arXiv subjects

Thomas G. Dietterich

Publications and source records attributed to Thomas G. Dietterich.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

International AI Safety Report 2026

The International AI Safety Report 2026 synthesises the current scientific evidence on the capabilities, emerging risks, and safety of general-purpose AI systems. The report series was mandated by the nations attending the AI Safety Summit in Bletchley, UK. 29 nations, the UN, the OECD, and the EU each nominated a representative to the report's Expert Advisory Panel. Over 100 AI experts contributed, representing diverse perspectives and disciplines. Led by the Report's Chair, these independent experts collectively had full discretion over the report's content.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

Reinforcement Learning with Exogenous States and Rewards

Exogenous state variables and rewards can slow reinforcement learning by injecting uncontrolled variation into the reward signal. This paper formalizes exogenous state variables and rewards and shows that if the reward function decomposes additively into endogenous and exogenous components, the MDP can be decomposed into an exogenous Markov Reward Process (based on the exogenous reward) and an endogenous Markov Decision Process (optimizing the endogenous reward). Any optimal policy for the endogenous MDP is also an optimal policy for the original MDP, but because the endogenous reward typically has reduced variance, the endogenous MDP is easier to solve. We study settings where the decomposition of the state space into exogenous and endogenous state spaces is not given but must be discovered. The paper introduces and proves correctness of algorithms for discovering the exogenous and endogenous subspaces of the state space when they are mixed through linear combination. These algorithms can be applied during reinforcement learning to discover the exogenous subspace, remove the exogenous reward, and focus reinforcement learning on the endogenous MDP. Experiments on a variety of challenging synthetic MDPs show that these methods, applied online, discover large exogenous state spaces and produce substantial speedups in reinforcement learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

International AI Safety Report 2025: Second Key Update: Technical Safeguards and Risk Management

This second update to the 2025 International AI Safety Report assesses new developments in general-purpose AI risk management over the past year. It examines how researchers, public institutions, and AI developers are approaching risk management for general-purpose AI. In recent months, for example, three leading AI developers applied enhanced safeguards to their new models, as their internal pre-deployment testing could not rule out the possibility that these models could be misused to help create biological weapons. Beyond specific precautionary measures, there have been a range of other advances in techniques for making AI models and systems more reliable and resistant to misuse. These include new approaches in adversarial training, data curation, and monitoring systems. In parallel, institutional frameworks that operationalise and formalise these technical capabilities are starting to emerge: the number of companies publishing Frontier AI Safety Frameworks more than doubled in 2025, and governments and international organisations have established a small number of governance frameworks for general-purpose AI, focusing largely on transparency and risk assessment.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

International AI Safety Report 2025: First Key Update: Capabilities and Risk Implications

Since the publication of the first International AI Safety Report, AI capabilities have continued to improve across key domains. New training techniques that teach AI systems to reason step-by-step and inference-time enhancements have primarily driven these advances, rather than simply training larger models. As a result, general-purpose AI systems can solve more complex problems in a range of domains, from scientific research to software development. Their performance on benchmarks that measure performance in coding, mathematics, and answering expert-level science questions has continued to improve, though reliability challenges persist, with systems excelling on some tasks while failing completely on others. These capability improvements also have implications for multiple risks, including risks from biological weapons and cyber attacks. Finally, they pose new challenges for monitoring and controllability. This update examines how AI capabilities have improved since the first Report, then focuses on key risk areas where substantial new evidence warrants updated assessments.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

International Scientific Report on the Safety of Advanced AI (Interim Report)

This is the interim publication of the first International Scientific Report on the Safety of Advanced AI. The report synthesises the scientific understanding of general-purpose AI -- AI that can perform a wide variety of tasks -- with a focus on understanding and managing its risks. A diverse group of 75 AI experts contributed to this report, including an international Expert Advisory Panel nominated by 30 countries, the EU, and the UN. Led by the Chair, these independent experts collectively had full discretion over the report's content. The final report is available at arXiv:2501.17805

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

International AI Safety Report

The first International AI Safety Report comprehensively synthesizes the current evidence on the capabilities, risks, and safety of advanced AI systems. The report was mandated by the nations attending the AI Safety Summit in Bletchley, UK. Thirty nations, the UN, the OECD, and the EU each nominated a representative to the report's Expert Advisory Panel. A total of 100 AI experts contributed, representing diverse perspectives and disciplines. Led by the report's Chair, these independent experts collectively had full discretion over the report's content.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Will My Robot Achieve My Goals? Predicting the Probability that an MDP Policy Reaches a User-Specified Behavior Target

