia mission.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

The Ages of the Thin Disk, Thick Disk, and the Halo from Nearby White Dwarfs

We present a detailed analysis of the white dwarf luminosity functions derived from the local 40 pc sample and the deep proper motion catalog of Munn et al (2014, 2017). Many of the previous studies ignored the contribution of thick disk white dwarfs to the Galactic disk luminosity function, which results in an erronous age measurement. We demonstrate that the ratio of thick/thin disk white dwarfs is roughly 20\% in the local sample. Simultaneously fitting for both disk components, we derive ages of 6.8-7.0 Gyr for the thin disk and 8.7 $\pm$ 0.1 Gyr for the thick disk from the local 40 pc sample. Similarly, we derive ages of 7.4-8.2 Gyr for the thin disk and 9.5-9.9 Gyr for the thick disk from the deep proper motion catalog, which shows no evidence of a deviation from a constant star formation rate in the past 2.5 Gyr. We constrain the time difference between the onset of star formation in the thin disk and the thick disk to be $1.6^{+0.3}_{-0.4}$ Gyr. The faint end of the luminosity function for the halo white dwarfs is less constrained, resulting in an age estimate of $12.5^{+1.4}_{-3.4}$ Gyr for the Galactic inner halo. This is the first time ages for all three major components of the Galaxy are obtained from a sample of field white dwarfs that is large enough to contain significant numbers of disk and halo objects. The resultant ages agree reasonably well with the age estimates for the oldest open and globular clusters.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

A Deep Proper Motion Catalog Within the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Footprint. II. The White Dwarf Luminosity Function

A catalog of 8472 white dwarf (WD) candidates is presented, selected using reduced proper motions from the deep proper motion catalog of Munn et al. 2014. Candidates are selected in the magnitude range 16 < r < 21.5 over 980 square degrees, and 16 < r < 21.3 over an additional 1276 square degrees, within the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) imaging footprint. Distances, bolometric luminosities, and atmospheric compositions are derived by fitting SDSS ugriz photometry to pure hydrogen and helium model atmospheres (assuming surface gravities log g = 8). The disk white dwarf luminosity function (WDLF) is constructed using a sample of 2839 stars with 5.5 < M_bol < 17, with statistically significant numbers of stars cooler than the turnover in the luminosity function. The WDLF for the halo is also constructed, using a sample of 135 halo WDs with 5 < M_bol < 16. We find space densities of disk and halo WDs in the solar neighborhood of 5.5 +- 0.1 x 10^-3 pc^-3 and 3.5 +- 0.7 x 10^-5 pc^-3, respectively. We resolve the bump in the disk WDLF due to the onset of fully convective envelopes in WDs, and see indications of it in the halo WDLF as well.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

A Bayesian Analysis of the Ages of Four Open Clusters

In this paper we apply a Bayesian technique to determine the best fit of stellar evolution models to find the main sequence turn off age and other cluster parameters of four intermediate-age open clusters: NGC 2360, NGC 2477, NGC 2660, and NGC 3960. Our algorithm utilizes a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique to fit these various parameters, objectively finding the best-fit isochrone for each cluster. The result is a high-precision isochrone fit. We compare these results with the those of traditional "by-eye" isochrone fitting methods. By applying this Bayesian technique to NGC 2360, NGC 2477, NGC 2660, and NGC 3960, we determine the ages of these clusters to be 1.35 +/- 0.05, 1.02 +/- 0.02, 1.64 +/- 0.04, and 0.860 +/- 0.04 Gyr, respectively. The results of this paper continue our effort to determine cluster ages to higher precision than that offered by these traditional methods of isochrone fitting.

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arXiv2016

New Halo White Dwarf Candidates in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

We present optical spectroscopy and near-infrared photometry of 57 faint ($g= 19-22$) high proper motion white dwarfs identified through repeat imaging of $\approx3100$ square degrees of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey footprint by Munn et al. (2014). We use $ugriz$ and $JH$ photometry to perform a model atmosphere analysis, and identify ten ultracool white dwarfs with $T_{\rm eff}<4000$ K, including the coolest pure H atmosphere white dwarf currently known, J1657+2638, with $T_{\rm eff}= 3550 \pm 100$K. The majority of the objects with cooling ages larger than 9 Gyr display thick disc kinematics and constrain the age of the thick disc to $\geq11$ Gyr. There are four white dwarfs in our sample with large tangential velocities ($v_{tan} > 120$ km $s^{-1}$) and UVW velocities that are more consistent with the halo than the Galactic disc. For typical $0.6 M_{\odot}$ white dwarfs, the cooling ages for these halo candidates range from 2.3 to 8.5 Gyr. However, the total main-sequence + white dwarf cooling ages of these stars would be consistent with the Galactic halo if they are slightly undermassive. Given the magnitude limits of the current large scale surveys, many of the coolest and oldest white dwarfs remain undiscovered in the solar neighborhood, but upcoming surveys such as GAIA and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) should find many of these elusive thick disc and halo white dwarfs.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