As an autonomous system performs a task, it should maintain a calibrated estimate of the probability that it will achieve the user's goal. If that probability falls below some desired level, it should alert the user so that appropriate interventions can be made. This paper considers settings where the user's goal is specified as a target interval for a real-valued performance summary, such as the cumulative reward, measured at a fixed horizon $H$. At each time $t \in \{0, \ldots, H-1\}$, our method produces a calibrated estimate of the probability that the final cumulative reward will fall within a user-specified target interval $[y^-,y^+].$ Using this estimate, the autonomous system can raise an alarm if the probability drops below a specified threshold. We compute the probability estimates by inverting conformal prediction. Our starting point is the Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) method of Romano et al., which applies split-conformal prediction to the results of quantile regression. CQR is not invertible, but by using the conditional cumulative distribution function (CDF) as the non-conformity measure, we show how to obtain an invertible modification that we call Probability-space Conformalized Quantile Regression (PCQR). Like CQR, PCQR produces well-calibrated conditional prediction intervals with finite-sample marginal guarantees. By inverting PCQR, we obtain guarantees for the probability that the cumulative reward of an autonomous system will fall below a threshold sampled from the marginal distribution of the response variable (i.e., a calibrated CDF estimate) that we employ to predict coverage probabilities for user-specified target intervals. Experiments on two domains confirm that these probabilities are well-calibrated.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Hidden Heterogeneity: When to Choose Similarity-Based Calibration

Trustworthy classifiers are essential to the adoption of machine learning predictions in many real-world settings. The predicted probability of possible outcomes can inform high-stakes decision making, particularly when assessing the expected value of alternative decisions or the risk of bad outcomes. These decisions require well-calibrated probabilities, not just the correct prediction of the most likely class. Black-box classifier calibration methods can improve the reliability of a classifier's output without requiring retraining. However, these methods are unable to detect subpopulations where calibration could also improve prediction accuracy. Such subpopulations are said to exhibit "hidden heterogeneity" (HH), because the original classifier did not detect them. This paper proposes a quantitative measure for HH. It also introduces two similarity-weighted calibration methods that can address HH by adapting locally to each test item: SWC weights the calibration set by similarity to the test item, and SWC-HH explicitly incorporates hidden heterogeneity to filter the calibration set. Experiments show that the improvements in calibration achieved by similarity-based calibration methods correlate with the amount of HH present and, given sufficient calibration data, generally exceed calibration achieved by global methods. HH can therefore serve as a useful diagnostic tool for identifying when local calibration methods would be beneficial.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

The Familiarity Hypothesis: Explaining the Behavior of Deep Open Set Methods

In many object recognition applications, the set of possible categories is an open set, and the deployed recognition system will encounter novel objects belonging to categories unseen during training. Detecting such "novel category" objects is usually formulated as an anomaly detection problem. Anomaly detection algorithms for feature-vector data identify anomalies as outliers, but outlier detection has not worked well in deep learning. Instead, methods based on the computed logits of visual object classifiers give state-of-the-art performance. This paper proposes the Familiarity Hypothesis that these methods succeed because they are detecting the absence of familiar learned features rather than the presence of novelty. This distinction is important, because familiarity-based detection will fail in many situations where novelty is present. For example when an image contains both a novel object and a familiar one, the familiarity score will be high, so the novel object will not be noticed. The paper reviews evidence from the literature and presents additional evidence from our own experiments that provide strong support for this hypothesis. The paper concludes with a discussion of whether familiarity-based detection is an inevitable consequence of representation learning.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Conformal Prediction Intervals for Markov Decision Process Trajectories

Before delegating a task to an autonomous system, a human operator may want a guarantee about the behavior of the system. This paper extends previous work on conformal prediction for functional data and conformalized quantile regression to provide conformal prediction intervals over the future behavior of an autonomous system executing a fixed control policy on a Markov Decision Process (MDP). The prediction intervals are constructed by applying conformal corrections to prediction intervals computed by quantile regression. The resulting intervals guarantee that with probability $1-δ$ the observed trajectory will lie inside the prediction interval, where the probability is computed with respect to the starting state distribution and the stochasticity of the MDP. The method is illustrated on MDPs for invasive species management and StarCraft2 battles.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Confidence Calibration for Domain Generalization under Covariate Shift

Existing calibration algorithms address the problem of covariate shift via unsupervised domain adaptation. However, these methods suffer from the following limitations: 1) they require unlabeled data from the target domain, which may not be available at the stage of calibration in real-world applications and 2) their performance depends heavily on the disparity between the distributions of the source and target domains. To address these two limitations, we present novel calibration solutions via domain generalization. Our core idea is to leverage multiple calibration domains to reduce the effective distribution disparity between the target and calibration domains for improved calibration transfer without needing any data from the target domain. We provide theoretical justification and empirical experimental results to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithms. Compared against state-of-the-art calibration methods designed for domain adaptation, we observe a decrease of 8.86 percentage points in expected calibration error or, equivalently, an increase of 35 percentage points in improvement ratio for multi-class classification on the Office-Home dataset.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Deep Convolution for Irregularly Sampled Temporal Point Clouds

We consider the problem of modeling the dynamics of continuous spatial-temporal processes represented by irregular samples through both space and time. Such processes occur in sensor networks, citizen science, multi-robot systems, and many others. We propose a new deep model that is able to directly learn and predict over this irregularly sampled data, without voxelization, by leveraging a recent convolutional architecture for static point clouds. The model also easily incorporates the notion of multiple entities in the process. In particular, the model can flexibly answer prediction queries about arbitrary space-time points for different entities regardless of the distribution of the training or test-time data. We present experiments on real-world weather station data and battles between large armies in StarCraft II. The results demonstrate the model's flexibility in answering a variety of query types and demonstrate improved performance and efficiency compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

A Unifying Review of Deep and Shallow Anomaly Detection

Deep learning approaches to anomaly detection have recently improved the state of the art in detection performance on complex datasets such as large collections of images or text. These results have sparked a renewed interest in the anomaly detection problem and led to the introduction of a great variety of new methods. With the emergence of numerous such methods, including approaches based on generative models, one-class classification, and reconstruction, there is a growing need to bring methods of this field into a systematic and unified perspective. In this review we aim to identify the common underlying principles as well as the assumptions that are often made implicitly by various methods. In particular, we draw connections between classic 'shallow' and novel deep approaches and show how this relation might cross-fertilize or extend both directions. We further provide an empirical assessment of major existing methods that is enriched by the use of recent explainability techniques, and present specific worked-through examples together with practical advice. Finally, we outline critical open challenges and identify specific paths for future research in anomaly detection.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Three-quarter Sibling Regression for Denoising Observational Data

Many ecological studies and conservation policies are based on field observations of species, which can be affected by systematic variability introduced by the observation process. A recently introduced causal modeling technique called 'half-sibling regression' can detect and correct for systematic errors in measurements of multiple independent random variables. However, it will remove intrinsic variability if the variables are dependent, and therefore does not apply to many situations, including modeling of species counts that are controlled by common causes. We present a technique called 'three-quarter sibling regression' to partially overcome this limitation. It can filter the effect of systematic noise when the latent variables have observed common causes. We provide theoretical justification of this approach, demonstrate its effectiveness on synthetic data, and show that it reduces systematic detection variability due to moon brightness in moth surveys.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

Benchmarking Neural Network Robustness to Common Corruptions and Surface Variations

In this paper we establish rigorous benchmarks for image classifier robustness. Our first benchmark, ImageNet-C, standardizes and expands the corruption robustness topic, while showing which classifiers are preferable in safety-critical applications. Unlike recent robustness research, this benchmark evaluates performance on commonplace corruptions not worst-case adversarial corruptions. We find that there are negligible changes in relative corruption robustness from AlexNet to ResNet classifiers, and we discover ways to enhance corruption robustness. Then we propose a new dataset called Icons-50 which opens research on a new kind of robustness, surface variation robustness. With this dataset we evaluate the frailty of classifiers on new styles of known objects and unexpected instances of known classes. We also demonstrate two methods that improve surface variation robustness. Together our benchmarks may aid future work toward networks that learn fundamental class structure and also robustly generalize.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Robust Artificial Intelligence and Robust Human Organizations

Every AI system is deployed by a human organization. In high risk applications, the combined human plus AI system must function as a high-reliability organization in order to avoid catastrophic errors. This short note reviews the properties of high-reliability organizations and draws implications for the development of AI technology and the safe application of that technology.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2018

Learning Scripts as Hidden Markov Models

Scripts have been proposed to model the stereotypical event sequences found in narratives. They can be applied to make a variety of inferences including filling gaps in the narratives and resolving ambiguous references. This paper proposes the first formal framework for scripts based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). Our framework supports robust inference and learning algorithms, which are lacking in previous clustering models. We develop an algorithm for structure and parameter learning based on Expectation Maximization and evaluate it on a number of natural datasets. The results show that our algorithm is superior to several informed baselines for predicting missing events in partial observation sequences.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2018

Anomaly Detection in the Presence of Missing Values

Standard methods for anomaly detection assume that all features are observed at both learning time and prediction time. Such methods cannot process data containing missing values. This paper studies five strategies for handling missing values in test queries: (a) mean imputation, (b) MAP imputation, (c) reduction (reduced-dimension anomaly detectors via feature bagging), (d) marginalization (for density estimators only), and (e) proportional distribution (for tree-based methods only). Our analysis suggests that MAP imputation and proportional distribution should give better results than mean imputation, reduction, and marginalization. These hypotheses are largely confirmed by experimental studies on synthetic data and on anomaly detection benchmark data sets using the Isolation Forest (IF), LODA, and EGMM anomaly detection algorithms. However, marginalization worked surprisingly well for EGMM, and there are exceptions where reduction works well on some benchmark problems. We recommend proportional distribution for IF, MAP imputation for LODA, and marginalization for EGMM.

cs.LG↗