The Power of Principled Bayesian Methods in the Study of Stellar Evolution

It takes years of effort employing the best telescopes and instruments to obtain high-quality stellar photometry, astrometry, and spectroscopy. Stellar evolution models contain the experience of lifetimes of theoretical calculations and testing. Yet most astronomers fit these valuable models to these precious datasets by eye. We show that a principled Bayesian approach to fitting models to stellar data yields substantially more information over a range of stellar astrophysics. We highlight advances in determining the ages of star clusters, mass ratios of binary stars, limitations in the accuracy of stellar models, post-main-sequence mass loss, and the ages of individual white dwarfs. We also outline a number of unsolved problems that would benefit from principled Bayesian analyses.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

Impact of Declining Proposal Success Rates on Scientific Productivity

Over the last decade proposal success rates in the fundamental sciences have dropped significantly. Astronomy and related fields funded by NASA and NSF are no exception. Data across agencies show that this is not principally the result of a decline in proposal merit (the proportion of proposals receiving high rankings is largely unchanged), nor of a shift in proposer demographics (seniority, gender, and institutional affiliation have all remained unchanged), nor of an increase (beyond inflation) in the average requested funding per proposal, nor of an increase in the number of proposals per investigator in any one year. Rather, the statistics are consistent with a scenario in which agency budgets for competed research are flat or decreasing in inflation-adjusted dollars, the overall population of investigators has grown, and a larger proportion of these investigators are resubmitting meritorious but unfunded proposals. This White Paper presents statistics which support this conclusion, as well as recent research on the time cost of proposal writing versus that of producing publishable results. We conclude that an aspirational proposal success rate of 30-35% would still provide a healthily competitive environment for researchers, would more fully utilize the scientific capacity of the community's facilities and missions, and provide relief to the funding agencies who face the logistics of ever-increasing volumes of proposals.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

To Apply or Not to Apply: A Survey Analysis of Grant Writing Costs and Benefits

We surveyed 113 astronomers and 82 psychologists active in applying for federally funded research on their grant-writing history between January, 2009 and November, 2012. We collected demographic data, effort levels, success rates, and perceived non-financial benefits from writing grant proposals. We find that the average proposal takes 116 PI hours and 55 CI hours to write; although time spent writing was not related to whether the grant was funded. Effort did translate into success, however, as academics who wrote more grants received more funding. Participants indicated modest non-monetary benefits from grant writing, with psychologists reporting a somewhat greater benefit overall than astronomers. These perceptions of non-financial benefits were unrelated to how many grants investigators applied for, the number of grants they received, or the amount of time they devoted to writing their proposals. We also explored the number of years an investigator can afford to apply unsuccessfully for research grants and our analyses suggest that funding rates below approximately 20%, commensurate with current NIH and NSF funding, are likely to drive at least half of the active researchers away from federally funded research. We conclude with recommendations and suggestions for individual investigators and for department heads.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Bayesian Investigation of Isochrone Consistency Using the Old Open Cluster NGC 188

This paper provides a detailed comparison of the differences in parameters derived for a star cluster from its color-magnitude diagrams depending on the filters and models used. We examine the consistency and reliability of fitting three widely-used stellar evolution models to fifteen combinations of optical and near-IR photometry for the old open cluster NGC 188. The optical filter response curves match those of the theoretical systems and are thus not the source of fit inconsistencies. NGC 188 is ideally suited to the present study thanks to a wide variety of high-quality photometry and available proper motions and radial velocities which enable us to remove non-cluster members and many binaries. Our Bayesian fitting technique yields inferred values of age, metallicity, distance modulus, and absorption as a function of the photometric band combinations and stellar models. We show that the historically-favored three band combinations of UBV and VRI can be meaningfully inconsistent with each other and with longer baseline datasets such as UBVRIJHKs. Differences among model sets can also be substantial. For instance, fitting Yi et al. (2001) and Dotter et al. (2008) models to UBVRIJHKs photometry for NGC 188 yields the following cluster parameters: age={5.78+ 0.03, 6.45+-0.04} Gyr, [Fe/H]={+0.125+-0.003, -0.077+-0.003} dex, m-M={11.441+-0.007, 11.525+-0.005} mag, and Av={0.162+-0.003, 0.236+-0.003} mag, respectively. Within the formal fitting errors, these two fits are substantially and statistically different. Such differences amongst fits using different filters and models are a cautionary tale regarding our current ability to fit star cluster color-magnitude diagrams. Additional modeling of this kind, with more models and star clusters, and future GAIA parallaxes are critical for isolating and quantifying the most relevant uncertainties in stellar evolutionary models.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

Bayesian Analysis for Stellar Evolution with Nine Parameters (BASE-9): User's Manual

BASE-9 is a Bayesian software suite that recovers star cluster and stellar parameters from photometry. BASE-9 is useful for analyzing single-age, single-metallicity star clusters, binaries, or single stars, and for simulating such systems. BASE-9 uses Markov chain Monte Carlo and brute-force numerical integration techniques to estimate the posterior probability distributions for the age, metallicity, helium abundance, distance modulus, and line-of-sight absorption for a cluster, and the mass, binary mass ratio, and cluster membership probability for every stellar object. BASE-9 is provided as open source code on a version-controlled web server. The executables are also available as Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud images. This manual provides potential users with an overview of BASE-9, including instructions for installation and use.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

A Deep Proper Motion Catalog Within The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Footprint

A new proper motion catalog is presented, combining the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) with second epoch observations in the r band within a portion of the SDSS imaging footprint. The new observations were obtained with the 90prime camera on the Steward Observatory Bok 90 inch telescope, and the Array Camera on the U.S. Naval Observatory, Flagstaff Station, 1.3 meter telescope. The catalog covers 1098 square degrees to r = 22.0, an additional 1521 square degrees to r = 20.9, plus a further 488 square degrees of lesser quality data. Statistical errors in the proper motions range from 5 mas/year at the bright end to 15 mas/year at the faint end, for a typical epoch difference of 6 years. Systematic errors are estimated to be roughly 1 mas/year for the Array Camera data, and as much as 2 - 4 mas/year for the 90prime data (though typically less). The catalog also includes a second epoch of r band photometry.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2013

A Bayesian Approach to Deriving Ages of Individual Field White Dwarfs

We apply a self-consistent and robust Bayesian statistical approach to determining the ages, distances, and ZAMS masses of 28 field DA white dwarfs with ages of approximately 4 to 8 Gyrs. Our technique requires only quality optical and near-IR photometry to derive ages with < 15% uncertainties, generally with little sensitivity to our choice of modern initial-final mass relation. We find that age, distance, and ZAMS mass are correlated in a manner that is too complex to be captured by traditional error propagation techniques. We further find that the posterior distributions of age are often asymmetric, indicating that the standard approach to deriving WD ages can yield misleading results.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2013

Moving Objects in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field

We identify proper motion objects in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field (UDF) using the optical data from the original UDF program in 2004 and the near-infrared data from the 128-orbit UDF 2012 campaign. There are 12 sources brighter than I=27 mag that display >3sigma significant proper motions. We do not find any proper motion objects fainter than this magnitude limit. Combining optical and near-infrared photometry, we model the spectral energy distribution of each point-source using stellar templates and state-of-the-art white dwarf models. For I<27 mag, we identify 23 stars with K0-M6 spectral types and two faint blue objects that are clearly old, thick disk white dwarfs. We measure a thick disk white dwarf space density of 0.1-1.7 E-3 per cubic parsec from these two objects. There are no halo white dwarfs in the UDF down to I=27 mag. Combining the Hubble Deep Field North, South, and the UDF data, we do not see any evidence for dark matter in the form of faint halo white dwarfs, and the observed population of white dwarfs can be explained with the standard Galactic models.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2011

The White Dwarf Age of NGC 2477

We present deep photometric observations of the open cluster NGC 2477 using HST/WFPC2. By identifying seven cluster white dwarf candidates, we present an analysis of the white dwarf age of this cluster, using both the traditional method of fitting isochrones to the white dwarf cooling sequence, and by employing a new Bayesian statistical technique that has been developed by our group. This new method performs an objective, simultaneous model fit of the cluster and stellar parameters (namely age, metallicity, distance, reddening, as well as individual stellar masses, mass ratios, and cluster membership) to the photometry. Based on this analysis, we measure a white dwarf age of 1.035 +/- 0.054 +/- 0.087 Gyr (uncertainties represent the goodness of model fits and discrepancy among models, respectively), in good agreement with the cluster's main sequence turnoff age. This work is part of our ongoing work to calibrate main sequence turnoff and white dwarf ages using open clusters, and to improve the precision of cluster ages to the ~5% level.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2010

A Detailed Model Atmosphere Analysis of Cool White Dwarfs in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

We present optical spectroscopy and near-infrared photometry of 126 cool white dwarfs in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Our sample includes high proper motion targets selected using the SDSS and USNO-B astrometry and a dozen previously known ultracool white dwarf candidates. Our optical spectroscopic observations demonstrate that a clean selection of large samples of cool white dwarfs in the SDSS (and the SkyMapper, Pan-STARRS, and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope datasets) is possible using a reduced proper motion diagram and a tangential velocity cut-off (depending on the proper motion accuracy) of 30 km/s. Our near-infrared observations reveal eight new stars with significant absorption. We use the optical and near-infrared photometry to perform a detailed model atmosphere analysis. More than 80% of the stars in our sample are consistent with either pure hydrogen or pure helium atmospheres. However, the eight stars with significant infrared absorption and the majority of the previously known ultracool white dwarf candidates are best explained with mixed hydrogen and helium atmosphere models. The age distribution of our sample is consistent with a Galactic disk age of 8 Gyr. A few ultracool white dwarfs may be as old as 12-13 Gyr, but our models have problems matching the spectral energy distributions of these objects. There are only two halo white dwarf candidates in our sample. However, trigonometric parallax observations are required for accurate mass and age determinations and to confirm their membership in the halo.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2010

Visitors from the Halo: 11 Gyr old White Dwarfs in the Solar Neighborhood

We report the discovery of three nearby old halo white dwarf candidates in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), including two stars in a common proper motion binary system. These candidates are selected from our 2800 square degree proper motion survey on the Bok and U.S. Naval Observatory Flagstaff Station 1.3m telescopes, and they display proper motions of 0.4-0.5 arcsec/yr. Follow-up MMT spectroscopy and near-infrared photometry demonstrate that all three objects are hydrogen-dominated atmosphere white dwarfs with Teff = 3700 - 4100 K. For average mass white dwarfs, these temperature estimates correspond to cooling ages of 9-10 Gyr, distances of 70-80 pc, and tangential velocities of 140-200 km/s. Based on the UVW space velocities, we conclude that they most likely belong to the halo. Furthermore, the combined main-sequence and white dwarf cooling ages are 10-11 Gyr. Along with SDSS J1102+4113, they are the oldest field white dwarfs currently known. These three stars represent only a small fraction of the halo white dwarf candidates in our proper motion survey, and they demonstrate that deep imaging surveys like the Pan-STARRS and Large Synoptic Survey Telescope should find many old thick disk and halo white dwarfs that can be used to constrain the age of the Galactic thick disk and halo.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2009

Statistical analysis of stellar evolution

Color-Magnitude Diagrams (CMDs) are plots that compare the magnitudes (luminosities) of stars in different wavelengths of light (colors). High nonlinear correlations among the mass, color, and surface temperature of newly formed stars induce a long narrow curved point cloud in a CMD known as the main sequence. Aging stars form new CMD groups of red giants and white dwarfs. The physical processes that govern this evolution can be described with mathematical models and explored using complex computer models. These calculations are designed to predict the plotted magnitudes as a function of parameters of scientific interest, such as stellar age, mass, and metallicity. Here, we describe how we use the computer models as a component of a complex likelihood function in a Bayesian analysis that requires sophisticated computing, corrects for contamination of the data by field stars, accounts for complications caused by unresolved binary-star systems, and aims to compare competing physics-based computer models of stellar evolution.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2009

Spitzer Observations of the Oldest White Dwarfs in the Solar Neighborhood

We present Spitzer 5-15 micron spectroscopy of one cool white dwarf and 3.6-8 micron photometry of 51 cool white dwarfs with T_eff < 6000 K. The majority of our targets have accurate BVRIJHK photometry and trigonometric parallax measurements available, which enables us to perform a detailed model atmosphere analysis using their optical, near- and mid-infrared photometry with state- of-the-art model atmospheres. We demonstrate that the optical and infrared spectral energy distributions of cool white dwarfs are well reproduced by our grid of models. Our best fit models are consistent with the observations within 5% in all filters except the IRAC 8 micron band, which has the lowest signal- to-noise ratio photometry. Excluding the ultracool white dwarfs, none of the stars in our sample show significant mid-infrared flux deficits or excesses. The non-detection of mid-infrared excess flux around our 2-9 Gyr old targets constrain the fraction of cool white dwarfs with warm debris disks to 0.8% (+1.5% -0.8%).

astro-ph.SR↗